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Another Quinn closer

Monday, Nov 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I saw this ad Saturday night in Chicago. Yet another closer TV ad and another traffic change from Gov. Quinn

* Background…

A governor can make a decision that changes everything—in just 30 seconds.

Bruce Rauner says he’ll cut the minimum wage, but not before he gives himself and billionaires like him a $1 million tax break. His budget plan would lay off 1 in 6 teachers.

Governor Pat Quinn will raise the minimum wage, and he’ll never cut our kids’ education to give a tax break to the wealthy.

That’s the choice in this election—you decide.

* And here’s some of what the governor was up to today

I’ve asked he Rauner campaign if they had anything new. I’ll share if they do.

  28 Comments      


Question of the day

Monday, Nov 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sum up this campaign season in one word, and one word only. No “new” words, please.

  208 Comments      


Fumbled, recovered, score

Monday, Nov 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Statehouse reporters repeatedly asked former Gov. Jim Edgar about his past derogatory statements about Bruce Rauner, back when Edgar had endorsed Kirk Dillard in the GOP primary.

Over and over, Edgar successfully deflected the questions, saying that the choice today is between Bruce Rauner and Pat Quinn. But then he kinda slipped up…

“I wish he had more government experience”

Oops.

But then he quickly recovered…

“But that doesn’t guarantee…Pat Quinn’s had a lot of government experience and I don’t think he has done that well. It’s why we need to make the change.”

* The exchange begins at the 27:45 mark

  46 Comments      


All we might know is, it’s gonna be close

Monday, Nov 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Be careful with this analysis. From Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog

Quinn, of Illinois, looked to be in the most danger of these three incumbents. My polling-based analysis in early summer had him with a 25 percent chance to beat Republican Bruce Rauner. At the time, however, I warned that Quinn probably had a better shot than early polls suggested. Quinn is a Democratic governor in a Democratic state. He won in 2010 despite an approval rating of 40 percent (at best) and with only about 15 percent of voters saying the state was heading in the right direction.

This year, Quinn’s approval rating is again between 35 percent and 40 percent. And again, he looks like he may win. His campaign has somewhat successfully painted Rauner as an out-of-touch millionaire. According to a recent Chicago Tribune poll, voters are more likely to say Quinn is in touch with people like them. They also view him as more honest than Rauner, even if they think Rauner can better handle the economy.

The fight between an incumbent people don’t approve of and a challenger with his own flaws has resulted in a close race, but one in which Quinn is a favorite. The FiveThirtyEight model gives him a 66 percent chance of winning.

They’ve got Quinn winning by just 1.3 percentage points.

* Quinn won four years ago 46.79 percent to 45.94 percent - a margin of just 0.85 percent.

Gov. Quinn will probably need to increase his 2010 percentage to win this year because there were three other candidates on the ballot last time who took a combined 7.27 percent of the vote. Unless the Libertarian can reach that number, Quinn has to better his numbers in the face of strong GOP headwinds and a gazillionaire opponent.

Either way, we’re talking little bitty numbers here. Tiny fractions of percentage points here and there can win this thing or lose it.

According to 2010 exit polling, Democrats made up 44 percent of the electorate, Republicans were 32 percent and indies were 24 percent. Needless to say, Quinn didn’t get many independent votes. He had to scramble like mad.

* There was a big spike over the weekend in Chicago, where early voters, absentee returns and grace period voting totaled 33,625. Lines were long everywhere. I figure another 6,000 more absentees will eventually be mailed in, based on past performance, but that could increase as well. So far, 39,638 more Chicagoans have voted before election day than in 2010.

But also keep in mind that some very GOP-leaning townships in suburban Cook are reporting huge early vote/absentee numbers, as are the collar counties. Downstate remains a question. Anecdotal info abounds. The unions in Madison and Rock Island counties did an extraordinary job with the early vote, for instance.

Again, a million different factors are at play here. FiveThirtyEight predicted Bill Brady would win last time with 51..5 percent of the vote to 44 for Quinn. His model had 86.7 percent confidence in 2010, but 66 percent today.

* Also, Sun-Times

After delivering a speech to volunteers in Chicago, Durbin spoke of the Democrats’ bid to target so-called “drop-off voters” as well as the party’s field operation. The party identified 900,000 people who have voted in a presidential election but tend to skip off-year elections. Each of those voters were contacted three times, Durbin said.

Durbin said on Saturday alone, Democrats knocked on 142,000 doors statewide. […]

More than 430,000 people have turned out to vote early in Illinois, breaking a record set in 2010. Both Republicans and Democrats claimed the news was good for their side.

“We feel great. We (knocked on) 90,000 doors yesterday,” which is more doors than in 2010, Rauner campaign manager Chip Englander said. “We have the largest grassroots force that has ever been in Illinois. We have over 10,000 volunteers in every corner of the state. I think it’s been unmatched by anyone, ever.”

Yes, the Democratic program is much bigger than the GOP program, but that’s because the GOP program is brand new. It’s something they didn’t have in 2010.

…Adding… These are not Democratic bastions, to say the least

In suburban Cook County, more than 169,000 voters have cast early ballots, Cook County Clerk David Orr said.

The busiest early-voting sites in suburban Cook County were Orland Township, with 8,222 voters, followed by Arlington Heights (7,740 voters) and Northbrook (6,289).

  53 Comments      


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Monday, Nov 3, 2014 - Posted by Advertising Department

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*** UPDATED x1 *** Unclear on the concepts

Monday, Nov 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This Chicago Sun-Times editorial made me chuckle today

Should the state Constitution be amended to tax the incomes of millionaires an extra 3 percent, money that would go to schools? We urge a strong Yes vote on the concept embedded in this question, even if you disagree with the particulars. Illinois should move to a progressive or graduated income tax system, one that imposes higher rates on higher earners and is based on the ability to pay.

This is the same newspaper which endorsed Bruce Rauner, who is flatly against a progressive tax, including a millionaire’s surcharge.

* Meanwhile, from a Tribune editorial

That bogus budget has Illinois spending nearly $36 billion this fiscal year, with $8 billion of that coming from the income tax increase. The Jan. 1 partial rollback will shave second-half revenues by about $2 billion. What to do?

Recall that the taxers of 2011 have continued to raise spending. The threat of an aggressive cost-cutter being elected governor explains why so many vested interests fear one outcome in the race: As we’ve noted, different candidates have different ideas about what Springfield “needs” or “must have” or “can’t possibly cut.”

With Illinois in an emergency, its credit rating dismal and its economy moribund, we’d take hard looks at capital spending (read: politicians’ pork projects) from general funds, the eligibility of Medicaid recipients, the salary structure of state government and all the multimillion-dollar line items that Springfield’s apologists dismiss as too insignificant to deliver big savings. When you only have to cut $2 billion, every million helps. (Mr. Madigan, about that $35 million for a school in your district ….)

Illinois collects $18 billion a year in income taxes and $8 billion in sales taxes. That gouges working-class and middle-class families more on how much they work than on what they consume. We would expand Rauner’s proposed broadening of the sales tax to include virtually all consumer services, which account for two-thirds of Americans’ consumption. Done right, broadening the sales tax base while letting Quinn’s income tax surcharge die could let the sales tax rate drop.

* Look, cutting $2 billion worth of programs in the second half of a budget year is like cutting $4 billion for the full year. That’s painful, no matter how you look at it. And the longer you wait to do it (the budget address isn’t until late February) the harder it becomes.

Sure, you can do some things, like no new capital projects (but you still gotta pay off the bonds from the rest of the projects), you can move money around with interfund transfers, slice here and dice there, put off paying bills, etc. and limp through the rest of the fiscal year. You could ask AFSCME to reopen the contract, but good luck with that, so there will be no real savings until the following fiscal year or unless the GA goes along with any schemes to bust the union.

And the following fiscal year is where the real pain comes - particularly if too many cans are kicked down the budgetary highway - and that’s why Rauner is now saying he’ll gradually step down the tax hike instead of eliminating it immediately.

* And, yes, spending has gone up in the past four years mainly because the state is finally making its pension payments and the GA and the governor refused to cut education funding. And despite some big cuts to Medicaid, growth is still high.

Also, implementing a brand new service tax right away just can’t happen. Most of these businesses have never, ever paid sales taxes. Getting that program up and running just can’t be done overnight. You can hike income taxes and implement it right away (even do it retroactively) because the system is already in place. But it’ll take time for barbers, laundromats, lawyers and everyone else to get up to speed on a totally new tax (not to mention the time it’ll take to pass a tax like that).

And a service tax will only replace about a quarter or so of that $8 billion in revenues lost when the income tax hike goes away.

* The Tribune is also conveniently forgetting that Rauner wants to massively increase education and higher education funding and has promised spending increases for IDNR, DCFS, IDOC and lots of other stuff, including a huge new capital plan. That will necessitate even more cuts elsewhere or more revenues.

Getting back to the Sun-Times editorial for a moment

Raise minimum wage to $10 an hour by Jan. 1

As noted in our recent endorsement of a $13 minimum wage for Chicago, it’s past time to raise the minimum wage. Both Chicago and the state need a higher wage, if only to make up for an stagnant low wage that hasn’t kept pace with inflation. We urge a Yes vote to send a strong message to state legislators to get cracking.

That’s diametrically opposed to an editorial the Sun-Times published just last year...

Right now, Illinois’ minimum wage of $8.25 already is $1 higher than Kentucky, Indiana, Iowa and Wisconsin and 90 cents higher than Missouri. In fact, Illinois’ minimum is the fourth-highest in the nation. Raising it any further would put the state at too much of a disadvantage in the competition for jobs.[…]

Any hike in the hourly minimum wage should be done nationally

  35 Comments      


Not a bad idea at all

Monday, Nov 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the good ideas that are probably going nowhere department

As you’re aware, the governor has crisscrossed the state during the closing weeks of the election doling out pork barrel projects, ranging from roads to new buildings for universities.

It’s a time-worn campaign tactic that shows off the power of incumbency.

One state lawmaker wants to put it to an end.

Under legislation introduced Tuesday by state Rep. Anthony DeLuca, D-Chicago Heights, no executive branch constitutional officer or member of the General Assembly would be allowed to make public announcements of any state grant or state-funded project of any kind within 60 days before a general election.

It’s weird that Rauner didn’t really use the quotes from a state employee who acknowledged he was hoping to announce projects before election day. Quinn handed out tons of pork after that quote, but Rauner sent out only a couple of early press releases and never followed up after Friday’s big spending binge by Quinn.

DeLuca’s bill, by the way, is here.

  36 Comments      


This is the business we’ve chosen

Monday, Nov 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* John Oliver gives us a decidedly liberal take on state legislatures, including an appearance by Rep. Mike Bost (5-minute mark), but it’s worth a watch (some profanity, mostly bleeped) and it’s pretty darned funny

  19 Comments      


A picture is worth a thousand, um, mailers…

Monday, Nov 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A reader sent along a photo of all the direct mail he’s received this fall. His explanation…

I live in Carol Stream, in the 46th district. Probably 75% of this is Deb Conroy/Heidi Holan back and forth.

The pic…

* And, while we’re at it, this was sent by Republican House candidate Leslie Munger’s campaign manager…

Rich,

Here’s a picture for your files. Taken yesterday in Grayslake, Illinois, Route 120 (see attached).

We couldn’t figure out why all of Bob Dold’s large yard signs sit perpendicular to the road and Brad Schneider’s signs face parallel. It turns out they had a printing error and all of Schneider’s large signs are printed upside-down on the back.

The pic…

Oops.

  25 Comments      


Personal PAC responds to Diana Rauner

Monday, Nov 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* If you were hanging out at the blog this weekend or are trying to catch up on all the posts today, you know that Bruce Rauner’s wife Diana launched a diatribe against Terry Cosgrove and Personal PAC for supporting Gov. Quinn instead of her husband. Planned Parenthood responded and now Personal PAC’s chair has also responded…

Dear Friend of Choice and Personal PAC:

Some of you may have received an email or letter from Diana Rauner on Friday taking issue with Personal PAC’s endorsement of and efforts to re-elect Pat Quinn, the most pro-choice, pro-family and pro-woman Governor in the entire country. With so much at stake on Tuesday, I felt compelled to write to all of you one final time to set the record straight.

Personal PAC is a single issue, non-partisan political action committee, and we have endorsed and worked hard to elect countless pro-choice Republican and Democratic candidates over the past 25 years. In that time, we have learned that just like a woman can’t be a little, somewhat or mostly pregnant, a candidate can’t be a little, somewhat or mostly pro-choice. You either believe and support, in word and deed, reproductive rights for all women, or you don’t and Bruce Rauner does not, by his own admissions and his own actions.

In this campaign, Personal PAC has focused on the facts—what have the candidates said, what have they done, and how have they spent their money. We have put those facts into the public record through emails, direct mail, newspaper, television and radio. The Rauners have had every opportunity to refute those facts, but they have not done so publicly. Here are a few examples:

    * Bruce Rauner personally selected a Lt. Governor running mate from the far right-wing of the Republican party who opposes legal abortion. 25% of all Lt. Governors in the U.S. become Governor. Pat Quinn is our very own example of this fact.

    * Bruce Rauner has given millions of dollars to right-wing anti-abortion organizations and candidates, including Tea Party candidates, who not only work to make abortion illegal, but are now denying women access to birth control. His money has done immeasurable damage to women all over the country.

    * Bruce Rauner recently met with a group of anti-abortion activists and told them “I believe life begins at conception.” So-called Human Life Amendments putting “life begins at conception” into law would outlaw all abortion and most forms of birth control.

There is more, but I think you get the picture. These are not the deeds or words of a pro-choice candidate.

We applaud Diana Rauner for her pro-choice views. But she is not on the ballot, Bruce is. History has shown that even with pro-choice spouses like Laura and Barbara Bush, both Bush presidencies did not result in any progress for reproductive rights.

I also have to address the baseless personal attacks on Terry Cosgrove, Personal PAC’s President and CEO and my friend. It is not an overstatement to say that Terry has given his life to defending reproductive rights for the women in our state. Before coming to Personal PAC, Terry was an activist and leader in many human rights issues, including helping to write and pass two of the earliest Human Rights Ordinances in the country, serving as Chair of the Urbana Human Rights Commission in the late 1970s, serving as chair of Illinois Men for the ERA, raising money for women athletes to successfully file a lawsuit against the University of Illinois for violating Title IX, and filing the first successful legal action in the country challenging discrimination in public accommodations based on sexual orientation. He continues his work year after year, despite receiving death threats and having his nose and collar bone broken by bigots. Terry’s appointment to the Illinois Human Rights Commission in 2011 was based on these unmatched credentials. For Diana Rauner to question Terry’s commitment and integrity is outrageous.

Governor Quinn knows that sound economic policies begin with sound reproductive health policies. I hope you and everyone you know will stand passionately with the women of Illinois and proudly cast your vote for Pat Quinn.

Thank you very much for your attention to this important matter. Feel free to forward this on and remind your family and friends to vote on Tuesday!!

Sincerely,

Melissa Widen, Chair
Personal PAC Board of Directors

* Related…

* Social issues catch up to Rauner, the man with no social agenda< /blockquote>

  50 Comments      


Quinn campaign attempts to blunt Edgar impact

Monday, Nov 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Former Gov. Jim Edgar will campaign with Bruce Rauner today in Bloomington, Springfield, Moline, Rockford and Lincolnshire. The Quinn campaign is attempting to tamp down some of Edgar’s impact…

Top 4 Jim Edgar Quotes on Out-of-Touch Billionaire Bruce Rauner

Quinn for Illinois Responds

CHICAGO - As former Republican Gov. Jim Edgar joins Bruce Rauner on the campaign trail today, the people of Illinois were reminded of how Edgar really views out-of-touch billionaire Bruce Rauner’s candidacy.

This spring, Edgar correctly criticized Rauner’s campaign as divisive and one that was designed to appeal only to top-tiered income getters. Here’s our top 4 favorite quotes from Edgar about Rauner

1. “Governor to a bunch of rich Republicans”

Edgar stated: “If you’re governor for the state of Illinois, you’re governor for everybody. You just can’t be governor to a bunch of rich Republicans,” and time has borne these warnings out.

Confirming Edgar’s concerns, Rauner’s campaign platform has included lowering the minimum wage, giving impassioned defenses of outsourcing American jobs and a very unfair tax plan that would blow a hole in the budget, slashing education for working families while increasing the burden onto the backs of the middle class to give the wealthy tax breaks.

2. “We cannot afford a governor who has to learn on the job”

Edgar also questioned Rauner’s experience to be governor - experience that later was revealed to include outsourcing jobs overseas, laying-off workers and irresponsibly slashing care at hi nursing homes. Edgar said: “We cannot afford a governor who has to learn on the job.”

3. Rauner will “divide the state”

Edgar cautioned against Rauner’s hostility toward workers by noting Illinois can’t afford a leader that will “divide the state.”

4. One Reason Rauner is a Contender in Governor’s Race: “Money”

Edgar also noted - in a single word - the single reason Rauner was in this race to begin with: “Money.”

Below is the response of Quinn for Illinois Deputy Press Secretary Izabela Milkto:

“Governor Edgar had it right when he made clear that billionaire Bruce Rauner would be a candidate who would put the interests of the wealthy like him over the interests of the rest of Illinois.

“Mr. Rauner proposes lowering the minimum wage, defends shipping jobs overseas and has put forth a tax plan that gives himself a $1 million tax break while transferring the burden onto the backs of working Illinois families.

“As Governor Edgar made clear earlier this year, Rauner can’t be trusted to look out for working families. We wholeheartedly agree.”

And they have a video

You can bet that the Edgar appearance will be a net plus for Rauner, despite Quinn’s attempts to make it a negative.

  51 Comments      


Polling, schmolling

Monday, Nov 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sun-Times

A new poll conducted just days before Tuesday’s election shows the race between Gov. Pat Quinn and Republican challenger Bruce Rauner is “too close to call.”

The poll, released by Public Policy Polling, shows Quinn getting 47 percent support, while Rauner comes in at 45 percent. Libertarian candidate Chad Grimm is polling at 3 percent, while 5 percent say they’re undecided. The poll, conducted Saturday and Sunday among 1,064, has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

* From PPP

Pat Quinn is one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. Only 31% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 54% who disapprove. But he’s still clinging to a slight lead for reelection over Republican challenger Bruce Rauner, 47/45. Only 58% of Democrats approve of the job Quinn is doing, but 83% are nevertheless voting for him. Rauner is under water on his favorability but still in much better standing than Quinn, at 39/42. This is a race where the Libertarian candidate could play spoiler for GOP hopes. Chad Grimm is only polling at 3%, but those voting for him say they would pick Rauner over Quinn 54/14. In a head to head without him Quinn and Rauner would be tied at 48.

PPP surveyed 1,064 likely voters in Illinois

* But check this out

* OK, now look at the difference in results between phones and Internet

Iffy, to say the least.

* And here’s one that the Rauner campaign is shopping

* They have Rauner leading…

But what about that methodology?…

That means, of course, that new voters aren’t contacted.

Ogden & Fry is owned by Tom Swiss, the Chicago Republican who attempted to fly under the radar a couple of years ago in the Democratic primary and lost. His company is mainly about robocalls and the like, although he did come pretty close on the Chicago mayor’s race a few years ago.

  49 Comments      


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Monday, Nov 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Good morning!

Monday, Nov 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I saw AC/DC open for Aerosmith in 1978. I’d never heard of them before, but they totally blew Aerosmith off the stage.”Frenetic” is a word that comes to mind. I had to know more. Who were these guys?

And when Bon Scott died a couple of years later, a bunch of us got together and lowered our high school’s flag to half mast

And you could hear the fingers pickin’
And this is what they had to say:
Let there be light
Sound
Drums
Guitar
Let there be rock

  41 Comments      


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