* Politico…
House Democrats, facing strong political headwinds, are shifting millions of dollars of TV advertising away from 2014 challengers in order to prop up some of their most vulnerable incumbents.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is scaling back on planned commercial airtime in 11 Republican-held districts, the group said Monday. Those resources will be used to help four Democratic lawmakers facing treacherous reelection campaigns and two other candidates in districts that Democrats are trying to win from Republicans. […]
As part of the plan, Democrats will cancel planned TV advertising in a group of districts held by Republican lawmakers, all of which are now considered essentially out of reach. They include… the Illinois district of Rep. Rodney Davis […]
In exchange, Democrats will increase financial support for four party incumbents: Illinois Reps. Brad Schneider and Bill Enyart… Each is locked in a tight race against a Republican challenger.
I never understood why Callis allowed herself to be talked into this race, unless maybe she wants to try again in two years with Hillary on the ticket.
- Formerly Known As... - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 2:41 pm:
The axe finally falls.
She will likely land on her feet, but it is a shame she gave up her judicial robes to run in this one.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 2:48 pm:
My opinion is that her decision to run was based on good information available at the time she made it.
The change here was Congressman Davis. He ended up showing that he knows how to campaign, especially within the Congressional cycle. This was his first reelection rodeo and he clearly demonstrated that he is not a rodeo clown.
The 2012 election did not show him at his strongest. He looked weak as a consequence. This year should end any assumption that he doesn’t know how to get elected, and that 2012 was just a lucky break for him.
When Callis decided to challenge Davis, there were a number of factors favoring the challenge. Those factors dissipated as the President lost favor within the electorate significantly enough to offset the opportunities Callis was convinced was there and would strengthen during 2014.
Callis ran a fine campaign for a first timer. She shouldn’t be faulted for the national shift which occurred between her decision to run, and next month.
- Team Sleep - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 2:50 pm:
Rich -
Even then, it makes no sense. From a superficial standpoint, she would have earned more as Chief Judge in Madison County as she would have earned a Congressperson (especially without the hassle of renting or buying a place in D.C.). From a career and judicial standpoint, she is a good-to-great candidate for Appellate Court or even Supreme Court (should Justice Karmeier decide to retire before his retention term ends and there be an opening). I just cannot figure this one out.
Sometimes it is truly better to “sit one out”, as it were, then to expend the time and resources to recruit & train a candidate and then attempt to get him or her elected. The national Dems knew they were going to have to defend a handful of seats in Illinois, and the moneys spent here could have easily been used in a much closer race (see Dold-Schneider). In the end it is a judgment call - one I think the DCCC got way wrong.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 2:51 pm:
Lets recall that Callis wasn’t the only one convinced that Davis could be defeated. So did Erika Harold, who spent a considerable time and money running against the supposedly weak Davis this year too.
How well would have Callis ran against Harold? Back when these ladies were sold on the idea that Davis could be defeated, there were more than a few election veterans convinced that we would be seeing an election between these two ladies.
- Precinct Captain - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 2:54 pm:
VanillaMan, no one was sold on the idea that Davis was going to be toppled by Erika Harold except for people drinking that water in the Champaign County GOP.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 2:55 pm:
The national mood is so strong towards the GOP, that congressional races between candidates in 2012 have a chance to switch in 2014. I don’t believe anyone imagined the GOP being as strong as it has been this year back in 2013.
It is quite possible for three Congressional seats in Illinois flip back to the GOP next month, two of them to former congressmen who lost in 2012.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 2:56 pm:
So you are saying that if Harold defeated Davis, as many had expected, Callis would be planning a move to DC? So, do I.
Harold, and now Callis, has discovered that Davis was no push-over.
- chad - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 2:57 pm:
She greatly underestimated the goodwill and personal connectiveness Davis has in the territory. After another two years of Shimkus/Tim Johnson-scale constitutent services, and it will be tough to dislodge him. Even with Hillary on the ticket.
- LincolnLounger - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:01 pm:
Silly for DCCC to go in 10 days ago and waste all that money on television for a candidate on life support.
DCCC and national Dems now may fear a genuine wave.
It’s a bad day for Big Debbie.
- Anyonymous77 - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:01 pm:
Manar is the wildcard in that district for 2016.
- Dirty Red - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:03 pm:
= Manar is the wildcard in that district for 2016. =
Still true if Gill pulls the trigger?
- A guy... - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:04 pm:
===I never understood why Callis allowed herself to be talked into this race, unless maybe she wants to try again in two years with Hillary on the ticket.===
That would explain the vigorous race.
- ChrisB - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:05 pm:
Well, obviously, if the GOP had nominated Erika Harris, the Dems would have dropped Callis around Labor Day.
/am I doing it right?
- Slow Down - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:06 pm:
The interesting question to me is whether running this campaign is helpful to Callis if she runs again in two years? In other words, does the stench of losing (perhaps badly) outweigh the growth in name recognition and experience campaigning?
- Precinct Captain - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:09 pm:
==- ChrisB - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:05 pm:==
That late? It was probably going to be Independence Day.
- SonofSuperAbe2014 - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:19 pm:
Bad days ahead for Big Debbie and Don Gerard
- One of Three Puppets - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:21 pm:
Gill? HA. Seeing him run for the 5th time for congress and lose would be worth watching! I would pay money to attend his election party in 2016.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:24 pm:
===Gill? HA. Seeing him run for the 5th time for congress and lose would be worth watching===
Yep, he’ll lose again, but if he runs as an indy, so will the Democrat.
- Team Sleep - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:24 pm:
Rich -
I had to share this passage from the Politico story. You and I are definitely in agreement when it comes to our disdain for D.C. streak, but I found this statement to be very refreshing:
“In the face of millions of dollars from outside Republican groups aggressively pouring into our races, House Democrats are fortifying our vulnerable incumbents and focusing in on top-tier competitive races,” said Emily Bittner, a DCCC spokeswoman.
“In the face of millions of dollars from outside Republican groups aggressively pouring into our races, House Democrats are fortifying our vulnerable incumbents and focusing in on top-tier competitive races,” said Emily Bittner, a DCCC spokeswoman.
- Voice of Reason - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:28 pm:
Another subpar candidate recruitment by Durbin. 2012 was the time to pick up this seat - not 2014. I really like Durbin, but his political judgment is questionable. Callis was toast from the minute she announced.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:41 pm:
My point is that neither Harold nor Callis is a fool, and Davis turned out to be stronger than oppositional pundits believed a year ago.
Don’t blame his opponents, Davis is good.
- NW Illinois Dem - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:43 pm:
I suspect it was the Durbin folks chance to repeat their Cheri Bustos success. Recruit a woman in a swing downstate district and roll the dice.
- A guy... - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 3:57 pm:
Except in this case, they never really rolled the dice, did they?
- Watchdog - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 4:07 pm:
What’s outside spending for Dold look like?
- walker - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 4:19 pm:
If Dold wins, do we bring back Seals for the Hillary wave?
- wordslinger - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 4:25 pm:
–The national mood is so strong towards the GOP, that congressional races between candidates in 2012 have a chance to switch in 2014. I don’t believe anyone imagined the GOP being as strong as it has been this year back in 2013.==
Except anyone who knew it was an off-presidential year with a Democratic president in his second term.
Clinton in ‘98 is the only president to see his party gain seats in a second-term off-year election.
FDR in ‘34 and W in ‘02 did it in their first terms.
- Obvious - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 4:40 pm:
She will return and run for the Appellate Court. She is vastly more well known in that 37 county district than she was previously and should win easily in 2016.
- BackDownSouth - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 4:46 pm:
Be interesting to see if the money the move to Enyart will be used for more “rant” ads or if they will push a new message.
- Filmmaker Professor - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 5:11 pm:
I’m not convinced Davis is so strong. Did Callis even campaign? ever? I live in Champaign, and I can’t recall her campaigning here at all. I don’t think she gave this any effort at all.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 5:29 pm:
You never know until you try, folks.
I give Davis credit for excelling at retail politics, but you never know how he is going to do until you throw the ball.
This is a very large district that really favors a younger candidate. Callis you can scratch, IHMO.
- John Boch - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 5:37 pm:
So, are Callis donors feeling any sense of donor’s remorse yet?
She’ll need Davis to get hit by a bus at this point to even come close.
John
- Anon - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 5:39 pm:
Bring on Manar v. Davis in ‘16. That would be one heck of a contest. Even with a liberal voting record, Manar runs far ahead of other Democrats in his district and is liked by even the most conservative republicans I know. Davis is well liked by democrats and has established himself. Both have incredible campaign organizations. Both were once staffers and know how to win. I’d pay to see it.
- Toure's Latte - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 6:07 pm:
Callis was a terrible judge and an even worse candidate to run against an experienced Davis.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 7:00 pm:
Dear Fans:
In case you haven’t noticed, I have a race.
If you could knock on doors or send checks, I’d sure appreciate it.
BTW, floating my name for Congress ain’t helpin’.
Sincerely,
Andy
PS. Go Cards!
- Carl Nyberg - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 7:58 pm:
Why would Dems agree to Callis being the nominee in two years?
- Down Here - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 9:27 pm:
Callis had been a judge since she was about 30. She was at or near 50 and it was time for a new challenge. A year ago Davis looked beatable and the GOP brand looked very beatable. Plus, Callis had the DCCC whispering all kinds of encouragement and promises in her ear. So why shouldn’t she take a shot? She will be back on the bench in Madison County in no time and in ‘16 there is a vacancy on the appellate bench she can run for. No way does she run for Congress again, Hillary or not on the ticket.
And if I was Manar, why waste time with a Congressional race against Davis who will be even more well-funded and experienced than this cycle. Manar should take a shot at Mark Kirk’s spot.It should be a great year for the Democratic brand after 2 years of complete GOP control of Congress and the resulting complete gridlock. Kirk will definitely be primaried and probably beaten. Manar’s buddy Durbin, although perhaps in the minority, will still be able to help raise big money for him especially in Chicago. Manar’s “liberal” voting record will help him in Chicago as will Manar’s old boss Cullerton while he can run as a “downstater”.
- Champaign Native - Monday, Oct 6, 14 @ 10:34 pm:
I supported George Gollin in the primary. I’m not saying he would be much closer, but her could NOT have ran a worse campaign than Callis has. She has generated no excitement and has rarely been seen around the district. Don’t underestimate people’s desire for people with different backgrounds in Congress.