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Stu Rothenberg moves CD13 race to “Lean Republican”

Friday, Aug 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

While political reporters, analysts and party strategists argue over whether there is or is not a wave approaching, one thing is clear: it’s an extremely difficult landscape for Democratic candidates.

Candidates, party committees, and outside groups are polling dozens of House races as they formalize their fall ad strategies. And increasingly the news ranges from good to great for Republicans, and very few competitive races trending toward Democrats. […]

Illinois’s 13th District. Former Madison County Judge Ann Callis started the cycle as one of Democrats’ top recruits. But her challenge to Rep. Rodney Davis (R) just isn’t materializing. The congressman is in a very strong position and Gov. Pat Quinn is proving to be an anvil around the neck of Downstate Democratic candidates. We’re moving the race from Toss-Up/Tilt Republican to Lean Republican.

I don’t think he’s far off there. You?

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Rothenberg tips race slightly to Rauner

Tuesday, Aug 5, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From Stu Rothenberger’s outfit…

Democrats’ best strategy appears to be to turn GOP nominee Bruce Rauner, a wealthy businessman, into “Mitt Romney on steroids.” It could work, but to call this race a tossup right now would be understating Quinn’s standing in the race.

We’re changing the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating of the race from pure Tossup to Tossup/Tilts Republican, giving the GOP a narrow advantage to capture the state in November.

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Cook moves Enyart district from “Lean D” to “Toss-up”

Friday, Aug 1, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Cook Political report has shifted its projections to favor Republicans in 17 congressional districts and shifted ratings to favor Democrats in just four. Illinois’ 12th District has been shifted a notch away from the Democrats…

Several polls show Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn well behind in this Downstate district, and that has Enyart backers worried. Democrats portray GOP state Rep. Mike Bost as “Meltdown Mike” for his infamous tirade on the state House floor, but Bost has worked hard to cast Enyart as “Beltway Bill” and actually outraised him in the second quarter of this year.

Some Democrats complain Enyart needs to work harder to raise his visibility in his district, otherwise Quinn could drag him down. Voter anxiety about the EPA could also play a role in a district where coal is a major industry. Private polling shows the race extremely tight, and Democrats may need to air footage of Bost’s meltdown to cast him as too hotheaded for Congress.

I’ll disagree with that last statement. If this develops into a truly anti-incumbent year (and it sure looks that way), then sending an angry hothead to Congress might be just what the voters want.

Your thoughts?

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