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Reader comments closed until Tuesday
Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Barton and I are going to take a long weekend. Many thanks to Bill Brady for conceding today and letting us all get a much-needed break. I think I could sleep for three days. Before I go, I want to thank this blog’s readers and commenters for an enjoyable, crazy fun election season. But I want to particularly thank my subscribers for their continued support. Times are tough, and some of you can’t afford to renew, but most of you are hanging in there, as you’ve done for many a year. I can’t thank you enough, and I hope to continue improving every day. * Anyway, enough of this “I love you, man!” stuff. I need a nap. These guys are playing their first Chicago gig at the Double Door on Tuesday. Check them out…
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*** UPDATED x1 *** Quinn victory press conference live-blog and video
Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * ABC7 will broadcast it live. I’ll post the embedded video at 3:30, when the festivities are set to begin. * 3:27 pm - The feed is now hot, so here’s the embed. If you have any problems with ABC7’s feed, you can click here to watch WGN. * 3:33 pm - WGN just reported that the presser is running 10-20 minutes late. * While we’re waiting for the governor, House Republican Leader Tom Cross just issued a statement…
* 3:58 pm - Almost a half hour late. Four more years, campers. Oy. *** 3:59 pm *** And we’re starting… “We may have strong differences on policy issues, but we’re all Americans and Illinoisans.” Said being elected was a “tremendous privilege.” “We were often underestimated, but not by me.” Said he believes in grassroots politics. Education, he said, is the “key to opportunity for everyone.” “My job is to put Illinois to work.” Mentioned education again and said he wants to maintain integrity in government. Said those were his three top goals. He used Manny’s as a microcosm of Illinois. Diverse clientele where everybody seems to get along. “I could tell last week that there was a surge everywhere I went.” “The people call the shots, not the experts, not the pollsters and not the insiders.” “It’s never easy to concede. I’ve not won every election and when you don’t win it’s really hard.” Quinn said he will put together a veto session agenda for the “budget situation” and the “jobs situation.” Asks that legislators in both parties in both chambers “not be timid” on reform. Said he thinks AllKids will be in place “as long as I’m around.” “You know, when you’re down 13 points, nobody’s throwing rosebuds at you.” Best line of the day. Said he sees a tax increase as “revenue investments in people.” … “Investing in education pays great dividends.” Said the Hispanic vote was “very, very important… and really made a big difference.” “We have a lot of work to do in Illinois and I’m ready to do it.” * End. …Adding… Bill Brady’s concession letter to supporters is here. *** UPDATE *** Video…
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A little mid-afternoon diversion - Pat Quinn busts a move
Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Simon Edelman was producing videos for Gov. Pat Quinn’s campaign in complete obscurity until the readers of this blog started taking notice in the early summer of 2009. His recent “Glee” video now has over 150,000 views. Our young man has grown up right before our eyes. Simon sent me this e-mail the other day and I got so busy that I forgot to post it…
* Simon’s note inspired me to make another Quinn mashup video. This one’s for Simon, Gov. Quinn and all the people who worked so hard to elect the governor. I figure they’ve earned it. Some of you may disagree with the sentiment expressed, but, hey, it’s over, man. It’s finally over. So get up and dance with Pat… Gimme the bridge now
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Brady’s concession speech live blog - Raw video
Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * You can click here to listen or watch the live video. * 1:29 pm - The video feed is now hot. * 1:30 pm - Two minute warning. Jason Plummer will speak first, followed by Sen. Bill Brady. * 1:32 pm - If you’re having trouble with the ABC7 feed, CBS2 also has a live feed. * 1:33 pm - Plummer vowed to work with the lt. governor and the governor any way he could. He choked up a bit when thanking his staff. * 1:34 pm - Brady is now speaking. “This election, this campaign for us was all about a path to bringing jobs” to the people of Illinois. “We thank the voters of Illinois, the millions of voters who were willing to listen to us.” “I just a few minutes ago got off the phone with Gov. Quinn, and I congratulated him on his victory, as he deserved.” Brady said he also offered to work with Gov. Quinn. Sen. Brady praised his wife Nancy, “who could not do a better job.” “Jason and I have truly been blessed” with their hard-working staff. “But it’s the people of Illinois that we truly are grateful to.” Brady said that after a “bitter election,” it was time to work together to make the state as great as it can be. * 1:40 pm - End of remarks. * 1:41 pm - He’s going to take questions from the media. Said the governor had invited him to Manny’s Deli to talk. Said the big GOP congresional wins show that the people want their leaders to work together in a bipartisan manner. Asked about his campaign strategy, he said he’d leave it to the pundits to decide whether it was the right one or not. He wouldn’t rule any further run out right now. “Life’s too short to rule anything out.” Mrs. Brady said something at the same time, but I didn’t catch it. Did anyone else hear what she said? * 1:44 pm - End of questions. Classy, reserved, firm, yet not defiant. A decent job by a decent man. * 2:12 pm - Sun-Times…
* 2:18 pm - Gov. Quinn is holding a 3:30 presser. I’ll look around for live audio/video. Help me if you can. I still have to finish my syndicated newspaper column. If you missed Brady’s speech, here is the raw video… * At the end, Brady is asked whether he might run again. “Third time’s a charm?” a reporter asked. Brady said that life’s too short to rule anything out. Mrs. Brady, however, shook her head, smiled and said what sounded like “We’re not going to entertain that right now.” I don’t blame her. That was a grueling campaign. Bill’s basically been running for governor for the past six years.
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A look ahead
Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Gov. Pat Quinn loves him some Michael Sneed, and he gave her an exclusive interview for today’s paper…
From yesterday’s Sneed…
It wasn’t just Giannoulias, however. Quinn has been upset for months that legislative Democrats with anything close to a tough race refused to go anywhere near him. Considering how badly Quinn was beaten Downstate, that’s quite understandable. And while he won the Cook County suburbs, he was never anywhere near 50 percent, so he was seen as a needless drag. Legislative leaders prefer to position their candidates in isolation during years like this. But Quinn thought that meant they despised him. It wasn’t personal, it was just business. * For instance, Brady had some coattails in Decatur…
Flider wanted nothing to do with Quinn during the campaign. I can’t hardly blame him. * And check this out…
* Gov. Quinn won on a platform of moderate cuts, “strategic” borrowing and raising taxes. But a key component of that plan stalled again yesterday in the Senate…
* And lawmakers don’t appear to love any of the options…
* And the general feeling under the Statehouse dome yesterday was similar to this longtime subscriber’s, who wrote…
Yes, it is. Without a doubt.
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Question of the day
Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * I seem to be using him a lot today, but Zorn has posted a Pat Quinn quote…
Well, he did run on a tax increase platform during a tea party (TEA=Taxed Enough Already) year and won. That’s certainly something. Yet, he hardly scored a resounding win. * The Question: Does Gov. Quinn have a mandate? If not, explain. If so, to do what?
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Brady will bow out at 1:30
Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * I’ll see what I can do about finding some audio and video. WJBC Radio in Bloomington was a good source the other day. Check back at 1:30. * Pantagraph…
* Tribune…
* AP…
…Adding… ABC7 will carry it live. Thanks to a commenter for finding that one.
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BRADY TO HOLD PRESSER AT 1:30
Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller Posted by Barton Lorimor More gubernatorial drama…
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Newspaper wants to abolish one person, one vote in Illinois
Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * The Southern Illinoisan’s editorial board has lost its collective mind…
Yeah. OK. Let’s abandon “One person, one vote.” Right. That brilliant idea wouldn’t just meet “fierce resistance” from Chicago. Judges would laugh it out of court. Seriously, pot didn’t just secretly become legal in Illinois, did it? Because those editorial board members are obviously smoking some very wacky weed. * Empty acres don’t vote. Counties don’t vote. Townships don’t vote. Regions don’t vote. Citizens vote. Back in the “good old days,” southern Illinois politicians were able to stop redistricting for decades. The Chicago area’s population was exploding, but the people there had little influence in their state legislature. Apparently, the newspaper of record for that region would like to go back to those halcyon times. * Here’s a news flash for the undemocratic southerners: Mark Kirk is not from Chicago, but he won statewide. Judy Baar Topinka does not live in Chicago and neither does Dan Rutherford. Sheila Simon actually lives in Carbondale, where that bizarro newspaper is published. Bill Brady didn’t lose because he wasn’t from Chicago. Bill Brady lost because he failed to run a better campaign than Pat Quinn. Period. Brady was the frontrunner all year. He blew it. Plain and simple. Get over it, man. Back in 1994, Downstater Jim Edgar actually won Cook County. George Ryan was from Kankakee, where I was born. Last time I checked, Kankakee is not a Chicago ward. Obviously, it can be done. Brady just didn’t pull it off. * And it wasn’t just Chicago votes that elected Pat Quinn. Almost half a million Downstaters voted for him. Should they be disenfranchised too? Why should the 2,104 voters in Hardin County have more say in their state government than the 1,373,020 human being voters who happen to live in Cook County? What makes those Hardin voters so all-fired special and superior? The Southern Illinoisan is based in Jackson County. 15,617 people voted for governor in Jackson. But 23,594 people voted in Chicago’s 19th Ward. Yet, for some reason Jackson County votes should count for more than Beverly/Morgan Park’s? * Look, you backed a candidate who didn’t win. But that doesn’t mean it’s time for radical, unconstitutional “solutions.” That’s some very dangerous thinking. Several years ago, I asked the good folks who run the Legislative Research Unit if they had any data on which counties were the biggest state tax eaters and which were the biggest state revenue generators. I was told that the LRU has long refused to do that study because it is just too controversial. The last time they did it, they discovered that Downstate was a net revenue eater, the suburbs were a net revenue contributor and Chicago was revenue neutral. The results caused such an uproar that they won’t even touch the subject now. The fact that Downstaters eat more than their share of state money doesn’t give them the right to have more than one vote per person. * Newspaper editorial boards are supposed to be the guardians of public discourse. They’re supposed to take the time to think things through, calm the darker influences on our souls and advocate for rational, reasonable solutions. None of that was present in the SI’s ridiculous editorial. I really thought the Tribune was horrid, but there’s just no comparison here.
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A note to commenters
Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Usually, I have to use the front page to warn commenters before an election to calm down. I didn’t have to do that this year. I intervened in the comments section on occasion, but it never got to the point where I felt the need to issue an above the fold banishment warning. Yesterday afternoon, however, while I was working at the Statehouse and unable to keep an eye on the blog, things got way outta hand in comments. * I completely understand how Bill Brady’s supporters feel right now. You thought you had it. You didn’t. And now the other side doesn’t want to even give you time to make sure all the votes are counted. That’s just horribly depressing. I can see why you’re upset, even angry. And I think I understand how the Quinn supporters are feeling. You had Rodney Freaking Dangerfield himself as your candidate, but by gosh he won. And now the guy he beat won’t admit defeat and exit the stage like a proper gentleman. Combine those two and you’ve got quite the combustible mix. * But here’s the thing. I won’t tolerate any more of this. I issued a lifetime banishment last night and I’ll do more today if need be, so start treating each other with respect and take off your tinfoil hats or you’re going to find yourself forever banned from commenting here. And you can bet your house that I’m just itching to zap my first moron today. Don’t tempt me. Try to understand what the other side is going through. It’s not really all that difficult. Both parties won something unexpected Tuesday, both parties also lost. * Please use the comment section on this post to say something nice about the other side today. You’ll be surprised at how much better you’ll feel. Politics is a rough business, and, yes, we do play rough here. But we don’t need to get dirty and be mean to each other. So, electronically shake hands and let’s move along. We’re better than yesterday.
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Who was the best pollster? Nobody
Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * How did the pollsters do on the Illinois governor’s race? I don’t think it’s ever been this bad. Nobody’s average even came close. From RCP via Zorn. Click the pic for a larger image… ![]() * October polling. Again, click the pic for a better view… ![]() PPP should’ve stopped in mid October when it was ahead. * Rasmussen was also way off nationwide. From FiveThirtyEight, also via Zorn…
* But FiveThirtyEight’s famed computer model didn’t exactly work like a charm, either… ![]() Thoughts?
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Chicago will count 11,777 absentees Friday
Friday, Nov 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller [Bumped up from Thursday evening for visibility.] * From the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners…
Quinn’s lead stands at 19,413, but apparently, that’ll be rising once Chicago finishes counting. Other counties are still processing as well, but that’s a huge number of city absentees. * From ABC7…
And, keep in mind that most of those provisionals probably won’t even be counted. Cook County Clerk David Orr said yesterday that the county usually approves only about a quarter of the provisional ballots. This is why there’s just no chance for Brady. …Adding… About 37,000 of those 50,000 total uncounted absentees and provisionals are in Chicago and Cook County alone. …Adding More… Quinn won Chicago with 75 percent of the vote. Figuring that the city’s 11,777 absentees will break out about the same (it’ll probably be higher for Quinn, considering pre-election polling, but let’s just figure it that way), that’s 8,832 absentee votes for Quinn. If a quarter of the city’s provisionals are counted, that’s 2,062 more votes for Quinn, for a total of 10,894 votes. Using the same math for suburban Cook, which Quinn won with 53 percent, Quinn would pick up 6,042 votes. City and Cook combined total 14,874 Quinn votes. Using that same figuring, Brady’s total for both Chicago and Cook would be 6,742. Add the difference of those two numbers to Quinn’s current margin over Brady and you get a Quinn lead of 27,545, with just 13,000 votes left to count, assuming they are all countable, and they’re not. This thing is over. The AP is right.
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Cullerton holds pension borrowing until veto session
Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller Posted by Barton Lorimor While we’re tracking the AP’s decision to call the gubernatorial election for Gov. Quinn, Senate President John Cullerton has decided not to call the pension borrowing bill until the veto session…
More from Lee…
…Adding…
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*** UPDATED 4x *** THIS JUST IN….AP ANALYSIS FINDS BRADY CANNOT WIN; BRADY WON’T CONCEDE
Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller Posted by Barton Lorimor From the AP…
*** UPDATE 1x (4:23 p.m.) ***
It looks like Quinn has a half-percentage point lead on Brady, according to the AP’s figures. *** UPDATE 2x (4:55 p.m.) *** More from the AP…
…Adding…
*** UPDATED 3x (5:02 p.m.) *** *** UPDATED 4x (5:18 p.m.) *** Also, the absentee vote count in Jackson County turned it over to Brady this morning by 23 votes. That means Quinn’s county victories included Cook, St. Clair and Alexander.
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Clueless
Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * If Melissa Bean’s election results don’t show the rank stupidity of her campaign and the DCCC, then I don’t know what does. Even if she somehow manages to overcome her 553-vote deficit - and that’s doubtful - this never should’ve been close. Joe Walsh had tons of people in the field, marching in parades, knocking on doors. Bean didn’t. Bean made some bad votes for her district (health insurance, stimulus, etc.). She had always run as a conservative to moderate Democrat, but then she changed. Unfortunately for Bean, her district didn’t. * Bean also didn’t realize until it way was too late that she was in trouble, and she quickly tried to flood the airwaves with negative ads. By then, everybody else was already on the air with their ads. She was drowned out. And what did the DCCC do? Nothing. They could’ve weighed in late, but they didn’t. They probably thought she had it in the bag and was just being a typical whiner incumbent who always thinks she’s in trouble. Bean won her first two races with 52 and 51 percent, respectively. She behaved like a moderate in Congress. Then she clobbered her GOP opponent two years ago, so maybe she and the DCCC figured she was unbeatable and Bean could do whatever she wanted. But 2008 was a Democratic landslide, especially here in Illinois. This time, Illinoisans were clearly furious with the Democratic Congress, and they made those feeilings known. Just ask Phil Hare, Debbie Halvorson, Bill Foster, Dan Seals and Alexi Giannoulias. Bean apparently believed her own hype and thought she could sit on what she thought was her lead. Wave rules didn’t apply to her. And her campaign was clearly convinced that Joe Walsh’s numerous personal problems disqualified him in voters’ minds. Wrongo. * And then there was this…
Third party candidates aren’t viable in Illinois, but as Bill Brady found out the hard way, they can still do you in. Bean’s campaign and the DCCC’s non-involvement was a screwup from beginning to end. And the third party angle was just one of the bigger reasons behind it. * If anything, I now have a bit more respect for the We Ask America polling firm. While they didn’t get the final point spread right, they did have Walsh leading Bean in their last survey, and they showed the Green Party candidate getting over 5 percent. He ended up with 3, but that’s well within the margin of error. They were also the only public pollster to predict that Bob Dold would beat Dan Seals. They got the spread way wrong, but the end result was the same. They also had Hultgren over Foster. * Related…
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Question of the day
Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * The setup…
* The AP’s latest count has Quinn ahead of Brady by 19,514 votes. That’s down 47 votes from last night. * The Question: Should Brady concede today, or should he wait until the absentee votes are counted tomorrow, or should he wait a month until the ballot is certified? Explain.
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The ground game and Democratic and union turnout
Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * From the Democrats’ coordinated campaign…
There are a lot of Democrats in this state, and when they vote (and they almost always do) they make a big difference. From the exit polling… ![]() That’s a two-point drop in Democratic representation from 2006, and that led to some problems everywhere. But it could’ve been much worse. The ground game certainly helped keep this from being a total, complete Democratic disaster. Illinois election day voters also had a far higher opinion of the Democratic Party than they did the Republican Party… ![]() A 58 percent unfavorable for the GOP? Not great branding. And considering the beating the Democratic Party has taken in the media here, a 51 percent favorable is downright astounding. The result is also another indication that the Democratic Party did a better job of getting its people to the polls. And while David Miller probably didn’t have a chance against Topinka, the numbers suggest that he and Robin Kelly could’ve benefited from some coordinated campaign and/or state party help…
It would’ve also helped if Miller and Kelly had put together better campaigns on their own, of course. Nothing attracts campaign assistance like success. * And don’t forget the unions…
Quinn didn’t win a super-gigantic percentage of the union household vote, but it was enough… ![]() Unfortunately for the Democrats, however, union households are dropping. 32 percent told exit pollsters they lived in a union household four years ago. Still, if it wasn’t for that money the unions spent and the effort they put into the campaign, it would’ve been a much worse day for the Democrats. * Election day voters seemed more liberal than recent polls have suggested. For instance, every poll taken before the election had pluralities or even majorities of likely Illinois voters favoring repeal of the federal health care legislation. Not on election day… ![]() * Related…
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Suburbs, ideology and third partiers cost Brady dearly
Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * I am hearing this myself a lot these days from Republicans…
Personal PAC did a whole lot of mail, as did other groups. Gov. Pat Quinn doesn’t believe in direct mail, so they had to pick up the slack. * So, is this true? Well, Brady vastly outperformed Judy Baar Topinka’s 2006 numbers in the collars, but he underperformed Mark Kirk’s percentages… ![]() Kirk also did much better than Brady in suburban Cook County…
Kirk received almost 14,000 more votes than Brady in Chicago as well. * The fact that Kirk outperformed Brady in the suburbs and in the city is no huge surprise, since Kirk is a suburban moderate. But Brady’s campaign made the fatal error of thinking they could make up the difference Downstate. Check out these Downstate totals…
Brady simply did not concentrate enough time and effort on the suburbs. He was also never able to assuage suburban women that he wasn’t a wingnut, as Peter Fitzgerald was able to do in 1998. Brady wouldn’t send a moderate message and it cost him dearly…
* And for all you conservative folks who thought that Kirk wouldn’t play well Downstate, well, now you know how wrong you are. Brady only received 7 more votes than Kirk in his home county of McLean. And his margin over Quinn was 259 votes less than Kirk’s margin over Giannoulias. Why? Third party and independent candidates. Scott Lee Cohen spent big bucks and got 4 percent of the vote statewide. The other two third partiers received another 4 percent, for a total of 8 percent for the gubernatorial also-rans. In the US Senate race, the third party candidates received just 5 percent of the vote. That 3 percent was crucial. And it was more prominent in Chicago and the Cook suburbs, where third party and independent gubernatorial candidates received 8 percent while third party US Senate candiates received just 4 percent. The Brady campaign could never figure out how to deal with Cohen, and his 4 percent really hurt them in that close race. What happened was that some people who couldn’t stand to vote for Quinn took a look at Brady and decided they couldn’t be with him, either, so they went with Cohen. I’m not really sure what they could’ve done, but they didn’t do anything and that was yet another major mistake. * Now, there were other factors in this. Chicago’s turnout, for example. The superior Democratic ground game. Bigtime union involvement for Quinn. Etc. But Brady’s over-reliance on Downstate to carry the day and his refusal to spend more time and energy portraying himself as a moderate in the suburbs are both his fault. He couldn’t control the Democrats’ game. He could control his own. …Adding… These exit poll results pretty much say it all…
Look at the difference in the female vote between the two candidates and the difference in how both genders voted for third party candidates. Brady was hurt both ways. * Related…
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Morning Shorts
Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Creditors sue over Tribune deal, allege fraud in Zell’s buyout: A committee representing Tribune’s unsecured creditors filed two complaints targeting Tribune Chairman Sam Zell, the real estate mogul who engineered the buyout; other Tribune board members; former CEO Dennis FitzSimons and other former executives, accusing them of shirking their duties so they could line their own pockets. “This L.B.O. transaction is among the worst in American corporate history,” the complaint said, according to Reuters… The buyout was “tainted from start to finish,” one of the complaints contends. * Tony Rezko, ex-Blagojevich fundraiser, has status hearing * Fast harvest, but conditions dry statewide * DuPage prosecutor Joe Birkett named appellate judge * DuPage’s Birkett appointed to appellate court * Birkett appointed to Appellate Court * 4 Cook judges deemed unqualified by bar are retained by voters * Schools boss Huberman exiting early
* Chicago schools chief to leave post this month * Chicago Public Schools chief Huberman leaving end of Nov. * Huberman to leave Chicago Public Schools * Sun-Times: Huberman picks bad time to resign, but … * Civic Federation warns of hazards in Daley budget
* Police Supt. Weis revises minimum age restriction plan * Aldermen propose banning alcohol-caffeine drinks * Ban of caffeinated alcoholic drinks is on the table * Burke: Charge charities $10 per day to solicit donations on public way * Stroger still deciding if he will fight Oglesby’s unemployment claim * Stroger refuses to answer question onfinalists for watchdog post * Cabrera new City Colleges board chairman * Blue Island mayor on vote: ‘We got killed’ * Elgin officials get first look at 2011 budget * Buffalo Grove village president apologizes for mocking recalled trustee * Village president sorry for mocking opponent in a wig * Judge OKs case against Harvey mayor, detective * City, Naperville council struggle with wards decision * Geneva attorney is nominee for Kane state’s attorney * Perez claims Kane County Sheriff seat * Jockeying begins for Lake County Board chairmanship * Trail projects get $5M in funds * Antioch to see grant for new pool * Carpentersville OK’s Firearms School * Naperville eyes $10 mil tax rebate for hotel project * Nine communities express interest in FutureGen CO2 disposal site * R.I. Republicans: ‘This party is not dead in Rock Island County’ * 2 laid-off East Moline officers get their jobs back * Sangamon Co. voters reject sales tax hike for schools * Decatur Township votes to raise its tax levy 4.95 percent to collect additional $75,000 * Education sales tax squeaks to win * 183rd firefighters to be laid off next year * SIU Announces Closure Days * Fioretti: Cancer like getting ‘hit by train’ * Meeks to tour Southwest Side schools
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
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The precincts are all in and Quinn leads by 19,561 votes
Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * With 11,209 of 11,209 precincts reporting, Gov. Pat Quinn leads Bill Brady by 19,561 votes. They still have to count absentees and provisionals. There may yet be some adjustments in precinct counts. But that’s a big margin to overcome. * Mark Brown…
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The count goes on
Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * 5:15 pm - Gov. Pat Quinn’s lead over Bill Brady is now 16,210 votes. * And more from the Tribune…
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The Downstate blowout and other political oddities
Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * The winners write the history books, but one significant and overlooked development in Tuesday’s election was how poorly Gov. Pat Quinn did in Downstate counties. Quinn won just three: St. Clair, Jackson and Alexander. Four years ago, Rod Blagojevich won 27, including Will, which is sort of a hybrid. The only Downstate county that Quinn won which Blagojevich lost was Jackson, the home of Quinn’s running mate. Many of these counties are tiny, isolated southern Illinois areas. But they’ve been mostly reliably Democratic since Illinois became a state. All but one went Republican during the 1994 Republican wave, but they eventually reverted to form. Gallatin, however, was the only county in all of Illinois won by Dawn Clark Netsch in ‘94. Quinn just lost Gallatin by 12 points. Some of these counties are not so small, like Rock Island, Madison and Winnebago. That has to worry Democratic leaders. Anyway, Blagojevich won these counties four years ago and Quinn lost them yesterday. The percentages are Bill Brady vs. Quinn…
Losing Rock Island County is almost akin to losing Cook. Same with Madison. But those counties are changing. Their old-time party chairmen are gone and the remaining infrastructure is rotten. Lots of new folks continue to move into Madison, and they’re almost universally appalled at the way things are run there. Plus, how many times can you be called a national “hell hole” before it starts to grate on your nerves? * Here’s another electoral oddity. Green Party candidate Jeremy Karpen received 35% of the vote in a Latino district against state Rep. Toni Berrios. He was vastly outspent. Independent Forrest Claypool outspent Rep. Berrios’ father in a majority white county and got 32 percent of the vote. Of course, there were more people running in the assessor’s race, but it’s still a fun fact. * An un-fun fact. Check out the 2:10 mark of this video when Tony Peraica says of his loss yesterday “There will be a punishment to be paid for the election of my opponent.” Sheesh… I ignored this race mostly because my former intern Kevin Fanning handled the campaign for Peraica’s opponent. But, hey, when the man gets arrested the weekend before the election, it’s difficult to skip over the thing. * I have a question. With all the big Democratic wins in Cook County, what the heck happened here?… ![]()
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*** UPDATED x3 *** The count… Continued
Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Gov. Quinn’s lead is now 12,344 votes. That’s more than one vote per precinct. Discuss. * 2:23 pm - The governor’s lead is now 11,851 votes, which is still more than one vote per precinct. *** UPDATE 1 *** From Melissa Bean’s campaign…
*** UPDATE 2 *** The governor is now ahead of Sen. Brady by 12,143 votes. *** UPDATE 3 *** The governor’s lead is now 13,075.
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The count in Cook
Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Cook County Clerk David Orr just called to fill us in on what’s going on with their count. They have 24 precincts that haven’t yet been processed, mainly because of the same sort of cartridge problem that the city had. Those will be counted and then totals released in a couple of hours. The county also has 9600 absentee ballots that aren’t counted, plus another 900 which came in today. Some of those that arrived today will, if history is a guide, be invalid because they were mailed after Monday’s deadline. Every day, they’ll see fewer and fewer absentee ballots come in, and fewer of those will be valid because of the postmark issue. The absentees that they have now will likely be counted by Friday. They need to check to make sure that these people didn’t vote on election day. The clerk also has 3600 provisional ballots. Historically, Orr said, about a quarter of those will be deemed valid. I’d heard that there are tons of Republican lawyers hanging out at the city’s election board digs, and Orr confirmed that there were a bunch of GOP attorneys in his shop as well. So far, though, I’ve received no communication from the Republicans about any problems they’ve seen. Orr also said that he’s called around and a bunch of counties aren’t releasing their absentee ballot totals. Kane County has about 1400 uncounted absentees, Orr said. Bill Brady beat Pat Quinn 69,497 to 49,574 in Kane (54-38). But, keep in mind that the Democratic coordinated campaign sent out all those late absentee applications. * Also, according to the AP, Gov Quinn’s lead is 9,494 votes. …Adding… We now have video of Brady’s Bloomington presser. Watch… …Adding More… 2:02 pm While y’all are doing your figuring about where the uncounted vote is and what it means, I thought you might like a copy of this question on the exit poll… ![]()
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Question of the day
Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Now what? Answer any way you like, but keep it Illlinois-related.
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Brady to speak soon - Won’t concede - 30-day wait - AUDIO - Chicago board of elections explains - Quinn all but declares victory… Again
Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * 10:30 am - Bill Brady’s 10:30 am announcement on the future of his campaign will be covered live by WLS Radio. Click here to listen. [Oops. That WGN link was for the national Republicans. Back to WLS Radio for us.] * I’ve switched over to WJBC. Click here. * Brady is not conceding, of course. He’s going to wait for the rest of the results to come in and the election to be certified. He just said “realistically we think we’re looking at a 30-day process.” * 10:45 am - And it’s over. * 10:46 am - Military ballots still out there? According to state Rep. Dan Brady it’s a bit over 2000. Not enough. * 10:58 am - Somebody mentioned the military ballot situation in comments, which was about the same thing I heard from a Republican operative on the phone today. Quinn has made it a regular practice to see the troops off to Iraq and Afghanistan. He also, of course, attends their funerals and/or wakes. He’s visited both countries and spent time with Illinois troops. This is not your usual Democrat, and the military votes might reflect that. *** AUDIO *** From BlueRoomStream.com…
*** 10:38 am *** From the Chicago elections board…
*** 11:32 am *** From the Quinn campaign…
That’s pretty much a declaration of victory, no?
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY: This just in… See you tomorrow
Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Oh, sweet irony
Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * The Tribune’s editorial today was entitled “The Rebuke.” It was pretty thin soup…
First, notice how they breezed past that Brady thing. More importantly, though, the US Senate seat is not part of “state government.” That’s quite the stretch. The state Senate, which is part of state government, gained just two Republican seats, despite the fact that the Tribune endorsed every Republican running in a contested district. And those two seats the Democrats lost were the hardest to hold. The only surprise last night in the state Senate was the large winning margins of some of the Democratic candidates. So, who was “rebuked,” exactly? House Speaker Michael Madigan, whom the Tribune has relentlessly railed against, lost a net of six seats. But Madigan only lost one seat in the Tribune’s coverage area: Rep. Mark Walker. The Tribune, you will recall, claimed that Walker was anti-business, even though he’d been endorsed by the Illinois Chamber. So, there’s a win, I suppose. But they lost every other suburban battle. The words “Madigan” and “Cullerton” aren’t even in the editorial. Curious, that. Well, what about those Congressional races? Surely, the big blue lady can crow about those, right? Well, the Tribune endorsed Democrats Bill Foster and Melissa Bean. Oops. And now for the grand finale…
Stay classy, boys.
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Energize Illinois’ Economy: Say YES to Tenaska’s Taylorville Energy Center
Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Capitol Fax Blog Advertising Department [The following is a paid advertisement.] Taylorville means jobs
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Tribune: 15,000 absentee ballots uncounted in Chicago and Cook - Brady to speak at 10:30 - GOP Leader threatens lawsuit
Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * From the Tribune…
* ABC7 says it’s more…
Last night, Fox Chicago reported that 9,000 absentees remained to be counted by the Chicago elections board. * Bill Brady is meeting with his staff right now to decide what to do next…
Brady is expected to speak at 10:30 this morning. Stay tuned. …Adding… Oops. I missed this one…
I agree they should be counted on election night, but you’re gonna file a lawsuit over this? I thought Republicans were for tort reform?
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Morning Videos: Quinn, Brady, ILGOP, Cohen, Kirk, Giannoulias, Dold, Halvorson, Burris
Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * For once, Gov. Pat Quinn didn’t talk forever last night, and he stopped just shy of declaring victory. Watch it… * Bill Brady addressed his supporters a little earlier in the evening and said “This isn’t going to be decided tonight.” Have a look… * I’ve taken down some of the embeds because they were screwing up my site. Here they are…
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Final guv race results trickle in
Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller Posted by Barton Lorimor ** 2:20 a.m. Rich is taking a break between now and the time he needs to write the Subscriber’s edition later this morning. Any one out there up for spending the early morning with the intern? Boo ya. The governor’s lead is now at 8,349 as the only precincts not reporting are inside Cook County and the City of Chicago. You may recall from the exit polling released last night that Quinn did quite well in these areas today despite what some previous polls predicted during the last month. To be specific, we’re looking at 27 precincts in the county and 48 precincts inside the city. Since the Chicago Board of Election’s Web site went down earlier this morning, we don’t know which Chicago precincts are missing. Not even the Quinn campaign staffer I spoke to a few moments ago was sure what parts of the city have not been counted. * Meanwhile, here’s a quick round-up of some of the early editions…
** 2:36 a.m. For those interested, below is video of Quinn’s and Brady’s speeches to their supporters earlier tonight provided by CBS 2.
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Who were the biggest winners and biggest losers?
Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Your thoughts?
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Die-hard election results live-blog - ONLY CHICAGO, COOK COUNTY REMAIN; Fox: 9,000 absentees in Chicago
Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Midnight - I’m staying up. You with me? * Oh, and in case you were wondering, Gov. Quinn’s lead is now 7,576 votes. *** 12:06 am *** Bill Brady just said the election won’t be decided tonight, so that’s it for him. *** 12:10 am *** The AP has declared Republican Bob Dold the winner in the 10th CD. * 12:33 am - The Quinn margin is now 10,933. * 12:39 am - This is odd. Here is the AP total for Speaker Madigan’s district…
Notice that less than half the precincts are reported as counted. But the city and the county both have MJM’s district as completely counted. So, either somebody forgot to update a single district. Or, the AP isn’t including those MJM district totals in their grand totals. I strongly suspect it’s the former, not the latter. But one never knows. *** 12:43 am *** From Caroi Fowler of Fox Chicago…
That would be the ballgame. * 12:50 am - Precincts not yet counted statewide: 266. Precincts not counted in Chicago: 53. Not counted in Cook: 69, which is the same as earlier. I hope David Orr has not gone to bed. That would suck. * 12:54 am - Quinn to crowd: “It looks like another landslide victory is heading our way.” * 12:55 am - The governor’s lead is now 9,133. * 12:57 am - Quinn: “I think when all is said, we’ll end up on top with the most votes.” And the crowd goes wild. * 1:04 am - Great. Just great. The Chicago elections results website is down. * 1:16 am - The AP hasn’t updated in a while, so I’m gonna take a nap. Update in comments if you wish. Thanks much for everything tonight. I have the greatest commenters on Planet Earth. Bar none! *** 1:30 am *** Barton here. As Rich said, the CBOE’s Web site is down, but Cook County and the AP continue to provide updates. There are now 32 precincts that still need to be counted in the County. Quinn leads by 8,515. * 1:43 am - Some new data from the city board. There are now 48 Chicago precincts uncounted. Quinn leads Brady in the city precincts that have been counted 75.4% - 17.5%. * 1:50 am - It would appear as if the downstate vote is done being counted, according to a graphic POLITICO is maintaining with data from the AP. It’s on you, Cook County.
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