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Campaign roundup: Kirk, Foster, Weller districts “leaning Dem”

Monday, Nov 3, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Evans & Novak Political Report has moved Republican Congressman Mark Kirk’s race to “Leaning Democratic.” No explanation was offered.

ENPR has freshman Democrat Bill Foster’s race against Republican Jim Oberweis as “Leaning Democratic” as well as Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson’s contest against Republican Martin Ozinga.

* Mike Murray takes a look at the Oberweis vs. Foster race and finds Oberweis coming up short…

Independent groups have seen the writing on the wall, as $4.7 million was spent on the competitive special election. However, nothing has been has been spent for the fall rematch, a clear indicator that Foster is the favorite.

Perhaps the best indicator of Foster’s victory comes from Oberweis own pocketbook. In spite of his rhetoric, Oberweis has only contributed $475,000 to his fall campaign compared to the $2 million he shelled out for the special election.

* Adding to the GOP’s problems, early voting was huge in Illinois and election day may set a record…

Election officials counting ballots throughout Illinois say the state has set a new record of more than 821,000 early votes cast.

Authorities say that includes almost 484,000 early voters in Chicago and suburban Cook County.

The previous state high was set during the February primaries, when about 220,000 people voted.

Cook County Clerk David Orr says election judges alarmed by large crowds called fire marshals to several polling places Thursday.

They called out the fire marshalls? Whoa.

* More…

Illinois election officials hope that record turnout in advance of the actual Election Day means shorter lines on Tuesday, when many expect turnout to be about 80 percent.

Still, there’s worry that many of the state’s remaining 6.9 million registered voters could clog the polls.

About 220,000 people cast ballots before Election Day in the February primaries in Illinois.

* But Steve Sauerberg bravely soldiers on, albeit in a boat aimlessly floating up the River Nile…

One poll of 800 likely voters released this week by Maryland-based Research 2000 found that [Democratic US Sen. Dick Durbin] had a 59 percent to 34 percent lead, 7 percent undecided. But Sauerberg is undaunted: “Our internal polls are not as bad as some other polls.'’

Operative phrase: “Not as bad.”

* PI has posted an excerpt from a CBS News report on veterans running for congress that features Illinois Democratic candidate Jill Morgenthaler…

* Walking precincts can be scary at times, or it could just involve navigating through a maze of Halloween decorations…

Life as a campaign foot soldier can be brutal.

Doors slammed in your face; shouting; aggressive dogs. And for April Wong Loi Sing, loud, scary Halloween prop noises.

That’s what the married mom of four and Marty Ozinga volunteer encountered Saturday morning after wading through a front yard of elaborate Halloween decorations, searching for a front door to knock on.

“The homeowner and I had a big laugh afterward,” she said, after a loud, high-pitched noise piped into the front yard had her screaming with shock and fright.

* More stuff…

* NEW: The Cellphone Effect

* Peraica and Alvarez talk tough at churches

* 20,462 people would have been excluded without grace period registration

* Election excitement 1 day away

* Vote or give up your right to complain

* Elections a miracle: Before you make fun of senior citizens who act as judges on Election Day, or anyone else who serves in that capacity, I suggest you take one of the training sessions offered free of charge by the office of Cook County Clerk David Orr. Those judges earn every doughnut they eat on Election Day.

* Candidates deserve our thanks, if not our votes

* About voting in Illinois

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Kirk a tossup? Plus: Oberweis goes negative

Tuesday, Oct 28, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* CQ Politics has switched its rating on the Kirk vs. Seals congressional race to “No Clear Favorite”…

• Illinois’ 10th District (New Rating: No Clear Favorite. Previous Rating: Leans Republican)

The re-rating of this race isn’t due to any slipup by four-term moderate Republican Rep. Mark Steven Kirk , who hasn’t made any missteps in the rematch of the 2006 race in which he defeated Democrat Dan Seals by 7 percentage points. Kirk is exceptionally well-funded, with $4.8 million raised through Oct. 15, and he’s touting a voting record that is among the most independent-minded among House Republicans. History also shows that many rematch challengers do worse on their second try.

But there is plenty of evidence to suggest that Seals is running closer to Kirk than he did two years ago in a slightly Democratic-leaning swing district that includes some affluent suburbs north of Chicago. Seals began his second campaign not long after he lost his first, which helps explain why he’s raised more than $3 million, one of the highest totals in the nation for a challenging candidate. The DCCC, which gave Seals’ 2006 campaign very limited assistance, has spent more than $1 million on this year’s race. And if there is a coattails effect anywhere from Obama’s presidential bid, it should be in this district in the Illinois senator’s home state — which even in 2004 favored Democrat John Kerry for president over Bush by 5 percentage points.

I don’t know if they’ll run it or not, but after this morning’s event, WBBM Radio asked me for my surprise of the night for next Tuesday. I was caught a bit off guard and pointed to a possible Kirk upset. There are other possibilities, however, so perhaps you can discuss them below.

* The DCCC has a new TV ad attacking Kirk and tying him to President Bush…

* But the Politico names Kirk as one of its “stand-out centrists of 2008″…

Mark Kirk of Illinois: A military man and leader of the Republican Main Street Partnership, this congressman from the suburbs of Chicago has the unenviable task this year of running against a charismatic African-American challenger. But Kirk has shown the mettle to stand up to Bush and Tom DeLay and the vision to set out a “suburban agenda” that is “pro-defense, pro-personal responsibility, pro-environment and pro-science.”

* After saying he wouldn’t do it, Jim Oberweis is now running a negative TV ad. The ad highlights his disagreement with Democratic incumbent Bill Foster on the bailout plan. So far, I’m told, this is just on cable TV, but he also bought radio time…

* Democrat Jill Morgenthaler’s new TV ad…

* Republican Aaron Schock’s leadership PAC got a writeup in CQ…

Another would-be House member who has been donating to party candidates is Illinois Republican Aaron Schock, a 27-year-old state representative who set up a “leadership” political action committee after easily winning a primary election in February in the state’s Peoria-centered 18th District. Schock, who is heavily favored to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Ray LaHood , started cutting checks of $5,000 apiece to non-incumbent Republicans earlier this month, including several who are certain to win and therefore vote in freshman class leadership elections.

These young guns are part of a small and very slowly growing set of politicians who have presaged leadership potential by capitalizing on electoral safety and fundraising prowess to raise their profiles before they take the oath of office.

Whether the early giving turns pre-frosh candidates into political players or simply reflects acumen that will serve their ambitions later on, it is a tactic that has been employed by fast-rising stars in the past.

* More…

* 16th District congressional candidates go nuclear on energy

* Greenberg again attacks Bean on financial ties, economy

* 6 Republicans stump for Callahan

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Congressional roundup

Friday, Oct 24, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Larry has Charlie Cook’s change of ranking in the 10th CD…

IL-10 Mark Kirk Lean Republican to Toss Up

Most private polling shows Kirk up in the single digits, but that’s not anywhere near a comfortable position for a Republican incumbent in a district like this one and in a year like 2008. The key to this race may be the extent to which the DCCC or Democrat Dan Seals use taped endorsement messages from Sen. Barack Obama to get over the top.

Democrats would love nothing more than to knock Kirk out before he could become a serious Senate candidate in 2010 if Obama wins and an appointed Democratic successor is up for a full term. While Kirk can no longer be considered a clear favorite in the race, he remains in slightly better shape than some other GOP moderates in marginal districts.

GOP internals reportedly have Kirk up about 4 or 5 points. A Democratic poll is said to have Kirk down by a point. If there’s a big Obama wave, Kirk could very well get swept away. Remember, however, that there are thousands and thousands of ticket-splitters in that district.

* Immigrants appear to be a big part of the electorate in the 10th District…

Immigrants could be a deciding voting bloc in at least eight Illinois congressional races where they make up more than 12 percent of the population, according to a report released Thursday by an advocacy group.

Among the tightest races mentioned by the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights is the 10th District, where Democrat Dan Seals is challenging Republican Rep. Mark Kirk. Experts say the longtime GOP district, which covers portions of Lake and Cook counties, could be trending Democratic based on recent presidential elections.

About 19 percent of the 10th District’s population is made up of foreign-born residents who are now U.S. citizens and at least 18 years old, making them eligible to vote, the report says. The group did not know how many of those individuals are registered to vote on Nov. 4.

* Meanwhile, Repub Martin Ozinga claims new polling shows a tight race, but he released no actual numbers to the Homer Horizon…

Ozinga’s campaign… now claims they are just two points behind Halvorson after they conducted a recent survey. Earlier polls had Halvorson leading by as many as 17 points.

* The AP has a story today about the role of Rod Blagojevich’s image in the Ozinga vs. Debbie Halvorson race…

Republican businessman Marty Ozinga repeatedly has knocked Democratic state Sen. Debbie Halvorson, of Crete, for being a bigwig in Blagojevich’s Democratic-controlled state government. But she has tried to turn the tables on Ozinga - with help from the DCCC.

Halvorson has criticized Ozinga for previously donating to the governor’s campaign - primarily a $10,000 donation in 2005. To drive home the point, the DCCC funded an ad that called Ozinga “the last guy you’d send to clean up Washington” and featured a sheepish picture of Blagojevich.

Blagojevich spokesman Lucio Guerrero said the governor is a convenient bad guy for candidates in the heat of an election.

“If people are frustrated, they take it out on the person that they know,” Guerrero said. “He’s the top guy, so it’s him.”

* Ozinga organized a counter-protest to the NRA’s endorsement announcement of Halvorson…

As reporters, NRA members and Halvorson supporters entered the Downers Grove Sportsmen’s Club for Halvorson’s press conference, they had to drive through a group of sign-toting Ozinga supporters.

The NRA was not impressed…

“Debbie has a record; she earned this rating,” said Todd Vandermyde, a legislative liaison with the NRA. “Marty Ozinga can talk all he wants, but (he) is an untested quantity. All we know is what he says.”

* And now Halvorson is mocking Ozinga on guns via a YouTube “ad”…

* In another race, Public Citizen has filed a complaint alleging that Peter Roskam misused the franking privilege…

The House’s franking commission is investigating whether Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.) violated franking rules, after the nonprofit group Public Citizen filed a complaint Thursday.

Members are prohibited from sending out official, unsolicited mail 90 days before an election. But Public Citizen alleges that Roskam sent out several brochures to his constituents after the Aug. 6 cutoff. […]

Roskam’s office didn’t immediately return calls for comment Thursday, but a spokeswoman for the Republicans on the House Administration Committee — which oversees the franking commission — said Public Citizen will have to prove that Roskam sent out more than 500 pieces of official mail. If it’s less than 500, the mail would not reach the threshold for a “mass mailing” and thus not fall under franking rules, other than for content. […]

“Right up into October, just weeks before the election, voters have been receiving two-page color mailers paid for by taxpayers, with Peter Roskam’s name splashed all over them,” Joan Claybrook, president of Public Citizen, said in a news release. “Taxpayers should not be footing the bill to advertise Roskam’s candidacy for Congress.”

The full complaint is here. [h/t: PI]

The Daily Herald endorsed Roskam’s opponent today.

* Republican Judy Biggert’s Democratic opponent has an unusual new TV ad…

…Adding… Biggert’s TV ads can be found at this link.

* More…

* GOP open seats fertile ground for House Democrats

* Voter registration hits record levels

* Cook County has more than 100,000 early votes

* Democratic U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean takes it easy against GOP challenger Steve Greenberg

* GOP challenger blasts Bean on mortgage legislation

* Our pick for Congress: Bean in 8th District

* 6th District campaign gets hotter

* For Congress: Retain Kirk in 10th District

* For Congress: Retain Foster in 14th District

* Our pick: Retain Manzullo in 16th District

* 2 Ill. races get large boosts from ind. groups

* Cong. Manzullo and his 16th CD Democratic Challenger, Robert Abboud on Cable this Saturday and Streaming

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