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Two new polls have Trump maintaining lead, Rubio tanking

Sunday, Mar 13, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Reader comments are now open.]

* For context, the Tribune poll (March 2-6) had Donald Trump leading with 32 percent, Cruz at 22, Rubio with 21 and Kasich at 18 with 7 percent were undecided. The We Ask America poll (March 7-8) had Trump at 33, Cruz with 20, Kasich at 18, Rubio with 11 and 16 percent undecided.

* CBS

* Methodology

This CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is a panel study based on 5,300 interviews conducted on the internet of registered voters in Florida, Illinois, Ohio. The poll was conducted by YouGov, an online polling organization.

It’s difficult to say with certainty whether Cruz is surging because of our next poll result. But, hey, these races can and do turn on a dime, so nobody really knows what’s going to happen. Friday night’s UIC rally could make a difference, or not. Trump is clearly hoping it will, considering his remarks since then, but so do his opponents.

* NBC

* Methodology

In Illinois, the poll surveyed 1,968 registered voters (plus-minus 2.2 percentage points), 529 likely Democratic primary voters (plus-minus 4.3 percentage points) and 421 likely GOP primary voters (plus-minus 4.8 percentage points).

* Related…

* @moniquegarcia: State Rep. Cabello introduces Trump, defends his record on minorities. Points to his Mexican heritage but says above all, “I am American.”

* @ChiTribCloutSt: At the Trump rally, a woman sang the Star-Spangled Banner. And now state Rep. John Cabello is endorsing Trump, citing gun rights support.

* Trump backlash swift and loud, but does it matter?: “Donald Trump created that hostile environment,” said state Rep. Ed Sullivan, a Mundelein Republican and backer of Ohio Gov. John Kasich. He predicted a backlash against Trump. But if there isn’t one, Sullivan said, “God help us.”

  17 Comments      


Two polls show Bernie Sanders surging in Illinois as primary nears

Sunday, Mar 13, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Reader comments are now open.]

* For context, the Tribune’s poll (March 2-6) had this race at 67-25 for Clinton, while the We Ask America poll (March 7-8) had Clinton’s lead at 62-25. Things can change fast in presidential primaries, so a Sanders surge wouldn’t be a huge surprise, especially after what happened to Clinton in Michigan.

* With that out of the way, let’s start with this new survey…


* From CBS

In Illinois [Sanders] is leading among white voters and is supported by almost one quarter of African Americans. In Illinois Sanders leads Clinton on the metric of being honest and trustworthy, and is helped by a majority of voters wishing to switch to more progressive policies than those of the Obama administration.

But keep this in mind

This CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is a panel study based on 5,300 interviews conducted on the internet of registered voters in Florida, Illinois, Ohio. The poll was conducted by YouGov, an online polling organization.

Not loving that type of poll, but whatever.

Also, the high margin of error means this is still anybody’s ballgame, but if Sanders is indeed surging, the trend is not Clinton’s friend (and, yes, those are hack phrases, but I felt like using them anyway - it’s the weekend).

* On to NBC

She’s above 50, but, again, that apparent Sanders surge must have her worried and is probably why I see Sanders’ ads all over my teevee right now. Sanders has been smartly making the horribly unpopular Mayor Rahm Emanuel a major campaign issue, saying recently that he’s happy Rahm didn’t endorse him, telling reporters that if he lived in Chicago he’d be involved in the “Resign Rahm” movement and running ads blasting Emanuel. As we’ve already seen, numerous legislative candidates have attempted to tie their opponents to Emanuel in their Democratic primary campaigns this season.

* From NBC

The size of Clinton’s lead in all three states directly correlates to her advantage with African-American Democratic voters - 57 points in Florida (77 percent to 20 percent), 48 points in Ohio (72 percent to 24 percent) and 39 points in Illinois (67 percent to 28 percent).

Among Latinos, Clinton holds just a five-point edge over Sanders in Florida, 51 percent to 46 percent, while Sanders leads Clinton among Latinos in Illinois, 64 percent to 30 percent.

That huge Sanders lead over Clinton among Latinos here is somewhat unexpected, but he has the strong endorsement of people like Chuy Garcia.

* Methodology

The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls in Florida, Illinois and Ohio were conducted March 4-10… In Illinois, the poll surveyed 1,968 registered voters (plus-minus 2.2 percentage points), 529 likely Democratic primary voters (plus-minus 4.3 percentage points) and 421 likely GOP primary voters (plus-minus 4.8 percentage points).

  45 Comments      


Trump Chicago roundup

Saturday, Mar 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Reader comments are now open.]

* Two completely polarized views of what happened in Chicago last night…



* Walsh is a Trump supporter, and he took what is usually the standard conservative line: Blame the black, brown and hippie protesters. But the right is split because Trump is still fighting off Republican presidential rivals. Some of Trump’s GOP opponents pounced on him for inciting violence and Fox News at times seemed unsure about what slant to take last night. Also, check this out…

To: Illinois Media
From: Illinois Patriotic Veterans, Inc.
RE: Trump Hate Speech
Date: 3.12.2016

Illinois Patriotic Veterans, Inc. condemns the continued political hate speech of Donald Trump which last night resulted in discord and violence at Trump’s Chicago rally which he cancelled.

The First Amendment does not protect Trump’s speech when he suggests violence against those who have protested at some of his recent events.

Last night, Trump ran away from the violence which he himself created in Chicago, just as he ran away in 1968 from his military obligation to defend our Country.

Jim Nalepa, Illinois Chairman
Paul Caprio, Director

Paul Caprio ain’t no leftie. At all.

…Adding… Caprio’s group has a new radio ad which rips Trump a new one…

* Moving right along, as I noted on Friday, some early arrests were made at the rally. But the anti-Trump folks were there in force, and their chants appeared to halt further arrests.

* And speaking of arrests, a journalist for CBS was busted last night for no apparent reason

Sopan Deb was on the floor of the arena as tensions built - raw emotions on both sides.

He interviews both protesters and Trump supporters.

Police clear the pavilion, and the streets outside are quickly blocked.

Tensions are high. Deb shoots video of an arrest. Police surround a man whose face is bloodied.

Protesters scream at police.

Deb says he was thrown to the ground and handcuffed, without notice or warning.

Illinois State Police charged him with resisting arrest although there is no sign of that on the video.

* But the Illinois State Police say they had no role in the arrest…

Hi Rich

The CBS reporter was not arrested by ISP. The officers in the video making the arrest are uniformed CPD.

M/Sgt. Matt Boerwinkle
Illinois State Police
Chief Public Information Officer

* As you probably saw elsewhere, Trump said he canceled the event after discussing things over with law enforcement

“I spoke with law enforcement and made [the call to cancel] in conjuction with law enforcement, and I think we made a wise decision,” Trump said in a phone interview on MSNBC.

* The Chicago Police Department said they had nothing to do with it

However, CPD spokesman Anthony Guglielmi said the department never told the Trump campaign there was a security threat at the venue. He said the department had sufficient manpower at the scene to handle any situation.

Mr Guglielmi said the decision to cancel the event was made “independently” by the campaign.

Interim Supt John Escalante confirmed in a press conference that police became aware the event was being cancelled at 6:30pm, adding: “The Chicago Police Department had no role, we were not consulted or provided an opinion as to whether or not the event should be cancelled.

The U of I police claimed they were surprised at the “abrupt” cancellation of the event. The Illinois State Police’s spokesman I quoted above told me “I’m not aware of any advice given to his campaign.”

* And there is some speculation that Trump never actually even arrived in Chicago…


* Mark Brown was supremely unimpressed with the anti-Trump crowd

To be clear, I’m glad people came out to protest Trump. I was hoping for it.

But as I watched an elderly man with a walker trying in vain to return to his car because idiots were running wild through the parking garage where many of Trump’s fans parked their cars, I was ashamed.

“This is what free speech looks like!” shouted a leader of the protesters on his megaphone while the old man asked the police if it was safe yet to get to his car.

I hope this isn’t what free speech looks like.

Agreed, but when covering a big, fast-moving event like that, it’s easy to become overwhelmed by the brief moments that you, yourself see.

* Related…

* Who is Jedidiah Brown, the pastor who stormed Donald Trump’s rally in Chicago?

* @BYP_100: One of our beloved members was beat & hospitalized by police at anti-Trump protest in Chicago. Taken straight from ER to jail. #FreeTimothy

* Donald Trump, Chicago, and the Lessons of 1968

* @PhilipRucker: Loud boos at Cleveland rally venue when announcement instructs Trump fans not to physically harm protesters.

  67 Comments      


Proft’s closing ads in McCann district

Saturday, Mar 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Reader comments are now open.]

* The first closer by Dan Proft’s Liberty Principles PAC is called “Dishonor” and hits Sen. Sam McCann hard because he “lied his way into office… We can’t trust him again.” Oof

* The second is a positive spot for McCann’s Republican primary opponent Bryce Benton, who Proft claims will “challenge Madigan at every turn”

* Related…

* Sam McCann campaign hits Bryce Benton on PCCC financial losses

  16 Comments      


Two new TV ads in Madigan district

Saturday, Mar 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Reader comments are now open.]

* The first ad was recorded off WGN TV last night by a subscriber using his mobile phone. The ad was paid for by Blair Hull’s Illinois United for Change PAC. It hits House Speaker Michael Madigan on his property tax business, whacks him for not increasing the minimum wage “even though voters approved it,” and says one of his “top lieutenants took bribes from the company that makes red light cameras.” It’s a pretty good ad

If they had started running it a week or two ago and had lots more money behind it (from what I can tell, only about a hundred grand has been spent so far), that ad could’ve left a major mark.

* The second TV ad is somewhat unusual. This spot was also recorded by a subscriber using his mobile phone and it features Congressman Luis Gutierrez speaking Spanish. Check out how “soft” the ad makes Madigan appear as he speaks with his constituents

…Adding… Helpfully translated by the original sender…

Gutierrez: “When it comes to protecting our working families, few work harder than Mike Madigan. Michael Madigan supported a tax on millionaires in order to create a billion dollar fund to guarantee a better education for our children and their success. He has also demanded that banks give homeowners more time to make their payments. March 15 is our opportunity to vote for Mike Madian.”

  2 Comments      


Sen. Mark Kirk says he’ll endorse Trump if nominated

Saturday, Mar 12, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Reader comments are now open.]

* Pearson

Lost in the coverage of Friday night’s protests was the announcement that Republican U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk, viewed as one of the most politically vulnerable senators seeking re-election, said he would support Trump if he won the GOP presidential nomination. Kirk’s comments came during an interview with WMAQ-Ch. 5 before the Trump event was called off.

* According to the Duckworth campaign, Kirk told Channel 5 “If he’s the nominee, I certainly would,” when asked about endorsing Trump.

The Duckworth campaign’s response…

“Two men are making news in Illinois tonight. One of them recently said people ‘drive faster through’ black neighborhoods, called a U.S. Senator a ‘bro with no ho,’ and suggested President Obama’s end goal for the Iranian nuclear agreement was to ‘get nukes to Iran.’ The other man is Donald Trump.

…Adding… The video clip

* But Sen. Kirk’s timing was unfortunate, to say the least

Republican presidential candidates Marco Rubio and John Kasich suggested Saturday they may not support Donald Trump if he becomes the GOP nominee, as violence at the front-runner’s rallies deepened the party’s chaotic chasm.

Rubio told supporters that while he was currently sticking with his pledge to back the nominee if he wasn’t the party’s choice, “it’s getting harder every day.”

Kasich said the “toxic environment” Trump is creating “makes it very, extremely difficult” to support him.

“To see Americans slugging themselves at a political rally deeply disturbed me,” Kasich said while campaigning in Cincinnati. “We’re better than that.”

Rubio and Kasich have previously committed to backing Trump should he win the Republican nomination, despite reservations about his qualifications. Their extraordinary shift came hours after clashes between Trump supporters and protesters Friday night in Chicago, and just a few days before Tuesday’s elections in five delegate-rich states.

  12 Comments      


Reader comments closed for the weekend

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I may very well be posting this weekend, but I don’t wanna deal with comments, so we’ll all jabber together on Monday unless something big happens.

In the meantime, the ACLU of Illinois urged the University of Illinois at Chicago earlier today to make sure protesters’ rights were respected at tonight’s big Donald Trump rally. According to the group, the university has responded…

They went out of their way to assure that they are committed to student safety and free speech, and that they have developed protocols to address the issues that we raised in the letter. They are going to use video cameras to document any incidents as thoroughly as possible and have conveyed to the police that people should not be removed unless they are truly disruptive. We are hopeful that some of the incidents elsewhere will not be repeated here. We will see how it goes.

But…


Follow along on Twitter here and here. Be warned, though. There’s some not exactly family friendly stuff in some of those tweets.

* After all the craziness this week, here’s an Oscar the Puppy photo to help us ease our way into the weekend…

* Later, gator….

They have the time, the time of their life

  Comments Off      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Fundraiser and event list

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Politicians behaving badly

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The funniest thing about this story is that Harris claims to be the one who called the cops

Suburban police officers were to called to a west suburban community center on Wednesday in response to a basketball court fight involving a Democratic candidate for the Illinois legislature who allegedly was “out of control,” according to the police report obtained by The Illinois Observer.

Franklin Park police responded to a call regarding a fight at the Franklin Park Community Center during a basketball game that included ex-Forest Park Commissioner Chris Harris who is running for the Illinois House against incumbent State Rep. Chris Welch (D-Hillside).

The police report said officers were called to the scene and that community center “employees” allegedly wanted Harris “removed from the property” because he was’ “arguing with the subjects on the basket ball court.”

The report said Harris was allegedly “elbowing” players and that the game’s referee alleged that “Harris was out of control and was asked to leave the game and he refused and bumped the ref intentionally and refused to leave the game even after his team mates ask him to leave.”

The responding officer also “smelled alcohol on Harris’ breath and he was offered a PBT test and refused,” according to the report that also noted that, “Harris was sent on his way.” He was not arrested.

The police report is here.

The not so funny thing about the story is that a candidate was spending his time playing basketball just a few days before the election.

Dude, get a clue.

…Adding… State Senate candidate Bob Fioretti claims to be an adjunct professor at NIU’s law school. Um, no

Yet the NIU Law School faculty directory does not list Fioretti’s name.

Employment records provided by NIU in response to a Freedom of Information request show that Fioretti was hired to teach a class on State and Local Government for a four month period in the Spring of 2000. For this he was paid a $2,000 honorarium and reimbursed for travel expenses.

In other words, Fioretti taught a single class at NIU 16 years ago, and based on that is claiming that he “remains” a professor today.

* Related…

* Complaints filed against PAC backing Phillips

  22 Comments      


Question of the day

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Ask and ye shall receive…


  57 Comments      


Our sorry state

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Mark Brown

About 80,000 fewer children are being served by the state’s Child Care Assistance Program than in the previous year, according to the advocacy group Illinois Action for Children, which met here this week.

* David Glassman, the president of Eastern Illinois University, spoke to a Senate committee yesterday

And today, he said, will be the last day of work for 177 civil service employees at EIU.

“Of these 177 civil service employees, some are single parents, some are dealing with health issues, and in some cases the layoffs will affect both husband and wife in the same household,” Glassman said. “I wish to be clear that these positions are being eliminated not because they are unessential. We need them. And not because we are rightsizing the university. That already has been accomplished.

  22 Comments      


New CUB Poll: 84% Oppose Exelon Nuclear Bailout

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

Nearly 1,900 people responded to the recent Citizen’s Utility Board survey about Exelon’s push to bailout its nuclear plants.  Here is how CUB put it:

 

    “Exelon says keeping its nuclear plants open will fight climate change—and they need economic help. Opponents say Exelon just wants bigger profits.

     Should Illinois give unprofitable nuclear plants more money if it helps fight climate change?

     No: 1,583 (about 84 percent)

    Yes: 298 (about 16 percent)”

—————————————————

Illinois still has no budget, the state’s finances and services are in shambles, the social safety net is being decimated but Exelon STILL wants the Legislature to pass a huge BAILOUT.

Just say no to the Exelon Bailout.

www.noexelonbailout.com

BEST Coalition is a 501C4 nonprofit group of dozens of business, consumer and government groups, as well as large and small businesses. Visit www.noexelonbailout.com.

  Comments Off      


Illinois payroll revised upward by 73,800 jobs

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Greg Hinz

Newly released employment data undermines Gov. Bruce Rauner’s core argument in the state’s budget war: that Illinois’ economy is broken and requires major structural change in government.

The data suggest that while job growth here continues to lag the nation’s, it is considerably better than suggested in reports issued by Rauner’s Department of Employment Security and by the governor himself.

The figures indicate Illinois did not lose jobs in 2015, as IDES previously reported, but in fact gained nearly 50,000. And it suggests that Rauner’s claim in his recent State of the State speech—that “Jobs and people are leaving our state. . . .We have fewer jobs today than we had at the turn of this century”—probably is not true.

* Buried in the IDES press release…

Each year, the BLS benchmarks nonfarm payroll estimates to universal counts derived primarily from unemployment insurance tax reports. This year, revisions conducted revealed that nonfarm payrolls grew by +88,000 in 2014 rather than +66,800 and jobs grew by +49,600 in 2015 rather declining by -3,000. Private nonfarm payrolls regained their January 2008 peak levels in July 2015. However, the BLS’ revisions in nonfarm payroll employment show Illinois is still short -16,800 jobs in reaching the January 2008 peak employment level.

* Back to Hinz

In other words, Illinois actually gained 138,000 jobs over the past two years, up 2.3 percent. That’s a bit over half the national rate in the same period, and 2015 nationally was the best year in decades for job gains.

But 138,000 new jobs arguably is a lot better than Rauner suggested when he ran against then-Gov. Pat Quinn in 2014.

* But it wasn’t all semi-good news, as Progress Illinois reports

Illinois’ unemployment rate ticked up to 6.3 percent in January, while the state added a net 1,500 jobs, the Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) said Thursday.

The state’s jobless rate increased from 6.1 percent in December. There were 412,600 unemployed Illinoisans in January, a 3 percent increase from the previous month.

Illinois had a higher unemployment rate in January than the national figure of 4.9 percent. […]

“In January, the two industry sectors with the largest gains in employment were: Trade, Transportation and Utilities (+3,600) and Educational and Health Services (+3,200),” reads an IDES news release. “The three industry sectors with the largest declines in employment were: Government (-2,600); Other Services (-2,100); and Financial Activities (-1,700). “

…Adding… From the Illinois Policy Institute…

Hi Rich,

I noticed your blog post on the BLS jobs revisions. This happens every spring to change previous years.

Greg Hinz’s article has some inaccuracies in it. In particular:

    The figures indicate Illinois did not lose jobs in 2015, as IDES previously reported, but in fact gained nearly 50,000. And it suggests that Rauner’s claim in his recent State of the State speech—that “Jobs and people are leaving our state. . . .We have fewer jobs today than we had at the turn of this century”—probably is not true.

Hinz is incorrect about the “turn of the century.” The revised data is available right on IDES website here. Illinois still has fewer jobs than at the turn of the century by 33,100. There are also still 16,800 fewer jobs than before the recession began.

Something similar happened last year, when the revised data was released in the spring of 2015, it was better than initially reported in 2014.

Further, the speculation of Gov. Rauner manipulating the data is a little weird, especially in regards to how this revised data was released. In general, the source for all this data is federal BLS numbers. The numbers used in IDES’ releases are from BLS and published the exact same on BLS’ site. And in this case, BLS hasn’t even put out the revised numbers yet, so IDES is putting out the revisions ahead of BLS.

We will publish more thoroughly on this when BLS releases data for all states on Monday. As of now, BLS has not updated their site to reflect the revisions for Illinois or any other states.

Michael Lucci
Vice President of Policy

Illinois Policy Institute
Illinois Policy Action

Agreed on the data manipulation stuff. IDES was simply using federal numbers.

  53 Comments      


Garbage in, garbage out

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Illinois Policy Institute’s news service

Three of Gov. Bruce Rauner’s agenda items have traction with voters, at least according to polling data released Wednesday by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute. […]

    * 57 percent said they would vote for right-to-work or open-shop laws, while 4 percent said they leaned toward such laws. Thirty-three percent said they were opposed or leaning toward opposition. Seven 7 percent gave an answer of “undecided” or said they didn’t know.

“That one was really pretty surprising,” Jackson said. “This is not a state where you’d expect people to favor right-to-work by anywhere near that margin. I don’t know if it’s linked with Rauner’s having campaigned about this so much or what, but I do think it’s surprising.

“I’m not entirely sure what to make of it other than the possibility of Rauner’s having campaigned on it so hard for so long,” Jackson said.

Another possible factor, Jackson said: Union membership has declined in Illinois and in the nation. It is down nationally from a high of about 37 percent to about 12 percent.

“There are not as many union households to understand what unions mean and why unions would be vehemently opposed to (Illinois becoming) a right-to-work state,” Jackson said.

* From the Illinois Policy Institute’s radio news network

Better Government Association’s Andy Shaw told WMAY Springfield the finding calls into question Illinois’ status as a pro-union state.

“What you’re really hearing is people thinking that if (right-to-work) drives down the cost of government somewhat, it’s a good thing, because people feel their taxes are not being well enough spent,” Shaw said.

Meanwhile, Shaw said, there is another take on right-to-work: “Of course the other side says it’s a way of driving the wages and the lifestyle of the middle class down.”

When breaking that number down along party lines, 55 percent of Democrats, 69 percent of Republicans and 65 percent of independent voters say they lean toward right-to-work, according to the poll.

* OK, here’s the question asked by the Simon Institute…

Some states have passed right-to-work or open shop laws that say workers have the right to hold their jobs in a unionized workplace, whether they join the labor union or not. Would you vote for or against this proposal?

Ugh.

* I e-mailed David Yepsen at the Institute a couple of days ago to say I thought his poll question was bogus. He asked how I would’ve worded it and I replied…

How about something along the lines of receiving the full benefits of union membership without having to pay a dime for any of the union’s services?

Yepsen agreed.

This isn’t about some “right to freedom of association” it’s about a right to freeload. And it’s wrong.

Jackson and Shaw should’ve both known better.

…Adding… As pointed out in comments, this question merely affirms the current “fair share” system. You don’t have to join the union, but you still have to pay for the service. And that makes the Simon Institute question even more bogus.

  60 Comments      


$8.75 million spent/available in just two legislative primaries

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Whew…


* Stratton just received a big influx of cash from some of Rep. Dunkin’s House Democratic colleagues…


She also got $50K from Emanuel pal Michael Sacks.

* And IllinoisGO is still pumping cash…


…Adding… From Kent Redfield…

Hi Rich,

I keep trying to be retired and this stuff just sucks me back in.

Two points of reference

My quick back of the envelope figures using the same metrics as the Racing Form shows the State’s Attorneys race in Cook County at $5.33 million. I know it is three candidates, but the idea of spending as much or more on a primary in a house district as is being spent on a contested county-wide primary race in Cook County is beyond stunning.

Also it appears the most expensive legislative primary before this year was the H-26 Mitchell/Travis race from 2014 at around $1.2 million. (H-39 Berrios/Guzzardi and H-81 Sanddack/Matune in the same year were close to $1 million)

It is really hard to overstate how big money from individuals and independent expenditures have reshaped the political landscape since 2013.

Before my head explodes I am off to the driving range to work on something I kind of understand and maybe can fix - my slice.

I hope all is well with your health and you are still working hard on that new life style.

Take care, Kent

* In other campaign news, it appears that Rep. Mike Smiddy is not happy that Rep. Verschoore disclosed (or, according to Smiddy, lied about) their private converation because he just upped the ante…


More on this race below.

* Tweet of the week…


* Related…

* QC lawmakers spar over campaign contribution in 72nd Ill. House race: “He said ‘You’re probably not gonna be happy, but I got a call over the weekend to make a donation [to Mike Halpin].’ So, I asked him, I said ‘Did the call come from the Speaker?’ and he said ‘No.’ And I said ‘Did it come from Will Cousineau?’ and he said ‘Yes.’”

* Halpin TV ad partially financed by Rep. Smiddy

* @bobfioretti16 has a pair of new TV commercials running that feature Jesse Jackson

* Shimkus campaign spent $2500 at D.C. strip bar in 2005, watchdog group finds

* Rush’s campaign receives financial support from some of Emanuel’s closest political backers: A little more than a month after the news conference with Emanuel, Rush’s campaign cashed 24 checks, all on the same day — each the maximum allowed contribution of $2,700 and totaling $64,800. They came from Sacks, members of Sacks’ family, Sacks’ co-workers, friends and associates.

* Follow the money: Former 4th Ward Ald. Will Burns gave $25,000 to state Rep. Christian Mitchell, who has a rematch against Jay Travis in a Democratic primary for a Chicago House seat. That amount will buy a lot of promoted attack tweets against his challenger.

  18 Comments      


My eyes!!! They burn!!!

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Via our good friends at AlderTrack

  32 Comments      


Caption contest!

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Heh, on so many levels…


  28 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Seeing what they want to see

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* CBS 2

Just west of Midway Airport, in the bungalow belt dominated by Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, some Democrats are defecting to The Donald.

“Right here, I’m a Donald Trump voter,” says retired city plumber Tom Izzo.

“So many Americans are out of job, but we got all these illegals working here. Something’s got to happen,” he says.

Izzo represents a bit of a trend. In 2008, just 6 percent of Chicago primary voters selected Republican ballots. This year, it’s up to 10 percent. And that’s not far away from the 13 percent back in 1980, the year Ronald Reagan attracted so-called blue collar Reagan Democrats.

An example: Gene Krupa, who usually votes Democrat.

“We need change, and Obama didn’t give us the change we needed,” he says.

OK, the station used citywide numbers, but it didn’t look at results in Madigan’s 22nd House District.

So, let’s take a look for ourselves, shall we?

* By far, the district’s two largest wards are 13 and 23. So, since I’m a one-person shop, let’s just look at those two wards.

In 2008, 5 percent of 13th Ward voters cast Republican ballots and 8 percent of 23rd Ward voters did the same. (Dem results here.)

In 2012, 8 percent of 13th Ward voters took GOP ballots and 17 percent of 23rd Ward voters did the same. (Dem results here.)

So far this year, 5.45 percent of 13th Ward voters have requested GOP ballots during early voting, and 14.48 percent of 23rd Ward voters have done the same. Click here for the official election board spreadsheet.

*** UPDATE *** Will Caskey took a look at the ward numbers and wrote this on Facebook

VERY interesting Chicago early vote data courtesy of Rich Miller.

From the looks of it there are, so far, 8 wards with over twice the GOP vote share as citywide. This compares to 10 wards in 2012.

Additionally, the citywide R vote share in 2012 was 15 percent, as opposed to the current 8.73 percent.

In other words, There does NOT appear to be a surge in blue collar whites pulling Republican ballots instead of Democratic ones in Chicago. This is especially interesting as Trump tends to do the best with people who made up their minds earlier, then falls on Election Day.

So far these numbers would seem to favor Anita Alvarez in the Cook SA primary; even the heavily Republican 42nd Ward is producing a GOP vote share under 25 percent (it’s usually more like 40+%).

Basically the more white voters pull Democratic ballots, the better Alvarez should do.

So, the citywide trend appears to be (for now) exactly the opposite of what that CBS 2 report claims.

  23 Comments      


Watching for a surge

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I had a chat with Sangamon County Clerk Don Gray yesterday about early voting. I was wondering if he’d seen any hard evidence of Democrats taking Republican ballots. As we’ve discussed before, Sen. Sam McCann’s supporters are hoping to convince Democrats to help pull him through a tough GOP primary battle against a Rauner-backed (and now openly Rauner-funded) candidate.

Clerk Gray said he has seen some evidence. For instance, his office has looked at early voting in the downtown office by Democrats in 2014 and found that of 434 Democrats who took their party’s ballot that year, 39 have pulled GOP ballots so far this year.

That ain’t many actual votes, of course, but it’s still 9 percent.

Could those just be Trump voters and not necessarily Sam McCann voters? Nobody really knows.

* But something else is going on. As of yesterday afternoon, 1,888 Republican ballots had been pulled, compared to 1,849 two years ago and 1,511 in the last presidential primary four years ago.

And, so far, 1,244 Democratic early ballots have been requested, compared to 967 two years ago and 735 four years ago.

* OK, now let’s look at percent of total Dem/GOP early voting ballots cast for 2012-16…

2012 - Republican percent of total early votes cast: 67
2012 - Democratic percent of total early votes cast: 33

2014 - Republican percent of total early votes cast: 66
2014 - Democratic percent of total early votes cast: 34

2016 - Republican percent of total early votes cast, to date: 60
2016 - Democratic percent of total early votes cast, to date: 40

The Democrats’ percent of total has clearly spiked. On its face, that could very well argue against any surge for McCann.

Then again, we really don’t know and early voting isn’t finished yet.

  43 Comments      


Great Lakes Credit Union donates $39,000 to local communities

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

Great Lakes Credit Union (GLCU) takes pride in its many philanthropic initiatives to help build up the communities in which its members live. This year GLCU’s Board of Directors has adopted an extra special plan to give back even more. GLCU is proud to announce it is donating $39,000 in support of 13 organizations located within the communities of their branches throughout Lake, McHenry, Cook, DuPage, and Will counties in Illinois.

On January 29, 2016 GLCU presented a $3,000 check to the Open Arms Mission. The Open Arms Mission is a local food pantry whose mission is to provide daily living necessities while encouraging self-sufficiency for individuals and families in need.

Other organizations benefiting from this initiative include: Operation Support Our Troops in Naperville, Gurnee Explorers Unit, Coalition of Healthy Communities in Zion, ASCEND in Waukegan, Fat Cat Rescue, Inc. in North Chicago, Ronald McDonald House in Oak Lawn, McHenry County Community Foundation in Crystal Lake, Helping Paws Animal Shelter in Woodstock, United Way of Will County in Bolingbrook, Good Shepherd Center in Hazel Crest, Village of Willow Springs Veterans and Family Relief Fund, and B.E.S.T in Round Lake Beach.

  Comments Off      


*** UPDATED x1 - “Blatant lie” *** Madigan claims Gonzales workers arrested for allegedly trying to force open a woman’s door

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I’ve been hearing that the Madigan folks have been warning voters in the 22nd House District that the Speaker’s Democratic primary opponent has hired thugs to walk precincts and are advising folks to not open their doors. Now comes this…

State Representative Michael Madigan’s spokesperson Steve Brown issued the following statement Friday regarding a police report filed Thursday evening involving workers for the campaign of Jason Gonzales:

“Jason Gonzales has gone to great lengths to tell voters how much he’s changed after it was revealed that he pleaded guilty to numerous crimes of deception and dishonesty. But it would appear that his disrespect for the law is being followed by his own campaign.

“Last night, we learned that two of Gonzales’ campaign workers were arrested by 8th District police officers after they allegedly attempted to use force to open the door of a local woman’s house.

“Throughout this campaign, Michael Madigan has spoken about the differences between him and Jason Gonzales and issues impacting local neighborhoods, including how Madigan will continue to work for middle-class families and stand up against dangerous right-wing agendas. There has also been an effort to inform voters about Gonzales’ deceitful and dishonest past. Voters have a right to know how Jason Gonzales’ history of deceit and dishonesty could negatively impact them and the representation they receive in the State Capitol, and they should know that historical behavior appears to be carried on by his campaign.”

…Adding… From last night on the Garfield Ridge Neighborhood Watch Facebook page

This evening, CPD arrested 2 African American males on 60th and Parkside for attempted burglary. They were passing out flyers for the Gonzalez campaign, and while knocking on doors in Clearing, they tried forcing their way in to a home. The homeowner was inside at the time and called police. The 2 offenders are in custody.

*** UPDATE *** From the Gonzales campaign…

“The notion that any of our campaign workers were arrested is a blatant lie from the Madigan campaign. No Gonzales campaign workers have been arrested or even talked to by the police,” said Ben Gould, Campaign Manager for Jason Gonzales.

I was also told that “none of our canvassers yesterday fit the description of the those who were apprehended.”

The campaign also says that their canvassers weren’t in that neighborhood last night.

  61 Comments      


Unclear on the concept

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A Democratic ward organization’s sample ballot is not an official government ballot, ya amateur goofballs.

* Sorry Madigoons (and I use that term with great affection), but I kinda doubt that chatting with a voter outside a polling place is the worst thing happening in that district right now…


* Student leaders used to proclaim: “Don’t mourn. Organize!” Now they openly worry about people being “triggered” by a candidate

The email from the UIC student government relayed safety contacts for students who felt threatened or think they need a police escort around campus. At the same time, it urged students to behave respectfully.

“Our hope is that all students will demonstrate peacefully, display class, and remain safe during this highly contentious event,” the email read. “Furthermore, if students are offended or triggered by statements made by Donald Trump or his campaign, we would recommend you to use any of our vast support networks. If you are put into a dangerous or life-threatening situation we have listed numbers you may call in order to best assist you.”

If you’re offended by a politician, don’t faint. Walk a precinct! Get yourself to a candidate call center (well, maybe not this one)! Pick up a picket sign!

You’ll feel so much better. I promise!

  48 Comments      


Today’s number: $1 million

Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a St. Louis American article last summer about Bob Romanik, “The Grim Reaper of Radio”

Whether he’s talking about “plantation negro” leadership in East St. Louis or the so-called white elite “bottom feeders,” as he likes to refer to St. Clair County bigwigs, Romanik takes no prisoners.

He’s an ex-East St. Louis and Washington Park cop who often refers to himself as “poor white trash” from the Roosevelt Homes housing projects of ESL and makes no apologies for refusing to snitch on his friends – which, in part, led to his serving a 20-month sentence in the U.S penitentiary in Leavenworth, Kansas.

Since that time, the former strip club mogul’s new toy is his radio empire. He owns a number of stations that focus on everything from golden oldies to country, sports and talk.

But nothing seems to make his day more than lampooning and humiliating local politicians, with nicknames like state Sen. James “Foghorn” Clayborne, “God” Sprague and Judge John “Red on the noodle like a [expletive deleted] on a poodle” Baricevic.

Lately, though, Romanik has gained the attention of local media with his billboards in the Belleville community, which comically lambast St. Clair County Board Chairman Mark Kern.

His current billboard pictures Kern in a bikini with the caption “Mark ‘Sweetcakes’ Kern should have been a stripper. He’s already stripped us of our tax dollars!”

* We’ve already discussed Romanik. He’s running as a Republican in the East St. Louis-based 114th House District race against Democrat LaToya Greenwood.

Back in January, Romanik stunned some political observers by putting $125,000 of his own money into his campaign account.

Yesterday, Romanik upped the ante by loaning a million dollars to his campaign committee.

* When the Democrats redrew the district maps, the ESL-area district wound up being just 42 percent African-American.

And former Gov. Pat Quinn just barely won the 114th in 2014, 48.3 to 47.6 for Bruce Rauner.

* In other words, you can’t totally count this guy out. Not with that kind of money and reach.

  34 Comments      


Asked and answered

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the twitters…



  38 Comments      


Ferro talks about the Dave McKinney incident

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Michael Ferro, who has taken over the Tribune and used to be the largest shareholder of the Sun-Times, told the Trib that he does not get involved in editorial decisions. “That’s not my gig”

One incident in particular led to a public discussion as to whether Ferro’s influence crossed over into editorial decisions at the Sun-Times. It began with an unflattering October 2014 article by political reporter Dave McKinney about then-Republican gubernatorial candidate Rauner, an original Wrapports investor who sold his 10 percent stake back to Ferro before entering the race.

The Rauner campaign raised concerns with the Sun-Times that McKinney’s marriage to Democratic political strategist Ann Liston represented an “extraordinary” conflict of interest.

McKinney said he was placed on leave two days after his Rauner story ran. He resigned two weeks later, suggesting at the time he was taken off his beat by Ferro in retaliation for the story.

Ferro said he had nothing to do with that decision.

“By the time it came to me, they just wanted to tell me what was going on,” Ferro said. “The only advice I gave them was to do the right thing. … This is a funny thing about journalists. They don’t like being questioned about their honor, but they question everybody’s honor every day.”

Hmm. All he said was “Do the right thing”? OK, but I doubt he needed to give them a road map to arrive at Ferro’s preferred “right thing” destination in that case.

  18 Comments      


New CUB Poll: 84% Oppose Exelon Nuclear Bailout

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

Nearly 1,900 people responded to the recent Citizen’s Utility Board survey about Exelon’s push to bailout its nuclear plants.  Here is how CUB put it:

 

    “Exelon says keeping its nuclear plants open will fight climate change—and they need economic help. Opponents say Exelon just wants bigger profits.

     Should Illinois give unprofitable nuclear plants more money if it helps fight climate change?

     No: 1,583 (about 84 percent)

    Yes: 298 (about 16 percent)”

—————————————————

Illinois still has no budget, the state’s finances and services are in shambles, the social safety net is being decimated but Exelon STILL wants the Legislature to pass a huge BAILOUT.

Just say no to the Exelon Bailout.

www.noexelonbailout.com

BEST Coalition is a 501C4 nonprofit group of dozens of business, consumer and government groups, as well as large and small businesses. Visit www.noexelonbailout.com.

  Comments Off      


Illinois Chamber denies attacking Emanuel in Dunkin ad that… attacks Emanuel

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Greg Hinz also got a copy of the new Illinois Chamber ad on behalf of Rep. Ken Dunkin


* Script…

The secret about candidate Juliana Stratton? Stratton is really a puppet, a pet for Rahm Emanuel and the politicians who abuse our community. They won’t pass a budget, they eliminate home care for seniors and child care for working parents.

Ken Dunkin’s the stronger choice. Dunkin doesn’t work for Rahm, he works for the people. Dunkin wrote the plan to shut down red light and speed cameras. Dunkin took on Republicans to restore child care. Dunkin gets tough for us.

That ad is just chock full of truthiness.

* Anyway, on to Greg’s story

State chamber chief Todd Maisch defends the spot, saying Dunkin “has demonstrated he is more attuned to job-creation issues than a lot of other members” and has been helpful to the chamber on more than one occasion. Undermining the speaker’s power certain would qualify on that score, too.

I guess he woulda been helpful on “more than one occasion” because he has a 47 percent rating from the Chamber. But do you think anyone else would get a million bucks from the Chamber with a voting record like that?

* So, why attack the mayor?

“I would disagree we were going after him,” Maisch replied. “We’re very supportive of some of his programs as mayor.”

Um, OK.

* Hinz also talked to Greg Goldner, who runs Illinois GO, which paid for the ad, then writes

I’d sure like to be there the next time Goldner asks for a favor from City Hall. “His influence is gone,” says one insider. Or for that matter, the next time the state chamber wants Chicago help on one of its bills. Says a top Emanuel hand, “The chamber now has zero influence on Democrats. They’ve dropped any semblance of being anything except a Rauner puppet.”

My, my. Sure looks like they’re making progress on a Springfield budget deal, no?

No.

  23 Comments      


Question of the day

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The setup…


* The Question: If that does occur, what else will happen within 48 hours?

Snark is heavily encouraged, of course.

  93 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Smiddy: “Not true” *** “I had to do it for my future”

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Speaker Madigan isn’t making a whole lot of new pals in the Quad Cities these days. I’ve already told you about what he’s doing to House candidate Katelyn Hotle, but check this out…

Statement from Citizens for Jeff Jacobs on Halpin TV Attacks

Yesterday, March 9, 2016 the Illinois State Board of Elections reported a contribution of $75,000 to the Mike Halpin campaign from State Representative Mike Smiddy. Until this past weekend, Representative Smiddy had professed to be neutral on this campaign.

On Monday, March 7, 2016, Smiddy called Representative Pat Verschoore to tell him Madigan’s staff had called and pressured him heavily to contribute money to the Halpin campaign immediately. He apologized to Representative Verschoore for his call but said “I had to do it for my future.” This clearly shows that Speaker Madigan’s promise of neutrality to Rep Pat Verschoore was untrue.

The money is being spent to continue funding baseless and untrue claims by Mike Halpin against Jeff Jacobs. For over five weeks now, Halpin has been attacking Jacobs with these untrue claims to confuse voters. “This is the kind of politics that creates deadlocks and prevents us from getting things done for the people of Illinois in Springfield,” said Jeff Jacobs. The Halpin campaign has trailed Jacobs in various polls for the duration of the campaign. The money from Smiddy is clearly intended to smear Jacobs with untruths in the final days through heavy TV, personal phone calls to voters and direct mail

“Our campaign from day one has been about positive ways to grow our Middle Class through good paying jobs in our communities while working together here and in Springfield to build, not destroy,” said Jacobs.

Verschoore has backed his nephew Jacobs from the get-go. Madigan has claimed time and time again that he’s neutral. But, just like the Dunkin race, it’s not very believable. And just like the Dunkin race, we now have some evidence that he didn’t tell the truth here, either.

I tried e-mailing, calling and texting Rep. Smiddy. If he ever responds, I’ll post it in full.

*** UPDATE *** Rep. Smiddy’s response…

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* Meanwhile, speaking of Hotle, she has one of the better homemade social media ads I’ve seen in a while



We Are Difference Makers

Together we can make a difference. Vote Hotle on March 15th.

Posted by Katelyn Hotle on Tuesday, March 8, 2016

A few more bucks for production and lots more dollars to put it on TV and that might’ve made a difference.

* Hotle, by the way, was endorsed this week by the Moline Dispatch

Leading the money race in the four-way battle for the Democrats is a pair of lawyers who have split local party and labor backing: Mike Halpin and Jeff Jacobs.

By contrast, Rock Island Ald. Kate Hotle and Glen Evans, are outside looking in on the money race, though Ald. Hotle has felt its bite as the target of attack mailers paid for by Speaker Madigan. We urge voters to reject specious claims, including that she is a Rauner plant, and to focus on the facts. The only elected official in the field, Ms. Hotle is a hard working alderman not afraid to make the tough decisions. She could be the independent voice in Springfield some crave. She also promises a “better style of politics” our state needs.

  13 Comments      


Something that works?

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From 47th Ward Democratic Committeeman Paul Rosenfeld…

Hi Rich,

I thought I would let you know what we’re doing in the 47th ward. This is my first election as Committeeman, I’m unopposed, and we have no local races at all- except one judicial race. I still want to have a high turnout and I want to do well for our slate of endorsed candidates (i.e. Kim Foxx), so we created an entire voter mobilization campaign around our neighborhood public schools.

Last week, we put up 100’s of yard signs that say “We vote because of______ school”, a piece of mail hit with the same message (our local elected’s are all holding the sign) and our volunteers hit the doors saying “Rauner and the Republicans want to ruin CPS which will ruin our property values…”.

The result was last weekend we had the highest early vote total of any ward (the 13th Ward was second highest). Currently, the 47th Ward is 29th in weighted vote in Chicago based on last primary vote turnout. Today, we are in the top 5 in early vote/absentee voting.

I attached all our material. Thanks,

Paul Rosenfeld

* Here’s Paul’s material…

* Palm card

* Mailer

* Door hanger

* Newsletter

  18 Comments      


Our sorry state

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Joliet Herald-News

The Joliet Region Chamber of Commerce & Industry has sent a letter to Gov. Bruce Rauner and legislators saying economic and social progress made in the Joliet area is being “wiped away” by the actions of state leaders.

The letter which outlines cuts being made by local social service agencies, argues that the business climate in Illinois is being ruined by the state budget crisis and suggests the fault lies with the state’s political leaders.

“Partisan opposition and tactical maneuvering are not new elements to the political landscape in Illinois or in the nation,” the letter reads. “So this begets the question, are the issues Illinois is presently facing any more complex than those of the past, or is the current roster of political participants simply not up to the task?”

Good question.

* Comptroller Leslie Munger was in Joliet this week

Imagine, if you would, Munger said: $7,000 in bills on the kitchen table, $2,000 in bills in the mail, $110,000 in credit card debt and $100 in your bank account for daily spending.

Illinois is grappling with that same ratio, she said, but tack on six additional zeroes at the end of those figures.

“That’s no way to run a state,” she said.

I assume that $110,000 she refers to is pension debt, so it’s more like a long-term mortgage than credit cards, but it’s not a bad analogy otherwise. People in situations like that often have to get another job, by the way. It’s what my parents did when I was a kid. Bankruptcy was not an acceptable option (and it’s not possible with the state). They economized away luxuries and extras, but they needed more revenue to keep the kids fed and housed and the car running.

* On to the Illinois Observer

Illinois African-American lawmakers came out swinging against Governor Bruce Rauner on Wednesday over a jobs training program crippled by the Illinois budget impasse.

State Senator Emil Jones III (D-Chicago), chairman of the Senate Black Caucus, complained yesterday that without a budget the Transportation Construction Apprenticeship Readiness Training (TCART) program, which provides minorities, disadvantaged people and women with access and training to work in the highway construction trades is no longer functioning.

“The governor’s political battle over his turnaround agenda is killing jobs and opportunities for young black males in communities across the state,” Jones said. “I just find it particularly interesting that the governor is willing to let successful job programs suffer, but cut deals to find funding for downstate prisons.”

According to Jones, as of May 15, 2015, the TCART program had generated 340 jobs for African Americans, women and the disadvantaged. The average hourly wage for participants is nearly $17 per hour, with more than 41 percent of those hired earning between $16 and $43 per hour.

State Rep. Marcus Evans (D-Chicago) cited the governor’s Illinois “turnaround” theme to argue for the jobs training program.

“I believe government should be focused on trying to solve programs,” Evans said. “Bringing more income into the state through business growth and developing neighborhoods is the key to sustainable results. This governor talks about turning this state around – this program takes us in the direction of doing just that.”

Gov. Rauner made a very big deal last year out of helping minorities move into construction trades.

  32 Comments      


Davis, LaHood endorse Benton, AFSCME urges members to vote McCann

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 50th Senate District candidate Bryce Benton was endorsed by two more area congresscritters today…

US Rep. Rodney Davis

“I’ve known Bryce for over a decade and am proud to call him a friend. We both grew up in Taylorville and share the same small town values – hard work, honesty and accountability. I know Bryce will serve us with the same dedication and integrity that he’s brought to his career in law enforcement. I am proud to endorse Bryce Benton for State Senate because he’ll make sure our children will inherit a better, stronger Illinois.”

US Rep. Darin LaHood

“When you think about Central Illinois and the 50th Senate district – its people who work hard, play by the rules, have a strong faith in God, love their community and are frustrated with state government. Bryce epitomizes those values. He has served us honorably as a law enforcement officer, and will serve voters well in the State Senate. I endorse Bryce Benton for State Senate because he’s one of us, and will serve us with integrity and pride.”

* Meanwhile, a blast e-mail isn’t gonna do much, obviously, but AFSCME has been trying to convince its members to take GOP ballots and vote for McCann. I’m not sure it’ll work, particularly after what happened in Michigan this week. Democrats may now take D ballots to vote for their favorite presidential candidate…

$2.5 million! That’s how much Bruce Rauner’s cronies have spent to defeat Senator Sam McCann—all because Sam dared to defy Rauner and stand up for the people of his district.

Sam McCann stood with state employees to support SB 1229 and HB 580, legislation to ensure a fair contract settlement. He stood with senior citizens in voting against cuts to pension benefits and retiree health care. He stood up for public employees everywhere who deserve fair treatment.

That’s why AFSCME, Illinois Education Association, FOP, Police Benevolent, Firefighters and dozens of other unions are all supporting Sam McCann for State Senator.

Sam put his whole political career on the line to stand with us. Now he’s counting on us to stand with him on Election Day.

Even if you’ve never voted before—or never voted in a Republican primary before—now is the time to take a Republican ballot and cast your vote for Sam McCann.

And please don’t vote alone—when you go to your polling place, bring your spouse, your brother, your sister, your neighbor. Encourage everyone you know to cast their vote for Sam McCann.

Vote early! Early voting is now underway at a polling place near you. Most early voting locations are open all day Saturday. Click here to find the polling place nearest you for early voting.

Or vote on Tuesday, March 15 at your local polling place any time from 6AM to 7 PM.

If you don’t vote, Bruce Rauner and his big-money pals win. If we all vote together, we can send a powerful message that we will stand with those who stand with us.

With less than a week to go, let’s go all-in to reelect Sam McCann.

In Unity,

Roberta Lynch
Executive Director

  37 Comments      


Illinois Credit Unions: Giving Back to Our Communities

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

Credit unions exist to help people, not make a profit. It is this motto of ‘People Helping People’ that sets credit unions apart. Credit unions exist as member owned, not-for- profit financial institutions that have a strong sense of community. Historically, credit unions have championed the cause of supporting underserved communities. In its 36 years of service, the Illinois Credit Union Foundation has awarded more than $3.5 million in scholarships, community service grants, assistance to peer assistance programs, emergencies and natural disaster efforts, and community involvement projects. If you are not yet a credit union member, go to ASmarterChoice.org to discover of all the advantages that membership holds.

Help to strengthen our communities from the inside out by becoming a credit union member today!

  Comments Off      


Late oppo in 22nd Senate District

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* These late hits don’t work as well as they used to, partly because of early voting and partly because people just don’t believe them. But it’s getting some play in Elgin.

However, there may be valid explanations for maybe some of this stuff

State Senate candidate Steve Caramelli has been suspended several times during his 10-year career as an Illinois state trooper, according to police files obtained via an open records request.

Documented infractions include pornography found on his work computer, pulling his weapon on a hospital valet and chasing a fleeing motorcyclist who fatally crashed, according to records released by the Illinois State Police.

Caramelli, a Hanover Township trustee and Democratic committeeman in Tuesday’s primary against Cristina Castro for the 22nd District seat being vacated by Sen. Mike Noland, has been disciplined at least seven times for incidents since 2007, according to state police records.

The 39-year-old Hoffman Estates resident said he was at one point part of the motorcycle enforcement bureau, a “very targeted unit” that focused on DUI, seat belt, speeding, improper lane usage and reckless driving violations.

“When you’re doing 26 stops a day and you’re writing over 50 tickets, you’re going to come across people who are unhappy,” he said. Caramelli said troopers had quotas and “had to produce volume” in the unit.

Go read the whole thing. This story has the feel of an oppo report plant, but whatevs. It’s gonna leave a mark either way. The question is how deep of a mark it’ll be.

* The race has recently turned ugly…

Neither side has much money, however. Ergo, the apparent oppo plant.

  16 Comments      


War of words continues

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* BR (Before Rauner) this sort of hostile language against a chamber’s leader would get a staffer fired. We obviously no longer live in BR…


Whew.

* But Sen. Kwame Raoul did go off on the Prince of Snarkness yesterday in committee

Oof.

…Adding… Sen. Raoul was apparently responding to Goldberg’s statement about how the last time he appeared before the committee the Senate Democrats were holding “sham” hearings to end negotiations and vote down the Governor’s proposals. Goldberg’s “YouTube” comment refers back to one of those hearings where Raoul again lost his temper. Click here.

* Goldberg said this yesterday at the hearing regarding the pension reform plan

“We will support any language that the Senate President puts forward”

He qualified it by adding something about if the bill saves money. But, still. That’s a pretty broad invitation for Democratic poison pills.

Any suggestions?

* While we’re somewhat on this topic, here’s a letter from the governor’s education czar…

Dear Superintendents,

Yesterday a letter addressed to me was sent to you by Senate President Cullerton regarding funding Illinois PK-12 schools. Luckily, the letter was also printed in Capitol Fax, so I also had a chance to read it.

To reiterate, Governor Rauner’s proposed budget has three primary goals:

    1. End proration of the current funding formula, which disproportionately affects low-income students.
    2. Increase early childhood funding by $75,000,000 in order to increase the number of full-day preschool seats available statewide and to ensure continued operation of the current programs.
    3. Continue to fund Safe and Alternative Schools.

If passed by the General Assembly, Governor Rauner will sign the bill immediately into law, thereby allowing you to begin planning for 2016-2017 school year.

The Governor agrees and has stated repeatedly that the current funding formula is inadequate. Illinois is last in state support for local education and has some of the largest funding disparities in the country on a district-by-district basis. We believe that more money is needed to support our children, especially those who live in poverty. We have pledged to continue to work with supporters of reform to determine how to create a funding formula that better meets the needs of all children.

Given the history of formula change efforts during times of one-party control, such a compromise will likely not be reached quickly in the current climate. President Cullerton and other Democratic lawmakers did not threaten to hold up school funding last year or years prior — only now that Governor Rauner has been in office for one year. During this first year, the Governor has proposed record funding for PK-12 schools in two consecutive budgets and is hoping to end proration for the first time since 2009. Again, I urge you to support his proposal so that schools open on time in the fall while we continue to work together toward bipartisan funding formula reform.

Sincerely,

Beth Purvis
Secretary of Education

Thanks for the free advertising, Beth, but the governor still has to explain how he can support a funding plan that appears to slash Chicago Public Schools by $78 million. C’mon.

  80 Comments      


“We have no involvement in that race”

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Umm

On Thursday afternoon, Madigan spokesman Steve Brown was asked about the Dunkin-Stratton contest and what role the speaker played in getting the Obama endorsement. “We have no involvement in that race,” Brown said.

A half-hour later, a delivery van pulled up to Madigan’s Southwest Side 13th Ward office and two men unloaded hundreds of blue-and-white yard signs with the message “President Barack Obama endorses Juliana Stratton.”

The driver must’ve had the wrong address. It’s all just a simple mistake, because Madigan would never tell a falsehood, right?

/snark

  67 Comments      


More trouble for McCann

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The SJ-R surprised quite a few people last night by endorsing Sen. Sam McCann’s Republican primary opponent

Going beyond the arbitration vote, we remain deeply troubled by the pattern of incidents involving Sen. McCann that have dogged him for multiple election cycles.

There is confusion about whether McCann has exaggerated or lied about being in the U.S. Marines, a controversy that dates back to his 2010 campaigns and prompted a recent public rebuke from two of Illinois’ congressmen, John Shimkus and Adam Kinzinger, both veterans.

McCann’s construction businesses have been embroiled in liens for alleged tax delinquencies dating back to 2010; McCann has said the government is mistaken and blamed problems with his paperwork filings. He also has faced lawsuits for alleged nonpayment of credit card debt, although three of them were ultimately dismissed. A recent one is pending.

More recently, McCann took more than $38,000 in mileage reimbursements from his campaign fund in the last year. At the federal reimbursement of 57.5 cents per mile, that would mean McCann drove more than 66,000 miles on campaign business last year alone. And that doesn’t count an additional $19,600 in mileage reimbursements from the state since 2011. McCann says he drove those miles to cover his sprawling district, but also admits that “bookkeeping is not one of my strengths.”

These are not isolated blips, but rather an ongoing series of issues. Although the anti-McCann ads have had distortions or overstatements, the liens, mileage questions and other issues should raise serious concerns for voters about McCann’s judgement.

Benton brings a positivity that offers a chance for enthusiasm and change outcomes. Despite his inexperience, he earns the edge for our endorsement.

All good points. It’s amazing to me that he didn’t do more to clear this up before waging battle with the Death Star.

This district, like some other Downstate areas, is very sensitive to “earned media.” Oftentimes, what’s published in newspapers and appears on the TV news is just as or even more important than the ads, which is one difference between TV markets like this one and the Chicago metro area. It’s not that people are more literate or pay more attention, it’s just that legislators are on the TV and radio and are regularly in the papers, so more people tend to know who they are.

* And the SJ-R has published yet another story which is harmful to McCann’s prospects

State Sen. Sam McCann’s campaign finance committee should be ordered to file amended reports to give specifics on what was purchased for $46,000 in “grouped expenditures” listed, a State Board of Elections hearing officer says.

The hearing officer, board campaign disclosure specialist John Levin, also recommended that there be a public hearing on McCann’s mileage reimbursements from the campaign. The campaign paid McCann more than $38,000 for mileage in April through December of 2015.

The elections board meets Monday – the day before the primary in which McCann, of Plainview, faces a challenge from fellow Republican Bryce Benton of Springfield in the 50th Senate District. […]

“(W)ithout speaking to whether there is sufficient evidence pointing to unwarranted levels of mileage reimbursement … there are enough unanswered questions to support a recommendation that this portion of the complaint move to a public hearing,” Levin wrote. “I therefore recommend the complaint be found to have been filed on justifiable grounds, and that the matter proceed to a public hearing.”

* Related documents…

* Initial complaint

* Preliminary hearing transcript

* Hearing officer report

  45 Comments      


No postseason tournaments for Saluki men’s basketball

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As I told you yesterday, SIU’s president will lay out some major budget cutting proposals today. More info and context is here and here.

Meanwhile

The fate of Southern Illinois basketball postseason has been up in the air over the state’s budget impasse, and the picture got cleared up Wednesday.

Saluki men’s basketball will not participate in a postseason tournament this season, according to a Saluki Athletics press release.

Coach Barry Hinson said there was not one single factor that led to this conclusion.

“We carefully considered a host of factors before reaching the decision to end our season,” he said. “Chief among them were the health and welfare of our players, as well as the budgetary implications of hosting games on our campus during spring break.”

After the team’s Missouri Valley Conference tournament loss to Northern Iowa, Hinson said his team would not pay to play in a postseason tournament “as people are getting ready to lose their jobs.”

  57 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Dunkin had 47 percent Chamber rating *** Chamber spends almost a million dollars on Dunkin TV ad

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Subscribers were told about this buy earlier today and they have details about the ad itself. What I didn’t know at the time was that the money came from IllinoisGO…



*** UPDATE *** Wordslinger in comments…

That’s strange — Dunkin is one of the lowest-rated GA members on the chamber’s last scorecard.

I wonder what changed their mind? When’s the Blue Room rollout of the spot so “Hang in There” Todd can give the skinny to media and members statewide as to the importance of Ken Dunkin?

I’m sure all those members statewide who are owed millions by the state for goods and services already rendered want to see the spot and learn all about Dunkin.

I make a $975,000 contribution minus a $960,000 ad buy nets the chamber $15,000 for selling its name.

It’s like the punchline to the old joke — we’ve already established what you are, now we’re just talking price.

Rep. Dunkin voted with the Chamber just 47 percent of the time in the 2013-14 legislative session, the only rating posted on the group’s website.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* Meanwhile…


* Related…

* Rauner, Madigan proxy war plays out in Chicago House race

  58 Comments      


*** LIVE *** Session coverage

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive


  1 Comment      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

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  Comments Off      


Caption contest!

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Chew on this partial mailer while I upload ads and mailers for subscribers…

And while I know it will be difficult, please abide by this blog’s commenting rules which forbid violent imagery. You don’t wanna get banned for this guy.

  95 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Thursday, Mar 10, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

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* Hexaware: Your Globally Local IT Services Partner
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* Hexaware: Your Globally Local IT Services Partner
* Pritzker to meet with Texas Dems as Trump urges GOP remaps (Updated)
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