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It ain’t all good news for Obama

Thursday, Oct 2, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Recent battleground state tracking polls showed a big jump for Barack Obama. But a Democratic news outlet dumped a tanker truck of cold water on Obama’s presidential aspirations yesterday….

In an unusually candid interview, a top official for the largest union backing Obama said that internal union polling shows that the race remains much more volatile and fluid in key battleground states than public polling suggests. He warned that low-information swing-state voters are saying they still don’t have a firm enough grasp on Obama’s life-story, character and record for the Illinois Senator to close the deal with them. […]

“This election remains extremely volatile in the battlegrounds,” [AFL-CIO deputy political director Mike Podhorzer] told us. “The public polls are giving a false sense of precision about where the race is. That’s a story that’s not really being told.”

Strikingly, Podhorzer said that his union’s internal polls — which push voters hard on the question of whether people are really firmly committed to their pick — show that as many as “15 to 20 percent” of battleground state voters remain “persuadable,” as he put it, despite what public polls say about the level of undecided voters.

“There are more voters than you’d expect who are just starting to pay attention to the election,” he said. “And there’s a lot of room for people to go back and forth.” […]

“Low information voters who haven’t been following this don’t know very much about Obama, in a way that might be different from other elections,” he said. “Voters are saying, `I really don’t want another four years of this, but I don’t know much about him.”

* As if the uncertain polling, the Tony Rezko deals, machine endorsements, and his ties to people like Senate President Emil Jones and Gov. Blagojevich isn’t enough already, the FBI is now reportedly looking into one of Sen. Barack Obama’s bestest buddies

FBI agents met with Will County Auditor Stephen Weber for two hours Wednesday morning regarding an investigation the auditor initiated into a countywide office, the Tribune has learned. […]

Sources say the investigation centers on Will County Executive Larry Walsh’s office. Walsh, who faces Joliet businessman Dan Kennison in the November election, was outraged by rumors that investigators were looking into whether one of his employees was improperly accepting payments from a lobbying firm hired by the county.

Walsh, a Democrat, blamed the accusations on gutter politics. Weber is a Republican who also faces a November challenger, Democrat Kevin Duffy Blackburn.

Walsh has been prominently featured in some of Obama’s TV ads during the presidential campaign.

* More

At 9:45 a.m., Chicago agent Joseph Basile and another man walked into the offices of Will County Auditor Steve Weber. They walked back out again just after 11 a.m. […]

“If you are insinuating that [chief of staff Matt Ryan] is receiving some kind of monetary reimbursement from them, I find that totally preposterous,” Walsh said.

The lobbying firm has secured quite a bit of federal funding for the county, including money to clean up and modernize the water and sewer system in Joliet Township’s Ridgewood neighborhood; to do engineering work at 143rd Street and Interstate 355; and to add laptop computers to the squad cars driven by Will County police. […]

“I have never received one nickel of compensation from anyone, including Mr. Smith, since I have been a county employee,” Ryan said.

Walsh is up for reelection, so this could just be a political game. But the timing isn’t just bad for Walsh, it’s bad for Obama.

Please remember our rule forbidding the use of mindless DC talking points in the comment section.
They’ll just be deleted anyway, so you might as well come up with something original to begin with. Thanks.

  41 Comments      


DCCC makes costly error; Schock can’t see writing on the wall

Monday, Sep 29, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The DCCC made a pretty stupid mistake when it waited until just the other day tot release these relatively (in campaign terms) ancient poll numbers

A Global Strategy Group poll conducted August 17-19 of 400 likely voters with a 4.9% margin of error shows Dan Seals within striking distance of Congressman Mark Kirk 39%-46% with 14% undecided. After voters are informed with each candidates’ message and bio, Dan Seals comes out ahead 45%-40%.

At the presidential level, Illinois Senator Barack Obama leads the district 51%-36% over Senator John McCain. President Bush’s approval rating in the district is an abysmal 21%.

“Republican Congressman Kirk is clearly extremely vulnerable for voting with his Republican leadership 88% of the time,” said DCCC Midwest Regional Press Secretary Ryan Rudominer.

* Kirk’s campaign released its own poll two weeks ago which showed him with a 22-point lead.

* That poll prompted Charlie Cook to downgrade the Democratic challenger’s prospects from “tossup” to “lean Republican”…

While we still expect Kirk’s lead in polling to close between now and Election Day as Democratic voters “come home,” it is notable that he appears to maintain a significant lead against 2006 Democratic nominee Dan Seals.

Unlike some of his perennially targeted peers, Kirk has been aggressive in going after his opponent early on in the general election campaign. He has leveraged his financial edge over Seals to run ads accusing the Democrat of wanting to raise the capital gains tax and holding a subsidized-gas stunt in the district that clogged traffic and earned a police fine. For his part, Seals will label Kirk as a pro-war Bush ally who is out of touch on the economy and in the pocket of big oil.

Republican polling showing a 20 point gap in this race paints a picture that is likely to fade over the next few weeks, as Democrats ramp up their attacks on Kirk and Seals has more of a chance to tie himself to Obama. But Kirk has run an impressive campaign to date, and has put more distance between his own standing and that of the top of the GOP ticket than we expected. This race is still highly competitive, but for now, it moves back to the Lean Republican column.

That won’t help at all.

* Meanwhile, GOP congressional frontrunner Aaron Schock is still having trouble with that Bush fundraising issue…

State Rep. Aaron Schock’s campaign manager said Friday that if U.S. Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign pays the local costs of police and fire protection during a visit to Springfield last month, then they might consider doing the same for Peoria.

Might consider?

Considering that Springfield is billing Obama’s campaign for a public event that could be attended by anyone for free (unlike Schock’s purely private event that charged an admission price), Schock may have to do more than maybe consider a refund…

A city of Springfield spokesman said the city, behind a policy of Mayor Tim Davlin, will charge Obama’s presidential campaign approximately $50,000 for a visit to the Capitol City on Aug. 23 to announce that Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., would be his running mate.

* And there was more on the Bush visit in today’s Peoria paper

Police Chief Steven Settingsgaard got his picture taken with President George W. Bush in July, when the president attended a fundraiser at Angus Weaver Farm in support of state Rep. Aaron Schock, who is running for Congress. […]

What we’re not sure about, though, is whether the chief paid the $5,000 asking price for the picture, if he got to keep the photograph for free, or if he even walked off with a photograph. Plus, who was “they?” He declined to answer follow-up questions we had about the picture.

Regardless of the merits of reimbursing the city, this has become a political no-brainer.

* More roundups…

* Ill. congressional candidate capitalizing on Obama

* Congressional ad battle focuses on George Bush

* Bill to block CN buy fails in House

* Bean, Greenberg share economic goals

* Cook Report Downgrades Dan Seals [With Seals TV ad]

  15 Comments      


Not that you may care what I think, but…

Saturday, Sep 27, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Both candidates failed miserably on the nation’s financial crisis during last night’s presidential debate.

I thought to myself several times throughout the debate that we were in some fantasy world where giant banks weren’t failing, credit wasn’t drying up at an alarming pace and the government wasn’t planning to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on a financial system bailout. It was simply bizarre, and the moderator, though he did try, failed miserably to press this point home with two candidates who obviously wanted to avoid the issue entirely.

* Both candidates also appeared at times to be running against each other for a US Senate seat. McCain did this more than Obama, but both were guilty. Subcommittees? Earmarks ad infinitum? Bills from long ago? What the heck? The presidency is not the Senate.

* Lacking any real “grand slam” lines, tone of voice and body language become the two most dominant things to look for in any televised presidential debate. There were no easily identifiable grand slam lines, so voice tone and body language is what most “average” voters came away with. McCain clearly lost in the short-term for this reason.

By the way, George Ryan had the same problem in his first debate with Glenn Poshard back in 1998. He was grumpy, aggravated and off his game. During the next debate, a morning event sponsored by ABC7, George was smiling all the time and very gracious to his opponent. Ryan’s “new” demeanor caught Poshard completely off guard and Ryan won that debate hands down.

If he’s at all able (and who knows if he is or not), McCain obviously needs to try his best to lighten up next time. Reagan came back from a horrible performance in his first 1984 debate to deliver his line about his opponent’s “youth and inexperience” during the next debate. Grand slam, big debate win, four more years.

And that’s an important lesson to keep in mind here. First debates are almost always overshadowed by subsequent performances. If McCain can alter his rather strange debate demeanor then he may win the next debate on the expectations game alone.

* Making sure you don’t get walloped in the days after the debate is also hugely important. If it can be shown later that a candidate is what his opponent says he is (in this case, that Obama simply doesn’t grasp important foreign policy issues), the candidate whom everyone thought won can lose big points. So, bringing up the Henry Kissinger stuff was a serious mistake for Obama because - whatever the merits of his points - Obama should’ve known that Kissinger would back up his friend McCain after the debate concluded. Major advantage to McCain on this one.

On the other hand, McCain closing with the line about how experience matters won’t go over well at next week’s vice presidential debate - and Gov. Palin’s absence from the postgame shows only drove this point home even more.

* Obama flubbed, but somewhat recovered, after McCain talked about his bracelet from one of the mothers who had lost her son in Iraq and had pleaded with him to not let her son die in vain. Obama, who just isn’t empathetic enough and rarely brings the names of common folks into his discourse, seemed to uncomfortably struggle at first to remember the name of the soldier on his own bracelet. The resulting pivot - that the mother Obama talked to didn’t want any more mothers to go through this experience - was good, however.

But while the majority of those polled may believe that Obama leans more towards their views on economic issues and Iraq, if the candidate doesn’t show that he truly connects with people on their individual everyday problems, the undecided middle may eventually conclude that he’ll just dump them when the going gets rough.

While that bracelet thing was eventually a decent pivot, both candidates have no real clue how to execute pivots on a regular and effective basis. Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan were masters of this. Both need to watch tapes of those two guys. After McCain made the point about a federal earmark to study the DNA of bears, Obama could’ve come back with Gov. Palin’s request of a federal earmark to study the DNA of harbor seals. It would’ve been a great comeback line, and set up next week’s veep debate as well. The Obama zinger about Spain’s prime minister and McCain’s attenuated line about Obama’s fake presidential seal didn’t work because nobody in the target audience really understood what was going on.

Sharp pivots - when a candidate takes a big hit, turns it around and throws it right back at his opponent with devastating impact - usually end up being “grand slam” debate moments. Learning to pivot means you’ve learned how to win a debate.

* It was kinda hilarious that cable commentators and major political bloggers went from calling the debate a draw before the snap polls were released, to attempting to explain why Obama won after the polls were made available. It should be funny to see how they react if polls show a different story in the coming days.

I thought McCain had a very strong, empathetic start with his opening remarks that followed Obama’s stiff, talking-points opening. My thinking was that if McCain and Obama continued along those lines, McCain would win the debate in a walk. But it quickly became clear to me as I watched (and I have the text messages to my intern to prove it) that McCain’s entire demeanor radically changed. Angry, impatient, refusing to look Obama in the eye while leaning away from him and staring uncomfortably off to stage right.

At one point, while Obama was saying something serious that McCain disagreed with, I could actually hear McCain scribbling furiously on his note pad. Not a good thing.

Temperament is an all-important aspect of any character debate. And “character” is central to most of those who can’t make up their minds until the very end. They don’t vote for parties, they say, they vote for the person. McCain failed that personality test on a grand scale.

Yet, almost no commentator made mention of McCain’s rather odd behavior until after the first snap poll was released. Either they were too polite to say anything, or too clueless to notice.

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Friday, Sep 26, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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