Cohen talked to The Associated Press Monday but refused to answer most questions about incidents such as accusations of violence from a former girlfriend and an order of protection sought by his wife when they were divorcing.
Cohen did call the order of protection a “sneaky” maneuver that is often used in divorces to disrupt a man’s life.
Cohen says he has “never, ever, touched, hurt or abused a woman.”
Divorce proceedings can often be chock full of lies on both sides. Many of us have seen it happen. But Cohen’s ex-wife was asked specifically earlier this year by Phil Ponce about her allegations that Cohen attempted to rape her and that she was afraid at the time for her physical well-being. “At the time that was an accurate statement,” she said. Watch it…
Take her word for it that he’s a changed man. That’s not an easy thing to do. Not everyone can do it. I give him credit for that. But it seems pretty darned clear to me that she said he did what she alleged during the early stages of the divorce proceedings. And if we believe her most recent comments, then Cohen is not telling the truth now.
In an interview Monday with The Associated Press, Cohen said Illinois should eliminate unneeded social programs, but he couldn’t name any. He said the state should do away with special funds but couldn’t provide any examples.
His candidacy is wholly unserious. We’ve given Bill Brady plenty of grief for not specifying his cuts, but he has at least put some thought into this race. Cohen has not, except for the political angle. He has no answers for real questions.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Three of the people who provide testimonials in that Cohen radio ad are Raymond Hancock, Jason Kyle and Peggy Bong. From the State Board of Elections website…
Democrat Alexi Giannoulias hopes to make China an issue in his race for U.S. Senate, a strategy he set into motion Sunday by accusing Republican opponent Mark Kirk of backing policies that benefit China while hurting American workers.
Giannoulias said Kirk, a five-term congressman, has consistently cast votes against cracking down on unfair trade practices by China and backed huge corporations that transfer jobs overseas.
“When you hear Congressman Kirk talk about job creation, he’s talking about jobs he created in China,” Giannoulias said at a news conference.
The Kirk campaign responded by accusing Giannoulias of “wanting to start a trade war” with one of the biggest customers for Illinois companies. Kirk spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski said that would endanger thousands of Illinois jobs and $2.5 billion in exports. […]
President Bill Clinton granted “most favored nation” status, for instance, while opponents of the currency and trade bill included Democratic Rep. Nancy Pelosi, now speaker of House.
On other issues, however, Kirk had few allies. He was one of just 15 members of Congress in 2005 to oppose a presidential review if American oil company Unocal reached a sales agreement with a Chinese oil company.
Also, as always, I’m really not interested in DC talking points or Econ 101, which has destroyed more college minds than all the illegal drugs in the world combined.
* Roundup…
* China getting attention in U.S. Senate race in Ill.
* We’ve seen some pretty divergent poll results lately. The Tribune had the governor’s race as a five-point game. But Rasmussen has published its latest gubernatorial poll, and they’re looking at a total blowout. Earlier Rasmussen results are in parentheses…
Brady earns support from 93% of Republicans, while just 66% of Democrats favor Quinn. Whitney captures four percent (4%) of Democrats and eight percent (8%) of voters not affiliated with either party. Brady leads Quinn by better than two-to-one among unaffiliateds.
Brady is viewed favorably by 56% of Illinois voters and unfavorably by 35%.
For Quinn, favorables are 43% and unfavorables are 53%.
Twenty-five percent (25%) have a favorable opinion of Whitney, an attorney and frequent candidate, while 32% regard him unfavorably. But 44% don’t know enough about the Green Party candidate to venture any opinion of him.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of all voters in the state say they have voted for an independent candidate in past elections, while 41% have not. Still, 43% say they are less likely to vote for an independent in this election. Twenty-seven percent (27%) say they are more likely to pull the trigger for an independent on Election Day, and another 25% say the likelihood is about the same as in past elections.
Just 35% approve of the job being done by Quinn, who took over as governor last year after Rod Blogojevich’s impeachment. Sixty-three percent (63%) disapprove of Quinn’s job performance.
After listening to Cohen, I think he’s actually running somewhere to the right of Republican nominee Bill Brady, which means he could steal away GOP votes, too, assuming voters have any idea who he is — beyond the helpful image of the guy who holds job fairs.
Unlike Brady or Quinn, Cohen has taken the Illinois Taxpayer Protection Pledge, a strict no-tax-increase promise demanded by Jim Tobin’s Tax Accountability group. Cohen is expecting the conservative group’s endorsement.
“Brady still wants to tax people, I don’t care what he says in his commercials,” said Cohen, who argues that the key to reviving Illinois’ economy is to cut taxes and ease regulations on business.
Most of Cohen’s rhetoric sounds like it’s right out of the old Republican playbook.
Maybe so, but he’s spending much of his time courting minority voters. You can follow some of his movements on Twitter to see for yourself. Also, he’s involving himself in the 17th Ward campaign on behalf of a challenger.
* Even Green Party nominee Rich Whitney is trying to appear conservative these days. From a recent op-ed…
Let’s be candid. If you identify yourself as a conservative, your first inclination will probably be to vote for Republican candidate Bill Brady in the Illinois governor’s race. I understand that. He covers some of the basic conservative talking points: cutting spending, holding the line on taxes, “pro-life,” pro-Second Amendment, pro-business.
That’s the rhetoric. Now let’s look at the substance of his positions and see how they compare with my own.
* Sometimes, you just gotta wonder what the Illinois State Board of Elections is thinking. As I told you several days ago, they don’t post a handful of campaign reports by nonprofit groups, which means a million dollars in cash is sitting out there with no easy way to find it. Why? Because they couldn’t figure out how to code their website without costing a fortune, which seems a bit odd.
[State Sen. Larry Bomke] laments a change in procedure at the State Board of Elections. Bomke for years has filed campaign finance reports that list every contribution. But with new software being used at the board for electronic filing of campaign reports, there will no longer be a way to itemize donations of $150 or less, which don’t legally have to be listed separately.
Bomke said he thinks the change oddly comes at a time when “the general public is expecting fuller disclosures.”
Campaigns do continue to keep records of all donations, and Bomke said he will make his database of all contributors — including those who give small amounts — available to interested media.
* In other government news, the State Journal-Register makes some good points about the private bidding war to operate the Illinois Lottery…
The idea of handing operations of the lottery over to its biggest contractors, as would be the case with Northstar, strikes us as analogous to General Dynamics and Raytheon assuming operations of the U.S. Department of Defense. The lottery needs an operator that can drive hard bargains with its contractors. We can’t conceive of any way an operator controlled by the biggest lottery vendors can ever accomplish this. Even with promises of firewalls between the contractor and operator sides, the very appearance should make it a non-starter.
Northstar’s main selling point is that it knows the lottery business. That’s true, but the state started this process to break with the lottery business as has been practiced here for the last 26 years.
Camelot’s experience in and record with running lotteries elsewhere make it attractive. Illinois wants growth, but we also want responsible growth. That was a significant component of Camelot’s presentation.
Also, the Illinois Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, the Women’s Business Development Center, the Chicago Minority Supplier Development Council, Chatham Business Association and the Chicago Urban League are all in support of Camelot.
Some Will County officials think the governor is about to drop the proposed Peotone airport into Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr.’s lap.
Then it would be controlled by Chicago politicians. Will County would be out of luck.
Gov. Pat Quinn will make the move — they say — during his bid for re-election. It could happen this month or maybe next. Because if Jackson controlled it, new jobs would be created for people who live on the South Side of Chicago. And that might mean votes for Quinn.
It’s not as clearcut as the article makes it sound, but there is a real political danger here for Democrats in Will County if the governor doesn’t take their positions into consideration. Will County is already a hotbed of anti-government activity. Quinn could gin that up even more if he’s not careful.
* And the University of Illinois is reimbursing its Urbana chancellor for nights he stays in his Chicago condo, and the foundation even helped furnished it…
The University of Illinois Foundation also authorized $25,000 in Herman’s discretionary funds to help furnish the condo, according to spokesman Don Kojich. Herman indicated that he frequently used the condo to entertain donors and alumni, and “we thought this was a good use,” Kojich said.
Herman could not be reached for comment.
The university reimbursed Herman for 75 percent of the standard lodging rate for Chicago hotels, the amount allowed under state law in such cases, according to UI records.
In 2008, for example, Herman received a total of $4,837 for overnight stays in Chicago, ranging from about $110 to $121 a night, records show.
Previously, he was reimbursed for his hotel costs, which were actually more expensive for the campus, said Robin Kaler, associate chancellor for public affairs. Herman’s last reimbursement for a Chicago hotel stay totaled about $203, she said.
* It’s a challenge when you have a statewide syndicated column and want to write about the Chicago mayor’s race, but I went ahead anyway this week…
Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley’s stunning decision to step down at the end of this term has at least temporarily sucked almost all the oxygen out of Illinois politics and focused just about everyone’s attention on an extremely rare open seat contest.
There hasn’t been an open seat race for mayor since 1947, when Ed Kelly stepped aside so the Machine could endorse reformer Martin Kennelly. Richard J. Daley defeated Kennelly in the 1955 primary, and the rest is history. This upcoming open seat race is just about the rarest Illinois political event most of us have seen in our lifetimes.
Since this race is so unique, one of the big worries of state Democrats is that groups allied with them could decide to husband their resources in anticipation of an all-out Chicago war next February. The mayor’s race will cost a fortune, and several aldermanic seats look to be in contention. Most of the same big groups who play statewide will also be extremely interested in holding sway over Chicago.
Some top union officials consulted last week said they had no plans at all to alter their November budgets, with one even saying that his union would borrow money if it needed the cash to compete in the mayor’s race.
However, if Gov. Pat Quinn can’t get his act together and make this battle with Republican Bill Brady a reasonably close contest, then there may be no reason to toss money down the drain with him. Better to save the cash for the city contest.
White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel was perhaps the most prominently featured potential candidate in last week’s speculation. The former congressman and Clinton White House official has long been a Daley favorite.
Emanuel reportedly won’t announce a decision until after the Nov. 2 election. That means he and the rest of the White House could be hugely damaged by the national (and Illinois) election results, so we’ll have to see how this plays out.
An Emanuel run might mean more White House focus on his home state. That could be helpful to Illinois Democrats, particularly Quinn and U.S. Senate nominee Alexi Giannoulias. If those two do poorly in Chicago and the White House wasn’t perceived as being “all in,” Emanuel will start out with a significant local handicap. Add to that any blame he gets for the party’s national losses and he’ll be seriously damaged goods - and his opponents will undoubtedly use that against him.
Attorney General Lisa Madigan has long been thought of as a potential mayoral contender, but she seems satisfied right where she is, at least for now. Madigan passed on an opportunity for U.S. Senate and governor last year, saying she thoroughly enjoyed her job. Madigan is the most popular politician in Illinois and would enjoy union support that might not coalesce behind Emanuel, who is not known for being a pro-union member of President Barack Obama’s administration.
Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart, a former state legislator, last week signaled his openness to a run. Dart is a popular, capable politician who enjoys a strong base of support. He’s greatly expanded that base by protecting homeowners facing foreclosure, crusading against online prostitution advertising and being featured in a national cable series about Cook County Jail.
Comptroller Dan Hynes reportedly was approached by unions months ago about preparing for a run, but many don’t expect Hynes to jump in after losing his second statewide primary race. State Sen. James Meeks has talked about higher office for years, but never has pulled the trigger.
There are just too many more names to delve into right now. Keep in mind that this is a nonpartisan primary with a runoff if no candidate receives at least 50 percent plus one. The contest will be who can get into that runoff, which means that a whole host of folks could think they might make it.
The business community will undoubtedly be more than a bit freaked out about losing the stability and friendship of Daley, so expect them to back a candidate. The runoff calculation and the current national mood means that even some Republicans are musing about their chances at making the final cut. Millionaire Ron Gidwitz was just one of the names mentioned last week. Gidwitz is chairing Bill Brady’s gubernatorial campaign.
* Chicago black leaders meet to discuss mayoral race: The Rev. Jesse Jackson and other black religious and political leaders from across Chicago have met to discuss the city’s upcoming mayoral race. Jackson says the leaders met Saturday to start coming up with criteria they think candidates should meet.
* I told you back in July that our good friend Matt Ryan was very sick. The former chief of staff for Will County Executive Larry Walsh passed away early this morning. His family and many, many friends are just heartbroken. I’ll post arrangements when they come in.
Health care, the energy sector and finance and accounting are the hottest areas for jobs, according to John Challenger of employment experts Challenger, Gray and Christmas. Though government data doesn’t yet reflect recent layoffs for teachers, education also remains a relatively secure profession, Challenger said, if only because “there’s always going to be children to educate.”
But workers in the housing industry face a longer wait to rebound, he said. The average Chicago area real estate broker has taken a 43 percent pay cut and now earns less than government program eligibility interviewers, whose pay they easily doubled five years ago; real estate appraisers are down 26 percent, and construction workers make 27 percent less.
Now that Mayor Daley has announced he won’t seek a seventh term in the February election, the TIF issue is ripe for debate. Several aldermen who have expressed interest in a mayoral run support tapping the TIF reserves.
A top officer with the Service Employees International Union, which is expected to be active in raising money and volunteers for a candidate, said business interests will do everything they can to keep TIF subsidies.
A bank is foreclosing on two law-office buildings owned by Edward R. Vrdolyak, but lawyers for the former Chicago alderman say it isn’t a case of the man known as “Fast Eddie” being slow in paying up.
Bianchi, of Crystal Lake, and administrative manager Joyce Synek, 62, of Woodstock, are both charged in the 26-count indictment, made public Friday. The felony charges carry a potential five-year prison term.
In February 2009, Bianchi’s former secretary, Amy Dalby, was charged with stealing documents from Bianchi’s office and handing them to a political opponent. Her attorney then sought a special prosecutor to look into her claims that she did political work for Bianchi during office hours at his behest.
In May 2009, Dalby pleaded guilty and was sentenced to probation. Last September, retired McHenry County Judge Henry Tonigan III was appointed as a special prosecutor to look into Dalby’s claims.
The idea to re-reverse the river, and undo one of the Chicago’s true engineering marvels has been floated by environmentalists and some state politicians who say restoring the flow to its natural order would help naturally clean the river and the lake, and even help the Asian carp situation.
Crain’s reported that executives with New York-based Vornado have been dropping hints along Wall Street and among potential buyers of its interest in selling the Mart division, citing sources and securities analysts. Those clues have already yielded one $1.25-billion bid for the Mart that collapsed last month by New York real estate investor Charles Cohen, CEO of Cohen Brothers Realty Corp., Crain’s reported.
Mr. Kennedy did not dispute any facts in the Crain’s story, but he said the headline of the online version of the story overstated the case because Vornado is not actively looking for buyers.
About $29 million in federal funding has been earmarked to pay for the next step in improving the Union Pacific Northwest line and three other commuter rail projects. But unless the state can match those funds dollar for dollar, Metra will lose access to the money.
Chicago Metropolis 2020, organized by the Commercial Club of Chicago, has released a new study that says the region is losing jobs and money because the state has failed to adequately invest in public transportation.
Specifically, the study calls for doubling the Illinois motor fuel tax from 19 cents to 38 cents per gallon, which some people would claim is not a tax.
It also calls for consolidation of the Chicago Transit Authority, Metra and Pace and the elimination of 1,403 township governments into “more cost-effective county transportation departments.”
Late-night negotiations Sunday did not produce a contract, and the Danville teachers’ union has gone on strike.
A one-line message atop the school district’s website on Monday says, “School is closed due to a teachers strike.”
Negotiators for the school district and Danville Education Association met late into the night on Sunday in the hopes of reaching a tentative deal and averting a strike. By 10:30, they had been bargaining with the help of a federal mediator for seven hours with only a few small breaks to eat or stretch their legs.
* Hotshot prognosticator and polling analyst Nate Silver over at the New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight site has completed his Congressional district analyses and concluded that two Democratic-held districts in Illinois may very well flip to the Republicans.
There’s a 63 percent chance that the 14th District will be captured by the Republicans, Silver writes. Democrat Bill Foster is the incumbent. State Sen. Randy Hultgren is the GOP challenger. The race is on FiveThirtyEight’s “Lean Takeover” list.
* Third-time Democratic candidate Dan Seals has just a 53 percent chance of winning the 10th District open seat contest against Republican Bob Dold, Silver says. The seat is currently held by Republican Mark Kirk. The race is on FiveThirtyEight’s “Even Chance of Takeover” list.
Silver gives Democratic incumbent Phil Hare a 74 percent chance of victory. That belies unreleased polling which definitely puts the race in play, but FiveThirtyEight still has this one on a “Takeover Possible” list.
All other incumbents of both parties here are given 100 percent chances of winning.
* Silver is predicting the Republicans have a 2 in 3 chance of taking control of the US House. His predictive model is based on numerous factors, including the generic ballot, the president’s overall and issue-specific approval ratings and lots of other factors to the point where Silver calls it the “kitchen sink” approach…
FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model does not look solely at these national indicators. Instead, it evaluates the outcome in each of the 435 Congressional districts in which voters will cast ballots this fall. Although the generic ballot has some predictive power even at the local level, our analysis has found that it is not any more important – and in many circumstances, less important – than a series of metrics that can be applied to individual districts. For example, race ratings published by expert forecasters – and particularly those produced by Cook Political and CQ Politics – have an outstanding track record and are used extensively in our model. These forecasts generally point to a somewhat milder outcome for Democrats – perhaps a loss of about 40 seats.
The model also makes use of polls of individual House districts, where they are available. Because nonpartisan polls of individual races are relatively rare, this model includes polls commissioned by campaigns, or by other explicitly partisan organizations (although such polls are subject to a significant adjustment that anticipates their potential bias). However, in contrast with our other forecasting products, our House model gives no particular deference to the polls, and instead they are but one of the series of indicators that we evaluate. Polling in individual House races can often be unreliable, as many voters don’t familiarize themselves with the candidates until late in the election cycle, and as the demographics of individual Congressional districts can be idiosyncratic as compared with larger regions like states.
And this year, there are often significant disagreements – sometimes, even double-digit gaps – among pollsters who are surveying the same House races. The polls can nevertheless have some value when analyzed carefully. But, except in the rare case where there are several trustworthy polls available in the same House district, it is best to combine them with other indicators, our analysis finds.
The model also looks at the amount of fund-raising by each candidate – in particular, at the amount raised from individual contributors, which can be a leading indicator of both the enthusiasm for a particular candidate and the strength of his or her organizational infrastructure. This fund-raising data can have quite a lot of predictive power, although it diminishes somewhat as the campaign evolves (if the candidate is not successful at using their monetary resources to persuade individual voters). Democratic candidates for the House had a very slight edge in individual contributions through the Federal Election Commission’s June reporting period, although it may reverse itself when third-quarter fund-raising reports are released this month.
Finally, the model evaluates past voting in the Congressional district, both in presidential campaigns and prior House elections. But such data needs to be interpreted carefully: past voting is much less meaningful once an incumbent retires, for instance, or if the candidate had not faced serious opposition from the other party in the last election. And voting follows slightly different patterns for the presidency and for Congress: poorer districts sometimes split their ticket between a Congressional Democrat and a Republican president, while the reverse is sometimes true for wealthier ones.
