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Late news: Rotering back on Supreme Court ballot; Griffin contributes $1 million to HGOP Leader Durkin’s campaign fund

Thursday, May 12, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Today, Judge Maureen O. Hannon of the Cook County Circuit Court ruled that Nancy Rotering will be a candidate for Illinois Supreme Court Judge on the June 28, 2022 primary ballot. In response, Rotering released the following statement:

“We are grateful that the Court ruled in our favor today and upheld what we always knew to be true: that our nominating petitions complied with the Election Code. This effort to distract from the real issues that matter to voters was unsuccessful. Fighting for fairness is why I am in this race. We are pleased that the voters will have the opportunity to select me as their Democratic nominee for Illinois Supreme Court Justice nominee on Election Day, June 28.”

* And…


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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Update to today’s edition

Thursday, May 12, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Auditor General documents more DCFS failures

Thursday, May 12, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

Illinois’ long-troubled child welfare agency under Gov. J.B. Pritzker has failed to ensure adequate care for children in its charge and has not properly tracked cases referred to it by people who are legally required to report suspicions of abuse or neglect, according to a newly released audit of the agency.

The audit of the Department of Children and Family Services found failures to conduct required home safety checks before children are returned to their parents; to provide follow-up services for the required six months after a child leaves the agency’s care; and to make sure children in DCFS care are receiving appropriate medical checkups and immunizations, according to Illinois Auditor General Frank Mautino’s report.

The audit, which covered the 2020 calendar year, also found that the agency’s records system is unable to track or identify service referrals that fall under a recent state law requiring DCFS to treat a report of abuse or neglect as a referral for services when it is made by a legally mandated reporter, such as a teacher, and there is a documented prior case of abuse or neglect or an open investigation involving anyone in the household. […]

“What the hell were they doing?” Cook County Public Guardian Charles Golbert said of that finding. “That’s the most basic, essential thing that you do when you have a report that children are at risk. Everything else flows from the safety assessment.”

* From the summary

• Home Safety Checklists are home safety assessments and educational tools that assist in promoting the safety of children. A Home Safety Checklist is to be completed by DCFS whenever it is determined by a court that a child that has been court ordered into foster or substitute care can return to the custody of the parent or guardian. DCFS was unable to provide 192 of the 195 (98%) required Home Safety Checklists within our sample. Additionally, according to DCFS’ website, Home Safety Checklists had still not been updated with required new language as of March 16, 2022.

• Aftercare services are to be provided to the child and child’s family by DCFS or a purchase of service agency, and shall begin on the date upon which the child is returned to the custody or guardianship of the parent or guardian. However, DCFS did not ensure that children and families were receiving the recommended aftercare services for the required six months upon family reunification. Of the 50 cases tested, 29 (58%) did not have at least six months of documented aftercare services, according to information within DCFS’ system of record. In addition, aftercare services procedures were not updated to reflect the new requirements within Public Act 101-0237 until December 28, 2020, almost an entire year after the effective date of the Act.

• Children in DCFS’ care are not receiving their well-child visits/ check-ups as required by the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the Department of Public Health’s administrative rules, the Department of Healthcare and Family Services handbook for providers, and the American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines, as well as DCFS’ own procedures. Of the 50 cases tested within each category, 9 (18%) were missing at least one physical examination, 7 (14%) were missing at least one vision screening, 28 (56%) were missing at least one hearing screening, and 44 (88%) were missing at least one dental exam, according to data within DCFS’ system of record. There were also numerous data entry errors and inconsistent data entry locations for dates when services were received.

• Auditors attempted to review 50 cases to ensure that children were up to date on their age-appropriate immunizations. However, after reviewing 10 cases, it was determined that the immunizations data within DCFS’ system of record was unreliable for testing. DCFS was able to provide hard copy medical records showing that only nine influenza vaccinations were actually missing.

• The system of record for DCFS, the Statewide Automated Child Welfare Information System (SACWIS), is unable to track or identify child welfare service referrals and child protective investigations that are initiated as a result of the new requirements pursuant to Public Act 101-0237. Because DCFS was unable to provide a population, auditors were unable to test for compliance with the Public Act.

• When reviewing the organizational chart data provided by DCFS, auditors determined that 3,291 (55%) of the 6,037 positions listed within DCFS’ Operations divisions are categorized as unfunded. Of the 2,746 positions that are categorized as funded, 573 (21%) are vacant.

* The full report contains some sharp retorts from the auditors to the agency’s responses. For instance, here’s the DCFS response to the auditor’s recommendation that DCFS “should review the unfunded positions within its organizational chart data, and update the organizational charts accordingly in order to more accurately reflect staffing needs”

It is important to note that the number of positions necessary to fulfill the mission of DCFS is driven by caseload ratios that have been established for decades and are covered by a consent decree.

From the auditor

The B.H. Consent Decree requires that a caseworker be assigned no more than 12 new cases per month for 9 months of a year, and no more than 15 new cases per month for the remaining 3 months of the year. However, DCFS has not been in compliance with this provision of the B.H. Consent Decree since at least FY15 through FY20

There’s lots more, so go read the whole thing if you can.

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Campaign notebook

Thursday, May 12, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Jesse Sullivan’s campaign has told reporters that the candidate has “never” ever “lied” about his service. As we’ve already discussed, there’s definitely been some stretching. But an op-ed he wrote for the Catholic Community at Stanford’s newsletter contains this bio…

Jesse Sullivan ’15 has been led from government and nonprofit work, to joining the military and being deployed in Afghanistan, to attending Stanford’s Graduate School of Business and creating Alter, a start up organization in Haiti and Myanmar.

I asked the Sullivan campaign if he wrote that bio and if he didn’t, then why didn’t he correct the record. They referred me to this link, which didn’t really answer my question. Perhaps he’s too busy managing his plunging crypto accounts. /s

Sullivan wrote in the op-ed that he “was serving with the U.S. military in the deadliest district of the Afghan war,” so that may have naturally led the bio writer to assume he meant he was in the military, since that’s the common meaning of that phrase.

* Republican congressional candidate Catalina Lauf skipped a League of Women Voters candidates forum and her excuse was a doozy

Candidates are too afraid to go against the status quo - so instead, a lot of them get sucked into traps like attending forums hosted by far-leftist groups. These far-leftist groups control the questions and watch Republicans debate amongst themselves, so it’s not like we’re debating THEM. We are debating each other and they sit there and laugh! WE are NOT attending because we are not afraid to disrupt the status quo and we’re NOT going to cower to the mob, just like we won’t once we get to Washington. The League of Women Voters are anti-American, anti-women, anti-gun/anti-individual liberties and they should be exposed for what they are instead of supported.

Whew.

The excuse was called out for its lameness by the McHenry County Blog

If Lauf, or any of the 11th District Republican candidates really wanted to make a point with the LWV, all six candidates could/should have worked together and made sure no IL-11 Republican candidate attended tonight.

That would have upset the status quo and none of the candidates to my knowledge tried to organize an LWV boycott.

* Marie Newman, who is in a major Democratic primary battle against fellow US Rep. Sean Casten, writes about her abortion for CNN

I was just 19 years old and about midway through college when I found out I was pregnant. There was absolutely no way I could afford to raise a child. I was already working two jobs, which hardly covered enough money to support myself.

But it wasn’t just my finances that drove my decision to end my pregnancy. In my heart, I knew one thing to be true: As a teenager barely out of childhood myself, I simply was not ready to take on the monumental responsibility of becoming a parent.

From that perspective, terminating the pregnancy, while a difficult act, was not a difficult decision. A few days after my positive pregnancy test, I visited a reproductive health care clinic not far from campus to have an abortion.

Looking back more than 30 years, I have no doubt that I made the right choice. I am grateful for that teenage version of myself who had the wisdom and the courage to make that difficult decision. And I’m even more grateful that I had the freedom to exercise that choice.

Like many faced with similarly difficult options, I had a life ahead of me, a career and endless opportunities that eventually put me in a place where I was one day ready to start a family. And when I finally became a mom, it was among the most wonderful, meaningful experiences of my life.

* On the complete opposite side of the spectrum…

Illinois Family Action (IFA), the political arm of the largest pro-life/pro-family advocacy organization in Illinois, today endorsed candidate David Shestokas for Illinois Attorney General. “This primary election is critical for the direction of pro- family issues in Illinois and the Attorney General is a key office to protecting families’ freedoms of choice in education, religion, and life. We support David Shestokas because he has a long career of articulated personal commitment to defending the laws of God,” said David Smith, Executive Director of Illinois Family Action.

“David’s passion for truth and integrity in government shows he will protect the unborn from a wayward government that has been complicit in the murder of over 63,000 babies. He has shown dedication to justice and equality under the law and is a strong advocate for protecting our unalienable rights. David believes that the Attorney General is the people’s lawyer and not the governor’s or the government’s. He has an agenda to Make Crime Illegal Again by monitoring county state’s attorney’s failures to prosecute and will direct appropriate prosecutions when a state’s attorney refuses to do so. He will create a law enforcement hotline for officers who have put themselves in harm’s way to make a good arrest only to see prosecution declined. David has been an eye witness to illegal election activity and will fulfill the Illinois Attorney General Act’s directive to prosecute election crime with his experience to direct the office investigators. His record, vision, and integrity are why IFA endorses David Shestokas to be elected as the People’s lawyer, the Illinois Attorney General,” concluded Mr. Smith.

David Shestokas responded, “The IFA endorsement fortifies the troops of Illinois’ patriot campaigns in our historic mission to hold steady for the God loving, moral backbone of this country. I will continue to fight as David Smith has stated for preserving and advancing the interest of family, faith, and freedom. Thank you very much David Smith and IFA.”

* Well, I suppose that’s one way to spin an endorsement from a major trade union…

As part of his DC Swamp-funded campaign, RINO Rodney Davis is now being funded by one of Joe Biden’s major Super PACs.

The United Association of Plumbers and Pipefitters Union, which spent over $1.2 million attacking President Trump in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, is launching TV advertisements in support of RINO Rodney Davis.

Joe Biden’s liberal DC Super PACs are endorsing RINO Rodney Davis because like Joe Biden, RINO Rodney Davis supports red-flag gun confiscation and amnesty for illegal immigrants.

Today, we are launching a new website, www.RodneyTheRINO.com, where you can learn more facts about RINO Rodney’s embrace of the Biden Agenda.

RodneyTheRINO.com includes shocking facts on:

    • Rodney Davis supporting Dick Durbin’s federal gun confiscation
    • Rodney Davis joining Adam Kinzinger to support amnesty for illegal immigrants
    • Rodney Davis betraying President Trump in 2016
    • Rodney Davis embracing Liz Cheney for President
    • Rodney Davis voting for the January 6th Commission

I am honored to have President Trump’s endorsement and support because of my conservative America First record, which includes my unwavering support for the Second Amendment, border security, and ballot security.

* Press release…

Democratic Secretary of State candidate Anna Valencia today has released a new digital ad, “Choice,” highlighting her commitment to reproductive justice and history of working alongside women elected officials and community leaders fighting the Trump and Rauner administrations. Released in the wake of the draft Supreme Court opinion indicating the Court may soon overturn Roe v. Wade and following yesterday’s failed U.S. Senate vote to codify Roe, the ad highlights the clear choice for voters in the Democratic primary on June 28.

The video is here.

* Politico

Illinois House speaker gets fellow lawmakers to donate more than $200K to wife’s judicial campaign: “ShawnTe Raines-Welch, an attorney running for judge on the Democratic ticket, has vastly outraised her opponents in the obscure race for a newly created Cook County subcircuit court seat,” by WTTW’s Paris Schutz.

— Republican Dan Brady, the Illinois state representative and secretary of state candidate, will be feted at a fundraiser tonight cohosted by House Minority Leader Jim Durkin. Brady is running against former U.S. Attorney John Milhiser, who’s part of billionaire Ken Griffin’s Republican slate. Durkin is endorsing everyone on that slate but Milhiser.

— Rep. Sean Casten has been endorsed by Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas, state Rep. Justin Slaughter, and Tinley Park Mayor Mike Glotz in his bid for the 6th District seat. Full list

* There was apparently an embargo on this. No longer…


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Illinois Sports Facilities Authority emerges from S&P junk bond status

Thursday, May 12, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Late last month

The Pritzker administration is poking a $29 million hole in Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s re-election-year budget, a move prompted by slow-to-recover taxes on Chicago hotel rooms but also a sign of continued jostling between the two officials.

Earlier this week, the Illinois Department of Revenue notified the city that the state will be withholding $29 million in sales taxes that ordinarily would go into the city treasury—the so-called local government distributive share. Instead, that money will go to pay debt at the Illinois Sports Facilities Authority, the agency that owns and operates Guaranteed Rate Field, home of the White Sox, and pays the bond debt tied to the 2003 renovation of Soldier Field.

* And while that move may have angered the city a bit (even though state law is what it is and the city is flush with federal dollars), the action pleased S&P, according to the Bond Buyer’s Yvette Shields

S&P Global Ratings lifted the Illinois Sports Facilities Authority out from junk territory, upgrading the authority to BBB-minus from BB-plus.

The hotel taxes that repay its Soldier Field bonds are on the mend and the agency is no longer putting efforts to spare Chicago’s city government from covering gaps between its tax revenue and debt service.

Hotel taxes still lag the pre-COVID-19 pandemic era and aren’t expected to fully recover until at least 2024, but they are rising and the agency is recommending to its board for a second year in a row that its annual state hotel tax advance — formally known as the “chairman’s certificate” — fully cover debt service on $415 million of outstanding bonds.

“The upgrade reflects our view that ISFA will continue to request the full chairman’s certificate and that hotel tax receipts will continue to trend upward,” S&P analyst Geoffrey Buswick said Tuesday. “They requested the full amount last year and they have told us they intend to request the full amount this year.” […]

As the agency earlier this year projected another shortfall totaling $28 million, board members voiced concerns over the impact any further use of reserves or additional restructuring would have on the agency’s fiscal health. The agency also adheres to an additional bonds test requirement tied to hotel tax collections complicating refinancings.

* And here’s Greg Hinz on the latest Chicago Fed report

The monthly review of what top business leaders are saying indicates that the overall activity index dropped from +3 in April to -26 in May. That suggests overall economic activity in the region “was well below trend,” according to the report.

Activity had peaked in the second quarter of last year. With a few blips, it has slowly decreased, and now is at its lowest level since 2020.

The indexes of both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing also both dropped to -21 and -29, respectively, during the month.

* From the Chicago Fed

Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC)
May 2022

The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index decreased to –26 in April from +3 in March, suggesting that economic growth was well below trend. The CFSEC Manufacturing Activity Index decreased to –21 in April from +9 in March, and the CFSEC Nonmanufacturing Activity Index decreased to –29 in April from –2 in the previous month.

    • Respondents’ outlooks for the U.S. economy for the next 12 months deteriorated, and remained pessimistic on balance. Twenty-six percent of respondents expected an increase in economic activity over the next 12 months.
    • The pace of current hiring decreased, but respondents’ expectations for the pace of hiring over the next 12 months increased. The hiring index moved into negative territory, but the hiring expectations index remained positive.
    • Respondents’ expectations for the pace of capital spending over the next 12 months increased, and the capital spending expectations index turned positive.
    • The labor cost pressures index increased, but the nonlabor cost pressures index decreased. Both cost pressures indexes remained positive.

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*** UPDATED x3 *** Illinois Jewish Legislative Caucus members to Kari Steele: “Publicly repudiate the hate-filled rants and accusations leveled by your spouse and top campaign surrogate”

Thursday, May 12, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Kari Steele is an MWRD commissioner currently running for Cook County Assessor

Dear Commissioner Steele,

As Jewish leaders, we write to raise alarm about anti-semitic rhetoric being advanced by your spouse, Maze Jackson, a radio personality and podcaster with a YouTube channel. As you know, Jackson has served as a leading surrogate for your campaign, including speaking about it extensively on his show, and commenting on the record in a recent Chicago Tribune article about the race.

As you may also know, the past year has seen a record upsurge in the amount of documented antisemitic incidents, an increase of 34% in 2021 over any previous year, according to the Anti-Defamation League. These incidents range from vandalism and hate speech to threats and violent attacks. Obviously, this increase in attacks has been deeply disturbing and terrifying for our community.

Amidst this surge, Mr. Jackson has allowed his show to be used as a platform from which attacks on the Jewish community have been launched.

These attacks have been targeted at Jews in general, as well as several Jewish individuals and a major Jewish civic organization, all of them active in working for more affordable housing in the city. On April 13 of this year, Mr. Jackson referred on his show to an unnamed “Jewish organization,” which he alleges “controls” the affordable housing activists who are part of the Chicago Housing Initiative (CHI). CHI is a broad coalition of community organizations and agencies working to expand the supply of affordable housing units across the city. CHI is not “run” by a Jewish organization, although the venerable Jewish Council on Urban Affairs is an active and committed participant.

This is a classic dog whistle, calling forth the time-worn trope that Jews control social institutions behind the scenes. Mr. Jackson lends credence to the conspiracy theory in which Jews manipulate these advocacy organizations in order to undermine the Black community. His shows’ call-in segments include vicious, irrational rants filled with accusations against Jews, none of which he squelches, challenges, disputes or even interrupts. Mr. Jackson provides a public platform for virulent anti-semites. And it is dangerous.

What has prompted Jackson’s attack on Jews in the affordable housing movement? Apparently a recent report by the Better Government Association laying out the relationship between property developer Onni Group and Mr. Jackson himself, so infuriating Jackson to cause him to lash out.

(https://www.bettergov.org/news/ald-walter-burnett-softened-stance-on-affordable-housi ng-after-cash-flowed/).

Commissioner Steele, as an elected public official, we urge you to live up to your obligation to publicly repudiate the hate-filled rants and accusations leveled by your spouse and top campaign surrogate on the airwaves, and to show some leadership in uniting, rather than dividing, those who are working for the betterment of our county and its distressed communities. As a candidate for a post with a huge public responsibility, we urge you to display both moral courage and high ethical standards.

As Jewish leaders, we cannot be silent when any among us come under this sort of nefarious and dangerous attack. We ask that you reject Mr. Jackson’s hateful behavior, and set an example of standing up for all those attacked for race, religion, or gender.

Sincerely,

    Rep. Jonathan Carroll
    Rep. Kelly Cassidy
    Sen. Sara Feigenholtz
    Sen. Laura Fine
    Asst. Maj. Leader Robyn Gabel
    Rep. Jennifer Gong-Gershowitz
    Rep. Anna Moeller
    Rep. Bob Morgan
    Sen. Julie Morrison
    Rep. Denyse Wang Stoneback
    Rep. Sam Yingling

* April 13th, 2022

Pt 1: https://youtu.be/bErD3r39XLc
Pt 2: https://youtu.be/Ok3ZK3rjqpM

33:13: “…but what we found in our discussion, Reese, was that the white folks that was behind this action were willing to throw out all of the other people just to be in the new buildings, and what was actually happening was a war for white people who were trying to take over the housing market. And I don’t know if you all remember when I started getting deeper into this, I realized that CHI was putting Black people at the forefront of this fight but realistically they were being run by a Jewish organization, and they were attacking not only the developer, the alderman and myself because we weren’t going to be dictated to by Chicago Housing Initiative, and that, if you recall, is when I discovered the whole t-shirt program. Remember when we talked about in these housing fights we see people that are dressed up in a certain color t-shirt, they show up for the press conference and they’re on a bus brought by some group of white people that organize them, stands them up there, and the white person tells them what to say? Well, what I’m starting to recognize as this is happening is that this isn’t about keeping affordable people in the housing, in the building–it is these organizations that have decided that the new stomping grounds for control of Black of housing was in the 27th Ward.”

47:04: “I wake up this morning and I look at who’s tweeting [the BGA article], who’s sharing it and these white liberal… [Maze stops himself from continuing] I’m not gonna put the other descriptive descriptor on them, but I must be clear that there are certain groups of people who feel like they have dominion over us…”

* More

March 31st, 2022
https://youtu.be/SUYz8kgTCT0

02:55:00 Co-host DJ Riis “I’m not voting for JB, he’s a Jew. He don’t know anything” [Jackson makes hooting sound.]

DJ Riis: “He’s Jewish, [sarcastically] whatever you want me to say.” “He doesn’t understand me. He hasn’t been where I’ve been. I understand that they went through something. We went through 400 years, though!”

[Jackson later makes a joke about JB’s weight. No comments about the hateful rhetoric.]

Feb 25th, 2022
https://youtu.be/U3WoFbGNU1s

2:10:01 Jackson: “When [JB] says he’s Jewish, I thought [his ancestors] came from Israel”

Guest: “No, they stole that land in 1942. Them people lying, they the fake Jews. We the real truth. The letter J is the last letter added to the American alphabet check it out. …

02:11:06 “Just stay in touch with your boy. I’ll keep you educated about the fake Jews. They stole the land after WW2. They know it! Shalom.”

Jackson: “Shalom Shalom.”

There’s a lot more, so click here if you can stomach it.

* There’s also another angle. Jackson has taken to going after Joanna Klonsky, who he claims was “behind” the BGA report. According to the story, Jackson was paid $417,500 to lobby his longtime friend and ally Chicago Ald. Walter Burnett, who eventually flip-flopped to a position in favor of Jackson’s client

One of Jackson’s first reported actions on Onni’s payroll was to organize a fundraiser for Burnett.

Burnett later said he didn’t know the fundraiser was for Omni.

* Anyway, this is just a slice of what Jackson said about Klonsky, who is Jewish, on that program

Hold on. I just want to make sure y’all get an opportunity to see the picture. Right. So as you know, they quick to exploit us. They quick to exploit us. So… Which camera? … I want you to see her. I want you to know her. [Long pause while Jackson holds up her photo and name] That’s where the story came from.

Screen cap…

* Also…


*** UPDATE 1 *** Maze Jackson…

“I take full responsibility for the words I have said and that were said by others on my show, I recognize that they were wrong, and I sincerely apologize for the pain they have caused the Jewish community.

As many people know, I am a vociferous advocate for the Black Community and fight daily against the negative stereotypes and associations assigned to Black People. To have my show, a show I created to be a venue for open discussion without hate or discrimination, cause others to feel stereotyped is extremely disheartening, especially considering the important role Jewish people have played in my personal development and life journey including my Godfather who spent time discussing these serious issues with me. I understand that the Jewish community has faced many of the same hardships of the Black community and we should work together to address those common hardships.

Over the coming weeks, I will be meeting with leaders of the Jewish community to apologize for the words stated on my show, but more importantly I commit to working with Jewish leaders to build stronger relationships and find solutions on ways our communities can rebuild what was once seen as an unbreakable bond.

Again, I want to emphasize that The Maze Jackson Show on What’s in it for the Black People Media is meant to encourage open and inclusive discussions to promote understanding and discourage hate. I apologize for any content over the course of my show that would go against that mission. I have spoken to the staff of my show and we all pledge to do better.”

That’s a strong apology. Good for him.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Kari Steele…

“I unequivocally reject any hateful rhetoric and apologize for the comments made on my husband’s show and the hurt they caused the Jewish community. As a woman of faith, I believe that we must respect everyone’s religion and faith.

I rebuke hate as an option in any circumstance. When I heard about the statements made on my husband’s show I immediately condemned them and expressed my anger and disappointment to him. I have also encouraged him to meet with leaders of the Jewish community to apologize and to work to bring our communities together.

As many people know, Maze has devoted his career to the pursuit of equity and respect for the Black community. He deeply values the notion of equity and the dismantling of negative stereotypes.

Ultimately, despite Fritz Kaegi’s best efforts to make it seem like it, Maze Jackson is not running against him for Assessor. Like all women, I am not my husband.

I am a proven public servant with over ten years of unblemished experience, and I have led on encouraging inclusion and diversity in my office. Any notion that my husband controls what I think or do in my personal or professional life is, and has always been, fundamentally untrue.”

If he’s promoting her campaign, this is fair game. Period.

*** UPDATE 3 *** Reasonable…


  65 Comments      


More on that WGN poll

Thursday, May 12, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Background is here if you need it. Greg Hinz

If the latest poll is to be believed, the race for GOP rights to take on incumbent Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker is far too close to be called, though two contenders clearly are leading the pack.

According to the survey by WGN and Emerson College, Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin leads but, despite all his millions in paid TV ads courtesy of Chicago hedge fund mogul Ken Griffin, only has 24.1% of the vote. That’s really just a hair ahead of downstate conservative state Sen. Darren Bailey, with 19.8%. […]

Bailey not surprisingly is all smiles over the results, and says he’s just beginning to rev up in the Chicago market. Team Irvin says their polls are better, but concedes the mayor may have been hurt by millions of dollars targeting from the Democratic Governor’s Association in a clear effort by Pritzker to select his general election foe.

Bailey’s gonna “rev up” in Chicago with what money? It’s like a million dollars a week to go on the teevee in that city. Maybe he shouldn’t have been giving so much money away to his pals last year.

Also, Bailey has been telling his supporters for months that he’s ahead in the polls without offering up any evidence. And now he’s all smiles?

* Anyway, speaking of the Democratic Governors Association…

“This new polling makes one thing crystal clear: voters are getting tired of Irvin’s refusal to take a stand. His numbers have slipped, and the race is closer than ever,” said DGA Senior Communications Advisor Christina Amestoy. “Over the next two months, voters will watch as Richard Irvin — a pawn for GOP megadonor Ken Griffin — and far-right extremist Darren Bailey battle for the nomination. No matter which candidate clinches it, voters know the truth: Gov. JB Pritzker is the only proven leader for the state of Illinois.”

Irvin’s numbers have slipped from what poll?

* Somebody apparently forgot about the DGA and Dan Proft’s PAC money when this was written

Irvin has spent $12.2 million on TV ads, while Bailey has spent about $1 million. In Chicago, Irvin has spent more than 40 times as much on TV as Bailey, according to a source familiar with the numbers.

Irvin campaign’s curious response: “JB Pritzker and his allies are funding Darren Bailey’s campaign because they know that Richard Irvin is Pritzker’s greatest threat in November.”

That ain’t “curious.” It’s true.

* Center Square

The other four candidates trail with less than 10% each: businessman Gary Rabine (7.8%), entrepreneur Jesse Sullivan (7.3%), attorney Max Solomon (2.3%) and former state Sen. Paul Schimpf, R-Waterloo, (1.9%) […]

The economy is the top issue for 54.2% of those polled. Crime came in second (15.2%) with immigration (6.5%), COVID-19 (4.3%), education (3.6%), health care (4.7%) and the war in Ukraine (2%) rounding out the concerns.

It’s amazing to me that Jesse Sullivan could spend millions of dollars and is still trailing Gary Rabine, who’s barely spent a thin dime. And I do feel a bit sorry for Schimpf. He’s a good guy. But he’s running a bad campaign.

Subcribers know more about the issue section of the poll.

  51 Comments      


Bailey hints at possible Trump endorsement in Quincy

Thursday, May 12, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sen. Darren Bailey talking to WMBD’s Matt Sheehan, who asked if he thought he would get former President Donald Trump’s endorsement

I am the only America first candidate. I am the only true conservative. And I believe at the end of the day that’s going to earn Trump’s endorsement. There’s a possibility that he may be coming to the Quincy area before the primary and that, yes, we have very high hopes that we will be receiving his endorsement.

  50 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition

Thursday, May 12, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Open thread

Thursday, May 12, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* How’s it going?

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

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*** LIVE COVERAGE ***

Thursday, May 12, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive


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New WGN TV poll has Irvin leading Bailey by just 4 points

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Here we go…

* Story

A new WGN-TV/The Hill/Emerson College Polling survey of likely GOP primary voters shows Irvin leading the field with 24.1% support, followed by Bailey with 19.8%. […]

The gubernatorial primary also has an education divide: Irvin leads Bailey among those polled with college or postgraduate degrees 30% to 17%. Bailey leads Irvin among those without a college degree 23% to 18%. […]

Forty percent of Republican primary voters say abortion should be legal only in cases of rape, incest and when the woman’s life is endangered. Eighteen percent say it should be illegal in all cases and 15% say it should be legal up to 20 weeks. Another 15% say legal in all cases and 13% say legal up to six weeks of pregnancy.

Spend that kind of money and only leading in a reputable poll by 4 points? Not great.

* More at the link, but here’s something…


Not great for Rodney Davis, and Irvin better hope Trump doesn’t go with Bailey.

* More…



Crime doesn’t poll as high as one would think.

* The US Senate primary is wide open…


* Methodology

The Emerson College Polling Illinois poll of Republican primary voters was conducted May 6-8, 2022. The Republican primary sample consisted of somewhat and very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample of SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel provided by Amazon MTurk.

…Adding… Bailey campaign…

This polling confirms what most Illinoisans have known for months; this primary election is a two-person race for the heart and soul of our Republican Party. The choice is clear between a conservative Republican like Darren Bailey and a career Democrat like Irvin. Darren Bailey has stood up for working families and taxpayers from the beginning, and Richard Irvin is a Pritzker-hugging, basement hiding puppet of the political elites who is afraid to debate Darren Bailey. Our grassroots movement will continue to roll as our campaign begins to punch back and set the record straight. We’re ready for the fight. Darren Bailey will win this primary and defeat Pritzker in November.

…Adding… Irvin campaign…

JB Pritzker and his allies are funding Darren Bailey’s campaign because they know that Richard Irvin is Pritzker’s greatest threat in November.

  72 Comments      


Question of the day

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

State Senator Patrick Joyce joined discussions on the impact of rising input costs and food supply issues – a problem that has drawn attention from President Joe Biden, who stood alongside Joyce and others at a Kankakee farm Wednesday.

“When you have the unique opportunity to advocate for our local communities to the President of the United States, you take it,” said Joyce (D-Essex). “You know that Ag inputs and food shortages are an important issue when it has gotten the attention of our nation’s top leader.”

Prices of crop nutrients such as potash have skyrocketed as sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine have disrupted already tight supplies. Russia and Belarus last year accounted for more than 40% of global potash exports, one of three critical nutrients used to boost crop yields.

Russia also exported 11% of the world’s urea, and 48% of the ammonium nitrate. Russia and Ukraine together export 28% of fertilizers made from nitrogen and phosphorous, as well as potassium.

Fertilizer costs across the board have skyrocketed, leaving Illinois farmers to cope with these input costs.

“There’s no doubt the issue abroad is devastating,” Joyce said. “This is a global issue that needs our nation’s full attention. The state needs to take a hard look at increasing local production of these vital resources for the Ag community.”

* Accompanying photo…

* The Question: Caption?

  27 Comments      


Tim Johnson

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Brenden Moore

Former U.S. Rep. Tim Johnson, R-Urbana, who represented swaths of east-central Illinois for more than a decade, died Monday evening. He was 75. […]

Johnson served in Congress from 2001 to 2013, representing a mostly-rural east-central Illinois district centered around Champaign-Urbana that also took in portions of Bloomington-Normal and the outskirts of Decatur.

A Champaign native and graduate of the University of Illinois, Johnson did not wait long to enter politics, first winning election to the Urbana City Council in 1971. He later served as a member of the Illinois House from 1977 until his election to Congress in 2001.

During his time in Washington, Johnson became known for his quirky quest to call all 300,000 households in his district, an effort that led him to call as many as 100 constituents per day.

He was constantly on the phone calling constituents when he was in the Illinois House.

* WAND

In 1971, Johnson became a member of the Urbana City Council.

He never lost an election and, in his latest run, he was voted onto the board of Parkland College in Champaign in 2015.

He never stopped working.

* Tom Kacich

“He was the best retail campaigner that I’ve ever seen or ever heard of,” said Jerry Clarke, who was Mr. Johnson’s chief of staff for 10 of his 12 years in Congress. “Over the years, Tim would talk to these other members of Congress about his constituent calls. And I cannot tell you how many other congressmen came to me and sat in my office and said, ‘Explain this whole system to me.’ I would tell them right upfront that ‘You will never do this. I don’t know anyone else who would do this.’” […]

“I remember we did a poll before one of our races and we asked a question like, ‘Have you ever personally talked to Congressman Johnson?’ And 72 percent of the people we polled said yes,” Clarke recounted. “Everybody that called his office stated with, ‘Hey, I’m a friend of Tim’s …’ That meant nothing to the staff because everyone who called in said they were his friend.”

“People didn’t call him Congressman Johnson. They called him Tim,” recalled Joan Dykstra, who worked in his congressional office and later was the mayor of Savoy. “If you ask anyone who worked for him, they’d tell you he created a lot of work for the staff because he would go into McDonald’s or a bar and ask people how he could help them. Then he would write those famous notes to the staff and we had to follow up with solutions.” […]

Mark Shelden, a former elected official in Champaign and Champaign County, was Mr. Johnson’s last chief of staff.

“As a Republican, he was idiosyncratic,” said Shelden. “He was a trial lawyer and he probably voted for more environmental issues than some moderates or liberals. He didn’t have any signature pieces of legislation that you could point to. He just had votes that were representative of the people he served.”

He was often underestimated. I remember the first time I ever saw him. I was outside the House floor and this skinny man walked by with messed up hair and wrinkled clothes and I asked somebody who the heck that guy was and was floored when I heard the answer (and I’ve never been a snob when it comes to appearances). He was a bit of an odd duck, but hugely successful in politics.

* Speaking of underestimated, this is from the New York Times more than 20 years ago

Back in 1980, when he was one of the newer members of the Illinois House, State Representative Timothy V. Johnson, a Republican from the Champaign-Urbana area, rigged a paper clip so that it held the ‘’Yes'’ voting button on his desk in the down position. When a picture of the clip hit the newspapers, he first denied installing it but later backtracked, saying such rigs were ‘’accepted practice'’ in the legislature and enabled members to vote on legislation even when absent from the House chamber, especially at times when votes were called while members were meeting with constituents or working on other pressing matters.

That explanation apparently satisfied voters in Mr. Johnson’s district. He still represents it 20 years later.

But now he has his eye on a larger district, the 15th Congressional, which has an open seat this year, and the photo of the paper clip has come back to haunt him.

His Democratic rival, Mike Kelleher, has dredged up the shot and contends it says much about Mr. Johnson’s worthiness to serve. He has posted newspaper articles about it on the Web — timspaperclip.com — and is running ads about it.

He went on to beat Kelleher by almost 7 points.

  16 Comments      


Pritzker talks abortion in Metro East

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* WTVO

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker held a press conference at a Planned Parenthood recovery center on Wednesday to urge federal lawmakers to protect Roe v Wade. […]

“More than 75% of this clinic’s patients are from out-of-state – coming from places like Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, and Kentucky, sometimes traveling eight-plus hours and hundreds of miles to get basic reproductive care,” Pritzker continued. “Often these patients have struggled to get the necessary childcare, lodging, and time off work. They’re patients who’ve struggled to find enough money to travel this far. Patients who’ve had to answer personal questions to their employers or had to invent a reason to be gone for days. Patients who’ve faced hurdles at every turn in the pursuit of basic healthcare. And let’s be crystal clear about this point: abortion is healthcare.”

* From today’s press conference…

Q: Are you doing anything that will protect abortion providers from being criminalized by other states?

A: We are looking at, I have actually engaged the Attorney General’s office as well as my own general counsel’s office in the legislation that we might be able to put together to protect people from being sued or being held criminally liable for performing reproductive rights procedures in the state of Illinois. It seems to me that that is something that it also is going to be litigated through the courts because it it is ridiculous to me that you could have this kind of cross border attack on people in the state of Illinois. So we’re going to do everything, everything within our power to protect our providers, and to protect people who are seeking to get the services they deserve.

* New York Times last month

Connecticut lawmakers approved a bill late Friday night that takes direct aim at states that have passed aggressive anti-abortion laws as the country prepares for a Supreme Court ruling this summer that could weaken or overturn the constitutional right to abortion enshrined in Roe v. Wade.

The Connecticut bill, which Gov. Ned Lamont, a Democrat, has said he intends to sign, would expand the field of people who can perform certain types of abortions beyond doctors, to include nurse-midwives, physician assistants and other medical professionals.

And in what lawmakers said could be a model for other states seeking to safeguard abortion rights, the law would also shield abortion providers and patients from lawsuits initiated by states that have banned or plan to ban abortion, even outside their own borders.

The law would protect a provider in Connecticut who administers an abortion that is legal in the state to a resident of a different state where the procedure is illegal, by prohibiting Connecticut authorities from cooperating with investigative requests or extradition orders from the patient’s home state. The law would also allow people who are sued over their role in providing an abortion to countersue in Connecticut court, and to recoup legal fees and other costs if they win.

Gov. Lamont signed the bill.

* Pritzker was asked about the new Connecticut law today…

We’re trying to make sure that we’re looking at the Connecticut law, as well as making adjustments that we think might be even better to protect the providers.

He also said he is also looking at allowing advanced practice nurses to perform abortions and provide scholarships to bring more people into the profession.

* Politico

At least 23 states are likely to ban or severely limit access to abortions should Roe be overturned, including states with pre-Roe bans still on the books or so-called trigger laws that would take effect quickly, if not automatically. Should those all come to pass, it would jeopardize abortion access for some 36 million women of reproductive age, according to the Guttmacher Institute.

And the medical migration has already begun. Planned Parenthood health centers in states bordering Texas saw a nearly 800 percent increase in abortion patients from September, when the state’s six-week abortion ban took effect, through the end of December 2021, as compared with a year prior. More than 500 out-of-state patients per month sought care from Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California during that time.

If Roe is overturned, Planned Parenthood of Illinois, which is surrounded by states that would restrict access to the procedure, expects abortions in its clinics to triple from what was 10,000 to 12,000 a year to as many as 30,000 a year.

“We have definitely seen an increase in the number of patients from out of state — from Texas, and now Oklahoma and Florida,” said Jennifer Welch, president and CEO of Planned Parenthood of Illinois, in an interview. “Before Texas, we would see about 4 to 6 percent of abortion patients from out of state. And now it’s about 8 percent of our abortion patients from out of state. We’re preparing for 20,000 to 30,000 abortion patients from out of state annually.” […]

In Illinois, philanthropic organizations are stepping in to help pay for transportation, lodging and child care for patients coming from out of state, and the city of Chicago is allotting $500,000 to help pay for those costs as well. […]

Medication abortions are only a viable option in the first 10 weeks of a pregnancy. Several states already ban or restrict abortions via telemedicine, and more could follow if Roe is overturned, raising legal questions for both patients and providers.

  13 Comments      


Campaign notebook

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tom Demmer and Shannon Teresi…

It’s no secret this year’s budget is filled with election year gimmicks, including some blatant attempts to buy votes with tax rebates featuring the names of statewide elected officials. Today, Treasurer candidate Tom Demmer and Comptroller candidate Shannon Teresi are calling on Michael Frerichs and Susana Mendoza to display they are opposed to the corrupt practice of campaigning on taxpayer dollars by keeping their names off of these checks and any other communications or promotional materials associated with this election-year gimmick.

State checks are signed by the comptroller and treasurer. Not sure how they could keep their names off of them.

* CD6 GOP primary candidate brings the (un)usual suspects together…


* Meanwhile, Gary Rabine finally issued a statement today (Wednesday) about Richard Irvin’s Monday press conference…

This is what a train wreck looks like. $45 million can’t paper over a bad candidate who would be a horrible Governor. Republicans – don’t be fooled by Fake-Republican-Governor-Candidate, Richard Irvin. I’m the only candidate in this race with the experience to turn this state around. I am the common sense candidate who can’t be bought.”

Rabine’s video is here.

* Speaking of which

During an unrelated bill signing event at the Peoria Civic Center on Tuesday, the governor said Irvin should be able to answer questions directly.

“It’s very important to answer questions, especially if you’re going to put yourself forward to the public and ask them to trust you and believe in you,” he said. “They’ve gotta know where you stand on the issues.” […]

Pritzker didn’t directly answer Irvin’s allegations about his management of the veterans home crisis, but the governor claimed it’s hypocritical for Republicans to criticize him for his handling of the crisis, even as they pushed back against the COVID mitigations his administration imposed.

“We were trying to keep people healthy and safe in the worst moments of this worldwide pandemic, deadly pandemic. And it was necessary for us to ask people to do the right thing. The people at that press conference, all of the people fought the mitigations, including the gentleman you’re talking about,” he said, referring to the Aurora mayor.

Um, Mayor Irvin publicly supported the mitigations and even threatened to crack down on his local violators, even though he’s running away from that stance as fast as he can right now.

* Back to the far right

A suburban Republican congressional candidate has distanced herself from a pro-Christian, conservative political group with which she’d been aligned, saying she disagrees with many of its tenets — especially strict limits on divorce and eliminating court-ordered child support.

Jaime Milton, a Fox River Grove resident running in Illinois’ 14th District, said she reevaluated her association with the Kingdom Conservative Party. […]

She said she strongly disagrees with the Kingdom Conservative Party’s stance that divorce should only be allowed in cases involving adultery or when “an unbelieving spouse” no longer wants to be married. […]

Milton also disagrees with the group’s objection to court-mandated child support, which it calls an “unconstitutional practice” that’s allowed socialism “to permeate our nation.” […]

Milton said she isn’t fond of the party’s disdain for government aid for the poor, either. While the group called it “a pathway to communism,” Milton said she supports “giving people financial assistance to get them on their feet.”

* Politico

Samantha Steele’s team jumped the gun in telling Playbook that she was endorsed by Iris Martinez, the clerk of the Circuit Court of Cook County. Martinez has not endorsed Steele, who is competing against incumbent Michael Cabonargi. In fact, Martinez hasn’t made a decision in the Board of Review race.

* Rockford Register Star

Republican candidate for Illinois governor Darren Bailey made a campaign stop in Rockford Monday, telling a crowd of about 300 supporters that he’s the man to unseat JB Pritzker in November. […]

“The polling and our grassroots (efforts) are proving to us that we are going to win,” Bailey said. “By this fall, when people understand inflation that’s coming our way, when businesses unemployment insurance fees are almost double, when people are being let off of work and they are earning 20% less benefits, when the gas price continues to go up and doesn’t go down, people are going to be waking up and realizing that something’s not right.” […]

Area Republicans in attendance Monday included Winnebago County Sheriff Gary Caruana, County Board Chairman Joe Chiarelli, and state Sen. Dave Syverson. The fundraiser was sponsored by Elevate & Inspire, Awake Illinois, Freedom Illinois, and Freedom Now Initiative.

…Adding… I checked with the reporter who wrote that story and Sen. Bailey did not take news media questions at his Rockford event.

* More…

* State rep candidates square off at forum - Zalewski defends record on abortion rights, Rashid slams ties to Madigan: Rashid mentioned that Zalewski’s father, who he didn’t name, is one of those mentioned in the charges against Madigan as getting a contract with ComEd for little or no work. Rashid described Zalewski’s father as a ghost payroller for ComEd. Zalewski responded by saying that he will not criticize his father. “You’re never going to get me to say a cross word about my dad,” Zalewski said. “I love him dearly. I’ve known the man my entire life.” Zalewski described how his father rose from humble beginnings. “I’m the son of a garbageman,” Zalewski said. “My dad was on the back of a garbage truck. He worked his way up.”

* Billionaire Ken Griffin is Illinois’s biggest political benefactor. But what are his donations doing to democracy?: Beyond that, an examination of Griffin’s political spending shows that he has consistently funded campaigns that distort issues and ignore facts, sometimes appallingly so, playing to voters’ worst instincts and contributing to the growing toxicity of our political life. … But it may be Griffin’s support of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Super PAC backed by House Republican leadership, that has done the most to promote a toxic political culture. Griffin donated $10 million to CLF in the 2020 election cycle, up from $4.5 million in the previous two-year cycle, according to Federal Election Commission records. And he gave $11.5 million last year alone, with the current cycle just getting underway. According to the Guardian, CLF “[uses] inflammatory tactics to paint political opponents as unsafe or untrustworthy” and “has a particular reputation for running what critics see as sometimes race-baiting attack ads.” In 2018 the Guardian included three CLF ads among the five “most bigoted and divisive political ads” of the year. Reviewing a selection of three years of CLF ads, Politifact determined that more than half were “false” or “mostly false.” Just 13 percent were “mostly true” and zero were completely accurate.

  17 Comments      


Crime issue roundup

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* New York Times

Gun deaths reached the highest number ever recorded in the United States in 2020, the first year of the pandemic, as gun-related homicides surged by 35 percent, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Tuesday.

“This is a historic increase, with the rate having reached the highest level in over 25 years,” Dr. Debra E. Houry, acting principal deputy director of the C.D.C. and the director of the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, said at a news briefing.

More than 45,000 Americans died in gun-related incidents as the pandemic spread in the United States, the highest number on record, federal data show. The gun homicide rate was the highest reported since 1994.

That represents the largest one-year increase in gun homicides in modern history, according to Ari Davis, a policy adviser at the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions, which recently released its own analysis of C.D.C. data.

* From the CDC

From 2019 to 2020, the overall firearm homicide rate increased 34.6%, from 4.6 to 6.1 per 100,000 persons. The largest increases occurred among non-Hispanic Black or African American males aged 10–44 years and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) males aged 25–44 years. Rates of firearm homicide were lowest and increased least at the lowest poverty level and were higher and showed larger increases at higher poverty levels. […]

The findings of this study underscore the importance of comprehensive strategies that can stop violence now and in the future by addressing factors that contribute to homicide and suicide, including the underlying economic, physical, and social inequities that drive racial and ethnic disparities in multiple health outcomes. For example, policies that enhance economic and household stability (e.g., temporary assistance to families, child care subsidies, tax credits, housing assistance, and livable wages) can reduce family poverty and other risk factors for homicide and suicide (e.g., family stress and substance use) (3,4,12–14). Communities can also implement locally driven approaches that address physical and social environments that contribute to violence and other inequities, with the potential for immediate benefits. Approaches such as enhancing and maintaining green spaces and the remediation of vacant buildings can reduce opportunities for violence and promote positive social interactions. These approaches have been associated with significant reductions in risk for firearm violence (13,15). For example, a study in a major U.S. city found that restoration of vacant lots (e.g., cleaning up debris or adding vegetation) was associated with significant reductions in firearm assaults, with the largest reduction (29%) in areas with the highest poverty

* Sun-Times

Following Chicago’s deadliest year in decades, the number of people shot and killed in the 15 communities targeted in Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s signature anti-violence plan has fallen by 26% ahead of the historically brutal summer months — a pivotal stretch in what she has described as a “make-or-break year” for lowering crime. […]

Through May 8, the targeted communities on the South and West sides saw a 19% decline in homicides and a 28% drop in non-fatal shooting victims from the same time last year, according to a Chicago Sun-Times analysis. Across the city, those numbers have fallen 7% and 17% respectively, accounting for a 15% overall drop over the same period. […]

But despite trending in the right direction, the toll is still far higher than in both 2019 and 2020. At least 901 people have been wounded by gun violence through May 8, 173 of them fatally. Seventeen more people have been killed by other means. […]

A more simple explanation for the downtrend, according to Wesley Skogan, a Northwestern University professor who specializes in crime issues: The weather has been unseasonably crummy this year.

The warming weather produced some ominous results this week…


* Meanwhile, here’s Ashna Arora and Jens Ludwig writing in the Tribune

To figure out what’s going on with [electronic monitoring], we obtained data from the Cook County sheriff’s office, which as best we can tell is responsible for about 60% of all monitoring cases in the county. We haven’t been able to get data on the rest of the county’s EM cases, run by the chief judge’s office. Using the data we have, we focus mostly on what’s happening in Chicago to start to get a better picture of EM. […]

Nonetheless, as best we can tell from the available data, crimes committed by people on EM don’t seem to be driving the current wave of gun violence.

First, the timing doesn’t seem to be quite right. While the EM population rose in 2020, the jail population was largely flat during this period. Taken at face value, this would seem to imply that the increase in EM cases is coming from people who would have otherwise been released on bond, not people who would have gone to jail.

Another way to see that the timing is not right is to look at the likelihood someone arrested in a gun violence case goes to jail. We can’t measure that perfectly, but we can look at the ratio of people jailed on homicide or nonfatal shooting charges to the number of people arrested for those crimes. If EM were driving gun violence, we might have expected a big drop around 2020 in the chances those arrested in shootings wound up in jail, but that doesn’t seem to have happened.

Finally, the total numbers just don’t seem to add up. In 2020, there were 274 more homicide victims in Chicago than in 2019. By comparison, the number of people arrested for a homicide they allegedly committed while out on EM increased from 2019 to 2020 by only four — from four to eight arrests. Even accounting for Chicago’s historically (and notoriously) low rate of making arrests in homicide cases, the so-called clearance rate, it seems very unlikely people on EM are driving our massive rise in gun violence.

Looking at data for nonfatal shootings tells a similar story.

* WMBD

Among pieces of legislation Pritzker signed at the Peoria Civic Center Tuesday, was one crafted by State Representative Jehan Gordon-Booth allowing for mental health responders on police calls related to victims of violent crime. […]

Money for hiring and retaining police officers, funding to help witness protection programs and making it safer for victims to report crimes, and paying for the funerals of children who die due to violent crime were the other initiatives signed into law by Pritzker. […]

[Peoria Police Chief Eric Echevarria] says more than 1,200 police calls last year alone were related to a person who was feeling suicidal, or who had committed suicide, among other statistics on calls.

* Tribune

The bill also requires homicide detectives to undergo “trauma-involved training,” according to the Pritzker administration and created a grant program to create tip hotlines and various victim and witness resources.

The bill also reauthorizes a witness protection program with $30 million set aside for it in the upcoming state budget. The program had been neglected for years by state legislators and past governors who failed to earmark funding for it. […]

He also signed a bill to aid in the recruitment and retention of police officers across the state.

“There are those that would like for us to believe that you have to choose between police or community, and I believe that is a failed notion,” said state Rep. Jehan Gordon-Booth of Peoria, whose stepson was fatally shot in 2014. “Police are community. The community needs the police, and it is our jobs as leaders to identify the paths to create a better opportunity for community and police to work together better, to work together stronger.”

* SJ-R

Adequately funding police departments is the intention of another bill signed by Pritzker on Tuesday. HB 3863, which was approved unanimously by both chambers of the legislature, creates the Law Enforcement Recruitment and Retention Fund. The fund will be used to award grants to local governments, colleges and nonprofit entities “for the purpose of hiring and retraining law enforcement officers,” according to the new law.

* More…

* Billionaire Ken Griffin laments Chicago violence, donates $25M to train police leaders: Griffin is contributing $25 million to launch two academies at the University of Chicago that will provide six months of training to police leaders here and across the country and to people who run violence interruption groups. “It is time to bring the data-driven revolution to public safety,” said Griffin, the founder of the Citadel investment company, during a ceremony announcing the two Community Safety Leadership Academies.

  28 Comments      


Rate the new Villegas TV ad

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This buy is “cable with some broadcast included”…

Today, Alderman Gilbert Villegas released the first television advertisement for his congressional campaign in Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District. In the 30-second ad, six-figure buy, Villegas shares his personal story and why the struggle of working families is so personal to him.

* Ad

* Script

VO: “Bien vestido, Bien recibido”
(Translation: Well dressed, Well received)

GV: I was raised by strong Latina women. After my father’s sudden death, it was my abuela, food stamps, and public housing that helped my mom make ends meet.

It wasn’t easy, but I found my place in service. As a Marine, a union truck driver, an Alderman I have fought the fights for everyday working people and won.

We need representatives in Washington who can get real results for our community.

That’s why I’m running for Congress.

Join us.

I am Gil Villegas and I approve this message.”

  11 Comments      


Protected: *** UPDATED x1 *** SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Rate the new Rodney Davis TV ad

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Today, Rodney Davis’ campaign for Congress in the 15th District released a new ad titled “Bill,” which features Lt. Col. Bill Buechsenschuetz, Army, Retired, who served in the Vietnam War. Bill talks about how Mary Miller betrayed our troops by voting with the Squad to defund our military. Bill also talks about Rodney’s work to strengthen our military and support our veterans.

“As long as I am in Congress, I will never allow our military to be defunded. Unfortunately Mary Miller can’t say the same. She needs to stop hiding from her record of voting with the Socialist Squad to defund our military and come clean to voters. I will always stand with our troops and veterans. America’s safety is my top priority.” - Congressman Rodney Davis, Republican candidate for Congress in IL-15

Mary Miller twice voted in September and December against defense funding legislation, known as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which provides the Department of Defense (DOD) with the legal authority to spend taxpayer dollars in support of our military. Miller teamed up with AOC and other far-left members of the Squad in opposing the NDAA.

In December, Miller bragged about being the only Republican from Illinois to vote against the NDAA and called Republicans who voted for it RINOs. Mark Maxwell previously reported on Miller’s vote against the NDAA in December.

Rodney Davis proudly voted in support of the NDAA and has worked in Congress to support our troops and veterans.

* The spot

* Script

Bill: I served in Vietnam, and I’ll never forget the way politicians betrayed me and my fellow soldiers, and that’s why I cannot support Mary Miller.

In Congress, Miller voted with the Squad to defund our military. Voting against our troops in these dangerous times is indefensible.

Rodney Davis is fighting to strengthen our military, and he has the backs of veterans.

Rodney: I’m Rodney Davis, and I approved this message.

“Voted with the Squad” is a nice touch, and accurate. There’s an old saying about how ideology is a circle and eventually the right and left meet. It’s not completely true, of course, but it seems to apply in this instance.

* Meanwhile, from US Rep. Miller…

Congresswoman Mary Miller released the following statement congratulating Trump-endorsed Congressman Alex Mooney for winning the Republican Primary in West Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District:

“With President Trump’s endorsement and the backing of grassroots conservatives, Alex Mooney was able to defeat the DC establishment in a stunning victory that all of the “experts” said would be impossible,” said Miller.

“I look forward to continuing to serve in the House Freedom Caucus with Alex to advance President Trump’s policies including securing the border, returning America to energy independence, and defending the Second Amendment. Alex Mooney’s victory is an important reminder that Republican Primary voters want to support pro-Trump, pro-Second Amendment conservatives, and they will not be fooled by Swamp-funded RINOs who voted for the January 6th Commission like Rodney Davis.”

Miller serves in the conservative House Freedom Caucus with Rep. Alex Mooney, and both were endorsed by President Trump in competitive Republican primaries caused by Congressional redistricting. Like Mooney, Miller is running an America First campaign against an establishment Republican funded by the DC Swamp.

With 95 percent reporting, Rep. Alex Mooney has secured 54.3 percent of the vote to Rep. David McKinley’s 35.5 percent.

  35 Comments      


Celebrate Illinois Statesmanship

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

Nominations are open now for the Paul Simon-Jim Edgar Statesmanship Award.

The annual Paul Simon-Jim Edgar Statesmanship Award is presented to a former or current state or local government official in Illinois who has demonstrated a pattern of public service characterized by vision, courage, compassion, effectiveness, civility, and bipartisanship.

Former Governor Jim Edgar and the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute invite you to nominate an Illinois elected official who has displayed this kind of exceptional leadership.

We created the Simon-Edgar Statesmanship Award to shine a spotlight on remarkable public service that is taking place in our state and local communities. Please join us as we celebrate the Prairie State’s best traditions. Nominate an Illinois statesperson by June 1.

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Open thread

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Go Sox.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

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*** LIVE COVERAGE ***

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

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* Edgar Fellows Class of 2024 unveiled
* Uber Partners With Cities To Expand Urban Transportation
* Governor Pritzker endorses Kamala Harris for president (Updated)
* Mayor Johnson's actual state ask is $5.5 billion, and Pritzker turns thumbs down
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* Selected press releases (Live updates)
* Pritzker, Durbin, Duckworth so far keeping powder dry on endorsing VP Harris (Updated x7)
* Biden announces withdrawal from reelection (Updated x3)
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