* Hot off the presses…

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Illinois voters finds Giannoulias ahead of Kirk 42% to 39%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and 15% are undecided.

In October, the two men were tied at 41% each. In mid-August, Kirk held a modest 41% to 38% lead over Giannoulias.

So, Giannoulias has managed to flip the numbers since August. The other Democrats still trail Kirk, but they’re closing the gap…

Kirk remains ahead of another Democratic hopeful, Cheryle Jackson, president of the Chicago Urban League and a former top aide to disgraced Governor Rod Blagojevich, but his lead has shrunk dramatically. Ahead of Jackson by 17 points – 47% to 30% - in October, he now leads just 42% to 39%. Four percent (4%) like another candidate, and 15% are not sure.

The Republican holds a similar 42% to 38% lead over Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, another contender for the Democratic senatorial nomination. Kirk led Hoffman 43% to 33% in October. Seventeen percent (17%) are undecided, while three percent (3%) favor another candidate.

* Meanwhile…

Fifty-one percent (51%) approve of Governor Pat Quinn’s performance. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove. But Illinois voters are nearly three times as likely to strongly disapprove rather than strongly approve of the job he’s doing.

President Obama’s Illinois approval/disapproval numbers are 58-42, and that’s way better than Rasmussen’s national number of 47-51. Running against Obama is not a great idea here.

* From the toplines…

A proposal has been made to house some Guantanamo prison inmates in Illinois at the Thomson correctional facility. Do you favor or oppose housing Guantanamo prisoners at the Thomson correctional facility in Illinois?

39% Favor
51% Oppose
10% Not sure

No surprise there. The crosstabs show that Republicans oppose the plan 70-28, while a plurality of Democrats support it, 49-37.

Quinn’s job approval…

8% Strongly approve
43% Somewhat approve
25% Somewhat disapprove
22% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure

His support remains soft, but the opposition is strengthening.

Afghanistan is becoming somewhat of an issue in the Democratic US Senate primary, with Cheryle Jackson and David Hoffman questioning the president’s new plan. But the crosstabs show large support for the president’s proposal among Democrats. 62 percent of Democrats “overall” favor the plan, 60 percent of liberals back it and 82 percent of African-Americans support it as well. Jackson is the most opposed of all the candidates, but that issue doesn’t appear to work well with African-American voters.

How it was done…

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted by Rasmussen Reports December 9, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

*** UPDATE 1 *** From a Mark Kirk press release…

Kirk Widens Lead over Giannoulias among Key Independent Voters to 34 Points in Latest Rasmussen Poll

Survey Shows Kirk and Giannoulias Remain in Statistical Dead Heat despite Democrat’s Network TV Ad Blitz

Northbrook, Ill. – A non-partisan poll released by Rasmussen Reports today shows Republican Congressman and Navy veteran Mark Kirk widening his lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias among key independent voters to 34 points despite Giannoulias’ early launch of network television ads to boost his numbers.

Responding to TV ads launched by Democrat David Hoffman, Giannoulias launched his own network television ad campaign at the beginning of the month to boost his name recognition and favorable ratings. But according to the Rasmussen survey, Kirk maintains a 50-32 favorable to unfavorable rating compared to Giannoulias’ 48-36 fav/unfav. Kirk holds a net positive strongly favorable/unfavorable rating of 13-8 while Giannoulias holds an even intensity ratio of 14-14.

The survey released today shows Kirk leading Giannoulias among key independent voters 54-20. In October, Rasmussen showed Kirk leading Giannoulias among this group 53-24. While the October poll showed both Kirk and Giannoulias at 41 with a 4.5-point margin of error, the survey released today shows Giannoulias with a slight 42-39 edge – remaining a statistical dead heat within the margin of error. A November 3rd poll by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies showed Kirk with a 44-38 advantage.

“Despite more than a week of Giannoulias network television advertising, Congressman Kirk widened his lead over Alexi Giannoulias among key independent voters to 34 points without any television advertising from his own campaign,” Kirk spokesman Eric Elk said. “In addition, the survey shows Congressman Kirk and Alexi Giannoulias remain in a statistical dead heat. With a proven record of fighting tax increases, reining in spending and spurring economic growth, Congressman Mark Kirk brings the experience, integrity and reform-minded leadership Illinois needs to create jobs, end corruption and get our state back on track.”

*** UPDATE 2 *** From Giannoulias spokesperson Kati Phillips…

“Bizarre press release aside (which shows him losing), Mark Kirk can’t hide the fact that voters tend not to like flip-floppers who put politics before principles. Whether it’s having it both ways on earmarks, women’s rights, cap n trade, or Sarah Palin’s endorsement, voters know a pander bear when they see one.”