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Dueling polls in Ozinga-Halvorson congressional race - Surge or no surge? *** UPDATED x1 ***
Tuesday, Sep 23, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller * We have two relatively recent polls from Democrat Debbie Halvorson and Republican Martin Ozinga in the 11th Congressional District contest. * The Halvorson poll is slightly older. Taken September 14-16 of 500 likely voters, Halvorson’s poll shows her leading 43-35. * Ozinga’s poll is more recent - Sept. 17-18 vs 14-16 - but the survey sample size is smaller - 400 likely voters vs. 500 likelies. It’s impossible to discern how each campaign is defining “likely” voters in their screens, so that could be one reason for the discrepancy. Ozinga claims Halvorson’s lead is just two points - 38-36. * Judy Baar Topinka actually won the 11th District two years ago
* From the Ozinga polling memo…
* And here’s some back and forth on TV messaging. From Halvorson…
* Ozinga…
* Halvorson’s slightly earlier poll showed no movement…
* Ozinga’s poll did show movement. Lots of it…
* Halvorson’s poll included the Green Party candidate…
* There was no reference to Wallace in the Ozinga press release, but Gov. Blagojevich rated a mention…
* Halvorson poll methodology…
* Ozinga poll methodology…
Thoughts? *** UPDATE *** Halvorson’s latest TV ad… ![]()
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A closer look at McCain’s new “Machine” ad *** UPDATED x3 ***
Tuesday, Sep 23, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller *** UPDATE 3 *** Our very own Kevin Fanning caught up with Treasurer Giannoulias, an Obama protege, and asked him about the McCain ad flap…
*** UPDATE 2 *** Mayor Daley jumps in…
*** UPDATE 1 *** Bill Daley takes another whack at McCain via CNN…
* Bill Daley has been drawn into the Obama-McCain presidential contest, and it appears that McCain goofed in his TV ad, whether deliberately or not. I posted the ad yesterday, but here it is again… “His economic adviser, William Daley. Lobbyist.” There is a lobbyist named William Daley, but that would be Bill Daley’s son, William Daley Jr...
Oops. * Michael Sneed got into the act…
Well, actually, as Lynn Sweet pointed out above, the son is still a registered lobster for Morgan Stanley. * Anyway, back to Sneed…
* The Chicago Tribune editorial board weighs in on the ad itself…
* The Tribune story provides some context…
* Lynn Sweet takes a look, too…
* The Washington Post analyzes…
Thoughts?
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Reform and Renewal - Part 64,399
Monday, Sep 22, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller * Yet another ethical cloud over the governor…
* Despite his own, very real problems, Gov. Blagojevich had the temerity to call out Rep. John Fritchey by name during his press conference last week…
* Fritchey later had some regrets…
Heh. * As you already know, Gov. Blagojevich last week claimed that the Republicans had set a “trap” for presidential candidate Barack Obama…
* Well, McCain does have a new TV ad, but it’s not quite what the governor predicted… Text…
![]() * And if you think Fritchey was harsh, check out the goo-goo…
* Related…
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Poll: Voters blame Blagojevich far more than Madigan
Monday, Sep 22, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller * Rasmussen Reports has a new statewide poll of 500 likely Voters. The survey was conducted September 17, 2008 and has a +/- 4.5 margin of error. The firm asked voters who was to blame more for Democratic Party feuding, Gov. Blagojevich or House Speaker Madigan (Democratic voter response in parentheses)…
Obviously, this is not good news for the guv. * Here are Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s job performance numbers…
Oof. The crosstabs show that just 5 percent of African-American voters rate the guv’s performance as “Good” while 0 percent say he is doing an “Excellent” job. Double oof. * Rasmussen also tested House Speaker Michael Madigan’s job performance…
* I’m not sure why but the Post-Dispatch’s Research 2000 polling firm always has Blagojevich’s job approval ratings far higher than everyone else…
* Meanwhile, Rasmussen looks at Dick Durbin’s US Senate reelection…
* Rasmussen also checks into the presidential contest here…
* The Big Ten Battleground Poll has Obama ahead of McCain 48.7% to 34.1%. It’s 52.9% 37.0% with “leaners.” Illinois right direction, wrong direction numbers are 15.9% to 77.1%. Makes sense, considering.
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