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Reader comments closed for the weekend

Friday, Oct 23, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Have a great one

Is it really punk rock, like the party line?

  Comments Off      


*** UPDATED x5 - Garrett “extremely pleased,” but leaders should have input on agenda - Madigan will wait for details - Radogno, Durkin, Cullerton accept *** Rauner accepts leaders meeting offer, but in his office

Friday, Oct 23, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the governor’s office…

October 23, 2015

Dear Speaker Madigan, President Cullerton, Leader Durkin and Leader Radogno:

Next week we will complete an unprecedented fourth month without a state budget. Over four months, it’s become clear that there are not enough votes to pass a tax increase in the General Assembly without also enacting much-needed structural reforms. In order to solve this budget impasse, we must come together to agree on a package of structural reforms that can save taxpayers billions alongside a balanced budget.

Over the last few weeks, I’ve met with each of you individually to try to move beyond this impasse. I believe it’s time for all of us to meet as a group, and thanks to the invitation of a few advocacy groups, I understand everyone has availability on Wednesday, November 18 from 9:30 AM to Noon and is interested in a public meeting. This is excellent news.

As you know, Leaders Meetings are held and conducted by the governor’s office. As such, while we appreciate the advocacy groups desire to be involved, we will pick up the organization of the meeting from here.

We are happy to host the meeting in the governor’s office in either Springfield or Chicago and will coordinate with your office on the most appropriate media access (fully open, pooled press, streamed online, etc.). We will also circulate an agenda in advance of the meeting. My chief of staff will reach out to your chief of staff to finalize scheduling and logistics.

Thank you for your commitment to solving this impasse. I look forward to seeing you all soon and on November 18.

Sincerely,

Bruce Rauner
Governor, State of Illinois

Background is here.

*** UPDATE 1 *** From Senate President Cullerton’s spokesperson…

Anytime, anywhere.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Leader Jim Durkin…

“I accept the Governor’s invitation and look forward to a productive meeting.”

*** UPDATE 3 *** House Speaker Michael Madigan’s spokesman just said that his boss wants to wait and see what the governor’s office actually sends to the chiefs of staff, by way of an agenda, etc.

*** UPDATE 4 *** Senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno…

“I am available to attend the leaders meeting called by the governor on November 18th in either Springfield or Chicago.”

*** UPDATE 5 *** The Illinois Campaign for Political Reform’s chairperson, former state Sen. Susan Garrett, just told me…

“We are extremely pleased that so much progress has been made in such a short period of time.

“Hopefully, moving forward, the agenda will receive input from the leaders so it’s an agreed upon agenda.”

That suggestion makes sense.

Hopefully, the governor doesn’t demand a 100 percent “Turnaround Agenda” discussion or this could very well fall apart.

Either way, congrats to Garrett and the other good government leaders. I was pretty skeptical that this would work when we initially discussed it here.

  96 Comments      


Meh

Friday, Oct 23, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Several people have sent me the video clip, but I haven’t been able to get all that excited about a guy who won some Lottery money and is now whining because he hasn’t been paid and is actually suing. Get in line, pal. Plus, I didn’t think the segment was all that funny.

But, it’s easier to understand than the lack of childcare funding, or cuts to meals on wheels or MAP grants or whatever, and, as Jim Edgar said the other day it’s the little things that do you in, so it’s a national story

Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show with Trevor Noah” brought its comedic look at the news to Illinois with a feature on state government’s inability to pay lottery winners.

“Daily Show” correspondent Jordan Klepper and a camera crew traveled to Oglesby in north-central Illinois earlier this month to meet with Danny Chasteen and Susan Rick, who won $250,000 in the lottery but haven’t been paid.

The Illinois Lottery has delayed payments for all winnings exceeding $600.

As part of the comedic segment, which aired Wednesday night, Klepper hauled an oversized $250,000 check into Gov. Bruce Rauner’s office at the James R. Thompson Center in Chicago in hopes of getting Rauner to sign it. Rauner wasn’t there.

The segment is here.

  26 Comments      


Today’s good deed

Friday, Oct 23, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The governor’s legal team and the General Counsel for IDVA will be providing free legal consultations on health care powers of attorney at this event tomorrow…

Warrior Summit Coalition, City of Chicago, and Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs (“IDVA”), and US Department of Veterans Affairs will host its’ 7th Welcome Home Warrior Summit on October 24, 2015. The Summit features a wide range of businesses, community-based organizations, and government entities to influence economic self-sufficiency within the veteran community. This full-day event provides veterans and others with an opportunity for practical education and advice in the areas of Veterans Affairs (VA) benefits, education, employment, housing, legal, family services, mental health, and faith based services. Warrior Summit Coalition offers the program free of charge to veterans, and the general public who may attend on behalf of a military relative.

The 2015 Welcome Home Warrior Summit at The UIC Pavilion continues a legacy of supporting veterans as they continue to access resources during and after military service. The 2015 featured services and workshops will include, but are not limited to:

    • Onsite registration for healthcare through the US Department of Veterans Affairs
    • Onsite Registration for CEDA Gas, energy, light bill assistance (eligibility form attached)
    • Onsite Registration for CEDA Home Weatherization Services
    • On-site Registration for Veteran State ID, and Veteran Driver’s License
    • VA Home Loan for Home Or Condominium Ownership Workshops
    • Financial Accountability and Empowerment Workshops
    • Entrepreneurship, Starting / Growing Your Own Business Workshops
    • Free Business Suits for Male and Female Job Seekers

This post reminds me that the House’s chief doorkeeper Lee Crawford runs a charity that, in part, provides free business suits for job seekers. I’ve shrunk by many pounds over the past year or so, and he’s getting all of my Statehouse clothes which no longer fit. Maybe I can finally get that done this weekend.

Have you done any charity work lately?

  27 Comments      


“Don’t count on it”

Friday, Oct 23, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Lisa Hammer

Black Hawk College president Bettie Truitt was among several college presidents who met with Governor Bruce Rauner on Thursday.

Dr. Truitt told the college’s board of trustees Thursday night that the governor spoke about his “turnaround agenda” for 15 or 20 minutes before asking for their input. She said she had made the point that in terms of the best taxpayer value for the buck, MAP grants given to community colleges are ideal. She noted the average MAP grant at a community college is $942, whereas the average MAP award at a four-year college is far more.

She said the governor was cautiously optimistic there would be a budget passed in January when not a supermajority but just a simple majority vote is needed.

Black Hawk receives $7.2 million from the state each year, which is 22 percent of the college’s total revenue. So far since July 1, the college hasn’t received anything. She said she asked the governor if a budget is passed, would the state receive funds retroactive to July 1?

“’His response was, ‘Don’t count on it,’” she said.

* And speaking of January, our commenter “Juvenal” wrote something today worth front paging

Democrats and Republicans don’t like to raise taxes, and Democrats and Republicans don’t like to cut either.

The false partisan dichotomy when it comes to budget-making is one of the underlying problems in public policy analysis that has led to the failed GOP strategy.

Madigan understands that Republicans don’t like to cut, and he is using that to his strategic advantage.

As soon as Republican lawmakers adopt a new strategy that recognizes that Democrats don’t like to raise taxes, we will pass a budget.

Anyone who thinks it will be January is delusional.

He’s right about this weird Rauner assumption that Democrats can be “rewarded” for whacking unions by being allowed to vote for a tax hike. It makes no sense whatsoever, and it’s why I recently called for a capital plan to help grease the wheels.

Giving the Democrats a tax hike vote ain’t giving them a win. The resulting revenue is a win, for sure (and, don’t kid yourself, it’s a win for both parties), but the tax hike vote is not.

  47 Comments      


*** LIVE COVERAGE *** Dorothy Brown slating rescinded by Cook Dems

Friday, Oct 23, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Cook County Democrats have gathered to discuss whether to rescind Clerk of the Circuit Court Dorothy Brown’s party slating. [UPDATE: The slating was rescinded.] Watch it go down via ScribbleLive

  54 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Cullerton will also attend *** Madigan agrees to good government groups’ budget meeting request

Friday, Oct 23, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Remember that letter to the four tops and the governor yesterday from several good government groups which offered to host a meeting to “discuss solutions for the current prolonged budget impasse threatening our state”?

Well, Speaker Madigan called them back. Not only was he interested in the idea, he also suggested that the meeting be held in public.

The Union League Club offered a room. A date has been set: November 18th from 9:30 to noon.

“We’re now in the process of going back to all the leaders,” said Susan Garrett, who chairs the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform.

I’ll let you know what I hear from the rest of them.

*** UPDATE *** Senate President John Cullerton’s spokesperson just told me that Cullerton has accepted the invite and will attend.

  129 Comments      


Today’s number: $225 million

Friday, Oct 23, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Bloomberg

The State Employees’ Retirement System on Wednesday asked the Illinois State Board of Investment for $100 million on Nov. 10, and another $125 million on Dec. 10 to pay for retiree benefits in the next two months, according to Tim Blair, the system’s executive secretary. The request for cash from the investment board is the largest in the system’s history.

The call comes one week after Comptroller Leslie Geissler Munger said Illinois’s $560 million November payment to its retirement funds would be delayed, and its December payment could also be postponed as the budget stalemate approaches a fifth month. The move was the latest in a series of measures such as failing to appropriate funds to some social-service providers and agencies like the secretary of state’s office that have worsened a financial crisis that is triggering credit downgrades to the state and local entities. Moody’s Investors Service cut Illinois’s general-obligation rating on Thursday.

“I’m disappointed by a lack of willingness to pass a budget,” said Gary Pollack, who manages $12 billion, including some Illinois debt, as head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank AG’s Private Wealth Management unit in New York. For the pensions, “given the level of underfunding, it would probably be more prudent to get more money into that fund sooner rather than later,” he said. […]

While the fund has requested transfers in the past, it has never had withdrawals of more than $100 million, said Blair, who is based in Springfield, the state capital.

  17 Comments      


Child care and the workforce

Friday, Oct 23, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* During last year’s campaign, Bruce Rauner talked often about people dropping out of the labor force. For instance, here’s a press release

Bruce Rauner: “Tens of thousands of people are giving up looking for work because of Pat Quinn’s failed policies. More than 63,000 people have given up hope on finding a job since April and Pat Quinn is out celebrating — it’s downright offensive to struggling families around Illinois.”

* Well, slashing the Child Care Assistance Program is certainly making families struggle and risks driving thousands out of the workforce

Danielle Kimble hasn’t had the easiest year.

The 25-year-old single mom recently was hit with a double whammy. She was laid off from her job as a receptionist for Youth Services Network, a nonprofit that serves disadvantaged youths in Winnebago and Boone Counties, at the beginning of October because of the state budget impasse. Unemployment checks have helped, but now if she finds a new job, Kimble could lose the state child care assistance she needs for four-year-old Ja’ciane’s day care.

“It’s like I lose either way,” Kimble said.

Kimble, like thousands of other low-income parents throughout northern Illinois, is the victim of drastic cuts to the state’s Child Care Assistance Program, which provided child care subsidies to qualifying full-time workers or students. Citing a lack of funds due to Illinois’ unsolved budget crisis, Gov. Bruce Rauner’s administration in July enacted “emergency” rules that greatly reduced the scope of program. Before cuts, a family of two could qualify for the program by earning $2,456 a month. Now, the same family can only receive subsidies if breadwinners take in $664 a month — less money than a full-time, minimum-wage employee makes. […]

When Kimble received child care assistance, she said she paid only $50 to $80 per month to send Ja’ciane to Hand-n-Hand Child Care Center in Loves Park. Now, she must pay $145 per week to cover her son’s combination day care and preschool. Without an income, Kimble owes thousands of dollars in back payments to Hand-n-Hand. She’s been trying to get out of debt and wants to move to a nicer apartment, but her child care dilemma is holding her back.

* From a recent analysis by Illinois Action for Children

• The number of child care assistance applications submitted in August 2015 is down almost 50 percent from August 2014. This suggests that many parents, knowing they will be denied, are deciding to not even apply.

• The CCAP caseload decreased by 9 percent, from 154,050 to 140,812 [almost 15,000 people], after just one month of data collected under the new rules.

• Since July 1 st, 100 providers in Cook County alone have reported closing their doors

  38 Comments      


Question of the day

Friday, Oct 23, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Your caption?…


  67 Comments      


Examining the Moody’s downgrade

Friday, Oct 23, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Today’s coverage of yesterday’s Moody’s downgrade was mostly he said/she said goofiness. Let’s look at the actual language, shall we?

SUMMARY RATING RATIONALE

The downgrades reflect weakening of the state’s financial position during 2015 and our expectation that an ongoing budget stalemate will lead to further deterioration.

Did you see the date? It’s all about this year. This impasse. This particular problem. Forget about making excuses and playing the victim. Fix this crisis.

* Let us continue

Structural budget imbalance, accounts payable, and other fiscal metrics are back-tracking, despite a favorable economic climate, leaving the state more vulnerable to the next economic downturn, barring unexpectedly strong and swift corrective actions.

Wait. Did Moody’s say Illinois has a “favorable economic climate”? Did it also say the state would be vulnerable to the next economic downturn unless “strong and swift” actions are taken on the state budget?

Why, yes, they did.

That’s one of the strongest independent third party rebukes of the governor’s ongoing effort to hold the budget hostage while pushing for his anti-union reforms I have yet seen.

* More

WHAT COULD MAKE THE RATING GO UP

- Implementation of a realistic plan to provide long-term funding for pension obligations

- Progress in reducing payment backlog and adoption of legal framework to prevent renewed build-up of unpaid bills

- Expectation of sustainable, structural budget balance

What? No mention of whacking unions? Nothing about term limits? C’mon, Moody’s! You’re off script!

* More

WHAT COULD MAKE THE RATING GO DOWN

- Persistent and growing structural imbalance that leads to reduced liquidity and growing payment backlog

- Continued growth in unfunded pension liabilities and indications of unwillingness to allocate sufficient resources to retiree benefits

In other words, stay on this current track and you’re gonna get zapped again, dudes.

* I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I totally agree with the governor that we need some economic reforms if state taxes are increased. But as long as the governor sticks to his radical proposals on collective bargaining, this state ain’t going anywhere but down.

  66 Comments      


Then and now

Friday, Oct 23, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This May 1, 2014 Chicago Tribune editorial was an exceedingly rare rebuke of Bruce Rauner

Gov. Pat Quinn made a politically difficult but necessary decision 2 1/2 years ago to scale back the state’s antiquated and expensive network of developmental centers — institutions that care for people who can’t live independently because of profound disabilities. Most other states have closed these facilities and moved residents whenever it’s appropriate to community-based group homes. It is the compassionate and cost-effective thing to do.

Bruce Rauner, the Republican candidate for governor, recently announced that he opposes Quinn’s plans to close the Murray Developmental Center in Centralia. “Right now, Murray Center is the best option for these families,” Rauner said at a Saturday appearance there.

Rauner wants to keep the center operating until the relatives and guardians of all of its 222 residents are willing to accept an alternative placement for their loved ones, a campaign spokesman said.

This mystifies us. Doesn’t Rauner profess to be the candidate who will make the tough decisions to put Illinois on sound financial footing? In this case, he’s taking political advantage of a tough decision made by Quinn … to put Illinois on sound financial footing.

But this wasn’t just a cold financial calculation by Quinn. The evidence from around the country is that people with disabilities are better served by living in community settings than by living in institutions.

* Today’s column by one of those same editorial board members puts the exact opposite spin on the development center closures

In 2011, Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan attended a private fundraiser for Republican U.S. House Speaker John Boehner. Madigan was a guest of the host, Terrence Duffy, chairman of CME Group, the parent company of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade.

Four months later, Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton gathered lawmakers in Springfield for a rare special session to approve tax-break legislation that included CME Group, cutting the company’s annual state income taxes nearly in half.

At the time, Illinois was facing the possible shutdown of seven facilities, including mental health institutions and a home for the developmentally disabled. For weeks, parents with adult disabled children were visiting the Capitol trying to save the facility slated for closure. They pushed their loved ones around in wheelchairs or sat outside the House chamber carrying framed pictures of their kids.

Their efforts didn’t work. Jacksonville Developmental Center was eventually closed. But CME Group got its tax break.

* From a thoughtful, balanced November 16, 2011 Chicago Tribune editorial about that CME Group tax break

CME has argued that its tax burden is too high, and that’s correct. Its business has shifted from the open-outcry trading floors to computerized trading. Its tax structure didn’t shift at all, and the company pays as if every transaction still takes place amid the shouting and arm-waving of the old trading pits. CME should have acted long ago to address the inequity, and it’s unfortunate for CME that Duffy’s timing fell flat.

…Adding… From comments…

She also ignores the fact that the CME legislative package also included an increase in the standard deduction and an increase in the EITC. So it’s not like it was only a corporate giveaway. (Though the bills did have to be separated out, because members of a certain political party for for the corporate welfare, but against providing greater relief to actual people.)

She also ignores the fact that Madigan and Cullerton provided funding to not close those facilities. (At the behest of the Republicans, those paragons of fiscal responsibility.). But Quinn closed them anyways.

  36 Comments      


Rauner, trade unions reach agreement, want to “improve relations”

Friday, Oct 23, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This press release kinda got lost in the shuffle yesterday…

After several months of good faith negotiations, Governor Bruce Rauner has agreed to terms on new four-year collective bargaining agreements with the International Union of Operating Engineers, the United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipefitting Industry, and the International Association of Machinist and Aerospace Workers. The last set of agreements expired June 30, 2015.

The new contracts cover workers at the Departments of Agriculture, Central Management Services, Corrections, Historic Preservation, Human Services, Juvenile Justice, Military Affairs, Transportation, Veterans’ Affairs, and the Illinois State Police. The employees are all professional tradesmen and women who work as stationary engineers and plant operators, plumbers and steamfitters, and machinists.

The tentative agreements are being submitted to the membership of the trade unions for a ratification vote. The terms of the tentative agreements are confidential until the end of the ratification process.

As a continuation of the productive negotiating sessions, the trade unions and the Governor’s Office also pledged to form a long-term relationship to improve employer-labor relations in state government.

One sure-fire way to improve those relations would be to stop bashing unions and proposing to gut collective bargaining rights after repeatedly claiming no interest in doing so during last year’s campaign.

  66 Comments      


Jim Edgar is not going away

Friday, Oct 23, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Cassie Buchman at the Daily Eastern

“It is not all (Rauner’s) fault, but the governor is the person in charge and the governor has got to be the one who sets aside maybe some of the things they’d like to do to get done what has to be done,” [former Gov. Jim Edgar] said. “Right now, we need a budget. Hopefully both sides will kind of come together.” […]

To pass a budget, Edgar said everyone has to do things they might not want to do.

“Democrats don’t like to cut, Republicans don’t like to raise taxes, but they’re gonna have to do both,” Edgar said. “People have to realize there are things they want, but might not be able to get this year.”

Edgar said nothing’s more important right now than bringing stability to the state.

“You cannot have a state function without a budget, and four months is way too long,” Edgar said.

  94 Comments      


For the umpteenth time, Madigan urges focus on budget

Thursday, Oct 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

House Speaker Michael J. Madigan issued the following statement after Moody’s Investor Services downgraded Illinois’ credit Thursday. The downgrade comes just three days after Fitch Ratings issued a downgrade of its own to the state’s credit rating:

“Two credit downgrades in the same week are certainly nothing to claim victory over and nothing to ignore. These downgrades will have direct consequences on state taxpayers. The interest rate on future debt repayment will be higher, costing taxpayers more for the foreseeable future.

“Yet despite the Fitch Ratings downgrade Monday, Governor Rauner has insisted on moving ahead with his agenda, which would damage middle-class families’ standard of living and drive down wages, despite the clear lack of support for his agenda from Democrats and Republicans alike.

“With its own credit downgrade Thursday, Moody’s made it very clear that what the state needs to do is focus on eliminating our budget deficit, creating a long-term plan to fund the state’s pensions and reducing the state’s bill backlog.

“We all want economic growth, more business investment and more good-paying jobs for hard-working families in every part of Illinois. That is not in question. These priorities can be achieved through a state budget that takes a balanced approach with some spending cuts and some new revenue, not by slashing services and programs that families count on.

“The biggest issue facing Illinois is the state budget deficit. Two credit downgrades in less than a week have driven home that important fact. So I urge the governor, again, to put aside his agenda that Democrats and Republicans alike oppose - an agenda that will hurt middle-class and struggling families - and instead focus on a budget that helps all Illinoisans.”

…Adding… From the governor’s office…

Hi, Rich –

The report is another confirmation that years of unbalanced budgets, deficit spending and mismanagement have damaged Illinois’ fiscal health and major, structural reforms are needed to restore it. This is more proof that instead of blocking all reforms and passing a broken budget that was $4 billion in the hole, the Super Majority in charge of the legislature should partner with the governor to enact real reforms that will grow jobs and free up more resources to balance the budget.

All the best,

Lyndsey

Um, the downgrade focused pretty exclusively on actions (or lack thereof) during calendar year 2015.

  74 Comments      


A commenter retires

Thursday, Oct 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the commenter known as “DuPage Dan”…

Mr Miller,

I am closing my nearly 26 years as a state employee. Today is my last day working at the Guardianship and Advocacy Commission.

While I may visit the blog from time to time, it is unlikely I will be posting since I am also leaving the state and traveling much over the next several years.

I appreciate this venue, and all the hard work you put into it. I may not be on the same “side” as you are but I appreciate having a monitored forum to see what other folks believe and say. There are few venues where this can occur, as you well know.

Take care, sir and all the best for you in this great state.

Daniel McNeil

What a classy way to go out.

Thanks, man. Have a great retirement.

  55 Comments      


Illinois Policy Institute poll: Everybody is unpopular and nobody has a clear mandate

Thursday, Oct 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Illinois Policy Institute

Today, Illinois Policy Action released the results of a new statewide poll conducted this week by Ogden & Fry. The poll found that likely Illinois voters are frustrated with the General Assembly budget gridlock and their elected officials – but they blame state politicians and Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan the most, as opposed to Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner. The poll also found that nearly half of likely voters would have an unfavorable view of elected officials who raise taxes to balance the budget.

Illinois has been without a state budget for more than 100 days. Lawmakers sent Rauner a budget that was unbalanced by nearly $4 billion, so he vetoed almost all of it. Rauner has said he would like to see the state make significant economic reforms before considering raising taxes. State politicians, specifically those under the leadership of Speaker Madigan, have refused to pass such reforms.

“The poll results are clear: Illinoisans are frustrated by the budget stalemate, and they’re frustrated with politicians who are holding the budget hostage in opposition to much-needed economic reforms,” said John Tillman, CEO of Illinois Policy Action. “For many years, lawmakers relied on tax hikes, borrowing and accounting gimmicks to pass unbalanced budgets, and voters see where that dysfunction has led the state. That’s why voters don’t want politicians to raise taxes to balance the budget, and they are putting more blame on Madigan and other members of the General Assembly than the newly elected governor. With these poll results out in the open, politicians now have a choice whose side they’ll take.”

Ogden & Fry conducted the statewide poll on Oct. 20 and 21. The same poll also was conducted in Cook County.

Here are some key findings from the statewide poll:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Gov. Rauner is handling his job?

    Approve: 34.4 percent [Corrected number]
    Disapprove: 53.2 percent
    Undecided: 12.4 percent

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Speaker Madigan is handling his job?

    Approve: 19.9 percent
    Disapprove: 57.2 percent
    Undecided: 22.8 percent

Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of the Illinois General Assembly?

    Approve: 9.8 percent
    Disapprove: 69.6 percent
    Undecided: 20.6 percent

How would you view the elected official who raised taxes to balance the budget?

    Favorably: 30.8 percent
    Unfavorably: 48.8 percent
    Undecided: 20.4 percent

* None of that is a surprise, except that Madigan’s disapproval rating is only a few points higher than Rauner’s. That’s a big surprise to me. It took Madigan 40+ years to rack up that disapproval rating. Rauner has apparently done it in less than a year.

* But, unsurprisingly, there’s more to the poll than the group reveals - mainly that there is no mandate for either side here.

“Illinois is in terrible financial shape. Should Gov. Rauner fix the political and economic issues that created the problems even if services to the needy are cut?”…

“The Illinois Constitution requires the State to have a balanced budget. The State Budget has not been balanced in over 10 years helping create today’s budget crisis. How would you view the elected official who cut services to balance the budget?”…

“In order to fix the budget, would you rather services be cut or pay more in taxes?”…

* And check this one out: “Are you or someone in your immediate family affected by the budget stalemate?”…

That’s a huge percentage of the population.

  84 Comments      


Moody’s downgrades Illinois

Thursday, Oct 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* First Fitch, now Moody’s

Moody’s downgrades Illinois’ outstanding $27B of GO bonds to Baa1; outlook negative

Global Credit Research - 22 Oct 2015

About $33B of debt affected including subject-to-appropriation and sales-tax securities

New York, October 22, 2015 — Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded the State of Illinois’ $26.8 billion of general obligation bonds to Baa1 from A3, while also lowering ratings on the state’s sales-tax (Build Illinois) bonds to Baa1 from A3, and on the state’s subject to appropriation bonds (issued by the Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority and for the state’s Civic Center program) to Baa2 from Baa1. The outlook for all of these obligations remains negative.

SUMMARY RATING RATIONALE

The downgrades reflect weakening of the state’s financial position during 2015 and our expectation that an ongoing budget stalemate will lead to further deterioration. Structural budget imbalance, accounts payable, and other fiscal metrics are back-tracking, despite a favorable economic climate, leaving the state more vulnerable to the next economic downturn, barring unexpectedly strong and swift corrective actions. Any recurring measures ultimately enacted for the fiscal year that began July 1 will have a short time in which to offset the state’s approximately $6 billion (or 16%) general fund deficit caused in part by recent income tax cuts. Payment deferrals could drive the state’s balance of unpaid bills higher than the levels seen in late 2012, when the backlog approached $10 billion. Additionally, the partisan gridlock evident this year is impeding efforts to address the state’s unfunded liabilities for pensions and retiree health benefits. Despite the emergence of early speculative characteristics, Illinois’ credit is still supported by a diverse economy, legal provisions that ensure continued payment on debt even with no enacted budget, and a broad legal ability to adjust state revenues and spending.

OUTLOOK

The state’s negative outlook is consistent with the potential for additional credit weakening following this year’s extended budget impasse. Further deterioration in key measures, such as the state’s unfunded pension liabilities and amount of unpaid bills, would put pressure on the state’s GO and related ratings.

WHAT COULD MAKE THE RATING GO UP

- Implementation of a realistic plan to provide long-term funding for pension obligations

- Progress in reducing payment backlog and adoption of legal framework to prevent renewed build-up of unpaid bills

- Expectation of sustainable, structural budget balance

WHAT COULD MAKE THE RATING GO DOWN

- Persistent and growing structural imbalance that leads to reduced liquidity and growing payment backlog

- Continued growth in unfunded pension liabilities and indications of unwillingness to allocate sufficient resources to retiree benefits

OBLIGOR PROFILE

Illinois is the fifth most-populous state in the US, with estimated 2014 population of 12.88 million. Almost three quarters of its residents live in and around Chicago (Ba1 negative), the nation’s third-largest city. The state is comparatively wealthy and economically diverse, with personal income per capita equal to 103.5% of the nation.

* The Bond Buyer was prescient this week

Investors should brace for further deterioration of Illinois’ already battered bond ratings after this week’s Fitch Ratings downgrade prompted state leaders to further dig their heels in over the state budget impasse, market participants said Tuesday. […]

“I don’t know how much more patience the rating agencies will have. The state is going down a path that is going to be difficult to recover from,” said James Colby, senior municipal strategist at Van Eck Global.

  58 Comments      


Question of the day

Thursday, Oct 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The governor spoke to school kids this week

Another student asked what tasks he has to perform.

Gov. Rauner told the students he meets with world leaders, attends funerals for fallen officers and firefighters, and signs bills into law.

* The Question: Can you also describe the governor’s job duties?

  116 Comments      


More ideas, more demands

Thursday, Oct 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The sentiment is nice, but it’s not like there is a particular “logistics” problem with getting the four tops in the same room as the governor. But, hey, if it moves the ball forward, I’m fine with it…

We are calling for a meeting between the governor and the four Illinois legislative leaders to discuss solutions for the current prolonged budget impasse threatening our state.

This inaction is unprecedented and unacceptable to Illinois voters.

The Illinois Campaign for Political Reform along with Illinois Public Interest Research Group and our other nonpartisan reform organizations want to help.

We are ready to facilitate the logistics of a meeting in either Chicago or Springfield but believe that it must occur prior to Nov. 15 due to the urgent need for resolution on this issue.

After more than 100 days of this stalemate, the consequences have become clear. Illinois residents in serious need are unable to receive important government services, and many non-profit organizations are unable to continue critically important work tied to state grants. Illinois’ state universities and community colleges may not be able to operate in the next semester of this academic year, leaving many students unable to graduate on time.

The consequences are too great.

We cannot let this situation continue.

While leadership may not align on some core principles, we believe it is necessary for them to meet together, work through these issues and agree on a budget.

Now is the time to act, before the consequences become even more dire.

We extend this offer with sincere concern for the citizens and the state of Illinois.

    Susan Garrett, board chair, Illinois Campaign for Political Reform
    Mary Kubasak, president, League of Women Voters of Illinois
    Hoy McConnell, executive director, Business and Professional People for the Public Interest
    Maryam Judar, executive director, Citizen Advocacy Center
    George Ranney, chair, CHANGE Illinois
    Andy Shaw, president and CEO, Better Government Association

* I checked with the comptroller’s office and there’s no change in her belief that economic reforms must come if taxes are to rise to pay for all this…

Comptroller Leslie Geissler Munger on Thursday toured the Community Crisis Center in Elgin and discussed the impact the state’s budget impasse is having on domestic violence providers and other nonprofits in Illinois.

Without a budget in place, the state is legally not able to pay domestic service providers for work they have done since July 1. As a result, some centers have had to dig deep into their cash reserves, others have had to lay off workers and cut services, and others have closed their doors. Thousands of victims of domestic violence are going unserved.

“Ironically, October is National Domestic Violence Awareness Month,” Munger said. “The best way to acknowledge and honor the efforts of our domestic violence providers this month is to pass a balanced budget so they can continue providing critical services to women and children in need.”

* And legalized kidnapping? Hmm

One Illinois State Senator is trying to re-cast John Hughes’ Cult ‘80s classic “The Breakfast Club” with the state’s political leaders.

Deerfield Democrat Senator Julie Morrison filed legislation Tuesday that would essentially lock Illinois’ leaders into a room once every week until they learn to play nice with the people’s’ tax dollars. If passed, Senate Bill 2190 would make these weekly after-school detentions a public forum so all of Illinois can see how well it’s government is getting along.

  49 Comments      


On the other hand…

Thursday, Oct 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From commenter lake county democrat

What was Pat Quinn’s main goal when he came into office? Political reform. How far did he get with it? Nowhere - Madigan forced him to throw his own blue-ribbon commission under the bus and sign a warm puddle of next-to-nothing (I won’t say nothing because there was a soupcon of worth items in there). Now imagine if he had said “This state is messed up with corruption and I’m going to fix it, or you legislators are going to face the voters owning it. No budget gets passed without this reform.” Now imagine if Madigan had said “WE WON’T EVEN DISCUSS THOSE REFORMS - YOU WILL NOT HOLD THE BUDGET HOSTAGE.” I think there would have been immense pressure on Madigan to cave and at least agree to negotiate. I think there would have been stronger reforms passed as a result.

If you assume that 1) Rauner wants as many anti-union / pro-business goals as possible, 2) knows he won’t get everything he wants but 3) would rather force the Dems to take ownership rather than agree to something like Quinn did, his actions make sense. What other leverage does he have?

  82 Comments      


The roots of the impasse and how we got here

Thursday, Oct 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Illinois Issues

On September 18, 2012, the year before Bruce Rauner declared his candidacy for governor, he shared his vision for a crisis that could help reshape state government.

“In Illinois there’s been a long-time history of what I would call social service, social justice, a bigger role for government in the safety net than in many other states,” Rauner said at a tax policy conference sponsored by the George W. Bush Institute. “I think we can drive a wedge issue in the Democratic Party on that topic and bring the folks who say, ‘You know what? For our tax dollars, I’d rather help the disadvantaged, the handicapped, the elderly, the children in poverty. I’d rather have my tax dollars going to that than the SEIU or Af-scammy (AFSCME), who are out there for their own interests.’”

Three years later, Rauner says he’s “very unhappy” Illinois is without a budget. But he has followed through with his proposal that “the disadvantaged, the handicapped, the elderly, the children in poverty” be conscripted into his battle against organized labor. Domestic violence shelters are turning away victims. People with mental illness are losing access to treatment. Programs that make it less likely delinquent juveniles will become adult criminals are scaling back or closing. […]

All of this amounts to a selective government shutdown, and it appears to be the early result of Rauner realizing his vision. The plan imagined Democrats could be prodded into turning against unions. But a close examination of all the changes Rauner is demanding for labor in Illinois — and both the practical and political consequences of those changes — shows why Democrats have so far refused to relent, and why they say they never will. […]

In the run-up to the general election, on the other hand, Rauner was careful to mostly avoid union talk. “Pushing any specific labor regulation is not my priority at all,” he told Illinois Radio Network less than a month before voters went to the polls. Four months later, he unveiled the Turnaround Agenda. […]

Rauner, however, says his labor agenda “is not a partisan issue, it’s a good government issue.” At an appearance in Decatur last week, he discussed other topics, like selling the Thompson Center in Chicago and changes he wants for state pension plans. But he says labor is the core issue: “Are we going to be willing to modify how we handle collective bargaining inside government in Illinois or not? Are we going to take that on?” […]

“Crisis creates opportunity. Crisis creates leverage to change,” Rauner told the Chicago Tribune editorial board in April. “We’ve got to use that leverage of the crisis to force structural change.”

They missed one. Remember last year when he debated Pat Quinn at the Illinois Education Association?

Quinn also compared Rauner to Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, saying he wanted to bust unions.

“Limiting collective bargaining is not part of my agenda,” countered Rauner.

* And even though Gov. Rauner told the Tribune editorial board what he planned to do back in April, that board continues to put the blame solely on the House Speaker

So if you think the Democrats are sincere about fixing their budget mess, think again. And catch this: Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle told us Wednesday that the county is waiting on $70 million from the state. When Preckwinkle talked to Madigan about the money this summer, he told her to not count on a budget resolution until 2016 … when the state runs out of money.

“I was surprised and disappointed,” Preckwinkle said.

Madigan’s spokesman didn’t get back to us to clarify. But Madigan’s plan is clear: Wait it out, refuse to budge, blame Rauner.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Madigan shares significant blame here. I would never suggest otherwise.

But the Tribune editorial board has its devil, so its members will see only what they want to see, even when the governor himself makes it plain as day. From today

“We’re going through some change, change is difficult, change causes pain. We believe very strongly that we’re going to go through some short term pain for some very long term gain,” Rauner said.

He dismissed suggestions that his refusal to back down could do more harm than good should he not eventually get his way, saying he’s been encouraged by business leaders to “stay the course.”

  42 Comments      


Emphasis added

Thursday, Oct 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This week’s column from Jim Nowlan, who served three Republican governors

Few businesses in their right minds would locate in Illinois right now, with its unstable and unpredictable fiscal and tax future.

* From last year

Republican candidate for governor Bruce Rauner issued the following statement regarding the news that Illinois’ unemployment rate was unchanged last month:

“Tragically, under Pat Quinn’s dismal leadership, Illinois continues to lag far behind our neighboring states and the rest of America. We will only get Illinoisans back on the job, when Pat Quinn loses his job.”

* The Illinois Policy Institute this week

Illinois only created 2,200 total jobs in the first nine months of 2015, whereas its neighbors have seen significantly higher jobs growth. Iowa has created six times as many jobs as Illinois between January 2015 and September 2015, and Missouri and Kentucky have each created seven times as many jobs as Illinois during the same period. Wisconsin residents have seen 12 times as many jobs created as have Illinoisans. Indiana created 18 times as many jobs as Illinois, and Michigan created 24 times as many jobs as Illinois between January 2015 and September 2015.

* From the campaign last year

In August of [2013], the Illinois jobless rate was 9.2 percent. Last month’s [2014] rate was 6.7 percent as state officials report the creation of 13,800 jobs, including 2,000 in manufacturing. […]

“We need to grow,” Rauner said. “I’ve been a business builder. I’ll grow our economy and we’ll fix our problems through growth.”

* From late August this year

A major financial supporter of Rauner is the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association. Greg Baise, the group’s president and CEO, said that regardless of the future political implications, both sides need to reach a compromise on the budget quickly.

“You can only go so far when you wake up every day and Mike Madigan has 71 votes and John Cullerton has 39 votes, and that’s not going to change until the next election,” Baise said.

“I applaud the governor for his ardent support of business reforms that the business community supports very strongly. But ultimately, we need to get a budget, a balanced budget, so our businesses — manufacturers included — understand that this state is finally getting its act together,” he said.

* Illinois Policy Institute this week

Illinois continued to shed jobs in September, as the state lost a total of 6,900 jobs, including 1,800 manufacturing jobs, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS. Illinois has lost manufacturing jobs in eight of the nine months between January 2015 and September 2015, for a total loss of 12,500 manufacturing jobs during this time period.

* From last year

Rauner acknowledged in a statement that “it’s always good news when more Illinoisans are working,” but that didn’t stop him from calling the figures into question hours before they were even released. Speaking at a downtown job fair for veterans, Rauner said the data could be “misleading,” arguing the jobless rate may have dropped because many people have simply stopped looking for work. […]

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, 64.7 percent of the state’s population was employed in July 2014, down slightly than a year prior when that figure was 65.3 percent. Nationally, the labor force participation rate was 62.9, down from 63.4 during the same time period last year.

* From the Illinois Policy Institute this week

Worker dropout has driven Illinois’ labor-force participation rate to 38-year lows, dropping to 64.4 percent in September 2015 from 68.8 percent before the 2008 recession.

  73 Comments      


Rauner throws brush-back pitch at GOP predecessors

Thursday, Oct 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Riopell

Facing criticism from two past Republican governors in recent days, Gov. Bruce Rauner pushed back Thursday, saying Illinois faces harder challenges than when Govs. Jim Thompson and Jim Edgar were in office.

“I don’t spend any time criticizing my fellow Republicans,” Rauner told reporters today. “I do not spend any time criticizing decisions made in the past that created the mess that we’re dealing with.”

…Adding… From comments…

Wasn’t he the guy who said something like a third of GA Republicans were corrupt, too?

Yep.

  51 Comments      


Nothing new here, move along

Thursday, Oct 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I’m not sure where this came from, but it’s not like it’s a new development…


Rauner backed off his so-called “right to work” push months ago when it apparently became obvious even to him that it was backfiring by firmly uniting organized labor.

* And, needless to say, dropping one idea of many that have absolutely zero chances of passage is neither negotiating nor compromising.

It would be like the Democrats saying they’ve dropped their plan to eliminate all restaurants, so now Rauner must compromise on their proposal to forbid the sale of cheeseburgers, and maybe, just maybe, they might be open to compromise by only banning double cheeseburgers with grilled onions. And then, and only then, will the Democrats give the governor the privilege of emptying all state prisons.

  33 Comments      


Facing the music

Thursday, Oct 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Queens, NY Times Newsweekly

Before the NLCS started, [New York State Sen. Joseph Addabbo] and his fellow Queens senators agreed to the wager with Illinois Senate President John Cullerton and his colleagues. Should the Mets win, the Illinois Senate will ship deep-dish Chicago-style pizza to the Queens senators; should the Cubs prevail, the Queens senators will send to the Illinois Senate thin-crust New Yorkstyle pizza.

The losing delegation must also congratulate the winning team on the floor of its Senate chambers, and the senators must wear the winning team’s apparel during a cleanup day within their districts. […]

“I hope that Senator Cullerton looks good in blue and orange, and I wish our counterparts in Chicago the best of luck in coming up with a creative way to keep the deep-dish pizza warm while on its way to Queens,” [said Addabbo].

Wrigley Field is in Cullerton’s district, but he’s more of a Sox fan. Still, that isn’t gonna be fun.

…Adding… LizPhairTax has already won the Internet today with this gem

Whatever Addabbo. We’ll get to it right after we pay the butter cow lady.

If you don’t get the joke, the as of yet unpaid Illinois State Fair “butter cow lady” lives in New York.

  21 Comments      


Laying the groundwork?

Thursday, Oct 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From Jane Michaels at Pioneer Press

Illinois Senate Republican Minority Leader Christine Radogno said a tax increase is inevitable, given the state’s woefully inadequate pension funding levels and a legal ruling against legislation to revamp pension obligations.

“We have to bite the bullet and pay it,” Radogno said. “The payments have to be made. That does put Illinois at a disadvantage.” […]

Radogno said lawmakers likely will consider hiking the state income tax or taxing retirement income, rather than increasing the state sales tax or instituting a tax on services.

Illinois is one of the few states, which doesn’t tax retirement income, she noted. Any plan would have to avoid encouraging retirees to join others who’ve moved because it’s cheaper to live in another state with lower taxes, she said.

Radogno said she wasn’t optimistic about an end to the state’s budget impasse in the near future. It’s possible Chicago representatives could force Democratic leaders to the negotiating table so a deal could be reached before January when only a simple majority is needed to take votes on difficult issues, such as raising taxes, she said.

The fact that she’s not only talking about an income tax hike, but also a tax on retirement income is quite significant.

Then again, we’re nowhere near to a vote on any of that right now.

  117 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Thursday, Oct 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

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  Comments Off      


Good morning!

Thursday, Oct 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Right through the lightning and the thunder

To the dark side of the moon

  14 Comments      


Rauner on the stump

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Keep in mind that he proposed huge childcare program cuts in his February budget…


* And this is an interesting admission…


Maybe she’s been having tea with Edgar and Thompson.

/snark

  113 Comments      


Seeya…

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Don’t wanna beeya

Former Illinois state Rep. Derrick Smith, of Chicago, has been ordered by a federal judge to report to prison on Friday.

The judge denied Smith’s attorneys’ attempts to keep the ex-lawmaker out of prison while they appeal his five-month sentence for his conviction on attempted extortion and bribery charges. Judges can allow a convicted person to remain out of jail if it appears that a higher court might accept their appeal and overturn the conviction, but U.S. District Judge Sharon Johnson Coleman indicated that will probably not happen for Smith.

The ex-lawmaker was convicted in June of 2014 for accepting a $7,000 cash bribe in exchange for writing a letter of support for a day care center seeking a state grant. During his trial, prosecutors played secret recordings of Smith allegedly accepting 70 $100 bills in exchange for the recommendation in what was ultimately an FBI sting.

* Also, some folks on the county central committee might want to keep in mind who was responsible for sending Smith to the House. The Illinois House, not the big house..

A Democratic Party committee is set to meet Wednesday to discuss rescinding the party’s endorsement of Cook County Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown, with Ald. Michelle Harris (8th) and Ald. Walter Burnett (27th) being floated as potential replacements on the March primary ballot. […]

Burnett said he’s interested but wants to see what the party leaders decide.

“My mentor is asking me to take a look at it,” Burnett said. “I will say a lot of my supporters have been pushing me . . . I may if the party asks me. I’ll consider it.”

Emphasis added in case you weren’t clear.

  11 Comments      


Munger to talk about domestic/sexual violence programs

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Greg Hinz

Illinois Comptroller Leslie Munger, who recently caught some heat from fellow Republicans for seeming to suggest that Gov. Bruce Rauner ought to stop union-bashing and just cut a budget deal, may be about to catch some more.

The comptroller, appointed by Rauner but now running for the job in next year’s elections, is due to tour the Community Crisis Center in Elgin, which provides services to Illinoisans dealing with domestic violence, sexual assault or economic and financial difficulties. She’ll then hold a press conference with its leaders to “highlight (the) ramifications of the (Illinois) budget impasse,” according to an advisory from her office. […]

But by publicly underlining that domestic violence shelters are not included in that part of the state budget that’s on auto-pilot, Munger inevitably will be boosting pressure on Rauner to save women from being beat up and leave anti-union reforms until later.

* From the twitters…


* From Voices for Illinois Children…

To refresh, here is what zero state investment in domestic and sexual violence services means:

    * Ending state funding for services that help 75,000 survivors of domestic violence across the state of Illinois—20,000 women and children in Cook County alone. This includes medical, psychological and legal services as well as emergency shelter and other protections.

    * Some rape crisis centers are facing closure and others will be forced to lay off 30-40 percent of their staffs in the coming months, which would result in turning away 3,400 victims of sexual violence who need advocacy and counseling;

    * Eliminating state funding for services that provide immediate crisis intervention for at least 3,700 survivors of sexual assault;

    * Eliminating state funding of civil legal aid, compromising access to the civil justice system for 17,500 vulnerable Illinoisans impacted by domestic violence, eviction, and financial exploitation.

  23 Comments      


Question of the day

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Your caption?…

  123 Comments      


Fun with numbers

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Jim Edgar

“An unstable state government — and that’s what we have right now, very unstable — is a detriment to economic growth,” he said. “I mean, folks aren’t going to come to this state and make an investment if they think state government’s dysfunctional.”

Edgar, who is a senior fellow with the University of Illinois’ Institute of Government and Public Affairs, noted that no higher education budget is in force. He said the U of I has a lot of reserves and can cover costs for a while, but other institutions “are really getting into trouble. … I’m not sure how long that can go.”

“One of the strengths this state’s had for years is … a great higher education system,” he said. “I think that is in jeopardy now.”

When he was governor, Edgar said, CEOs of companies would tell him that they’d wanted tax breaks and lower workers’ compensation costs, ” ‘but most important, we want a stable, dependable state government. We want an education system that works. We want a good quality of life.’ “

* From the most recent Illinois Department of Employment Security press release

The Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) announced today that Illinois’ unemployment rate in September declined to 5.4 percent and nonfarm payroll employment shed -6,900 jobs, based on preliminary data released by the Department and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The state’s job numbers dropped for a fourth consecutive month, keeping Illinois below the national average. Based on the slower path recorded this year, IDES analysts anticipate that Illinois employment will not recover from the 2007-2009 recession until April 2017. The nation is currently 2.9 percent above its prior peak level of employment.

Illinois businesses have added only 2,200 new jobs since the beginning of this year,” said Jeff Mays, Director, IDES. “It’s been six years since the recession and job growth is still dismal. We’ve got a long way to go before Illinois realizes real employment and economic recovery.”

* From an IDES press release in October of last year

The Illinois unemployment rate fell in September for the seventh consecutive month to reach 6.6 percent while employers created +19,300 jobs, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security. The data is seasonally adjusted.

The drop from 9.1 percent one year ago marks, for the second consecutive month, the largest year-over-year decline since 1984. The last time the rate was lower than 6.6 percent was in June 2008 when it was 6.3 percent. Also, there are +69,000 more jobs than one year ago.

“Unemployment rates continue to fall because private-sector employers are averaging more than 5,400 new jobs each month since the Illinois economy began to improve,” IDES Director Jay Rowell said. “Meanwhile, help wanted ads for full-time work continue to grow and indicate employers expect their need for more workers to remain strong.”

I’m not saying, I’m just sayin…

All emphasis added.

  71 Comments      


So, how’s that plan working out?

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From June 2nd, 2015

Rauner starts budget cuts to force Dems to negotiate on his agenda

Gov. Bruce Rauner on Tuesday said he will cut spending on programs that help the poor with child care costs and help the elderly stay out of nursing homes, nix the proposed Illiana toll road, close state museums and suspend tax credits for businesses and film production.

The Republican governor billed his moves as a way to show how he will deal with a deficit-ridden Democratic state budget that’s yet to reach his desk. It also represents Rauner’s latest attempt to ratchet up pressure on Democratic lawmakers to agree to the pro-business, anti-union agenda he’s made a condition of getting a budget agreement.

Many of Rauner’s actions appeared aimed at separating rank-and-file Democratic lawmakers from House Speaker Michael Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton. The two Chicago Democrats control the House and Senate, and have presented a largely unified front against the Republican governor.

* Yesterday

Speaking at a Statehouse news conference, Madigan did not report progress in resolving the budget impasse, although he said he has met with Rauner three times in the past few weeks.

“They’ve been very cordial meetings. We had a very full discussion of the issues that are before the legislature and the governor’s office,” Madigan said. “I would say that we have not plowed any new ground. But we weren’t screaming and shouting at each other. I would say it’s better that we meet and talk than not meet and talk.”

…Adding… Related…

* Group warns Illinois State Museum may lose accreditation due to closure

  69 Comments      


Rep. Harper takes “Esther Golar Pledge”

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The first press release I’ve seen quoting the Illinois House’s newest member is from SEIU Healthcare…

Just moments after she was appointed by committeemen to fill the vacant 6th District House seat late Tuesday, community activist Sonya Harper signed the “Esther Golar Pledge” to support Senate Bill 570 and reverse the dangerous cuts to the Illinois Child Care Assistance Program (CCAP) promulgated by Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner.

The unilateral cuts already have excluded more than an estimated 15,000 families from CCAP.

Golar’s last legislative act before her death was to vote for SB 570 and Harper vowed to carry on the legacy of fighting for kids when a vote on the bill comes before the House on Nov. 10th:

    “In an act of total bravery and at great risk to herself, Representative Golar came to Springfield to defy Bruce Rauner and stand up for the people of the 6th District. Her very last vote was to reverse his cruel cuts to child care, which do not solve our budget crisis but DO harm our economy and hurt working families.

    “I have pledged to honor Representative Golar’s legacy and, on November 10th, I hope to join my new colleagues in voting to roll back the Rauner rules which are causing needless devastation to vulnerable residents of the 6th District and across all Illinois.”

  15 Comments      


Loan plan emerges

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* SJ-R

A House committee Tuesday advanced a bill to provide money due to local governments from gaming revenue and fuel taxes, but the day ended with the state apparently no closer to resolving its months-long budget impasse.

The House Executive Committee gave its approval to a $1.9 billion bill that authorizes money to be paid to local governments from money that does not involve general state taxes. […]

“(It) is another attempt by the Democratic majority to piecemeal together a budget that will force a tax hike on hardworking families without any meaningful reforms,” said Rauner spokeswoman Catherine Kelly. […]

“This is money that will not be spent by the state government,” [House Speaker Michael Madigan] said. “Therefore we plan to advance that bill in the House.”

* Meanwhile, the Rauner administration has an alternate plan

Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner’s administration floated a plan that would allow the Illinois Finance Authority to offer towns low-interest loans that could be repaid when the money raised by the gas tax and a 911 surcharge on phone bills is eventually sent out. […]

The proposal would not require legislative approval. It emerged after Democratic lawmakers advanced a competing plan that would release the gas tax and 911 surcharge money, plus $1 billion to the Illinois Lottery, which stopped paying out on winnings of more than $600 this month, saying its checking account ran dry.

Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan said he was not familiar with the Rauner administration’s proposal but expected the broader bill to come before the House for a vote when lawmakers return Nov. 10.

The Democratic legislation has the backing of the Illinois Municipal League, which represents local governments. “Our position is there is no need to take a loan when the state should pay the money that’s owed,” said Brad Cole, the group’s executive director.

The idea might be to get that loan money out the door before the House returns to Springfield next month and therefore spare Republican members from the embarrassment of voting against their local governments.

But there are plenty of other non-GRF approps in that bill, including money for breast cancer victims, grants to the Special Olympics, and lots of stuff for veterans.

And there’s also a new approp bill out there, which would fund programs for the State Fire Marshal (including the University of Illinois’ Fire Service Institute), Sudden Infant Death Syndrome and breast and cervical cancer screenings.

  65 Comments      


The perils of being a moderate

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Illinois Review

Why, oh why, does Sen. Mark Kirk even bother calling himself a Republican anymore?

Tuesday he somehow managed to be the only so-called member of the GOP to vote FOR sanctuary cities and allow the Senatae to keep federal funding while sanctuary cities nullify federal immigration law. […]

This after being given an award Monday by an Illinois anti-gun group and tweeting out a line about needing the close the gun show loophole and blaming Wisconsin, Indiana, and Mississippi???… for the guns being used in all of the gang and drug violence in Chicago, Rockford, and elsewhere in Illinois. […]

Before that, Kirk was voting to keep Planned Parenthood and its baby butchery fully funded.

Before that, he was working with Mitch McConnell and the Democrats to revive the corporate welfare of the Export-Import bank, which we now find out could be used to give out loans to Iran thanks to the nuclear deal.

Before that, he was voting for many of President Obama’s radical nominees.

* EMILY’s List…

EMILY’s List, the nation’s largest resource for women in politics, put Illinois Senator Mark Kirk “On Notice” for 2016. “On Notice” is a list of incumbent Republicans at all levels of government who will be held accountable for their anti-woman, anti-family records in the 2016 elections.

“Senator Mark Kirk can try to run from his record, but his extreme Republican colleagues depend on his support when it’s time to advance their anti-woman and anti-family agenda,” said Stephanie Schriock, president of EMILY’s List. “Sen. Kirk voted against ensuring that survivors of trafficking – the most vulnerable women and girls – would have access to comprehensive health care, voted against a provision to ensure women of color receive adequate services under the Violence Against Women Act, and has consistently opposed legislation aimed at protecting women and families from gender discrimination in pay. It’s clear that Illinois working families can’t count on Sen. Kirk to fight for them to have a fair shot, and that’s why EMILY’s List is putting him ‘On Notice.’”

The group is backing Duckworth for Kirk’s Senate seat.

  31 Comments      


MJM responds to critics

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Illinois Policy Institute’s news service

Asked Tuesday what responsibility he bears for previous downgrades over the years that lead to the [Fitch downgrade to] BBB+ rating, Madigan said he wants to remain focused on solutions.

“If you wish to be a critic of me then you would blame everything that’s happened in the state for the last several years on me. Some do that, some people do that. I don’t choose to be so negative. I choose to look at the problems we are looking at today–work to be reasonable, work to be moderate, work not to be extreme, bring people together and work toward a solution to the problems.”

Governor Bruce Rauner’s office said the Fitch report points to Illinois’ economy lagging behind other states and the major structural challenges facing the Land of Lincoln. Rauner said the legislature continues to protect the failed status quo. The Governor’s office also pointed to statements back in August where the Governor said he doesn’t work for the credit rating agencies, he works for the people.

Those are nice words from Madigan, but they ain’t getting us anywhere.

* Eric Zorn is joining the Tribune editorial board’s call for a new Rauner budget…

Rauner has yet to “prepare and submit” a balanced budget proposal, as the state constitution requires. The budget outline he released back in February relied on $2.2 billion in future savings from a change in pension law that would require a constitutional amendment to enact, and on $3.6 billion in spending cuts that Democrats contend would violate the law or existing contracts.

Instead Rauner has harped on the Democrats for submitting appropriations requests totaling some $3 billion to $4 billion more than anticipated revenue and for refusing to use their supermajority to try to pass tax increases to pay for the spending they want.

Just meeting in the middle on the spending dispute was always going to be hard enough without the paralyzing complication of Rauner’s attacks on unions.

To preserve any chance of winning, in the future, he needs to throw in now, not double down on what’s looking more and more like a losing hand.

Put forth a realistic budget, make the Democrats do the same and hammer out the differences. Live to play another hand.

Rauner can’t “make the Democrats do” anything right now. And he’s not going to introduce a realistic, balanced budget. He doesn’t want to wear the jacket for the cuts, which are usually far more controversial (to people who actually vote) than the tax hikes.

* The Speaker would be wise to heed his own advice. Start being a whole lot more reasonable on workers’ comp and some other biz items, for instance, and pressure will most definitely build on the other side to cut a deal.

  52 Comments      


Our own “Freedom Caucus”

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* SJ-R

Democratic state Rep. Frank Mautino was approved Tuesday to become the state’s third auditor general.

Mautino, 53, of Spring Valley, will take over for Auditor General William Holland who plans to retire at the end of the year.

At a time of deep partisan divides in the legislature over the budget impasse, Mautino won support from lawmakers in both parties. The Senate approved his nomination by a 55-0 vote. The House followed shortly after voting 102-10.

All of the opposition came from House Republicans.

And the HGOPs who voted against Mautino are the most conservative, and often some of the most partisan in the chamber

Andersson, Batinick, Frese, Ives, Jesiel, McDermed, Morrison, Phillips, Wehrli, Keith Wheeler,

They’re also all fairly new to the Statehouse.

* Related…

* Dan and Amy interview State Representative Jeanne Ives (R-Wheaton) on AM 560

  60 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - IllinoisGO responds *** Yep, they’ve got them right where they want them

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* SJ-R

Rauner met privately with House Republicans for about an hour Tuesday afternoon. He declined comment after leaving the session.

Rep. Raymond Poe, R-Springfield, said Rauner told the Republicans “everything is on track and moving forward.” Poe said his sense is that the House Republicans are all still behind the governor. Asked if he thinks things are on track and moving forward, Poe said, “What I read and what you listen to seems to be a little different. We’re going to have to start negotiating at some point.”

* Politico

While behind closed doors, Gov. Rauner told the House Republican Caucus: “We are winning … Democrats are scared.” How does he figure? As low as Rauner’s favorability has fallen, he told members House Speaker Mike Madigan’s are worse, several sources with knowledge of the meeting tell POLITICO. […]

SCARED? “There’s a lot of anxiety out in the streets, more so in the Democratic districts,” a Republican insider told POLITICO. That’s largely due to the IllinoisGO PAC, funded by five well-heeled donors, including Helen Zell, the wife of billionaire Sam Zell . Some of them, including Mr. Zell, also happen to donate to and align with Rauner. The plan is to run primary opponents in a series of Democratic statehouse races - including against Madigan. There are signs that other Chicago House Democrats, including Ann Williams and Will Guzzardi are also targets.

STRATEGY - Sources familiar with the IllinoisGO strategy say a slate of candidates will be announced in the waning days of petition circulating, which runs Nov. 23-30.

Drafted to run - Democrats who are pro-charter and conservative on budget matters while left on social issues.

‘BLEED’ THEM - Running to the right of Dems in the city sounds like a recipe for failure but there’s a long game, says one Springfield insider familiar with the strategy. “Not win but bleed,” is the point here. “Bleed them and [Senate President John] Cullerton and Madigan have less money in the target general races they care about.” And there goes their two-chamber, supermajority.

Yes, the House Democrats are truly anguished. You can just feel their fear.

Right.

Also, all you’re going to accomplish by running somebody against MJM is to poke the bear and make him even more difficult to deal with in Springfield.

* And while I get the idea, it’s gonna take way more than primary opponents against Williams and Guzzardi (one of the hardest working people in show bidniss) to bleed Madigan dry

House Speaker Michael Madigan reported another $105,800 in 18 contributions, including $50,000 from the plumbers’ union Local 130, $10,800 from energy firm Ameren and $2,500 from red light camera firm American Traffic Solutions. The Democratic Party of Illinois fund Madigan controls got another $23,000-plus, including $15,000 from a Comcast political arm.

Since Jan. 1, Madigan’s personal campaign fund has collected $573,000 from 122 contributions, while the state party fund has received nearly $1.1 million through 262 contributions, according to State Board of Elections records.

*** UPDATE *** From IllinoisGO

Illinoisans for Gro wth and Opportunity (IllinoisGO) Executive Director Greg Goldner offered the following response to Natasha Korecki regarding her Politico report this morning:

“Since we haven’t spoken, and you haven’t spoken to any of our board members, there is no informed source as it relates to IllinoisGo’s political strategy.

Maybe so, but you can’t help but wonder if they’ll get their “political strategy” when a certain somebody gives it to them.

  104 Comments      


“Out of service”

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From James Hawker

  27 Comments      


NLCS open thread

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Despite myself, I really am starting to feel bad for you guys. Cheer up, Cub fans…


  66 Comments      


Dems will revisit Dorothy Brown slating

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Mary Ann Ahern

The Executive Committee of the Cook County Democratic Party will meet Wednesday to consider reversing its decision to slate Clerk of the Circuit Courts Dorothy Brown.

If the Executive Committee decides to no longer support Brown, it will need a full vote from all of the 80 members of the Central Committee, according to Manuel Galvan, a spokesperson for the Cook County Democratic Party.

Brown, who has held office for 15 years, is now facing a federal investigation, although she says the multiple published reports about it are just rumors. Cook County Democratic Party Chairman Joe Berrios told reporters Friday that Brown was questioned before the slating about whether she faced an investigation, and she told them no.

That last sentence right there is enough to revoke the slating. We’ll see.

  29 Comments      


AG’s office suggests Rauner attorneys committed “unlawful” act

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Illinois Policy Institute

The U.S. Supreme Court will soon decide whether the government can force government workers to pay union fees to keep their jobs when the court issues its ruling in Friedrichs v. California Teachers Association, a lawsuit brought by a group of California public-school teachers.

Many groups and individuals want the court to listen to their views on this issue. Last month, 25 amicus (“friend of the court”) briefs were filed in support of the plaintiffs, including an amicus brief from the Liberty Justice Center on behalf of three Illinois state workers who object to coerced union fees. And many people and groups will weigh in on the other side as well.

But there’s one person with an interest in this important case whose views Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan believes the court should not consider: Gov. Bruce Rauner, who filed an amicus brief on behalf of himself and a group of Illinois public-school employees who object to forced union fees.

After Rauner filed his brief, Madigan’s office took a most unusual action: It filed a letter with the Supreme Court insisting that Rauner had no authority to file a brief expressing his views on this issue without Madigan’s permission. The letter points to provisions of state law and state court decisions that say that only the attorney general may represent the state before the Supreme Court or represent the state or its officials in court cases in which the state “is the real party in interest.”

Madigan’s claim has some problems.

First, the idea that Rauner should have to go through Madigan to express his views on this issue is absurd. The governor is a citizen with First Amendment rights, and he is entitled to submit an amicus brief stating his views on the issue like anyone else. His brief made clear that it expressed his own views, not those of the state. And it’s well known that Rauner’s views on this issue – which favor workers’ freedom to choose whether to give money to a union – are the opposite of Madigan’s, whose campaigns have received substantial funding from government-worker unions that rely on coerced fees from government employees. In fact, as Rauner’s counsel pointed out in a response letter, Madigan has opposed Rauner on this very issue in more than one lawsuit.

The amicus brief is here. The AG’s initial response is here.

They’re absolutely correct that the “governor is a citizen with First Amendment rights, and he is entitled to submit an amicus brief stating his views on the issue like anyone else.”

I totally agree.

* But, as always, there’s an inconvenient fact that the Institute omitted. From the Solicitor General’s response about the governor’s state counsel, with emphasis added

Mr. Barclay and Mr. Murashko claim that Governor Rauner submitted his amicus brief “in his individual capacity. ” But the brief makes no such claim, and its contentions do not relate to the interests of the Governor personally. In fact, both the brief and the letter explain that Governor Rauner’s interest in this matter derives from the fact that, as Governor, he oversees the negotiation of collective bargaining agreements and supervises much of the State’s workforce. Moreover, it would be unlawful for Mr. Barclay and Mr. Murashko, while acting as state employees paid from public tax revenues, to represent Mr. Rauner in his individual capacity in any matter.

Notice that highlighted word? Do you think Illinois’ Solicitor General uses that word lightly - in a letter to the United States Supreme Court, no less?

Yikes.

* So, which is it? Are they perhaps breaking the law to write private briefs on state time, or are they representing the governor in his official capacity? It can’t be both, and the AG’s office says they can’t do the latter. Back to the Solicitor General

Finally, Mr . Barclay and Mr . Murashko are mistaken in their assertion that the First Amendment authorizes them to file briefs on behalf of the Illinois Governor or gives the Governor the authority to direct their filing. This Court has repeatedly held that the First Amendment protects private speech, not speech by government officials. See, e.g., Pleasant Grove City v. Summum, 555 U.S. 460, 467-68 (2009). The State of Illinois has the power to determine who speaks for the State in specific matters. For purposes of litigation, the State’s Constitution and statutes, see 15 ILCS 205/1, et seq., make the Illinois Attorney General the voice of the State and its officials.

…Adding… We have some (I believe) deliberately obtuse commenters who are trying to muddy the waters. So, click here and read the governor’s counsel admit that they submitted the amicus brief for Rauner “in his individual capacity,” and reveal that he is “expressing his own views.”

  161 Comments      


Question of the day

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Your one-word comment about the current state of the state? One word only, please, and make sure it’s at least close to being a real word. Thanks.

  215 Comments      


Emanuel tax break plan inches forward in House

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Just remember, a committee vote ain’t a floor vote. Tribune

Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s plan to double the homeowner exemption to blunt the impact of his proposed record property tax increase received initial approval from a House committee Tuesday, though it’s far from a done deal.

The measure, which would raise the exemption from $7,000 to $14,000 in the city, passed the panel 8-5 with all Democratic votes. Republicans and business groups opposed the plan, saying it unfairly placed the burden of the tax increase on businesses.

Counties also would be able to opt in to the tax exemption, though individual municipalities could not.

“This is a fine example of Chicago making its own rules and having their bad practice spread across the state,” said Michael Reever, a lobbyist for the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce. […]

The legislation could receive a full vote on the House floor Tuesday, though it faces a tough hurdle. It will take 71 votes to pass, but Democrats have just 70 active members pending the appointment Tuesday evening of a replacement for Rep. Esther Golar of Chicago, who died last month. Forcing Republicans to vote on the matter puts them in the tricky position of being on the record voting either for or against tax relief, though they could also vote “present.”

* Crain’s

During a hearing before the Revenue Committee in Springfield, Deputy Mayor Steve Koch, testifying for the city, suggested that Preckwinkle had dropped her opposition to the proposal on grounds that aging county computers could not be reprogrammed in a timely manner to handle it.

Preckwinkle’s “initial” statement to the Crain’s editorial board came before she had a chance to “talk with technical experts,” Koch told the committee. And in fact, the president now has “modified” her position, with the city having little doubt the technical tweaks can be made.

But Preckwinkle spokesman Frank Shuftan strongly disputes that.

Informed of Koch’s comments, Shuftan emailed me: “We have not modified our position. We sent the mayor a letter (on Oct. 16) expressing numerous concerns about his proposal. We did not receive a direct response, only a fact sheet and a copy of the bill.”

  11 Comments      


Franks upset at hearing no-shows

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Despite repeated requests from a House committee, state education officials refused to appear at a Tuesday hearing to explain why the state’s superintendent of schools continues to receive an overly generous pension perk funded with taxpayer dollars.

“The state’s credit is being downgraded yet again, the governor’s handpicked comptroller has unilaterally decided to skip a statutorily mandated pension payment, and our tax dollars are being managed by a tangled web of court orders. The situation in Springfield is a full-blown financial crisis, but amid all this, taxpayers can’t even get a straight answer as to why officials within this administration are ignoring the clear intent of a state law meant specifically to save taxpayer dollars and rein in extravagant retirement perks,” said state Rep. Jack Franks, chair of the House State Government Administration Committee. “These decisions are too important to be made in a back room. The State Board of Education and this administration need to step out of the shadows and allow a real open discussion on their use of public funds.”

Under a 2010 state law that passed with strong support from Democrats and Republicans to rein in rising pension costs, state employees hired after December 31, 2010, are under a pension plan more modest than employees hired before that time. But the law hasn’t stopped the Illinois State Board of Education (ISBE) from giving state Superintendent of Education Tony Smith an additional yearly stipend, which translates into larger taxpayer-funded contributions toward a taxpayer-funded pension for Smith. The stipend is in addition to Smith’s $225,000 state salary, taxpayers paying the employee and employer portion of his family’s health care and life insurance, 35 vacation days each year plus sick time and a $500 per month auto allowance amongst other perks.

At a hearing of the State Government Administration Committee in July, Franks urged ISBE to renegotiate Smith’s contract to remove the pension stipend. When the board announced in September that they would not reconsider the contract, Franks requested Smith and Chairman James Meeks return to discuss the board’s management of taxpayer funds.

“Democrats and Republicans agreed that the creation of a Tier II pension plan was necessary to help save taxpayer dollars and was an appropriate benefit plan for new employees. That’s why it troubles me to see ISBE so blatantly ignore the cost-saving intentions behind the law,” Franks said. “Taxpayers deserve to know why the board continues to use our tax dollars to pay a perk that no other private or public sector employees receive.”

  18 Comments      


Uber running new TV ad pushing for airport service

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Early this morning I received a text message from Brooke Anderson…

Good morning sunshine! We went up with a new ad today in Chi- check it out https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQq4WobWsxM&feature=youtu.be

For a fleeting moment, through the morning haze, I thought it was 2014 again and Brooke was touting a new Quinn campaign spot.

And then I clicked the link and remembered Brooke now works for Uber. Not a bad ad, either

  10 Comments      


The best laid plans…

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sun-Times

Hours after Mayor Rahm Emanuel announced a $250,000 gun buyback program on Monday, a downstate gun-rights advocate promised to come to Chicago to exploit it.

“We will be delighted to transact business once more with do-gooders in Chicago,” John Boch, executive director of Champaign-based Guns Save Life, said Monday.

Guns Save Life used Chicago’s 2012 gun buyback to embarrass city officials. That year, members said they turned in about 60 guns — some of them rusty and inoperable.

They received $100 MasterCard gift cards for each gun, which they used to buy ammunition for a National Rifle Association youth camp in Bloomington and bolt-action rifles to give away to campers.

  36 Comments      


MLB playoff open thread

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Have at it.

  57 Comments      


A bit much

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a blast e-mail…

Throughout history, oppressed peoples have used non-violent direct action and civil disobedience to win liberation. The Civil Rights movement in the U.S., under the leadership of Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., and the struggle for Indian independence, led by Mahatma Gandhi, come immediately to mind. Indeed, what Paul the Apostle called “a great cloud of witnesses” – too many to name here – has fought throughout the ages for justice for the oppressed and marginalized, despite great risk, persecution, and even death.

Wow.

They must be gearing up for some major action.

* The pitch…

Inspired by this cloud of witnesses, Moral Mondays Illinois will hold its 9th mass demonstration and civil disobedience to demand that Illinois tax corporations and the rich to fix the budget deficit instead of making deadly cuts to Illinois’ most vulnerable people:

Moral Mondays Illinois Returns

Monday, November 2, 2015

10:30 am SHARP at the Thompson Center, 100 W. Randolph St.

(At 10:45 we’ll march to an undisclosed location, so don’t be late.)

After a brief rally, we will march to a center of tremendous power and wealth where 50 of our sisters and brothers will put their bodies on the line in a civil disobedience designed to shut it down! We will demand that Illinois Governor Rauner and the legislature tax corporations and the rich so that the people may live and thrive.

Sigh.

  28 Comments      


Kirk stands by his man

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the same guy who advised China not to buy American bonds

While some Republicans have begun to criticize Gov. Bruce Rauner’s demands in the budget battle, U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk isn’t among them.

Kirk has close political ties to Rauner, being a staunch supporter of his campaign and having several former aides now working in Rauner’s administration. Kirk says he’s heard concerns about the state defaulting on its debt due to the impasse, and says he’s tried to put those fears to rest by talking up Rauner.

“When I was in New York, I get a lot of people asking about when is Illinois going to default, and they were asking questions about an inevitability about some sort of financial collapse here,” Kirk said. “I wanted to make sure people that knew that we had a reformist governor, and if his reforms go through, we would have a much better financial shot.”

We’re not going to default, so he’s right about that part.

  14 Comments      


Because… Madigan

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* He does have a point…


…Adding… Like I said, he does have a point. From comments…

To be fair, it was ironic seeing Madigan lecture Rauner about credit downgrades yesterday after supporting pension holidays, decades of borrowing, passing consecutive unbalanced budgets and years of downgrades.

  56 Comments      


Comptroller now says quote was “misreported,” but still wants Rauner to stop whacking unions

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* WTTW

There were also reports that one of [Gov. Bruce Rauner’s] top lieutenants—the person he picked to head the state’s comptroller’s office, Leslie Munger—had also broke with him and said that he should abandon the union issues and pass a budget.

Today, she said that that quote was misreported. She and another top GOP official came to the governor’s defense.

“I think there are solutions, but we need two sides talking,” Munger said. “But right now we don’t have two sides talking, and I would put more blame on the legislature because they started with a budget that was $4 billion overspent.”

* From that story

Asked if Gov. Rauner should stop targeting unions during a news conference in Moline Friday, Ms. Munger, said, “I don’t think it’s productive, I think we’ve got to work together, personally.

“I don’t think it helps to pit people against one another, to be completely honest,” she said. “I believe we need to be all working together to solve the problems in Illinois.”

* Back to yesterday

“The things that I support are things like (changes in) workers’ comp and tort reforms. I don’t know what impact that has on weakening any unions, honestly. It really is just helping our businesses be more competitive with neighboring states. And actually the union members I talk to are looking for good jobs in Illinois,” Munger said.

“With respect to property tax reform and holding those, I do believe there are ways to do that if people would get together and talk. There are ways that don’t impact unions at all,” she said. “We have hundreds of unfunded mandates in this state. We can give up on a lot of those. It would give our municipalities the flexibility they need to manage a freeze on property taxes instead and yet still make all their commitments.”

Later, Munger was asked directly about the union provisions that Rauner wants and Democrats in the legislature oppose.

“I’d like to see us focus on, like I spoke before, ways around that. I’d like to see us find a way to freeze property taxes. I think there are alternatives to do it,” she said.

  18 Comments      


*** LIVE COVERAGE *** Overtime session

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive


  6 Comments      


RNUG examines Rauner’s latest pension reform push

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From yesterday

During a town hall meeting in Decatur, Illinois’ Governor repeated his call for structural reforms and a balanced budget and also laid out a few details about how he wants to reform pensions. Governor Bruce Rauner said there must be changes to the pension system and said he has a constitutional fix. His idea includes a new deal moving forward.

“People can keep their old deal if they want but then their salary increases don’t go into the pension. Or they can have their salary increases count towards their pension if they get into a new deal.”

To encourage workers to enter a potential new tier, the Governor said there would be incentives offered. If the plan is passed by the General Assembly and implemented, Rauner said there would be big savings.

“And if we do that we can save $2 billion for you as taxpayers.”

The Governor said his administration has researched the proposal and said it is constitutional.

* Our resident pension expert RNUG (who used to post under the longer name “Retired Non-Union Guy”) was dealing with some family health issues and didn’t comment until last night. Since many of you probably missed it, here, with some minor edits for things like spelling corrections, is his initial analysis

All,

Rich tried to get me earlier but I’ve been dealing with a medical issue with an elderly mother-in-law.

I haven’t read any comments, but I did catch the story about the remarks in Decatur either yesterday or today. I just ignored it because it sounds like yet another more or less coercive choice going forward. Given the Pension Clause and the clear SB-1 ruling, unless it contains a complete “keep what you’ve got option”, it won’t pass Contract Law logic as consideration.

Yes, you could make such an offer along the lines of what Rauner suggested and bribe some people into taking cash and moving to a new tier and have it be legal, but it probably won’t be the existing “Tier 1″ people who take the deal. They will most likely say “thanks but no thanks, we’ll keep what we have” and the courts will back them up. In the past, the courts have mostly shot down any change (age, years of service) that, when applied to the formula, would have reduced a pension.

I get where Rauner is coming from. He thinks yet to be earned benefits can be modified; the courts have disagreed. Eric Madiar, when charged with finding a loophole in the Pension Clause, could only come up with the “consideration” possibility in contract law. But anyone who spends any time researching contract modification by consideration will find it has to be totally voluntary.

And, as it stands now, the threat of not having mythical future salary increases included in the pension calculation may not be much of a threat. Rauner wants to hold the unions to no raises; a lot of the Merit Comp people haven’t have a raise in 13 years. In the case of SERS retirees, the Final Average Compensation is based on the highest consecutive 48 months in the last 120 months (10 years) of service. So if you aren’t getting raises anyway, it won’t make a bit of difference.

* He then responded to some comments by others

== Layoff the public employees immediately ==

Aside from union contracts, there is the little thing called “Civil Service” that protects almost all State employees, both union and Merit Comp

== Are we really going to go through this process again? ==

Sounds like it. The Rauner crew may want to be careful what they wish for. The last time the IL SC stopped short of ordering specific pension fund payments …

== It is going to take major backbone to deal with our pension mess in a fair, responsible and constitutional manner. ==

Fair - keep your contracted promise

Responsible - pay what is owed

Constitutional - “Tier 2″ was the reform

The only things left to do with the pensions are to (a) restructure the debt (longer ramp or borrow the $110B in the markets at lower than the assumed rates of return), (b) probably shift the normal pension cost on the local school districts AND (c) come up with revenue to pay off the debt.

== by constitutional amendment, almost anything would be constitutional, just extremely difficult to enact. ==

Even by constitutional amendment it wouldn’t get rid of the existing “pension contract” or the $110B debt owed to the pension funds. If you can’t get rid of the $110B (or a major portion of it), there is no reason to amend the constitution or “reform” pensions.

== Would you lend your money to this state? ==

Sure; they’ve never missed a bond or pension payment in about 100 years or so.

== Eric Zorn: Rich is right that this is far from a new idea. Eric Madiar, a lawyer who is Cullerton’s pension expert and widely considered an honest broker in these matters has looked carefully at the case law and thinks it can pass constitutional muster — I did a column on it recently http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/zorn/ct-tough-choice-pension-reform-perspec-0909-20150908-column.html ==

I remember reading it and disagreeing with it.

== How about trying this: no overtime, unused sick days or vacation days gets to be applied toward retirement. ==

At best, maybe. See the various decisions that say (to paraphrase a bit) “enhancements granted by the legislature can’t be diminished once granted.”

== What Justice Burke was saying was that the state had options to meet the obligation. Taxes etc. she never suggested that there is an out or a way to legally diminish pensions. Read the opinion, it is quite clear in its inference. Raise revenue and pay the debt. ==

-Old and in the Way- is on it. The other thing in the decision was a veiled threat to revisit the “hands off on how it is funded” stance in the IFT decision.

As I said at 8:21pm, Rauner and company want to be very careful what they wish for. They could end up in a real world of hurt if the IL SC decides they’ve heard enough attempted end runs and orders actuarially based annual funding, but doesn’t (and they won’t) order a tax hike.

== Wordslinger: RNUG, they’re softening up the ground — again — to try and bank $2 billion in “savings” to the pension fund contribution. It’s just like the “savings” proposed in February. See, if you call it “savings,” that sounds so much better than the short-funding that was done in the past. The effect is the same — more unfunded liability — but you can spin it to the willfully gullible. ==

It’s a bit more than that. Aside from another attempt to bank fictitious savings, it’s also some cover to try to sneak smaller pension changes / diminishments through the GA while we are all distracted by the big attack.

We all need to keep a wary eye out for various “nose of the camel under the tent” provisions tacked onto needed bills; just another variation on the Rauner “poison pill” attempts on the union.

== Jessica: Madiar is obviously the guy to talk to about constitutionality of this, but there is case law that suggests this is constitutional. See Peters v. City of Spfld. (http://cgfa.ilga.gov/Upload/2008%20JANUARY%20Handbook%20of%20Illinois%20Pension%20Case%20Law.pdf). Court ruled that future salary increases are not constitutionally protected. The problem is it doesn’t save much and if you make the option for them to move to really unattractive, no one will take it. So it’s not an alternative to a tax increase to be able to amortize the debt. But if it’s enough face saving to let republicans vote for a tax increase, do this! ==

Jessica,

To split hairs (which the law does), the court ruled future increases are not protected. But my memory, without re-reading it, is that pension benefits do have to accrue for any future raises that do occur.

In other words, Rauner can not give raises, but if he does give raises, they have to be counted in the pension calculation. Rauner wants the raises to not count towards the pension unless you take a reduced pension. Not quite the same thing as Peters.

== What does Rauner do about TRS then? Since he (kind of) cannot control what a district pays teachers. ==

My assumption is he plans a “starve the beast” approach even though he is for more school spending. If the State were to transfer the “normal cost” of the pensions to the local districts at the same time the State caps property taxes, the money to pay the pensions would have to come from somewhere. At that point, the only obvious choice for the school district would be to cut out raises and lower their salary costs, either by firing some teaching staff or trying to impose salary cuts on all teaching staff. Such a move, if logically analyzed, might also drive more local school district consolidations in order to achieve an economy of scale and eliminate some duplication of management overhead … but I’m not going to hold my breath knowing the psychological investment small towns have in their schools / sports teams.

* And my favorite

Anybody else reminded of the Verizon commercial that takes the satellite providers to task for offering the same old deal in new language?

  98 Comments      


Today’s number: 15,000

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Belleville News-Democrat writes about the governor’s emergency rules that slash the state’s childcare assistance program

The reason for the new rules is the budget impasse between the Democratic-led General Assembly and Republican governor. This fiscal year began July 1, but a budget deal is still not in place. Rauner employed the new childcare provisions after the stalemate crossed into the new fiscal year. Rauner’s office called the rule changes responsible.

“One of the governor’s first actions in office was to save childcare from the deliberate underfunding by the Democratic majority in the last fiscal year. Now, the administration is taking steps to responsibly manage the state’s finances due to the $4 billion budget hole created by the legislature this year. The governor’s reforms will free up resources to help the most vulnerable and grow the economy,” said Catherine Kelly, spokesperson for Gov. Rauner.

True in part, but only in small part.

* I asked Emily Miller (no relation) at Voices for Illinois Children to respond…

Hi Rich-

I’ve seen the standard response the Governor’s office releases to defend his child care cuts in a few newspapers now. I think it’s important to deconstruct the statement because it contains so many misstatements and misrepresentation of fact that letting it stand on its own is a huge disservice to Illinois children and families.

Here goes:

    “One of the governor’s first actions in office was to save childcare from the deliberate underfunding by the Democratic majority in the last fiscal year.”

Before Governor Rauner signed a bill to ensure the child care system remained solvent for FY15, in February of 2015 during his budget address he proposed $135 million in child care cuts. The “cost savings” were achieved by increasing co-pays, eliminating child care for all children over the age of five, and discontinuing all relative care.

So, both before and after the Governor “saved” child care by funding it for FY15, he actively tried to destroy it for FY16. Unfortunately for low and middle-income working families, he is currently succeeding.

    “Now, the administration is taking steps to responsibly manage the state’s finances due to the $4 billion budget hole created by the legislature this year.”

When lawmakers allowed personal and corporate income taxes to roll back on January 1, 2015, Illinois lost between $5 billion and $6 billion in annual revenue - not $4 billion. That was a move encouraged by then-candidate Rauner.

Since then, both the governor and the General Assembly have failed to restore the revenue required to fully fund a year-long budget.

Despite the lack of both appropriation authority and available funds, the executive branch has instructed providers of state services to continue to provide services at last year’s levels. In other cases, the state has failed to make good on payments for existing contracts. In all cases, outside of consent decrees and federal pass-through funds, zero state dollars are being spent on many critical state priorities, meaning that the state is paying with IOUs that are adding to our back-log of unpaid bills.

That is not a responsible way to conduct business, and that is why there is a budget hole.

    “The governor’s reforms will free up resources to help the most vulnerable and grow the economy”

The Department of Human Services identified exactly zero economic benefits attributable to Governor Rauner’s child care cuts when it testified before the Joint Committee on Administrative Rules this summer.

The administration gave no written financial justification for the child care cuts, and they failed to produce any numbers regarding the amount each of the cuts would “save.” Further, the administration admitted during the hearing that they did no research regarding the economic impact of the cuts on the community—a step that would have been taken if the real goal were economic development. Further, when asked what the impact of the cuts on families would be, the answer was delivered by the then-Director Linda Saterfield, who said the cuts are “devastating.” She has since been replaced by the administration.

In fact, the “most vulnerable” families in Illinois have been hit the hardest by the Governor’s child care cuts. As Voices has pointed out before, the Governor’s cuts mean that a single mom of one child entering the work force can only access child care assistance in Illinois if she makes less than 50% of the federal poverty level, or $664 per month ($8.25 per hour for 20 hours per week.) At least 15,000 children were denied child care by the end of September, based on historic data. Before the Rauner cuts, a single mom of one who earned up to 185% of the federal poverty level, or $2,456 per month (about $15 an hour working 40 hours per week), had access to child care assistance.

That means it makes more financial sense for parents to stay home with their child than to get a job that supports the family. That makes no economic sense at all.

Discuss.

  43 Comments      


When the pot is actually the kettle

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rep. Jack Franks on Comptroller Leslie Munger’s decision not to make November’s state pension payment

“It’s illegal,” said state Rep. Jack Franks, a Democrat from Marengo. “I helped draft the law. We have to pay this — there’s no discretion. So for her to knowingly not pay this, she’s violating the law.”

But as long as all the payments are made by the end of the fiscal year, delaying a payment is not illegal

The comptroller’s office argued it wasn’t at odds with the law because the office wasn’t skipping payments all together — a past practice that largely contributed to the more than $100 billion in unfunded pension liability facing the state.

“Really the monthly payment is more of an internal matter. We’re not skipping payments, we’re merely delaying them,” said Munger spokesman Rich Carter.

* This suggestion by Rep. Franks, however, would be illegal

“She ought to consider not paying any of the state workers, including the General Assembly.”

State workers are being paid because of a judicial order. And Franks and other legislators are being paid because of a continuing appropriation.

Man, what a pointless story that was.

  24 Comments      


Compromise isn’t surrender

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Kerry Lester caught up with Big Jim

“This is the worst position the state of Illinois has ever been in,” said former Gov. Jim Thompson, the state’s longest-serving governor from 1977 to 1991 and namesake of the state government building fellow Republican Rauner wants to put up for private auction.

“I agree that it’s going to take some difficult negotiations to solve this,” Thompson said in a phone interview with the Daily Herald. “That’s the responsibility of the governor and the legislature. They will have to do their jobs.” […]

However, he conceded, “running the government is not like running a business.”

“What I’m saying is both sides have to sit down and look at what they’ve requested. And if it’s clear the other side can’t deliver those, even if they wanted to, then they have to negotiate on the basis of what each side can deliver.”

That last sentence is just basic governance, but it seems far beyond the grasp of some folks, including Tribune editorial board members

He had no role in creating the twin messes he’s trying to fix — the ruined state finances and the Illinois economy that reflects Springfield’s grave anti-employer biases. Rauner gets enough grief from Democrats who set Illinois on its disastrous course. He had to be surprised to read that a Republican who had supported him now wants him to surrender to what little the Democratic defenders of the status quo would accept.

What’s doable with those folks? Not enough to make Illinois prosper again.

Excuse me, but the state’s finances are currently in ruins, and the governor has played a very concrete role in today’s mess. He wasn’t sworn in yesterday.

And only extremist radicals would claim that two former Republican governors want Gov. Rauner to just give up and “surrender,” particularly since so many of the governor’s own economic “reform” demands are radical in and of themselves, despite the Tribune editorial page’s best and repeated efforts to skim over the troubling details.

…Adding… MrJM in comments…

Shorter Tribune editorial: Don’t stop the hurricane when the levies are about to break!

  62 Comments      


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Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

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