* CQ Politics has switched its rating on the Kirk vs. Seals congressional race to “No Clear Favorite”…
• Illinois’ 10th District (New Rating: No Clear Favorite. Previous Rating: Leans Republican)
The re-rating of this race isn’t due to any slipup by four-term moderate Republican Rep. Mark Steven Kirk , who hasn’t made any missteps in the rematch of the 2006 race in which he defeated Democrat Dan Seals by 7 percentage points. Kirk is exceptionally well-funded, with $4.8 million raised through Oct. 15, and he’s touting a voting record that is among the most independent-minded among House Republicans. History also shows that many rematch challengers do worse on their second try.
But there is plenty of evidence to suggest that Seals is running closer to Kirk than he did two years ago in a slightly Democratic-leaning swing district that includes some affluent suburbs north of Chicago. Seals began his second campaign not long after he lost his first, which helps explain why he’s raised more than $3 million, one of the highest totals in the nation for a challenging candidate. The DCCC, which gave Seals’ 2006 campaign very limited assistance, has spent more than $1 million on this year’s race. And if there is a coattails effect anywhere from Obama’s presidential bid, it should be in this district in the Illinois senator’s home state — which even in 2004 favored Democrat John Kerry for president over Bush by 5 percentage points.
I don’t know if they’ll run it or not, but after this morning’s event, WBBM Radio asked me for my surprise of the night for next Tuesday. I was caught a bit off guard and pointed to a possible Kirk upset. There are other possibilities, however, so perhaps you can discuss them below.
* The DCCC has a new TV ad attacking Kirk and tying him to President Bush…
* But the Politico names Kirk as one of its “stand-out centrists of 2008″…
Mark Kirk of Illinois: A military man and leader of the Republican Main Street Partnership, this congressman from the suburbs of Chicago has the unenviable task this year of running against a charismatic African-American challenger. But Kirk has shown the mettle to stand up to Bush and Tom DeLay and the vision to set out a “suburban agenda” that is “pro-defense, pro-personal responsibility, pro-environment and pro-science.”
* After saying he wouldn’t do it, Jim Oberweis is now running a negative TV ad. The ad highlights his disagreement with Democratic incumbent Bill Foster on the bailout plan. So far, I’m told, this is just on cable TV, but he also bought radio time…
* Democrat Jill Morgenthaler’s new TV ad…
* Republican Aaron Schock’s leadership PAC got a writeup in CQ…
Another would-be House member who has been donating to party candidates is Illinois Republican Aaron Schock, a 27-year-old state representative who set up a “leadership” political action committee after easily winning a primary election in February in the state’s Peoria-centered 18th District. Schock, who is heavily favored to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Ray LaHood , started cutting checks of $5,000 apiece to non-incumbent Republicans earlier this month, including several who are certain to win and therefore vote in freshman class leadership elections.
These young guns are part of a small and very slowly growing set of politicians who have presaged leadership potential by capitalizing on electoral safety and fundraising prowess to raise their profiles before they take the oath of office.
Whether the early giving turns pre-frosh candidates into political players or simply reflects acumen that will serve their ambitions later on, it is a tactic that has been employed by fast-rising stars in the past.
Most private polling shows Kirk up in the single digits, but that’s not anywhere near a comfortable position for a Republican incumbent in a district like this one and in a year like 2008. The key to this race may be the extent to which the DCCC or Democrat Dan Seals use taped endorsement messages from Sen. Barack Obama to get over the top.
Democrats would love nothing more than to knock Kirk out before he could become a serious Senate candidate in 2010 if Obama wins and an appointed Democratic successor is up for a full term. While Kirk can no longer be considered a clear favorite in the race, he remains in slightly better shape than some other GOP moderates in marginal districts.
GOP internals reportedly have Kirk up about 4 or 5 points. A Democratic poll is said to have Kirk down by a point. If there’s a big Obama wave, Kirk could very well get swept away. Remember, however, that there are thousands and thousands of ticket-splitters in that district.
* Immigrants appear to be a big part of the electorate in the 10th District…
Immigrants could be a deciding voting bloc in at least eight Illinois congressional races where they make up more than 12 percent of the population, according to a report released Thursday by an advocacy group.
Among the tightest races mentioned by the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights is the 10th District, where Democrat Dan Seals is challenging Republican Rep. Mark Kirk. Experts say the longtime GOP district, which covers portions of Lake and Cook counties, could be trending Democratic based on recent presidential elections.
About 19 percent of the 10th District’s population is made up of foreign-born residents who are now U.S. citizens and at least 18 years old, making them eligible to vote, the report says. The group did not know how many of those individuals are registered to vote on Nov. 4.
Ozinga’s campaign… now claims they are just two points behind Halvorson after they conducted a recent survey. Earlier polls had Halvorson leading by as many as 17 points.
* The AP has a story today about the role of Rod Blagojevich’s image in the Ozinga vs. Debbie Halvorson race…
Republican businessman Marty Ozinga repeatedly has knocked Democratic state Sen. Debbie Halvorson, of Crete, for being a bigwig in Blagojevich’s Democratic-controlled state government. But she has tried to turn the tables on Ozinga - with help from the DCCC.
Halvorson has criticized Ozinga for previously donating to the governor’s campaign - primarily a $10,000 donation in 2005. To drive home the point, the DCCC funded an ad that called Ozinga “the last guy you’d send to clean up Washington” and featured a sheepish picture of Blagojevich.
Blagojevich spokesman Lucio Guerrero said the governor is a convenient bad guy for candidates in the heat of an election.
“If people are frustrated, they take it out on the person that they know,” Guerrero said. “He’s the top guy, so it’s him.”
* Ozinga organized a counter-protest to the NRA’s endorsement announcement of Halvorson…
As reporters, NRA members and Halvorson supporters entered the Downers Grove Sportsmen’s Club for Halvorson’s press conference, they had to drive through a group of sign-toting Ozinga supporters.
The NRA was not impressed…
“Debbie has a record; she earned this rating,” said Todd Vandermyde, a legislative liaison with the NRA. “Marty Ozinga can talk all he wants, but (he) is an untested quantity. All we know is what he says.”
* And now Halvorson is mocking Ozinga on guns via a YouTube “ad”…
* In another race, Public Citizen has filed a complaint alleging that Peter Roskam misused the franking privilege…
The House’s franking commission is investigating whether Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.) violated franking rules, after the nonprofit group Public Citizen filed a complaint Thursday.
Members are prohibited from sending out official, unsolicited mail 90 days before an election. But Public Citizen alleges that Roskam sent out several brochures to his constituents after the Aug. 6 cutoff. […]
Roskam’s office didn’t immediately return calls for comment Thursday, but a spokeswoman for the Republicans on the House Administration Committee — which oversees the franking commission — said Public Citizen will have to prove that Roskam sent out more than 500 pieces of official mail. If it’s less than 500, the mail would not reach the threshold for a “mass mailing” and thus not fall under franking rules, other than for content. […]
“Right up into October, just weeks before the election, voters have been receiving two-page color mailers paid for by taxpayers, with Peter Roskam’s name splashed all over them,” Joan Claybrook, president of Public Citizen, said in a news release. “Taxpayers should not be footing the bill to advertise Roskam’s candidacy for Congress.”
