Putting the numbers in context
Tuesday, Sep 7, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * The problem with just about all media polls is that the write-ups almost never mention other surveys taken by different pollsters. That means you don’t get any context, and it can lead to outliers being touted as the only definitive results seen by hundreds of thousands of readers/viewers. The Chicago Tribune is one of the worst offenders. Their numbers, by policy, are all you’ll ever see in their polling stories. And though they’ve improved somewhat over the years, their refusal to release all of their crosstabs means they are still operating in a 20th Century dead tree world. (This is not a knock on the paper’s reporters, mind you, but on corporate policy.) Take, for instance, the governor’s race. The Tribune has this as a five-point race with Bill Brady leading Gov. Pat Quinn 37-32, with Scott Lee Cohen scoring 4 percent and Green Party nominee Rich Whitney and Libertarian Party candidate Lex Green at 2 each. That’s a slight tightening from a recent Public Policy Polling survey which had the race at nine points, 39-30 Brady over Quinn, and an even more recent Rasmussen poll which found that, with leaners, the race was eight points, 49-41. This suggests that Quinn’s recent TV ad buy touting Brady’s pro-gun views might have moved some numbers. But that could also just be a function of different polling techniques, considering that Brady’s unfavorable rating was only 19 percent in the Trib poll. The Tribune obviously does not push voters very hard to make up their minds, and not including “leaners” at this advanced stage is a big mistake. * You also won’t see the Tribune mention stuff like the TPM PollTracker… * Anyway, to the write-up…
It would be nice to see the wording of the questions at hand and some crosstabs, but no dice. * And today’s Tribune has some worrying news for all Illinois Democrats…
This is real trouble as well…
As we’ve discussed before, so many Illinois congressional districts are so heavily gerrymandered to favor the Democrats that this 8-point margin signifies serious problems ahead. And this ain’t good either…
But this is kinda meaningless, depending on how the question was worded…
* Another recent Tribune poll shows more Democratic weakness…
I didn’t see any regional breakdowns online, but we can probably infer that he ain’t doing well in the suburbs and Downstate. PPP’s latest poll had Obama’s approval at 49 percent and disapproval at 46 percent. Rasmussen’s survey had Obama’s approval at 53 and disapproval at 47. An NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll had the president’s approval at 45 percent. * Related…
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Behind the head to heads
Wednesday, Aug 25, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Rasmussen has a new US Senate poll out that doesn’t give us a lot of new news in the head to heads. Results in brackets are from previous Ras polls…
“Leaners” tie this up at 45-45, with 3 percent for “other” and 8 unsure. We really need to get those other candidates included in these polls. I called Rasmussen yesterday, so we’ll see what they do next time. * This topline is interesting, if not terribly surprising…
Crosstabs show that 58 percent of moderates, 50 percent of independents, 67 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of Giannoulias supporters put economic issues at the top of their list. That number is less for Republicans (41), Kirk supporters (43) and conservatives (45) because “fiscal issues” rate higher than average. Kirk has only recently begun talking about the economy, and now you can clearly see why. This whole “mob banker” thing is a lot of fun, but it isn’t helping him move upwards. * More unsurprising toplines…
* TPM PollTracker… * Also, if you’re gonna quote polls, you probably should at least glance at the relevant crosstabs…
From PPP’s latest xtabs… ![]() Yes, Jones could make a slight move if he becomes known. Yes, it is a concern for Giannoulias. Yes, there’s a long time to go. But Jones is not even showing up on the radar screen yet. Rasmussen’s xtabs have 5 percent of African-American voters leaning towards “other.” There are indeed plenty of undecideds, but without cash and a strategy, it’s gonna be tough to eat into Giannoulias’ numbers, particularly with Obama on his side. * Other campaign stories…
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Generic congressional ballot not great for Dems - Halvorson has campaign manager - Obama’s no big impact
Friday, Aug 20, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Public Policy Polling took a look at the generic congressional ballot in Illinois…
Even though the Democrats are ahead, that’s a bit misleading. It isn’t good news. The pollster explains…
What that means is a whole bunch of targeted Democrats are in trouble. * Speaking of targeted Democratic congresscritters, Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson did have a replacement in mind when she ousted her campaign manager. She’s bringing in Julie Merz…
They’re more than just talking about it. I’m told it’s a done deal.
The full results are here. According to PPP, 24 percent of Illinois voters would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin, while 52 percent would be less likely. * And…
* Campaign roundup…
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