In the interim, do you have any drinking game phrases we could choose? “Land of Lincoln” and “Deconstruct and reconstruct” seem two likely choices for the two main party guys. Anything else?
“It has to do with a world-view,'’ Quinn said today, when asked about the appropriateness of the ad, during a meeting with the Post-Dispatch editorial board. Mass euthanasia of animals is “very cruel . . . It’s revolting to the people of Illinois.'’
* It’s so fun watching them dodge questions about the budget. Actually, it’s not fun at all. Quinn: More jobs will balance the budget. True, in a few years, yes. If, that is, we get those jobs. And that’s a big if.
Brady went full circle, talking about funding schools, public health, public safety, social services, but without saying anything about what he’d cut. I hope there’s an opportunity for follow-up because so far it’s just somebody says something and then they move on.
* And, now, on to jobs. Brady: “Level the playing field by being ‘pro job’ by being ‘pro business.” Quinn uses “Ford” and “Navistar” for the kabillionth time, while making the good point that those companies chose Illinois, not Indiana. “The best way to fight poverty, the best way to fight crime” is jobs. No specifics, of course, on how we get those.
* So far, this isn’t a debate, it’s three separate press conferences held together without any real interaction and no follow-ups. It’s all talking points. They’re not even looking at each other.
* Brady actually said “There you go again, Gov. Quinn.” I wrote a while ago that this campaign looked a lot like Carter vs. Reagan, but I wasn’t expecting the guy to actually lift Reagan’s quote.
* Ah, finally, rebuttal.
* Brady, in response to Quinn, just said he claimed there would be a “natural rise in property valuation” not a natural rise in property taxes when questioned at the State Fair by reporters. I’m going to have to find that video soon.
…And here is the video. Brady’s actual quote: “Well, there’s some natural property taxes that will go into effect.” So far, that’s the only news out of this debate except for the fact that Rich Whitney has pretty much outclassed both of the major party candidates.
Brady: “Taking taxpayer dollars to put people to work in the private sector is no solution… Let the private sector deal with creating jobs.”
Whitney: Ethanol is a “delusion,” and more about “enriching Archer Daniels Midland” than helping farmers. Wants more local food production for local use.
* Quinn just called himself “Mr. Soybean” again. Sigh. Is there a talking point not used yet?
* Brady, re tax hikes: “Gov. Quinn has been a politician so long that he can’t remember what he was for and now he is against.”
* Closing statements. Quinn mentions a veteran he spent some time with today. I was wondering how long that would take.
Brady: “If you like the way things are today, then one of these two candidates is your candidate.” He paints his ten percent cuts as “fair” because he won’t single out education and public safety for attack. Very nice spin. Beats the truth, which is that everybody is gonna get whacked hard.
Brady’s personal views veer to the right of our tastes and the well-being of the state, but we take him at his word that he won’t push a social agenda as governor and we call on him to govern from the middle.
* But the Associated Press asked the question a different way. Brady told the DH that he wouldn’t seek to overturn a civil unions law if it was passed, but here’s what he said when asked what he’d do if the legislature passes a civil unions bill after he’s sworn in…
Brady also says he would veto legislation letting gay couples establish civil unions in Illinois.
So much for “the legislature would have spoken” and the “legislative process will determine the state’s agenda on social issues.”
This is no surprise, of course. But the Daily Herald seemed to think the conservative lion had been somehow tamed. Nope.
* Bill Brady said again today that he won’t raise taxes and fees if elected. From an AP story…
Brady continues to duck questions about spending cuts.
He wouldn’t take a firm position on cutting children’s health services that grew under former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, and he couldn’t name any sacrifices the people of Illinois will have to make.
Sheila Simon, the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, says that if she and Gov. Pat Quinn win November’s election, they won’t cut Medicaid eligibility standards in an effort to reduce the state’s Medicaid costs.
And…
Patty Schuh, a spokeswoman for Republican gubernatorial nominee Bill Brady, declined to say whether Brady would seek to tighten Medicaid eligibility requirements if elected,calling it a hypothetical question.
It won’t be “hypothetical” come January.
* Maybe my old pal Jak Tichenor can pry some answers out of the gubernatorial candidates tonight when he moderates the debate…
What is being billed as the only downstate debate between the major candidates for Illinois governor kicks off at 8 p.m. Thursday at Southern Illinois University-Carbondale.
Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, Republican challenger Bill Brady and Green Party nominee Rich Whitney will square off at WSIU-TV studios.
My intern Barton Lorimor will be at the debate as well, so we’ll have video clips later. I’ll ask him to check the blog if you’d like to pose your own questions here. We’ll see if he can get some questions in during any press conferences the candidates may have. So, fire away.
*** UPDATE *** WSIU TV will also offer a live video stream starting just before 8 o’clock tonight. Click here.
In the battle for campaign cash in the waning weeks of the governor’s race, Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn has is slightly ahead of Republican Bill Brady.
Since Oct. 4, Quinn has reported raising $1.5 million while Brady has raised nearly $1.3 million.
Quinn’s top donor has been the political arm of Service Employees International Union, which has donated $750,000. The Republican Governors Association has donated more than $585,000 to Brady’s campaign.
Billionaires Kenneth and Anne Griffin have donated $100,000 to Brady. The couple, who recently donated $16 million to Children’s Memorial Hospital, also gave $125,000 to the House Republican Organization.
* Alexi Giannoulias’ campaign has released its head-to-head topline from its latest tracking poll. Read the full, but quite brief memo by clicking here…
…Adding… Kirk’s campaign claims that Giannoulias released these numbers to boost what they claim to be lagging fundraising. They also claim that all of their internals have shown a Kirk lead since the summer.
600 likely voters conducted Oct. 10-12, with a +/-4 percent margin of error. Rasmussen had Mark Kirk trailing Giannoulias 44-43 [Corrected. Sorry.], but they didn’t include all the candidates. Just stupid. And this is one reason why…
Democratic operatives have apparently begun “push polling” in Illinois, trying to drive a wedge between conservative voters and Rep. Mark Kirk, the centrist Republican seeking the Senate seat once held by President Barack Obama.
According to people who have heard it, the call talks up Libertarian candidate Mike Labno as the only true “pro-life” candidate in a race that also includes Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones. It also referred to Kirk’s vote last year for Obama-backed legislation capping carbon emissions and setting up a system for polluters to trade greenhouse gas emissions credits.
The poll “asked how likely are you to vote…for governor, if today who…for Senate, if today who… (and mispronounced Giannoulias)…gave some negatives for Kirk including cap-and-trade… and listed Labno positions,” wrote a commenter on the website of the West Suburban Patriots, a Chicago-area Tea Party group. The poster said the poll concluded with a disclaimer that it was sponsored by the Democratic National Committee.
…Adding… Here’s the thing, a relative handful of Illinois voters watched last weekend’s debate, and this reporter is reading way too much into what went on…
And the fact that Kirk pressed Giannoulias on the loans during last Sunday’s “Meet the Press”, while Giannoulias opted not to directly challenge Kirk on his exaggerations shows the Republican line of attack is more damaging.
Yeah. OK. That’s why Giannoulias is using the line of attack in all his ads.
* The Tribune, by the way, fronted a big Bright Start story today. Most of the new stuff was tick-tock and the piece seemed to exonerate Giannoulias on several fronts. The tone, however, probably wasn’t so great for the treasurer, and a front-page story with a big photo of Giannoulias emerging from behind a curtain wasn’t so hot, either. I’m not really sure what to think about this piece. Go read it and report back.
* Rasmussen has a new poll out and while they finally included Scott Lee Cohen in the question, they didn’t include Libertarian Lex Green. Instead, they gave voters an option for “some other candidate.” That’s just goofy. Why ask about “other” when they could’ve just asked about Green? Anyway, Raz has Bill Brady leading Quinn by six points, 46-40, but not including all candidates is a huge mistake and bad polling practices and that’s all I’m going to say about this head-to-head result.
Here are a couple of interesting toplines, however…
* Who has been a better manager of the state’s finances as governor - Pat Quinn or Rod Blagojevich?
55% Quinn
18% Blagojevich
28% Not sure
That puts Brady out of step. The other day, Brady said there was “no question” that Quinn was “far worse” than Blagojevich.
And…
* Which candidate for governor has a better plan for creating jobs in Illinois….Bill Brady or Pat Quinn?
43% Brady
30% Quinn
27% not sure
I didn’t know that either one of them had a real plan. Either way, that’s not good news at all for Gov. Quinn. Not at all. He’s just not seen as a good governor. Better than Blagojevich, sure, but that’s setting the bar pretty darned low.
* I have never seen a candidate crow about being 18 points behind before. But here’s the press release…
The Pollak for Congress campaign has released poll data showing that Democrat incumbent Jan Schakowsky has fallen to 48%, while Republican challenger Joel Pollak is gaining ground at 30%.
OK, so Schakowsky is under 50, but the guy is at 30 with less than three weeks to go. That’s a long way to move, baby.
* Almost everyone’s caption yesterday on the photo of Mark pointing upwards focused on his goofy prediliction toward embellishment. Wordslinger’s was very funny…
“We landed right there, in the Sea of Tranquility. I remember telling Neil and Buzz, ‘you guys go ahead, I’m taking the rover over to a meeting with a delegation of the Klingons….”
I’ve asked Word to start thinking about writing for the front page, so it would be a bit of a conflict to give him the win.
Oswego Willy’s was the most comprehensively funny…
In this slide, I am rescuing a baby from a burning building, using only dental floss, a ball point pen, and gum …. next slide … this is me, at the 1980 Olympics in Moscow winning the Decathalon, and singing the national anthem - a very proud moment … next slide … this is me, with Elvis and with President Nixon in the Oval Office - what a card Elvis was! … next slide … This is me handing the ball off to William Perry a.k.a. the Fridge, in Super Bowl XX … next slide … this is me, on top of the Berlin Wall, saying “itch bein ein Berliner” … next slide … this is me, Begin, Sadat and Jimmy Carter at the White House - powerful meeting … next slide … this is me, Scotty Pippen, and Michael Jordan talking to Phil Jackson during a timeout …next slide … oh, this is me, and Ald. Dick Mell standing on our desks when I suggested Eugene Sawyer to be the next mayor of Chicago …next slide …
One day, he will win.
But “(618)662 Dem” captured Kirk’s personality tic perfectly and in the least number of words, so he gets the win…
See that mark up there, that’s how tall I am.
Sublime.
Please e-mail me to set up our evening of drinking.
* I would make a stupid wisecrack about Whitney losing black votes over this, but that would be so very wrong…
The last name of Green Party gubernatorial candidate Rich Whitney is misspelled as “Whitey” on electronic-voting machines in nearly two dozen wards — about half in predominantly African-American areas — and election officials said Wednesday the problem cannot be corrected by Election Day.
The misspelling turned up on touch-screen machines in 23 wards overall. Whitney’s name is spelled correctly on the machines’ initial screens showing all of the candidates’ names, but it is misspelled on review screens that later show a voter his or her choices, said Jim Allen, spokesman for the Chicago Board of Elections.
Whitney went there, however…
“I don’t want to be identified as ‘Whitey.’ If this is happening in primarily African-American wards, that’s an even bigger concern,” Whitney told the Chicago Sun-Times. “I don’t know if this is machine politics at play or why this happened.”
It seems odd that the machines can’t easily be reprogrammed to correct this. But it is only happening on review screens, not the original voting screen, so it isn’t as horrible as it could be.
* On to someone with a brighter political future. As I told subscribers today, there’s a big unaddressed question in this Sun-Times story…
Top tip . . .
Sneed hears rumbles Attorney General Lisa Madigan is eyeing a bid to run for mayor of Chicago.
Consider.
• Fact: The election for statewide offices is Nov. 2.
• Fact: The filing deadline for Chicago mayoral candidates is Nov. 22.
• The kicker: “The day after the Nov. 2 statewide elections, when Lisa is expected to be re-elected, she then … could do anything she wants,” said a top Dem source.
• Lisa’s response (via a press spokesman): “She is focusing on her race for attorney general.
• Sneed’s retort: “Is that a ‘yes’ or a ‘no?’”
• Lisa’s response (via a press spokesman): “She is in Rockford today campaigning. She is focusing on running for attorney general.”
• Lisa Lore: Madigan, a devoted mother of two daughters — who shocked everyone with her new look on the cover of Sherren Leigh’s popular Today’s Chicago Woman magazine, is a top statewide vote-getter and a favorite amongst women voters. Her father, powerful House Speaker Mike Madigan, is head of the state Democratic Party.
• The big question: Will Lisa shock all the boys battling for the mayoral mantle and enter the fray on Nov. 3?
If she wins the mayor’s race, she has to resign her attorney general post. The governor would appoint her replacement. I’m somewhat doubtful that she would want Republican Bill Brady to do that. Stranger this have happened, but I’m just not sure she want that. We’ll see.
*** UPDATE *** WBEZ’s Allison Cuddy interviewed AG Madigan on “Eight Forty Eight” this morning. As a commenter noted, while Madigan’s statement was not exactly Shermanesque, it sure looks like her answer is “No.” Listen…
Transcript…
Cuddy: You have not definitively ruled out whether or not you’ll run (for mayor)
LMadigan: I think I have. I just don’t think it’s been reported that way.
Cuddy: Are you going to run for mayor?
LMadigan: No, my goal is to serve as your attorney general.
* The Dan Rutherford for state treasurer campaign says this is the first shot in a $1 million TV buy. They say the ad is up on Chicago network right now. Rate it…
*** UPDATE *** Democrat Robin Kelly’s state treasurer campaign says that Rutherford bought $600,000 on Chicago TV so far. They also said that they have “six figures” behind this radio ad…
They claim the radio ad started running Tuesday in Chicago, Metro East, Peoria and Rockford.
* Vice President Joe Biden reportedly spoke for eleven days the other night during a rally for Gov. Pat Quinn. The Quinn campaign gives us the abridged version…
The report, by the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, says Illinois does well on matters such as imposing building codes that require use of techniques and materials that will save energy, but ranks poorly on transportation, where the state has no fuel-efficiency standards for its own cars.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday afternoon is set to announce its long-expected decision to approve blending higher concentrations of ethanol into gasoline for newer vehicles, allowing mixtures of up to 15% of the corn-based fuel at the gas pump.
But the decision is controversial and complicated. It creates two grades of ethanol-blended gasoline, the higher of which isn’t approved for use in older cars, and could lead to confusion at the pump. Retailers will have to install new pumps or decide which of the two grades to sell.
Mayor Richard Daley says his 2011 budget proposal allows for 150 to 200 new cops. But his administration is vague about whether that’ll be a net gain, once police retirements are taken into account.
According to court documents filed last month, when her former campaign treasurer “questioned Mrs. Gorman about her motives and expressed her concern. … Mrs. Gorman ’said (she) just wanted money moved out of that bank.’”
Now Gorman faces possible contempt charges for the December 2009 transfer. In a strongly worded opinion, U.S. Magistrate Judge Arlander Keys recommended Gorman be held in contempt of court if she does not return the $68,000 to her campaign fund, which had been subpoenaed by Chrysler Financial Services.
Details about his job duties weren’t available, but Talley does serve in a position exempt from the court-ordered ban on political hiring and firing, Bright said.
That means he serves at the will of the board president.
The move came about two months after local political candidate Scott Pollak claimed the chief tried to attack him at the police station.
Pollak, a Democrat running for state representative against incumbent Republican JoAnn Osmond, had gone to the station because of an earlier confrontation between officers, Pollak’s teenage son and other teens over whether a permit was needed for door-to-door campaigning.
As of 4 p.m. [yesterday], 65 of the state’s 102 counties had responded and all but 12 had gotten the ballots out by the deadline, said Rupert Borgsmiller, spokesman for the State Board of Elections.
The U.S. Justice Department is investigating whether the state of Illinois missed the deadline for mailing absentee ballots to members of the military and other overseas American voters as part of a new federal overseas voting law.
Of course, Drudge linked to WLS’ story with a huge banner headline…
Ok, take a deep breath, Matt. The State of Illinois couldn’t have missed the deadline because the counties or cities (depending) mail the ballots. Also, please disregard this ignorant press release statement by gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady, who really ought to know better…
“I am deeply concerned about today’s disturbing report that Illinois may have failed to mail absentee ballots to our military members serving overseas in a timely manner, and in accordance with the law,” Brady said.
Once again, the state doesn’t mail absentee ballots. So, be sure to pretermit this breathless press release by Congressman Mark Kirk, likely dictated via satellite phone as he was flying over some combat zone in a fighter jet he designed himself…
“Our men and women in uniform are putting their lives on the line everyday to defend our democratic freedoms. What a disgrace it would be if our state denied them theirs. I will do everything in my power to defend the rights of our men and women in uniform. I urge my opponent, Alexi Giannoulias, to stand with me in support of our men and women in uniform.”
“Our state” isn’t denying anybody anything, except timely bill payments, of course, and perhaps quality candidates. And neither is the secretary of state…
The Dept. of justice is investigating whether the Democrat Secretary of State for Illinois has somehow forgotten to send thousands of absentee ballots out to members of the military serving overseas
Um, dude, our Illinois secretary of state is not involved with the conduct of elections. You must have Jesse White confused with Katherine Harris. That’s a bit hard to do, though. He’s an older African-American gentleman. She’s an older white woman. He played baseball. She played hardball. Florida is also not Illinois. It’s warm down there in the winter. It’s usually quite cold up here during that particular season. They have palm trees and miles and miles of ocean and Gulf beaches. We don’t. They also have different state laws. Maybe (I doubt it, but maybe) you’re thinking of the Illinois State Board of Elections, which runs one of the worst websites on the planet, but still does not have anything to do with the physical process of actually mailing absentee ballots. That task, you see, is done by counties and city election authorities.
The voter must obtain an application for absentee ballot, either by mail or in person, from their election authority (county clerk or board of election commissioners). Upon receiving the application, the voter completes and returns it to the election authority. It must include their name; home address; address where they want the ballot mailed; party affiliation for a primary election; and signature. The completed application must then be returned to the election authority in the appropriate time frame.
Are we clear now? Can we move along to the real villains in this sad and messed up tale? Thank you.
Officials with two of Illinois’ largest jurisdictions — the Chicago Board of Elections and the Cook County Board of Elections— said Wednesday that they mailed ballots on time.
But we do know of at least one self-admitted violator. And the St. Clair county clerk is undoubtedly in for a very rude awakening…
St. Clair County Clerk Bob Delaney said 1,297 overseas military ballots — many of them connected with Scott Air Force Base — didn’t get sent out until Oct. 4, primarily because he was waiting for a decision on whether the Constitution Party would be allowed on the ballot.
Under the 2009 Military and Overseas Voter Empowerment (MOVE) act, ballots are supposed to be sent 45 days before the election in order to give troops time to fill them out and return them for counting.
Delaney said it wouldn’t have made financial sense to send out two versions of the ballot if the Constitution Party had won its case.
“This is not just like sending out your grocery list,” Delaney said. “I really don’t care what the Department of Justice thinks.”
“I really don’t care what the Department of Justice thinks.” Famous last words. Sic ‘em, boys. And use the teeth.
For a county clerk to violate federal voter law over a few bucks and perhaps deny members of the military their right to vote is just ridiculous. Apparently, this man has never had to rely on the military mail service. I had to do so as a civilian dependent of my parents when they were stationed in Germany. APO makes the USPS look like e-mail. Heckuva job, Bobby.
Now, as far as I know, counties will count ballots from overseas if they are postmarked by election day. And some counties do a fax and e-mail application service. There are still ways to vote if someone you know is in this mess. Make sure to contact your local election office.
* We all watched a video yesterday afternoon of Republican gadfly William Kelly at a Rahm Emanuel press conference. Kelly repeatedly insisted that he was a reporter for WIND Radio as he shouted at Emanuel and was shoved aside and yelled at by a couple of real live TV reporters. Turns out, Kelly ain’t a reporter…
In July, Kelly debuted a one-hour Saturday evening radio talk show called “The Kelly Truth Squad” on WIND-AM (560). But Kelly buys the air time on WIND and is not an employee of the station — an arrangement that the host argues gives him more leeway in what he can say and do on the show.
But that arrangement caused WIND general manager Jeff Reisman to take issue with one aspect of Monday’s video. “It was wrong for Kelly to call himself a reporter at WIND when he does not work for the station,” said Reisman
* The Drudge Report linked to Kelly’s video with this headline…
Chicago hometown reporters shield Emanuel from outsider’s questions
Neither Levine or Thomas were available for comment, but a Channel 7 spokeswoman downplayed any suggestion the video might have captured an unflattering side of Thomas as street reporter: “What the video shows is Charles Thomas trying to get in position so that he could have his question answered,” said the station spokeswoman. A Channel 2 spokeswoman said the station stands by Levine. “Jay is an aggressive reporter, and we let his reporting do the talking for him,” added the spokeswoman.
So, to summarize, we have a loud, odd individual whose greatest claim to fame when he ran for comptroller was his attempt to goad state treasurer and US Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias into a boxing match showing up at a Rahm Emanuei press availability with a video cameraman while claiming to be a radio reporter (notice the problem right there), but he isn’t a radio reporter because he only buys time on the station once a week for his talk show, but he managed to get some national attention because a site that lives to whack Democrats used the worst possible spin in its link. And, boy, does this person have high ambitions…
“I’d like to be the conservative version of Larry King,” said Kelly, referencing the longtime CNN talk show host who is about to retire.
Overshadowed by the frat house hijinks detailed in David Carr’s New York Times opus on Tribune Co. last week was a potentially more damaging allegation — that owner Sam Zell tried to use the Chicago Tribune to benefit his other business interests.
Former editor Ann Marie Lipinski recalled a June 2008 meeting at which the billionaire mogul told her the newspaper should be harder on then-Gov. Rod Blagojevich. (“Don’t be a p*ssy,” she quoted Zell saying. “You can always be harder on him.”) Later that day, she learned that Zell was negotiating to sell Wrigley Field to the state sports authority. Lipinski quit the following month.
Up until just a few short weeks ago, anything that even looked like a Blagojevich-related story was big news in this state. But now, we’ve got a potential barn-burner and there’s almost total silence. Strange, that. Apparently, “Rahm” is the new “Rod” for our press corps.
* The Sunlight Foundation is performing an excellent public service by totaling up all the reported outside spending on federal campaigns this season. For instance, here are the totals for the US Senate contest…
Alexander Giannoulias:
* Independent expenditures in support: $19,014.00
* Independent expenditures in opposition: $3,647,156.10
Mark Kirk:
* Independent expenditures in support: $147,628.76
* Independent expenditures in opposition: $1,845,565.00
Total outside spending in race: $5,659,363.86
Karl Rove’s groups have spent over $3.3 million on this campaign so far, making him the biggest outside spender, with more on the way. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee came in second at just under $1.8 million. Go here for the full list.
Bill Foster:
* Independent expenditures in support: $797,030.00
* Independent expenditures in opposition: $425,330.43
* Electioneering communications: $3,480.00
Randy Hultgren:
* Independent expenditures in support: $4,620.31
* Independent expenditures in opposition: $502,829.62
Total outside spending in race: $1,733,290.36
The National Association of Realtors has dropped $765K to help Congressman Foster, including $100K for Internet ads. America’s Families First Action Fund has spent almost $200K against the Republican Hultgren.
Durbin wants an investigation into Crossroads GPS, a conservative group that enjoys tax-exempt status. By law, the group’s activities aren’t supposed to be primarily political.
But Durbin says ads like this one, against Democratic senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias, sure do sound political.
AD: …Illinois can’t afford any more Alexi.
Durbin says his problem is that Crossroads isn’t required to disclose its donors because it’s a nonprofit.
DURBIN: If you want to be treated as a charity, you can’t be a political organization.
The conservative group American Crossroads, which has been singled out for criticism by President Obama and other Democrats, said Wednesday that it has shattered its fundraising goals in the face of such attacks and will now expand its efforts into House races as a result.
American Crossroads and its nonprofit affiliate, Crossroads GPS, will join two other Republican-friendly groups in a “House surge strategy,” spending up to $50 million in competitive districts over the next three weeks, officials said. The Crossroads groups will also expand their spending in Senate races. […]
Crossroads spokesman Jonathan Collegio said conservative outrage over the Democratic attacks helped the Crossroads group raise more than $13 million in the past week, shattering the group’s $52 million fundraising goal for the cycle. The two affiliates now expect to raise $65 million by Nov. 2. [Emphasis added.]
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dropped nearly $6.6 million in new independent expenditures this week, according to reports filed Tuesday with the Federal Election Commission, as the party faces an expanding landscape of vulnerable incumbents.
In the Mid-Atlantic region, the Midwest and the Southwest, the DCCC spent to help incumbents who increasingly appear to be in jeopardy. The committee has now spent just less than $19 million toward the $52 million strategists expect to dole out before Election Day.
But labor groups are trailing their big Republican counterparts in terms of overall ad spending: the SEIU has spent a total of $6.3 million on ad buys and the American Federation for State, County, and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) has spent $7.1 million so far. By comparison, the Chamber has spent $20 million, and American Crossroads has dropped $13.5 million—and that’s only what’s been reported so far, before the blizzard of spending that accompanies the final weeks of any election.
The AFL-CIO originally supported the Citizens United Supreme Court ruling, as the ruling lifted spending restrictions for both corporations and labor unions, and was wary about supporting campaign finance legislation that would require greater donor disclosure.
But having watched the ascendancy of outside GOP goliaths like American Crossroads, labor’s holdouts seemed to have changed their tune: AFL-CIO Richard Trumka said this week that he would unabashedly support greater disclosure requirements.
* All that Rove cash doesn’t seem to be working too well against Alexi Giannoulias, however. FiveThirtyEight gave Republican Mark Kirk a 56 percent chance of winning the US Senate race last week. It now gives Giannoulias a 53 percent shot, but the site’s model has this contest extremely close…
* Flip-flop website: The flip-flop website also points to a TV interview in which Schilling called a bill that in part funds the salaries of hundreds of teachers in the 17th Congressional District “one of the more appropriate spending bills that we can have.” The site contrasts that statement with Schilling’s later opposition to the same bill, reported on a GOP website.
* Michelle Obama: Giannoulias ‘will be a phenomenal senator’: At her second event of the night, Obama stood on the stage with Democratic Representatives Debbie Halvorson and Bill Foster and Dan Seals, who is hoping to replace Rep. Mark Kirk in the North Shore’s 10th district. Her husband needs all their votes, she said.
* Republican Bill Kelly lost badly to Judy Baar Topinka in the comptroller’s primary last February. He now has a Saturday evening show on WiND Radio and contributes to a page at the Washington Times’ community website called “Tea Party Report.”
He’s more of a “teaparazzo” than an actual journalist and freely admitted in a recent press release that what he does is theatrical…
The host is known for his high octane political antics with an entertainment bent.
Kelly really got under the skin of a couple of high octane Chicago TV reporters the other day who were attempting to interview Rahm Emanuel. Kelly appeared more interested in “asking” loaded questions and interrupting the proceedings than actually listening, and at one point CBS2’s Jay Levine angrily threatened to deck the guy. Kelly’s video is a must-watch…
Our politics today.
I can empathize with being shut out of the process because I, too, was ostracized for a long while for not being a “traditional” journalist as defined by the big boys. On the other hand, being an obnoxious goof and attempting to scream out political points instead of asking actual questions gives the rest of us in the alternative news delivery business a bad name.
* And while we’re on this topic, you wouldn’t think that a news service which is regularly used by 45 Illinois newspapers, 100 radio stations and a bunch of TV stations would be kept out of the Illinois Legislative Correspondents’ Association, but that’s exactly what is happening now to Illinois Statehouse News.
The company’s founder is a prominent member of the Right, but ISN has put out a decent product and has hired some top-notch reporters like Ben Yount, who came over from Metro Networks. I’ve often used their videos and regularly use their items on this site.
I don’t attend Correspondence Association meetings because I’m not headquartered at the Statehouse and don’t particularly care what happens at them, but I wish I’d have known about the group’s latest meeting because I would’ve stood up for Illinois Statehouse News. Instead, the members voted to refuse giving ISN entré to our little club. They’ve more than earned their stripes, as far as I’m concerned. Another vote is expected next month. We ought to do the right thing here.
The problem may be that iSN gives its content away. So they’re seen as an unfair competitor by some, and there’s been some worries expressed that they could make “legit” operations obsolete and then they could start revealing their “true” colors. But they’re not going away just because they don’t have a Statehouse office. They’re headquartered right across the street, for crying out loud.
We don’t have to give every jamoke with a website and a YouTube account automatic ILCA membership, but there are some excellent websites out there which are producing quality stuff. Turning our backs on the future is what got the news industry into so much trouble to begin with.
* And speaking of alternative news sites, Progress Illinois has posted highlights from last night’s rally featuring Vice President Biden. I’ll bet you didn’t read about Lisa Madigan’s ear-shattering shrieking voice in the papers today…
Oh baby! Nothing says election like a politician and a cuddly kid. Illinois Republicans are hoping the sight of a newborn combined with a state budget calamity will induce voters to throw a tantrum.
With three weeks to go before the election, three billboards just popped up in the northwest suburbs.
The goal? To throw Democratic legislators loyal to the most powerful man in the state, Michael Madigan, out on their ears. A dozen state House wins are all that’s needed to turn that chamber blue to red.
And drop-kick Madigan out as speaker. […]
As to the billboards put up by House Republicans?
“Sounds like another one of those low-grade high school pranks,” Brown said dismissively. “It’s the usual bluster, but lack of execution.”
Maybe, baby, that’s right.
But just imagine if — finally — it’s not.
* The Alternate Question: Would you prefer Tom Cross or Mike Madigan as Speaker? Explain.
Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor Sheila Simon said she believes the voters of Illinois are ready for some real answers and real solutions to financial problems facing the state.
“There are a lot of people who understand the big picture of where we are as a state, and they are willing to take the medicine,” Simon told members of The Southern Illinoisan editorial board Tuesday morning.
A majority of voters Simon has spoken to would be willing to accept an income tax increase, particularly if the money went to a focused purpose like education.
* The Question: Do you agree or disagree with Simon that voters may be ready to accept a targeted income tax increase? Explain.
*** UPDATE *** Alexi Giannoulias’ lawyers have sent letters to state’s attorneys, county clerks and the attorney general asking for an investigation of Mark Kirk’s “voter integrity” project. The lawyers have also asked that the offices “provide additional legal and law enforcement personnel” to the targeted areas “in order to ensure that every vote is cast and counted legally.”
* Republican US Senate candidate Mark Kirk is being criticized for saying he has “now funded the largest voter integrity” program in 15 years in Illinois. Kirk told Republicans on a conference call, obtained by ArchPundit, that he’s deploying lawyers to “key, vulnerable precincts,” to guard against fraud. All of the places Kirk mentioned, however, have high numbers of black people, including the South and West Sides of Chicago, Rockford, Metro East, “where the other side might be tempted to jigger the numbers somewhat.” Listen…
* Kirk has taken some heat over the use of the word “jigger,” but I’d rather not go there. It seems a bit much to me. And, frankly, it distracts from the real issue.
Often when campaigns deploy these armies of lawyers, their aim is to suppress the vote, not ensure ballot integrity. The lawyers hover everywhere and will do things like demand voters produce identification, or check for any tiny technical errors committed by polling judges. Anything to prolong the process might also discourage people waiting in line. With today’s electronic voting, it’s pretty tough and highly unusual to stuff ballot boxes, but it’s a handy excuse to use while you’re suppressing turnout.
* The Kirk campaign points to a recent voter fraud case in the Metro East for justification…
“Congressman Kirk supports statewide efforts to combat machine politics and voter fraud that is well-known in Illinois,” read a statement Thursday issued by Kirk spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski. “Just this week, two individuals pled guilty to vote fraud in Metro East. Voter fraud dilutes votes and disenfranchises citizens.”
But that case, as Larry notes, was about absentee voting, not election-day, precinct-level voting, which is what the Kirk people say they are fighting. Apples and oranges.
* It’s Kirk’s right to do this. There’s nothing illegal about it as long as his operatives stay within the law come election day. Polls show that black voters aren’t backing him at all and there’s a big push by Democrats now to turn out black voters, so I can even see why he’s doing it. But bragging about voter suppression efforts in black precincts is more than a little unseemly. He pretty much deserves whatever heat he gets. Cindi Canary of the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform is right…
“Congressman Kirk is correct that on occasion people are busted for voter fraud but it’s an extraordinarily inefficient if not impossible way to mess with an election and it’s certainly not the province of any political group or political machine or ethnic group,” Canary said.
Canary also said that she wasn’t surprised the targeted districts are made up of mostly African Americans.
“I think there may be something there and even more broadly it’s the urban vote versus the suburban and exurban vote. It’s kind of like saying voter fraud is a symptom of African American voters,” Canary explained. “This is not necessarily the voter population that he’s likely to win.”
* Meanwhile, Mark Kirk’s new TV ad is called “Truth.” Rate it…
GOP Senate nominee Mark Kirk got off a line he should have used in [Sunday’s] TV debate.
Referring to Democratic foe Alexi Giannoulias, who was several groups ahead of him in the parade, Mr. Kirk quipped, “When you went to Miami to see Michael ‘Jaws’ Giorango, what did you talk about?”
Ouch! Mr. Giannoulias has said he didn’t know “the full extent” of Jaws’ and other Broadway Bank clients’ mob-related criminal past.
As I’ve written before, that Miami trip is the single largest unanswered question about Giannoulias’ role at the bank. I’m kinda surprised there’s been so little attention to it.
* Roundup…
* Kirk, Giannoulias on gays in military ruling: Democrat Alexi Giannoulias praised Tuesday’s decision to stop a policy he called “discriminatory” and “unconstitutional.”
A spokeswoman for Republican Mark Kirk says he doesn’t believe a decision should be made until the Joint Chiefs of Staff issue their report on the policy in December.
* The Hill has released a new poll for the 10th Congressional District which tracks fairly well with the Democrats’ own released polling. Democrat Dan Seals leads Republican Bob Dold in the open seat contest by twelve points, 49-37…
Voters are split along party lines, with independents slightly favoring Seals, 42 percent to Dold’s 33. Seals also wins with male and female voters and across all age groups.
President Obama easily carried this district with 61 percent in 2008, and he gets a high approval rating from voters: Fifty-six percent say he’s doing a good job. That could help Seals, as 65 percent say the president is an important factor in their vote.
Kirk’s district has been a longtime Democratic target, and Seals came within 6 percent of beating him in 2006 and 2008. At one point, Seals was reported to be under consideration for appointment to Obama’s Senate seat, a spot that ultimately went to Roland Burris (D).
The NRCC has spent around $242,000 in this district, while the DCCC has spent about $271,000.
Methodology…
The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 405 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
They polled over six days? Odd, that. Also, they haven’t posted crosstabs for this one yet. Not sure why.
…Adding… A commenter found some limited crosstabs. Click here. Thanks much.
The spots are significant because they show that labor is carefully picking its races this year. Unions readily admit they are going to be outspent by conservative third party groups, but they still plan to play a large role in selected races.
It is also important to note that SEIU is going in for Hare, who represents a district that President Obama carried with 57 percent of the vote. Hare wasn’t considered highly vulnerable until about a month ago, when Republican polls showed his race with Schilling to be much tighter than anticipated. The DCCC consequently reserved air time in Hare’s district.
The ad will air in the Quad Cities area of Illinois for a week starting today. The SEIU is spending more than $317K on airing the ads.
“150,000. That’s how many Illinois jobs have been lost to unfair trade deals,” the ad says. “But Bobby Schilling supports a new free trade deal with Korea. And Schilling says he’d support even more free trade deals.”
* Hare’s Republican opponent Bobby Schilling also has a new TV ad called “Phil Hare was Here.” Rate it…
* This has to be one of the stranger political stories of the year. Two men of advanced age get into a physical tussle over the placement of a Bob Dold sign in Wilmette, of all towns…
It began at about 2 p.m. on Oct. 4 in the 1300 block of Sheridan Road, along the sidewalk of a vacant property just south of Langdon Park. An 85-year-old man with a walker apparently pulled two political yard-signs out of the ground and tossed them aside.
The property’s owner lives in the house next door – a 60-year-old woman and her 92-year-old father. The woman’s father began picking up the signs when the 85-year-old started yelling at him, according to a police report.
The woman came to her father’s defense, but when she tried to plant one of the signs back in the ground, the 85-year-old grabbed it. During the ensuing tug-of-war, the man allegedly hit the woman in the side of the head and shoulder. Then he lost his grip on the sign, and fell backwards over his walker, police said.
When police arrived, they offered to take the man to the hospital after he complained of a sore hip, but he refused. The man claimed the yard signs were on public property, but when a police officer disagreed, the man called him, “an idiot and a liar,” according to the police report.
“Then he lost his grip on the sign, and fell backwards over his walker.” People. Please. Relax a bit out there.
In August, one in 2,500 homes in Sangamon County had received foreclosure notices, according to RealtyTrac, a national listing and data company. Statewide, the figure was one in 314 and nationally, one in 381.
Still, TSP-Hope Inc. executive director Ron Fafoglia said requests come in daily for help through the group’s mortgage and foreclosure counseling program. But foreclosure suspensions by major lenders and federal mortgage modification incentives have had little effect, he said.
The latest harvest estimate of 160 bushels an acre, released Tuesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, was down 14 bushels an acre from early September. Estimated yields are down more than 11 percent since early August.
“It’s a huge drop,” said University of Illinois Extension agronomist Emerson Nafziger. “In my 29 seasons, I don’t think I’ve seen one that large. […]
Corn prices have spiked as a result, closing at $5.79 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday compared to a little less than $5 late last week.
In one development, Alderman Bob Fioretti (2nd), who is expected to run for mayor, asked that the mayor provide real figures on revenues and expenditures for the first nine months of the year, rather than the traditional “projected” numbers.
* Daley budget expected to leave long-term woes to successor
The spending plan will be a mostly hold-the-line proposal without tax or fee increases. And it will put up to 200 more cops on the streets, the mayor announced Tuesday.
But the financial blueprint also won’t include the kind of major cost-saving overhaul of city government budget watchdogs say is needed. Instead, Daley is simply bequeathing years of money woes to the city’s next chief executive, critics contend.
* Municipal Pension Tabs Average $15,000 Per Household
…and if you live in Chicago, the ultimate bill for years of unfunded promises to municipal employees is much, much worse. Like $42,000 per household, according to a new study by Robert Novy-Marx of the University of Rochester and Northwestern University’s Joshua Rauh.
* Chicago’s deepening pension hole; Alexi’s TARP waffle?
* Bed Bugs Hit Chicago Public Schools’ Headquarters
More than 572,000 passengers took Amtrak between St. Louis and Chicago in the just-completed federal fiscal year, a 13.1 percent increase that made the route one of the fastest growing in the country. […]
The Chicago-St. Louis service was the seventh-fastest-growing route of nearly 50 operated by Amtrak nationwide. The route was also among nine that carried more than 500,000 passengers for the fiscal year.
The Quincy-to-Chicago Amtrak route saw a 3.4 percent increase in ridership during the 2009 federal fiscal year, and Mayor John Spring told aldermen Tuesday that it bodes well for the city’s hopes of building a $6 million intermodal facility using funds set aside in the state’s capital bill.
The Sun-Times has obtained a copy of the Oct. 7 letter to Weis, penned by Earl Dunlap, head of the Cook County Juvenile Temporary Detention Center, that reads in part: “Over the next few months, the Cook County Juvenile Temporary Detention Center will be transitioning to a new staffing plan, which may potentially result in a job loss for over 200 JTDC employees. Hostilities have been growing among some staff members in connection with this plan, and there have been credible threats of violence.”
Citing property tax payments that aren’t due until December, City Manager Sarah Phillips said the staff recommends the city issue a tax anticipation note of $1.5 million for a short-term loan.
* Yesterday’s winner was “OneMan” for his series of comments about that photo of Pat Quinn’s empty refrigerator…
He may not have any money for food but he is going to be getting a new Stainless Sub-Zero fridge since that money comes out of a different budget.
Only I have the mustard to get us out of this jam.
Well I was going to go to Jewel, but then I heard Dominick’s was better, however Whole Foods would appeal to part of my base, but then again shouldn’t I help the small local grocer.
It turns out Governor Quinn did not know someone was providing ‘early release’ to his food. Once he found out about it he stopped it immediately. Pat Quinn, concerned about his fridge, just not aware of it.
My fridge has jam in it now, it isn’t empty, it’s getting more full all the time, that’s progress, that’s Pat Quinn.
And my favorite…
When asked what was in the box on the middle shelf, Quinn answered, “Not Jason Plummer’s tax returns to be leaked in two weeks, that’s for sure.”
E-mail me, Henry, and we’ll drink heavily.
* Today’s contest features a photo of Congressman Mark Kirk…
As always, the winner gets at least an hour of cocktails with yours truly, and maybe OneMan as well. Let’s make it a twofer!
* Not a single Democrat was quoted - even on background - for this Tribune piece, which suggests that the author hyped his lede…
While Scott Lee Cohen is casting himself as an alternative to established party candidates for governor, running mate Baxter Swilley is a main reason Democrats are worried.
See, Swilley is black, so Democrats must be worried. Except that nobody knows who the guy is. Swilley has a bunch of yard signs planted, but he’s not exactly a household name. Could a black lt. governor candidate sway a few votes in what could turn out to be a close race? I suppose so, but the real problem isn’t Swilley, it’s the money, time and message that Scott Lee Cohen is aiming at black neighborhoods.
But records show his personal issues continue. On August 23, the judge in his Cook County divorce case issued an order to arrest Cohen if he didn’t cough up $3,210 in support payments within a week. He paid. […]
On Friday, York-Cohen’s attorney appeared in court and asked a circuit judge to force Cohen to turn over evidence of how he is funding his campaign when he is chronically behind in his support payments
Oops.
We’ve seen at least one politician go to prison in this state because he failed to keep his ex-wife happy: Former Attorney General Bill Scott. The lawyer for Scott’s ex asked for a piece of the AG’s campaign slush fund during child support proceedings. Scott did a year and a day in prison, if memory serves. I’m not suggesting that this could happen to SLC, I’m just saying that when you’re running for office it’s always best to make sure the ex is cool with the flow.
* In other also-ran news, Green Party gubernatorial nominee Rich Whitney has a new Internet promo video. It’s not bad for an amateur…
*** UPDATE *** I forgot to post this Cohen story. The candidate believes all the polls are wrong and he’s gonna win…
Scott Lee Cohen, running as an independent candidate for Illinois governor, campaigned in Quincy on Tuesday and discounted polls that show he is running a distant third behind Gov. Pat Quinn and Republican challenger Bill Brady.
Cohen said the polls are inaccurate, and he claims he has much more than the 14 percent following that was his high water mark among a flurry of recent polls.
“The mainstream media is trying to minimize my campaign … no offense. But it’s not working,” Cohen said. “I’m in this to win and have been since day one.”
A top executive at Tribune Co., parent of the Chicago Tribune, e-mailed a company-wide memo Monday that contained links to off-color satirical videos, including one he labeled “[Expletive deleted]” in which a gyrating woman appears to pour liquor on her bare breasts.
The note to employees in Chicago and elsewhere from Lee Abrams, Tribune Co.’s chief innovation officer, came less than a week after an unflattering New York Times front-page story characterized the Chicago-based media concern’s top management as fostering a poisonous, sexist “frat house” atmosphere.
Abrams’ memo spurred complaints to Tribune Co.’s human resources department from Chicago Tribune Editor Gerould Kern and others, upset at the sexual content. Abrams was not immediately available for comment.
“I thought it was offensive and I thought it was completely inappropriate to be sent out in a workplace setting to everyone in this company,” Kern said Tuesday. “We’ve had some employees complain as well, and I took it to HR.” […]
“This is not the way it is at the Chicago Tribune and it is not the way it is in the newsroom, and the way you communicate that to people is by complaining about it and getting it stopped,” Kern said.
Way to destroy the brand, frat boys.
If the rest of the local media starts to pick up on these crazy stories, you have to wonder whether the coverage might impact the paper’s candidate endorsements. Probably not, but I still wonder.
Granted, the Tribune has done a diligent job of covering the business and legal sides of its company’s epic bankruptcy, reporting on the chicanery that led to Zell’s “deal from hell” and the struggles to emerge with a settlement. But except for a few artfully worded posts on Rosenthal’s blog, the sordid reign of Michaels & Co. has been all but ignored by the World’s Greatest Newspaper and its numerous print and broadcast confederates.
Once Carr’s New York Times blockbuster hit, how did the Tribune respond? By circling the wagons at first and printing a ludicrous broadside from Michaels, who urged employees to “ignore the noise” and who sought to impugn the motives and reputation of the writer. (That’s standard operating procedure for Michaels, who tried to discredit my reporting on him earlier this year by labeling me “an out-of-work blogger” and someone who is “no longer paid to be in media.”)
The timidity of so many journalists at the Tribune, WGN-Channel 9 and WGN-AM (720) to speak out makes me admire Roger Ebert even more for the way in which he took on Conrad Black and David Radler, the two crooks who nearly ran the Sun-Times into the ground a few years ago. Or the way Carol Marin and Ron Magers confronted their NBC bosses at WMAQ-Channel 5 in the late ’90s. Or the way Mike Royko stood up to Rupert Murdoch when he took over the Sun-Times in the early ’80s. Who is their counterpart when Tribune Co. is in crisis? Colonel Tribune?
What’s ultimately at stake is the credibility and authority of the Tribune to exert its influence over all the other institutions it covers. In the aftermath of the New York Times piece last week, Kern posted a memo in which he extolled his newsroom’s “highest professional, ethical and moral standards.” Confronting Abrams on Tuesday was another step in the right direction. But I’m afraid both moves are too little, too late.
The editorial board never lets a day go by without telling somebody how to live their lives. A mirror might be handy.
* As you already know, Bill Brady is running two ads attacking Gov. Pat Quinn on the early release scandal (click here and here to refresh your memory). Quinn let those ads run for about a week without responding, but he is now.
…Adding… Two commenters sum it up well. It’s just me…
Idiots. You never repeat the accusation. You offer something to dilute it, like an ad showing how Quinn redirected money to a rape crisis center. They are treating voters like they listen to and remember every commercial they see or hear. There simply are too many and voters don’t remember the content of the ad, they only remember the message (Pat Quinn is soft on crime).
Dirt Digger…
It repeats the charge and emphasizes that Quinn is responsible for everything.
Frankly unless I had already seen a seemingly neverending series of Slade-White ads for Quinn I would have trouble telling this is not actually attacking him.
I fail to see the justification for the departure from the standard call opponent a liar, state one germane fact and attack opponent on other grounds script.
Watch the ad with the sound off and it looks like it’s a Brady ad attacking Quinn. This is really a bad idea.
* The House Republicans are doing whatever they can to get under Mike Madigan’s skin. From Greg Hinz…
The battle for control of the Illinois House is getting personal — really personal.
Over the weekend, House Republican Leader Tom Cross’ organization put up three large billboards aimed straight at his Democratic counterpart, longtime Speaker Mike Madigan.
The ads went up along Interstates 90 and 294 in the northwest suburbs, and Team Cross is hoping lots of motorists who live in swing districts in that area will see the billboards and act accordingly.
Brady responded that Quinn’s handling of state finances has been obscured by secrecy and that he thinks a forensic audit will give a clear idea of other areas of state finances that could be cut or made more efficient.
“Until we do an audit, it will be hard to judge the priorities,” Brady said.
But Auditor General Bill Holland had some very unkind words about such a proposal when he testified to the General Assembly earlier this year. Watch it…
The measures lawmakers - mainly Republicans - are pushing now call for an analysis of “all state spending, hiring, procurement, and contracts awarded and the appointment of board and commission officials and decisions made by boards and commissions or those with procurement or hiring authority” from 2001 through 2010.
Here’s the reality check: For state spending alone, there are more than 130 million transactions over that period, from checks issued for mere pennies to lump-sum payments in the tens of millions. A thorough review can be expected to take years, not weeks or months. Any politician who implies the results would be in by their January inauguration - or by the start of the next fiscal year on July 1, 2011 - is … well, dreaming. Auditor General Bill Holland - who has repeatedly proven to be one of the straightest shooters in Illinois government - previously told the Chicago Tribune that the price tag on such an in-depth analysis would be “astronomical,” reaching “hundreds of millions of dollars.”
…Adding… The Brady campaign says they want a “business audit,” not necessarily a “forensic audit.” But a normal Auditor General compliance audit of a single state agency takes nine to twelve months to complete. No way could that be accomplished in time for the budget address.
* Meanwhile, over in the US Senate race, the Tribune weighs in on whether Alexi Giannoulias knew or should’ve known about the extent of criminal activity by a couple of people his family’s bank loaned money to…
It’s probably true that Giannoulias was not fully briefed on their illegal activity, which is the sort of thing felons rarely publicize even to their financial enablers. But he and his colleagues did know — or should have known — enough to show these clients the door.
While I agree that Giannoulias probably isn’t being truthful about what he knew and when he knew it, the gigantic hole in the Tribune’s argument is that lots of other Chicago banks loaned money to those guys as well. Also, considering that recent New York Times article, the Tribune might want to be just a little bit careful about warning banks to avoid lending money to unsavory types.
* The Hill’s poll last week had Republican Adam Kinzinger crushing freshman Congresscritter Debbie Halvorson 49-31. Democrats, however, said the poll looked weird because the universe had changed so drastically. President Obama, for instance, won the 11th District with 53 percent two years ago, but the universe in The Hill’s poll had just 41 percent of likely voters saying they voted for him, compared to John McCain’s 47.
So, the Halvorson campaign decided to release its own numbers. They say they’re behind, but only by four points…
* Adam Kinzinger leads, but only by a small 45% to 41% margin. This is an extremely close race, and the momentum seems to be on Halvorson’s side after her strong early buy on Chicago broadcast television.
* Halvorson is getting movement with key subgroups. She leads with women and she leads with union households in one of the heaviest union districts in the country. Even though independents are breaking against Democrats in many districts, Halvorson and Kinzinger are in a virtual dead heat among them (40% Kinzinger / 37% Halvorson).
Anzalone Liszt claims that Kinzinger’s lead has been halved since August, and that her 2000 ratings points on the teevee has helped make this thing close. Methodology…
Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2010 general election voters in IL CD-11. Interviews were conducted between October 5-7, 2010. Respondents were selected at random, and interviews were apportioned geographically based on expected voters turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for n=500 is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level.
Keep in mind that this is a candidate poll, so take it for what it’s worth. However, a whole lotta Illinois Dems are relying on Anzalone Liszt this year. If they’re wrong, then there will be plenty of unpleasant surprises all around.
*** UPDATE 1 *** From the Kinzinger campaign…
Hey Rich:
FYI - Halvorson went dark last friday and has canceled all other time…while DCCC has canceled all but 400K for her for the final week (they previously had scheduled 1.4 mill …then were at 1.1 mill until this latest cancel).
Checking…
*** UPDATE 2 *** From the Halvorson campaign…
We’re still up on Chicago broadcast today (I confirmed that with our firm).
From what I know, the DCCC hasn’t allocated the funds for Chicago broadcast to any of the big three races at this point. I’ll certainly let you know when they do.
* Hare defends efforts to attract jobs: “I’m not going to sit back and just watch and go, ‘Well, you know, I know they need the money and I know it would put people to work, but I just, I don’t want to be criticized for doing it,’” Hare said. “If I could get a plant located here in this community and I knew it would take federal money to do it, I will tell you, I’d go to work on it tomorrow morning.” Terry Schilling, son and campaign manager for the GOP candidate, responded that, “The only thing that Representative Hare has built is $5 trillion of debt for our children and grandchildren.”
* Schoenburg: Hare-Schilling back-and-forth intensifies: Six months ago, a self-described “tea party blogger” from suburban St. Louis said “Jackpot” when U.S. Rep. PHIL HARE, D-Rock Island, gave the perfect sound bite for the YouTube age. As it turns out, TV stations might be the real jackpot winners. A conservative Iowa-based group says it is spending $500,000 to air an advertisement that includes the video of Hare’s comments.
* VIDEO: Phil Hare talks about why he’s running for office during an interview with The State Journal-Register editorial board.
Trying to clear a two-year backlog of violation notices, the Illinois Tollway says it is willing to forgive some hefty fines accrued by Indiana motorists who didn’t pay their tolls.
Of the nearly $7 million in outstanding tolls and fines racked up by some 116,000 Indiana motorists, the tollway said it’s willing to settle in many but not all cases for getting at least the tolls back, about $1.5 million.
As the bills go out, some drivers in the Hoosier state are getting eye-popping notices, saying they owe between $14,000 and $25,000, the tollway says.
Carla Oglesby is charged with theft, money laundering and official misconduct while on the county payroll as Todd Stroger’s deputy chief of staff. […]
And, although Alvarez held open the possibility that others might later be charged, the sources said many of those referred to in the criminal complaint might have had only an unwitting role.
Alvarez would not say whether Stroger — who lost in last winter’s Democratic Party primary to Ald. Toni Preckwinkle and is set to leave office after next month’s general election — is a target of the continuing investigation. […]
Public Official B: David Ramos, who is executive director of the Cook County Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. […]
Public Official C: Eugene Mullins, who has been a friend of Stroger’s since childhood and now heads Stroger’s county public relations office.[…]
Public Official D: Chris Geovanis, a Stroger spokeswoman who reports to Mullins.
The raises came despite the fact that as early as August 2008, area transit agencies knew the revenue outlook was not as bright as they had hoped after the January transit bailout, with sales tax revenues which fund transit 9 percent lower than expected, and free rides for seniors bleeding revenue.
Only at the CTA did payroll fall from 2008 to 2009.
CUB issued a report called “Dodging The Wireless Industry’s Pitfalls to alert consumers to problems that cost users of CUB’s free online comparison service an average of $359 extra per year.
Culprits include paying for extras like insurance, directory assistance or even roadside assistance, which CUB Executive Director David Kolata said are a waste.
“And paying for minutes that are not used has become an epidemic, Kolata said during an interview.
* Report: Most Illinois Cell Phone Users Overpaying
The increase, if approved, would push the sales tax rate in the village from 7.5 percent to 7.75 percent the same as the rate in the Kane County portion of Elgin and lower than the rates in Carpentersville, West Dundee and the Kane County portion of East Dundee.
The board also aims to recognize his unsuccessful effort to bring a federal courthouse and office building to DuPage County, said County Board Chairman Robert Schillerstrom.
The proposed 1.95 percent tax increase is expected to generate $450,000 to cover the city’s obligations toward the rising costs of police and fire pensions, which by state statute must be fully funded by 2033. No other tax or fee increases are proposed in the $97.9 million budget for the 2011 calendar year.
Trustee Robin Meier had proposed the addition, and the other board members agreed it was a good idea. The matter could come before the board again at its next meeting in two weeks.
We’ve been grousing for months about the bogus recall amendment that appears on the Nov. 2 ballot, but make no mistake: We urge you to vote yes. […]
We support a broader measure that would allow the recall of all state executive officers and legislators. With public pressure mounting, lawmakers offered up a feeble measure that shields every elected official but one, and that’s all you’re going to get if you let them get away with it.
To be allowed to circulate petitions, those pushing the recall must first file an affidavit of intent to do so.
This affidavit needs to have not only the signatures of the proponents of the recall petitions, but that of at least 20 members of the state House of Representatives and 10 members of the state Senate.
The real catch is that half of these legislators — 10 from the House and five from the Senate — must be from each major political party.
Without a criminal indictment in the offing, it’s hard to believe that there would be 15 elected Republicans willing to begin the proceedings to oust a Republican governor or 15 Democrats willing to do the same to a Democratic governor.
Yet in the wake of the Blagojevich mess, politicians in Springfield had to “do something” to make it appear they were trying to clean up corruption.
So they put a recall amendment on the November ballot in the hopes that the electorate would feel good about the prospects of removing a corrupt or ineffective elected official from office.
There’s not much to feel good about in this proposal. You should vote no.
Even if you think a recall amendment is necessary, the proposal on the November ballot is worthless.
* The full text of the proposed constitutional amendment is here.
* The Question: How are you voting on this constitutional amendment? Explain.
* A new poll conducted by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale has Bill Brady opening up a nine-point lead over Gov. Pat Quinn, which is inconsistent with all but one poll taken earlier this month that either had the race super-close or Quinn ahead. But there are a ton of undecideds in this poll and the pollster didn’t push voters to say who they were leaning toward. Let’s have a look…
Quinn 29.8%
Bill Brady 38.4%
Whitney 2.2%
Green 1.5%
Cohen 5.9%
Someone else 2.6%
Don’t know 19.5%
Why include “Someone else” when they have all the ballot names? That many people won’t write in somebody. Also, this poll was taken over eleven days, which is a lot.
And to give you an idea about those undecideds, the Tribune had them at 12 percent, PPP had them at 11 percent and CNN had them at 4 percent and Rasmussen (thrown in just to give you an idea) had them at 8 percent.
* Still, the US Senate numbers seem to match up with everybody else…
Although, again, there’s an inordinately huge number of undecideds.
* This next question is hugely bad news for Democrats. A tied generic congressional ballot means doom because so many Democratic districts are overwhelmingly D…
If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican Party’s candidate OR the Democratic Party’s candidate for Congress in your district?
* Check out the difference between the national right track/wrong track numbers and those for Illinois and local…
We would like to know what you think about the direction of the United States of America. Generally speaking, do you think things in our country are going in the right direction, or are they off track and heading in the wrong direction?
Right direction 29.4%
Wrong direction 62.4%
Other/Don’t know 8.2%
And what about the direction of the State of Illinois? Generally speaking, are things in Illinois going in the right direction, or are they off track and heading in the wrong direction?
Right direction 11.1%
Wrong direction 81.3%
Other/Don’t know 7.7%
And how are things going in your city or area of the state? In general, are things in your city or area going in the right direction, or are they off track and heading in the wrong direction?
Right direction 45.5%
Wrong direction 42.9%
Other/Don’t know 11.6%
Incumbent legislators: Watch out, unless you can make yourself look like a local.
* Methodology…
758 likely voters taken Sept. 30 to Oct. 10. The margin for error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points
Republican candidate for governor Bill Brady said Monday he does not plan to push a conservative social agenda if elected, with the exception of legislation requiring parental notification of teens seeking abortions.
“I don’t think we’ve laid out an agenda in this campaign that deals with that, the Bloomington state senator said at a Daily Herald editorial endorsement interview. […]
Quinn last week said he believed civil unions would be passed into law by the time “Christmas comes around.
If that happens, Brady said, he would not move to overturn the legislation.
“The legislature would have spoken, he said. […]
Brady said the “legislative process will determine the state’s agenda on social issues.
One wonders whether the social conservatives will sit still for this, or if they’ll just keep their powder dry knowing they’ll have an ally if Brady is elected. Thoughts?
Look, we like Quinn personally. We think he means well. But he’s not equipped to get Illinois out of this sorry situation.
That leaves no choice but the Republican nominee. There are three minority party candidates on the ballot and another who’s a write-in, but they are not realistic options. At most, they are protest votes, and the problem with that kind of protest is it could put Quinn back in office.
With that as the backdrop, we endorse state Sen. Bill Brady of Bloomington for governor.
Not an ideal candidate, Brady’s personal views veer to the right of our tastes and the well-being of the state, but we take him at his word that he won’t push a social agenda as governor and we call on him to govern from the middle.
Apparently, Brady’s promise about social issues was good enough for the DH. Is it for you?
* Related…
* Merchants endorse Brady for guv: One item in IRMA’s press release that I found particularly notable was its implication, as per the above, that a Brady-backed tax hike might come later, after spending cuts. Mr. Brady has said he’s against any tax increase ever, which makes me wonder if IRMA knows something us lesser mortals don’t. Mr. Vite, in a phone call, denied that Mr. Brady had encouraged such speculation — or in any way hinted that he could favor a tax increase. The implied speculation came strictly from IRMA, not Mr. Brady, Mr. Vite said.
* There’s something happening here, according to my latest syndicated newspaper column. What it is ain’t exacly clear…
The race for governor appears to be seriously tightening. The U.S. Senate race has been close all along. Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Secretary of State Jesse White, both Democrats, surely are heading for big wins next month.
But Republicans are doing quite well in congressional and state legislative races pretty much all over Illinois, except in the “bluest” of the blue regions in and near Chicago. Down-ballot Democratic incumbents are running scared all over the place.
And if you want to see how truly weird this election year is, then head on over to House Speaker Michael Madigan’s Southwest Side district. Madigan has sent five campaign mailers to his constituents over the past several days.
The last time Madigan spent even a few dollars on his own election was six years ago, when he beat his hapless Republican opponent with almost 80 percent of the vote. Two years ago, without spending a dime, he won by even more.
Madigan has told his House Democratic members, including many of his “safe” members, that they’d better not take anything for granted this year. He’s apparently taking his own advice.
Madigan has been whacked several times recently by the Chicago Tribune, including a high-profile column mocking him for hand-picking a no-show Republican opponent. The Tribune has connected him to the University of Illinois admissions scandal. The paper published a story about how he’s done various favors in the property business, and it just published a convoluted and not so solid piece about the FBI looking into how a town in Madigan’s district picked an attorney based on his recommendation.
But to give you an idea of how truly strange Madigan’s reaction is, the longtime House speaker’s personal direct-mail program is pretty much on par with what’s being done for Madigan’s most politically vulnerable Democratic incumbents. As of last week, five pieces in the mailboxes with more than three weeks to go before Election Day represents a very significant effort.
“It’s a lot of (expletive deleted) money,” deadpanned one person who is heavily involved with legislative mail programs.
Madigan indeed is concerned about the “slop from the Tribune,” according to his spokesman. So far, however, none of his mailers has addressed the accusations leveled by the city newspaper.
Instead, one has talked about saving American jobs, another has played up his role in impeaching former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, one was about how he’d helped senior citizens, one targeted the evil bankers and another was about his work against sex offenders.
The speaker has been putting “the fear” into traditional Democratic campaign contributors lately about how he might not be able to hold the House. But a longtime friend of Madigan’s insisted last week that the longest-serving House speaker in the state’s history is just clanging the alarm bells as hard as he can in order to raise more money.
Whatever he’s doing, he doesn’t appear to be taking any chances anywhere, including in his own back yard.
Madigan’s 13th Ward organization also is pumping out large numbers of absentee voter applications. A new law is in effect this year that doesn’t require any reasons for voting absentee.
In the past, some ward and township organizations have found themselves in hot water over stretching the reasoning for absentee applications. Before, you were supposed to be leaving town, or in the hospital or something. Now, voters don’t need to say why they want to vote absentee, so Machine wards like Madigan’s have gone back to the old ways.
The statewide Democratic campaigns, of course, are thrilled with this because they need to jack up the city’s vote as much as possible to override what looks like a looming Downstate bloodbath.
The Republicans raised about $3,000 at a recent downtown “fundraiser” for Madigan’s ghost opponent, and a GOP operative joked last week that since Madigan actually was taking his race seriously, they might spend that cash on yard signs. Reminded that he’d be hard-pressed to find any locations for those signs, he said they may be able to find some willing homeowners in Burr Ridge, on the far western end of Madigan’s district. Good luck with that.
