* It’s no big news that Barack Obama is crushing Hillary Clinton in the Tribune’s new statewide poll of Illinois. It’s probably also no surprise that Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is surging here, because he seems to be surging just about everywhere.
So, let’s look at some of the other poll questions, which, upon reflection, probably aren’t a huge surprise, either. For instance…
Reflecting the optimism of Democrats heading into the election year, 82 percent said they viewed the party’s chances of retaking the White House after eight years as very good to excellent. Republicans were much more pessimistic. Among GOP voters, only 45 percent viewed their chances of holding onto the presidency as very good to excellent.
* GOP voters are also pessimistic about their own candidates…
Only 20 percent of Republicans said they were “very satisfied” with their field of candidates, compared with 45 percent of Democrats.
* And this result shows just how difficult it will be for a Republican to win in November…
Despite months of national polls showing low ratings for President Bush, particularly over the issues of the progress of the Iraq War and the state of the economy, 63 percent of Illinois Republicans approve of the job he is doing. At least 70 percent of Huckabee, Romney and Thompson voters give Bush high approval ratings, while the president receives the highest disapproval rating — 38 percent — from supporters of McCain, the man Bush defeated in the race for the Republican nomination nearly eight years ago.
It’s gonna be tough for the Republican nominee to distance himself from the hugely unpopular incumbent and still hold the base, which still likes the man.
* The survey found Obama leading among Democrats with 50 percent, to 25 percent for Clinton and 7 percent for Edwards. There was this, however…
When Democratic voters were asked, regardless of their personal choice for president, which candidate would have the best chance of defeating a Republican next November, 39 percent said Clinton and 37 percent said Obama. Among those believing the New York senator and former first lady would win out were a quarter of those who said they are backing Obama. In contrast, only 7 percent of those backing Clinton said they thought Obama was the most electable Democrat.
* Among Republicans…
The survey of 500 likely Republican voters, who were polled Dec. 9 to 13, found Giuliani with the support of 23 percent, Huckabee with 21 percent, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 14 percent, U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona with 12 percent and former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee with 11 percent. The poll also found U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas with 3 percent and U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado with 1 percent. Other candidates had 1 percent backing while 14 percent of those polled were undecided.
* More national stuff, compiled by Paul…
* Plenty of opportunity in state GOP
* Word on the Street: State Rep. Aaron Schock won’t permit his two congressional primary opponents to videotape him at any forums or debates. Well, it’s not that he’s not allowing it, he just won’t attend events if taping is allowed. So the net result is the same.
* Shimkus backs Schock’s bid for Congress