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Putting the numbers in context

Tuesday, Sep 7, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The problem with just about all media polls is that the write-ups almost never mention other surveys taken by different pollsters. That means you don’t get any context, and it can lead to outliers being touted as the only definitive results seen by hundreds of thousands of readers/viewers.

The Chicago Tribune is one of the worst offenders. Their numbers, by policy, are all you’ll ever see in their polling stories. And though they’ve improved somewhat over the years, their refusal to release all of their crosstabs means they are still operating in a 20th Century dead tree world. (This is not a knock on the paper’s reporters, mind you, but on corporate policy.)

Take, for instance, the governor’s race. The Tribune has this as a five-point race with Bill Brady leading Gov. Pat Quinn 37-32, with Scott Lee Cohen scoring 4 percent and Green Party nominee Rich Whitney and Libertarian Party candidate Lex Green at 2 each.

That’s a slight tightening from a recent Public Policy Polling survey which had the race at nine points, 39-30 Brady over Quinn, and an even more recent Rasmussen poll which found that, with leaners, the race was eight points, 49-41.

This suggests that Quinn’s recent TV ad buy touting Brady’s pro-gun views might have moved some numbers. But that could also just be a function of different polling techniques, considering that Brady’s unfavorable rating was only 19 percent in the Trib poll. The Tribune obviously does not push voters very hard to make up their minds, and not including “leaners” at this advanced stage is a big mistake.

* You also won’t see the Tribune mention stuff like the TPM PollTracker


* Anyway, to the write-up

More telling, barely half of Democrats say they support Quinn’s call for higher taxes, while a quarter of them side with Republican Brady, who has said he won’t detail his proposed budget cuts until after the Nov. 2 election.

At the same time, more voters back Brady’s call for more widespread business tax cuts to spur job creation than get behind Quinn’s reliance on passage of the state’s first public works construction program in more than a decade.

But a telling sign for Quinn may be voter reaction to one of his most recurring themes — that he worked to restore trust in state government following the Blagojevich scandal. Under Quinn, lawmakers enacted the first-ever campaign-donation limits, though some criticized them for having loopholes. The General Assembly also agreed to put on the November ballot a proposed constitutional amendment allowing a limited form of recall of a governor.

Yet 70 percent of the state’s voters said they don’t believe Quinn has done enough to curb corruption in Illinois government, including nearly six of 10 Democratic voters and about three-quarters of those who classify themselves as independents.

It would be nice to see the wording of the questions at hand and some crosstabs, but no dice.

* And today’s Tribune has some worrying news for all Illinois Democrats

Currently, 37 percent of voters identify themselves as Democrats and 27 percent say they’re Republicans — a 10-percentage-point differential that is about half the advantage Democrats had entering the 2008 election. Another 31 percent call themselves political independents.

This is real trouble as well…

Despite national polls forecasting a potential wave for Republicans that could let them recapture the House, 45 percent of Illinois voters said Democrats should maintain control of Congress, compared with 37 percent who back the GOP.

As we’ve discussed before, so many Illinois congressional districts are so heavily gerrymandered to favor the Democrats that this 8-point margin signifies serious problems ahead.

And this ain’t good either…

More than 6 in 10 lack confidence in Democratic-run Springfield, though the angst isn’t limited to Illinois borders. Fully 55 percent of the voters say they don’t have much or any confidence that the federal government will make the right decisions affecting them, according to the poll of 600 registered Illinois voters conducted Aug. 28-Wednesday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

But this is kinda meaningless, depending on how the question was worded…

A total of 83 percent of the voters said Blagojevich’s conviction will make no difference in whether they oppose or support Democratic candidates on the ballot.

* Another recent Tribune poll shows more Democratic weakness

A majority of the 600 Illinois registered voters surveyed still gave a positive review to Obama’s performance as president — but it is barely a majority. In all, 51 percent said they approved of the job he has done as president while 39 percent disapproved.

I didn’t see any regional breakdowns online, but we can probably infer that he ain’t doing well in the suburbs and Downstate. PPP’s latest poll had Obama’s approval at 49 percent and disapproval at 46 percent. Rasmussen’s survey had Obama’s approval at 53 and disapproval at 47. An NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll had the president’s approval at 45 percent.

* Related…

* Brady expected to pick up Fraternal Order of Police endorsement

* Employment Takes Center Stage In Race For Governor

* Politicians Turn Out for Labor Day Rally: QUINN: This election on Nov. 2, it’s all about the economy, it’s all about jobs, it’s all about a governor, who believes, as I do, in the minimum wage.

* GOP gov. hopefuls take on Obama

* Republicans Headed for Big Pick-Up of Governor’s Seats This Year

* Bad economy favors GOP in governor election projection

* Gubernatorial candidate Brady visits, shakes hands; campaign ratcheting up

* Sebelius visits Ill. for Quinn fundraiser

* GOP, Dems gear up for fierce political season

* Rich Whitney Seeks Victory, Not Green Party Growth

  25 Comments      


Behind the head to heads

Wednesday, Aug 25, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rasmussen has a new US Senate poll out that doesn’t give us a lot of new news in the head to heads. Results in brackets are from previous Ras polls…

Kirk: 40 [40%, 41%, 39%, 42% 46%, 41%, 41%, 46%]

Giannoulias: 42 [40%, 43%, 40%, 39% 38%, 37%, 44%, 40%]

Other: 6 [8%, 6%, 9%, 7% 5%, 8%, 5%, 4%]

Unsure: 12 [12%, 10%, 12%, 12% 12%. 13%, 10%, 10%]

“Leaners” tie this up at 45-45, with 3 percent for “other” and 8 unsure. We really need to get those other candidates included in these polls. I called Rasmussen yesterday, so we’ll see what they do next time.

* This topline is interesting, if not terribly surprising…

* In terms of how you will vote in the next national election, are you primarily interested in National Security issues such as the War with Iraq and the War on Terror, Economic issues such as jobs and economic growth, Domestic Issues like Social Security and Health Care, Cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion, or Fiscal issues such as taxes and government spending?

10% National Security Issues
55% Economic Issues
13% Domestic Issues
3% Cultural Issues
13% Fiscal Issues
7% Not sure

Crosstabs show that 58 percent of moderates, 50 percent of independents, 67 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of Giannoulias supporters put economic issues at the top of their list. That number is less for Republicans (41), Kirk supporters (43) and conservatives (45) because “fiscal issues” rate higher than average.

Kirk has only recently begun talking about the economy, and now you can clearly see why. This whole “mob banker” thing is a lot of fun, but it isn’t helping him move upwards.

* More unsurprising toplines

* Do you know anyone who is out of work and looking for a job?
87% Yes
9% No
4% Not sure

* Is the job market better than it was a year ago, worse than it was a year ago or about the same?
15% Better
43% Worse
40% About the same
3% Not sure

* TPM PollTracker


* Also, if you’re gonna quote polls, you probably should at least glance at the relevant crosstabs

Alexi Giannoulias is loath to admit it, but LeAlan Jones could become his gnarliest nightmare.

Two recent polls show Giannoulias is locked in a suffocatingly tight race with U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk. Along comes the youthful and energetic Jones, a 31-year-old journalist, high school coach and youth mentor. He’s not only fresh, he’s “Green.” Jones is running with the insurgent Green Party, which is trying to make inroads in the Nov. 2 election.

Jones has no political or governmental record, paltry cash and scarce name recognition — plus a monstrous helping of chutzpah. He owns one unmistakable asset — he is African American. Jones may be a Green, but the color of the moment is black.

From PPP’s latest xtabs…

Yes, Jones could make a slight move if he becomes known. Yes, it is a concern for Giannoulias. Yes, there’s a long time to go. But Jones is not even showing up on the radar screen yet. Rasmussen’s xtabs have 5 percent of African-American voters leaning towards “other.” There are indeed plenty of undecideds, but without cash and a strategy, it’s gonna be tough to eat into Giannoulias’ numbers, particularly with Obama on his side.

* Other campaign stories…

* Birkett eyes DuPage County judgeship

* Kirk Hopes Ride a Red Wave to Senate

* The Battle For Illinois’ Supreme Court

* 8th District rivals see different causes, solutions to budget deficit

* Robert Dold Radio Show WLS 890

* Walker to host series of community meetings in constituents’ homes

* Illinois Turnaround Tour - Schaumburg Video Blog

  33 Comments      


Generic congressional ballot not great for Dems - Halvorson has campaign manager - Obama’s no big impact

Friday, Aug 20, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Public Policy Polling took a look at the generic congressional ballot in Illinois

If the election for Congress was today, would you vote for a Democrat or a Republican?
46% Democrat
40% Republican
14% Undecided

Even though the Democrats are ahead, that’s a bit misleading. It isn’t good news. The pollster explains

In Illinois Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot by a 46-40 margin. That may not be terribly reassuring though given how much the party runs up the score in a small number of districts. Six of Illinois’ districts voted for President Obama at a 70% rate or higher in 2008.

…the 6 point generic ballot lead for Democrats in Illinois exceeds the 2 point lead we found for Alexi Giannoulias. That may give you a better idea of the shape Democrats would be in that race if they’d chosen a nominee with less baggage.

What that means is a whole bunch of targeted Democrats are in trouble.

* Speaking of targeted Democratic congresscritters, Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson did have a replacement in mind when she ousted her campaign manager. She’s bringing in Julie Merz

“The Halvorson camp is talking with Julie Merz about taking over as campaign manager, Vanderbilt said. Merz’s resume includes being campaign manager for U.S. Rep. Jim Matheson (D-Utah) and U.S. Rep. Dennis Moore (D-Kan.), both of whom are members of the Blue Dog Coalition, a group of moderate to conservative Democrats committed to fiscal responsibility and government accountability. She also worked on former U.S. Sen. Bill Bradley’s (D-N.J.) presidential campaign in 2000.”

They’re more than just talking about it. I’m told it’s a done deal.

* Back to PPP’s poll results

Illinois voters say they would be negatively influenced if a candidate was endorsed by Barack Obama. And if his support isn’t an asset in his home state it’s hard to imagine where it is.

40% of voters in the state say they’d be less likely to support an Obama endorsed candidate to only 26% who say it would be an asset. The reality at this point is that Obama turns Republican voters off to a much greater extent than he excites Democrats. That’s reflected in the fact that 83% of Republicans say an Obama endorsement would be a negative with them while only 49% of Democrats say it would be a positive. Independents also respond negatively by a 38/19 margin.

The numbers on an Obama endorsement are perhaps more relevant with undecided voters. Among those who have not yet made up their minds in the Senate race 21% say an Obama endorsement would resonate positively with them while 33% say it would be a turnoff.

The full results are here. According to PPP, 24 percent of Illinois voters would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin, while 52 percent would be less likely.

* And

In Illinois Durbin is the favorite politician of 41% of voters in the state, followed by Pat Quinn at 10%, and Roland Burris at 6%. Like Pennsylvania the lack of Republicans in major offices in Illinois leaves 42% of voters saying no opinion. Durbin’s tops among Democrats, 60-11 over Quinn, independents, 40-8 over Quinn, and Republicans, 17-12 over Quinn.

* Campaign roundup…

* Obama unlikely to sway many voters in Senate race, poll shows

* Daily Herald: Hitting the campaign trail head-on

* Retired generals disappointed over Kirk’s no-show at meeting

* Senate, governor candidates to speak in B-N

* Quinn says tax hike plan honest, if not popular, and will preserve schools

* Quinn Campaign Wants 7 Debates With GOP’s Brady

* Pantagraph: Brady, others need to give voters specifics

* Why Did SEIU Give $100,000 to the Republican Governors Association?

* Chamber Backs Kinzinger Over Incumbent Halvorson In Illinois

* Rose: The cutback cuts back

* State owes $2.2 billion to feds for unemployment benefits

* ACLU sues to block law making it illegal to record cops

* ACLU challenges Illinois eavesdropping act

* New health insurance plan for the uninsured launches in Illinois

* Illinois to enroll uninsured in new high-risk pool

* State, feds moving to require cleanup of Chicago River for recreation

* Madigan: $12.7 mil. netted in gas tax investigation

* Madigan Charges 6 Gas Station Owners With Tax Evasion

* Appraisals find Thomson Prison worth nearly $220 mil.

  17 Comments      


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