* Daily Kos has the latest polling in Super Tuesday states for Democrats. Obama appears to be gaining almost everywhere. But Lynn Sweet has a memo from Obama campaign manager David Plouffe which attempts to lower expectations.
* Larry takes Illinois NOW to task for not telling the truth about those “Present” votes here and here. A bit of bad language, so beware.
* This is an interesting look, if self-promotional, about SMS advertising, the latest trend in political campaigning…
Limbo today releases a report showing how voters’ attitudes and behaviors are influenced through mobile advertising. In January 2008, Limbo ran SMS advertising campaigns for leading Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, delivering over one million SMS impressions across the two campaigns. The results suggest that SMS advertising provides a powerful tool for candidates to change consumer attitudes and voting behavior.
* I can’t find it online yet, but Greg Hinz at Crain’s takes a look ahead in case Obama wins or is named to the ticket and wins as VP…
African-Americans are this governor’s most loyal, solid base. U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., D-Chicago, probably is the best-positioned black official to fill a Senate vacancy, and he’s been campaigning around the country for Barack. But Mr. Jackson and Illinois Senate Majority Leader Emil Jones Jr. are not best buds, and right now the guv really needs Emil.
U.S. Rep. Schakowsky, from Evanston, has maintained good relations with this governor and, like him, is a liberal populist. “If Barack were president,” she allows, “I’d be very interested in that Senate seat.” Moving her across the rotunda would make U.S. Rep. Rahm Emanuel the unquestioned big cheese in the city’s House delegation.
Three statewide Democrats also likely would be considered: Attorney General Lisa Madigan, Comptroller Dan Hynes and Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. But the first ain’t gonna happen, given Mr. Blagojevich’s war with her father, House Speaker Michael Madigan. Mr. Hynes isn’t much more popular with Rod’s team. Mr. Giannoulias is awfully young at age 31, but he’s campaigning really hard for something lately and is an Obama protégé (and basketball buddy).
The selection also could be someone from left field, like Downstate Blagojevich loyalist Jay Hoffman, the guv’s man in the state House.
Or how about way, way, way left field: Rod Blagojevich. You laugh, but no law would prevent him from appointing himself. Mr. Seniors-ride-free has pulled wackier stunts.
In ominous news for taxpayers, the fiscal difficulty continues to worsen at pension funds that cover Chicago and other government workers in the metropolitan area.
The area’s 10 big government pension funds now face $18.7 billion in unfunded liabilities, according to a report released Monday morning by the Civic Federation, a watchdog group. The deficit is more than five times the figure of just a decade ago, and about six times the size of the city’s annual operating budget.
“It’s been anticlimactic,” sighed a top House Democratic operative last week when asked about some of the Chicago-area primary races.
For months, House Speaker Michael Madigan’s operation was expecting an onslaught from Gov. Rod Blagojevich and his allies against a handful of their Chicago incumbents. Madigan advised his incumbents to take leaves of absence from their day jobs, walk precincts like never before and raise and spend money like their lives depended on it. The speaker placed staff all over the city and parts of the suburbs, and ran the full program for his people.
At least two Democratic challengers have told others in recent days that they felt abandoned by the governor. They were recruited into the race with grandiose promises of money and staff and ended up holding an empty bag.
* Also, a note to the national media: I’m pretty busy right now with all the primary races tomorrow and I have zero time for your inane questions about endless rehash stories on various tangential minutiae. Please, stop calling me. Do your own research. Thanks.
Let’s hear about any direct mail or robocalls you received over the weekend, or any new TV or radio ads you saw or heard. Try to describe them all as fully as possible. Thanks.
* You gotta wonder sometimes about the brain power of those in politics today.
Take for instance, this goofy mailer by “Concerned People of the 3rd Ward.” Click the pics for larger images of this hit piece on Alderman Pat Dowell, who is running against Rep. Ken Dunkin for Democratic committeeman…
* On the second page, there’s a reference to a website…
* Now go take a look at the “blog.” It’s called “les.be.pat” and contains smears about Dowell being a lesbian, including this “reader poll”…
* Normally, these anonymous mailers are diffcult to trace. There is no “Concerned People of the 3rd Ward” committee registered with the State Board of Elections and Blogger allows anonymous blog hosting. Also, the street address apparently doesn’t exist.
But, in this case, somebody really goofed. Here is the bulk permit number for the Dowell hit piece…
* And here’s a recent mailer by Rep. Ken Dunkin…
* Now, let’s zoom in on Dunkin’s bulk permit number, shall we?
* Hey, whaddyaknow. It’s the same number as the Dowell piece. Who would ever have guessed?
He’s known as “Padunk” for a reason.
…Adding… You’d probably be acting well within reason to go to that aforementioned blog and click on the “Flag Blog” button at the very top of the page, which lets Google know that it’s a despicable piece of trash.
The survey found Obama, a first-term Illinois senator from Chicago, with the support of 55 percent of likely Democratic primary voters. Clinton, a two-term New York senator born in Chicago and raised in suburban Park Ridge, had 24 percent.
On the Republican side, McCain, a veteran Arizona senator, had the backing of 43 percent of likely GOP primary voters in the state, compared with 20 percent for former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, 15 percent for former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and 4 percent for Rep. Ron Paul of Texas.
“I think there’s a small base of Republicans that are focusing on this presidential contest and the more independent-minded are not going to be voting in the Republican Party with favorite-son Barack Obama on the Democratic ballot,” said state Sen. Dan Rutherford (R-Chenoa), the Illinois chairman of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s campaign. “I think you’ll be finding a low Republican turnout.” […]
“I’m getting calls from committeemen all over the place. They say, ‘We’ve got nothing going to keep our Republicans from voting for Barack,’” said state Rep. Angelo “Skip” Saviano of Elmwood Park, a member of the Republican State Central Committee.
* Dan Lipinkski’s campaign has a new mailer which is basically an open letter from community activist and “fellow Southwest Sider” Joe Kulys.
Kulys slams the bloggers who have attacked Lipinksi for the past several months as “political punks” and “radical left-wingers,” claiming they’re from places like “San Francisco, Hollywood, New York City and Massachusetts.” Kulys then notes this in the letter…
[W]e were working, sweating, building and strengthening the Democratic Party while they were still crying in their cribs because their diapers were full.
And just where was Dan Lipinski during all this difficult party building? Why, he was also in his “diapers” and/or away at college. Lipinski wasn’t even living in Illinois when he was tapped to replace his daddy.
The only time Dan Lipinski really did anything on his own was when he was zooming towards the womb. He didn’t build anything on the Southwest Side. He barely knows the Southwest Side of today.
Ask pretty much any insider in that district and they’ll tell you the “real” reason Dan Lipinski was originally slotted into that seat was because he has a horrific case of diabetes and his mommy wanted to make sure he got lifetime health insurance coverage. He’s an embarrassment on every level.
* As I told you Saturday, the latest Tribune poll found that 44 percent of Democratic primary voters are still undecided about the Cook County State’s Attorney race…
Cook County Commissioner Larry Suffredin held a narrow edge, with support from 17 percent of voters, the poll showed. Chicago Alds. Tom Allen (38th) and Howard Brookins (21st) each had 11 percent, as did Anita Alvarez, the No. 3 official in Devine’s office. Devine’s top assistant, Robert Milan, had 3 percent and Tommy Brewer, a defense lawyer and former FBI agent, had 2 percent.
* Brookins, who is not on TV, has apparently either not yet burned in his message that he is the “black” candidate or black voters know it and are rejecting him. The demographic play is acknowledged by Brookins’ own people as his best hope of winning the campaign because he isn’t exactly a stellar candidate. To that end, Jesse Jackson, Sr. came out for Brookins over the weekend.
Bob Milan, candidate for Cook County state’s attorney, fired back Friday at a campaign ad run by Ald. Tom Allen (38th) accusing Milan of being a status quo choice to lead an office that, according to the ad, looked the other way on police torture allegations.
* On another county race, it borders on reportorial malpractice that nobody ever seems to point out all of the developer money raised by County Assessor Jim Houlihan. The spin is he’s the good guy, pushing for “reform” by pumping big bucks into the Board of Review contests…
Cook County Assessor James Houlihan has contributed $190,000 to a candidate running for a seat on the board that reviews the work of Houlihan’s office. […]
Houlihan said he is not trying to increase his power but aims to reform a system he says is slanted toward the commercial property owner.
Yeah, OK.
* And, finally, a self-described “pro environment” candidate for the Water Reclamation District has a not so eco-friendly contributor…
But Spyropoulos is under attack now too. She, Podgorski, and Maragos have taken a cue from Shore and framed their candidacies as part of an environmental movement; on its Web site, the Illinois Sierra Club has a pleasant-looking picture of the three of them winning its endorsement.
On Friday, though, Podgorski issued a press release accusing Spyropoulos of greenwashing. Podgorski noted that while she’s promised to battle BP and other companies that pollute the lake, the primary source of her campaign financing—her pops, Theodor—is the owner of a gasoline distribution company.
Tribune Co.’s proposal to sell Wrigley Field to the state is alienating would-be buyers of the Chicago Cubs who say owning the team without the iconic stadium would be like a day in the bleachers without a cold beer.
“The Cubs and Wrigley Field are so intertwined. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts,” says a member of one bidding group who requested anonymity because of Major League Baseball’s sensitivity about the sale process. “Splitting them absolutely diminishes the value of the team and my interest level.”
The loss of Motorola Inc.’s cell phone business would reduce Chicago to a pin-dot on the global technology map and set the stage for the dismantling of a giant that helped shape the region’s corporate landscape for generations.
* The excitement from the presidential campaign has sucked all the oxygen out of other races. As subscribers know (and will learn again Monday) this state’s attorney’s race isn’t the only Cook County or Chicago campaign with huge numbers of undecideds with just days to go before the election…
Just days before Tuesday’s primary, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows a wide-open race for the Democratic nomination for Cook County state’s attorney with none of the six contenders in the increasingly bitter battle able to claim support from more than a fraction of voters.
Almost half of the likely Democratic voters surveyed, 44 percent, said they were undecided about who should be the nominee for the opening created when State’s Atty. Dick Devine decided not to seek re-election.
Cook County Commissioner Larry Suffredin held a narrow edge, with support from 17 percent of voters, the poll showed. Chicago Alds. Tom Allen (38th) and Howard Brookins (21st) each had 11 percent, as did Anita Alvarez, the No. 3 official in Devine’s office. Devine’s top assistant, Robert Milan, had 3 percent and Tommy Brewer, a defense lawyer and former FBI agent, had 2 percent.
The poll of 404 likely voters, conducted Tuesday through Thursday, had an error margin of 5 percentage points.
404 likely voters? Mother Tribune cheaped out. Still, the mathematical probability that Suffredin leads his three closest competitors is 98.9 percent.
Favorite-son Sen. Barack Obama and Arizona Sen. John McCain each hold a better than 2-to-1 edge over their closest presidential rivals entering the Illinois primary, but many voters say they’re still undecided or could change their mind before casting a ballot Tuesday, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows. […]
The survey found Obama, a first-term Illinois senator from Chicago, with the support of 55 percent of likely Democratic primary voters. Clinton, a two-term New York senator born in Chicago and raised in suburban Park Ridge, had 24 percent.
On the Republican side, McCain, a veteran Arizona senator, had the backing of 43 percent of likely GOP primary voters in the state, compared with 20 percent for former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, 15 percent for former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and 4 percent for Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. […]
If the state’s Democrats and Republicans can agree on one thing, it’s that a majority of them believe that jobs and the economy are the most important issue. Asked their top two issues of concern, 62 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of Republicans listed the economy and its effect on employment.
Democrats cited affordable health care and the Iraq war as their second and third top concerns. Republicans made illegal immigration the issue of next highest concern behind the economy, with the Iraq war also reflected third.
…Adding… I don’t think I’ve ever seen a better campaign video that wasn’t actually created by a campaign…
* UPDATE 2: More Super Tuesday polls are here. Obama up in California, gaining in New Jersey (where he was getting clobbered a week ago).
* I wish I could find Dylan’s original version at YouTube, but this cover will have to suffice…
When you’re standing at the crossroads that you cannot comprehend
Just remember that death is not the end
And all your dreams have vanished and you don’t know what’s up the bend
Just remember that death is not the end
Not the end, not the end
Just remember that death is not the end
* I don’t think I’ve ever seen a normally “responsible” and otherwise cautious columnist go this far out on a limb on the topic of Gov. Blagojevich’s legal troubles…
Of course, Blagojevich may very well be innocent, and the conversations the feds say Cari and Levine had with him may never have occurred. Certainly, Levine’s recollections may have been influenced by his plea bargain’s prospect of trading life behind bars for 67 months.
But that’s for the jury or the judge to decide when Blagojevich goes to trial. His indictment, though, seems a certainty, based on what prosecutors say they will prove in the Rezko trial.
That was Charlie Wheeler, the normally staid budget-watcher at the always buttoned-down Illinois Issues magazine. He ends his piece thusly…
With the Rezko proffer, Illinois moves closer to an unwanted and lamentable distinction — having two former governors in federal prison at the same time.
* 10:55 am - Some very slightly good state economic news for a change…
The University of Illinois Flash Index, the first barometer of the Illinois economy each month, broke a six-month slide with a slight increase in January.
The index rose to 103.8 from the December reading of 103.6. It’s the first time since June 2007 that the Flash Index has risen over the previous month.
“In most months, this would be a relatively insignificant result,” said U of I economist J. Fred Giertz, who compiles the index for the university’s Institute of Government and Public Affairs. “However, with the threat of a looming recession, this is a case of ‘no news is good news.’ As of now, the Illinois economy does not appear to be in recession.”
The Flash Index is constructed with the reading of 100 as the dividing line between economic expansion and contraction. The Illinois economy has slowed significantly since June’s reading of 106.8, but it is still expanding, Giertz said.
* 3:54 pm - Judge won’t dismiss Blagojevich’s suit against Madigan on special sessions…
Sangamon County Judge Leo Zappa Friday refused to dismiss a lawsuit filed by Gov. Rod Blagojevich against House Speaker Michael Madigan over the governor’s authority to set both the date and time of special sessions.
Instead, Zappa told attorneys to quickly file additional paperwork so he can render a decision in the case. Attorneys for both sides said they hope to have a decision within weeks.
Blagojevich sued Madigan because the speaker last summer convened a special session hours earlier than decreed by the governor. Blagojevich said the action violated both the state Constitution and state law which gives the governor authority to decide when to convene special sessions.
Madigan said Blagojevich called special sessions at inconvenient times just to punish lawmakers for not approving his legislative agenda. Madigan’s legal counsel David Ellis also said that a ruling in Blagojevich’s favor will result in a lawsuit being filed any time the House is even minutes late in meeting the governor’s deadline.
Texas lost out last month when a government-sponsored zero-emissions coal plant went to Illinois, but its bid could be revived because the project has stalled over questions about its rising cost and technological scope, officials said.
The U.S. Department of Energy told members of Congress from Illinois on Tuesday that it would pull its support for building the $1.8 billion FutureGen plant in Mattoon, Ill.
The department could scale back the project, and Texas might compete again to host a facility that’s smaller or includes slightly different technology.
“I fully expect Texas will have an opportunity to get involved,” said Texas Railroad Commission Chairman Michael Williams, who led Texas’ bid to host FutureGen. “There were indications even before the announcement that the Department of Energy was looking to perhaps go in a different direction.”
A whole lot of people believe that the Bush administration killed off FutureGen because Texas was left out of the equation.
* The FutureGen Alliance checks the Department of Energy’s facts and finds a whole lot of holes…
DOE: Project costs have nearly doubled.
FACT: Project costs have increased, but DOE’s share has not doubled—not even close. When President Bush first announced FutureGen, the DOE share was $800M. DOE’s current estimated share is $1.1B with the increase due to inflation. A White House Official agreed and was quoted in The New York Times on December 17, 2007, “…the market for steel, concrete and power plant components has ‘just gone through the roof globally’.” DOE’s contribution will be reduced by contributions from foreign countries. Additionally, the Alliance has offered to provide DOE with partial-to-full repayment to ease the final cost to the taxpayer. The costs are manageable. […]
DOE: DOE’s alternative plan will sequester twice as much CO2 as the current project’s one million ton goal.
FACT: The Mattoon site and FutureGen, as currently configured, can sequester approximately two million tons per year. The environmental impact statement considered as much as 2.5 million tons.
But two Mattoon city officials who met with Shimkus earlier this month say the Republican congressman from Collinsville was “carrying water” for President Bush when he traveled to the Coles County town, which is outside his district, and told city leaders that the FutureGen project was dead. On Wednesday, three weeks after the meeting in Mattoon, Department of Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said that the energy department would not proceed with FutureGen.
If Shimkus ran for dogcatcher in Mattoon against Bodman, a write-in candidate would win, said Mattoon city attorney Preston Owen, who attended the meeting earlier this month.
Dave Wortman, Mattoon public works director, said he and other city officials were confused and disappointed after the meeting with Shimkus.
“The meeting that he had with us, that I sat in on, he was already telling us the project was dead and that we might as well get used to it,” Wortman said. “It undermines what we were trying to do. He came into another district to help the administration kill the project. That’s the way we felt.”
* Retiring Congressman Denny Hastert has no love for John McCain, the man who looks like the frontrunner in the GOP presidential race. Hastert told the Tribune that McCain, “was always known among the GOP as ‘the undependable vote’” in the Senate and was always “allied with Democrats.” More…
[Hastert] contended that on agenda items under the Republican-controlled Congress, “it just seems like everything we did, John was someplace else.”
“It was McCain-Kennedy, it was McCain-Lieberman, it was McCain-Feingold on campaign finance reform,” Hastert said, noting Democratic co-sponsors. “He was against us on tax cuts and his form of immigration reform was to open the gates and let everybody in.”
Asked if he considered McCain a conservative, Hastert said, “In my opinion, he is not.”
* Hastert may have been closer to the truth than he knew…
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) was close to leaving the Republican Party in 2001, weeks before then-Sen. Jim Jeffords (Vt.) famously announced his decision to become an Independent, according to former Democratic lawmakers who say they were involved in the discussions.
* I’m told the Tribune is in the field with a new poll, so we should have fresh numbers Sunday, but Rasmussen surveyed Illinois Republicans early this week and found McCain leading…
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain earning 34% of the vote while Romney is eight points behind at 26%. The survey was conducted on Monday and Tuesday, finishing just before results from Florida’s Presidential Primary were known. Mike Huckabee finished a distant third at 16%.
Since the poll was completed, Rudy Giuliani has withdrawn from the race and endorsed McCain. America’s Mayor had picked up 9% of the Illinois vote in the poll.
“America’s mayor” had once dominated this state. But he was even tanking here, apparently. Not mentioned is that Ron Paul was scoring 10 percent - ahead of Giuliani.
* More from the poll…
McCain is viewed favorably by 77% of Illinois Primary Voters while Romney earns positive reviews from 71%. The men earn generally equal ratings from those who supported Giuliani in the poll.
Just 54% of voters in the state are confident they will stick with their current choice when Election Day finally arrives. Fifteen percent (15%) say there’s a good chance they could change their mind. That figure, of course, went even higher with the withdrawal of Giuliani.
Forty-one percent (41%) consider the top voting issue to be the economy. Eighteen percent (18%) say it’s National Security while 14% name Immigration as their top priority.
* Also from the poll, 52% said the was most important attritute they wanted in a president was “someone who can address national security issues,” while 35% said it was “somewho can address economic issues.”
72% gave President Bush either an “excellent” (36) or “good” (36) job approval rating. 73 percent of Republcans polled gave Gov. Blagojevich a “poor” approval rating.
* Efforts to get Republican US Senate candidate Steve Sauerberg’s name out there before the primary is meeting with mixed results. The Daily Herald’s endorsement was titled “Sauerberg best of weak choices for Senate” and ends…
Sauerberg is endorsed, unenthusiastically so, on the basis of his sincere desire to want to make things better for Americans as a reform candidate. Best we can do.
* ABC 7 ran a story on the three candidates for the GOP nomination to take on Dick Durbin and played it pretty straight…
Steve Sauerberg is a long-time family physician who’s never run for elected office but believes that works in his favor. He’s won newspaper endorsements and has the backing of the state Republican Central committee.
Andy Martin is an Internet commentator and perennial candidate who believes he has the credibility his opponents lack. He wants to bring high-speed rail to Illinois.
Mike Psak is a truck driver with an MBA from DePaul who believes Washington has too many lawyers and multi-millionaires. He advocates eliminating the nation’s toll ways.
* Unlike the ABC 7 story, today’s Tribune piece goes out of its way to note that Sauerberg is the party’s endorsed guy and trumpet the alarm about the other two, but the reporters get their digs in…
But some Republicans have expressed fears that Sauerberg’s low-volume campaign might not be enough to defeat Andy Martin and Mike Psak, a result that would cast further doubt on the GOP’s relevance in Illinois. […]
“I don’t think I could have covered any more ground than I have,” Sauerberg said. “I don’t think the criticism has been fair. … We have gotten in front of people who we feel were most critical, and we’ve gotten tons of endorsements and we think that should carry us through the primary.”
According to Republican Steve Sauerberg’s disclosure report for the period from October through January 16th, he had not quite $67,000 in his campaign fund.
Durbin, meanwhile, is the Senate majority’s second-highest ranking leader and reported having $7.3 million.
* Buried way down in this generic “Pera says Dem incumbent is like Bush and liberal bloggers hate Lipinksi” story is this tidbit that made the rounds of the blogs yesterday…
Democratic U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez of Chicago, a leading proponent of immigrant rights, took the highly unusual step of withdrawing his endorsement of Lipinski.
“He cannot look past [Lipinski’s] voting record on immigration,” Gutierrez spokeswoman Rebecca Dreilinger said Thursday.
* Pera had this to say to Chicagoist the other day…
Dan Lipinski has made a big deal about his intervening in the case of a French woman subject to deportation. And I applaud his effort. But the fact is there are millions of people in a similar situation. The fact is he voted for the Sensenbrenner bill that would have made this woman a felon. The fact is that it’s convenient and easy to do what he did for purposes of grabbing a headline. But when it comes to the hard work and the need for leadership on the issue of immigration, he is nowhere to be found. And he has taken a very harsh view towards the immigrant community.
It’s a good point. Lipinski has gotten a lot of press for his work on behalf of that woman, but rarely mentioned is the hypocrisy of his behavior.
U.S. Rep. Jerry Weller, who announced his retirement in September following reports of undisclosed foreign property investments and other ethics questions, spent $172,000 on legal fees last fall, according to campaign reports the Illinois Republican filed this week.
The fees, all of which went to Washington-based Wiley Rein LLP, represented more than half of the $301,000 he had reported remaining in his campaign fund.
Weller press secretary Andy Fuller offered only a vague description of the purpose of the expenditure. “When the congressman decided to leave Congress, he had his attorneys perform a thorough review of his time in Congress,” Fuller said in an e-mail.
His first payment of $140,893.05 was made on Oct. 2, just two weeks after Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics issued a report detailing numerous alleged ethical problems and possible violations of federal law. He has not been charged with any wrongdoing. […]
Jan Witold Baran, a partner in the law firm who has represented Weller before the FEC in past years, declined comment or to say whether Weller remained a client. […]
The Chicago Tribune recently published a report that suggested Weller had not properly reported real estate dealings in Nicaragua, where the congressman owns property.
The newspaper also said Weller’s wife, an influential senator in Guatemala and daughter of a former Guatemalan dictator, formed a nonprofit in Illinois with close associates or family members that raised questions about the congressman’s omission of his wife’s assets from his financial disclosure filings.
