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Dem poll: Bustos within two

Friday, Sep 28, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Democratic congressional candidate Cheri Bustos has released new poll numbers which purport to show her race against Republican freshman Bobby Schilling is neck and neck. From the pollster, GBA Strategies

Democrat Cheri Bustos is surging in her race against incumbent Republican Congressman Bobby Schilling in Illinois’ new 17th congressional district. A new survey1 of 600 likely voters shows Bustos has closed the gap dramatically since advertising in the campaign began, pulling to within 45 – 47 percent—well within the survey’s margin of error.

But the pollster then did some weird voodoo, which makes me uncomfortable…

In a vote simulation where undecided voters are allocated by their partisanship, Bustos and Schilling are completely tied 49 - 49 percent.

I really wish campaigns wouldn’t do that stuff without at least offering up some detailed explanations. It undermines their numbers.

* Schilling released numbers last month showing him leading the race by 13 points, 50-37. But the new polling shows President Obama is doing very well in the district

President Obama leads Governor Mitt Romney by a wide 54 – 41 percent margin in this race.

So, the unmentioned bottom line here is that Bustos is still vastly underperforming the top of the ticket.

* Methodology

Survey of 600 likely voters conducted by GBA Strategies September 24-26, 2012. Respondents were reached on land lines and cell phones. Results have a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.

* Meanwhile, the House Majority PAC’s latest TV ad blasts away at Schilling

* Related…

* VIDEO: Bustos and Schilling debate

* Chuck Sweeny: Cheri Bustos, Bobby Schilling on Rock River Rumble

  14 Comments      


Poll: Quinn approval rating edges up a notch

Friday, Sep 14, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale has a new poll. The most interesting result is Gov. Pat Quinn’s approval ratings, which, according to this poll at least, are trending up

Now I would like for you to tell me how Governor Pat Quinn is doing his job. Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job Governor Quinn is doing?

    Strongly disapprove 27.0%
    Somewhat disapprove 22.0%
    Neither 2.9%
    Somewhat approve 36.1%
    Strongly approve 6.1%
    Other/Don’t know 5.9

* From the pollster

There are 42.2 percent who approve of Quinn’s performance, while 49.1 percent disapprove. A year ago, only 35.5 percent approved and 56.4 percent disapproved, according to a poll taken in October, 2011 by the Institute. Quinn’s approval rating is highest in the Chicago suburbs and lowest downstate.

“The big surprise in this poll is that Gov. Quinn’s popularity is actually getting better,” said David Yepsen, director of the Institute. “The state’s problems are headline news just about every day and people aren’t in a good mood about the state but they do feel better about the way Quinn is handling his job.”

“Still, his poll numbers remain underwater because more people disapprove of the job he’s doing than approve of it,” Yepsen said.

In the city of Chicago, 47.5 percent approve of the job he’s doing while 37.9 percent disapprove. In the suburbs, 50.3 percent approve and 43.7 percent disapprove while downstate, only 25.5 percent approve and 65.1 percent disapprove.

A lot more people disapproved of Quinn’s job performance than approved of it right up until the end of the 2010 election. He won anyway. I think it’s a template for Obama in the swing states. What does that mean? Paint your opponent as an untrustworthy, extreme right-winger.

And those aren’t great city numbers for Quinn, by the way. I think the suburbs are a bit high and Downstate is probably on the mark.

* Illinois’ “right track” numbers are edging up ever so slightly

Also in 2011, 74.5 percent said the state was headed in the wrong direction and only 14.9 percent said it was headed in the right direction. Today, 69.9 percent say it’s going in the wrong direction and 19.6 percent say it’s going in the right direction.

So, a little bit of progress, but not nearly enough.

* We Ask America had President Obama’s lead at 17 points. This poll has it at 13. For the record, I trust my own pollster a lot…

• President Obama is supported for re-election by 47.1 percent of registered voters. Romney captures 33.8 percent. There are 16 percent undecided and 3.1 percent for someone else.

While that 13-point lead is a comfortable margin for the president and makes it likely Illinois is a safe state for him, that margin is less than the 24.9 percentage-point margin by which he won when he beat John McCain, 61.8 percent to 36.9 percent, in the state four years ago. It is also noteworthy that Obama’s support in Illinois has dropped below 50 percent.

• Key to President Obama’s lead may be his positive job approval ratings (55.6 percent approve either strongly or somewhat) and favorability ratings (53.7 percent view him either very or somewhat favorably). By contrast, not quite four in ten (38.7 percent) of respondents view Gov. Romney very or somewhat favorably.

Discuss.

  14 Comments      


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