* Two prognosticating outfits moved their ratings since Tuesday night. Roll Call…

It’s clear that Rauner has problems within the Republican base, a dynamic that no statewide GOP candidate can afford. When Republican Sen. Mark Kirk ran for re-election in 2016, he got sideways with grass-roots Republicans by opposing Trump and lost to Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth, 55 percent to 40 percent. Pritzker, who has ties to infamous Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, certainly isn’t a perfect candidate. But he’s still a Democrat in a Democratic state in a Democratic year. The biggest winner in the race might be local television stations, as two mega-rich nominees battle in what could be the most expensive gubernatorial race in history.

We’re changing our rating from Tilts Democratic to Leans Democratic.

And don’t forget that national blue wave which is still building out there.

* Sabato’s Crystal Ball…

Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-IL) endured a difficult night on Tuesday. Although he won his party’s primary to earn a reelection shot in November, the contest in some ways confirmed his overall weakness as the most endangered incumbent Republican governor facing the voters in 2018. As such, the Crystal Ball is moving the Illinois gubernatorial contest from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, the first time in the 2018 cycle that we have rated an incumbent U.S. senator, U.S. House member, or governor as an underdog for reelection. Rauner’s vulnerabilities are two-fold: his party base is not solidly behind him — the GOP primary made this abundantly clear — and he faces an energized Democratic Party in what is typically a blue state.

* Related…

* Democrats giddy after Illinois primary showing : More than 1.2 million people voted in Tuesday’s Democratic primary, a record number in more than a decade of midterms. Billionaire J.B. Pritzker won the primary for governor with almost 575,000 votes, defeating his closest rival by 20 points. Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner received about 360,000 votes in a GOP primary where he eked out a win over a conservative state lawmaker. Pritzker said Wednesday the results are an indication of how motivated Democrats are. He says the enthusiasm means he stands a good chance of beating Rauner.

* Is Bruce Rauner toast? In the span of one day, Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner’s fortunes went from bad to worse. He was already widely considered to be the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the country. Then came Tuesday’s Illinois primary, where he spent $17 million in TV ads but barely squeaked out a victory against a nearly unknown state legislator. With Democrats already uniting behind the free-spending billionaire who will lead their ticket in the fall, Illinois Republicans are wondering: After Tuesday’s weak showing, does Rauner even have a prayer of winning reelection in November? … “The governor clearly has a lot of work to do but what he cannot do is focus on the past,” Trover said. “He’s going to have to look to what unites the party and for Bruce, that’ll be [Democratic Party Chairman and state House Speaker] Mike Madigan…you’ve already seen it today, Bruce’s message to voters will be: ‘I am the only thing standing between you and Mike Madigan.‘”