* Two things to keep in mind about the Tribune’s new US Senate poll. From the article…

The poll of 700 registered voters, conducted last Monday through Friday…

I’m going on the hope that they asked those registered voters if they were likely to vote. If not, this is worthless. Also, a five-day window? Some of these numbers are now a week old. That’s ancient in campaign terms.

But at least the Tribune put all the Senate candidates into its poll, unlike the Mason-Dixon poll.

Man, the polling this year is really messed up.

* From the Tribune poll…

Kirk’s support among independents increased from 38 percent to 50 percent, the poll showed, while Giannoulias’ backing among unaligned voters was relatively stagnant at about 28 percent. During that time period, the number of undecided independent voters dropped from 22 percent to 8 percent — with Kirk picking up virtually all of those deciding on a candidate. […]

The poll showed potential avenues where Giannoulias can grow support — if he can get Democrats motivated. Concerns of a post-2008 letdown have prompted Obama to make two visits back home to Chicago to help Giannoulias and other Democrats, with a third trip planned for Saturday.

Only two-thirds of voters in predominantly Democratic Chicago back Giannoulias’ candidacy, a gain of less than 5 percentage points from late September, while 15 percent of city voters said they were undecided. At the same time, in increasingly Democratic suburban Cook County, Giannoulias carries a slim 49 percent to 43 percent advantage over Kirk.

Kirk holds a strong 15 percentage-point advantage among men, and Giannoulias has an 8 percentage-point edge among women across the state. But the two men each have the support of 43 percent of a key voting demographic: white suburban women who tend to be social moderates.

Geo tabs…

* Meanwhile, the DSCC just leaked its latest topline…

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote — Alexi Giannoulias, a Democrat, Mark Kirk, a Republican, Michael Labno, a Libertarian, or LeAlan Jones, of the Green Party?

Total Giannoulias 38%
Total Kirk 36%
Total Labno 4%
Total Jones 7%
Undecided 16%

Another five-day polling window, but at least it’s more recent (Wednesday through yesterday). 600 likely voters. MoE +/-4.0 percent.

* Related…

* Charlie Cook: Dems’ House Losses Likely Enormous, but Senate Hard to Read

* Illinois Moves to the Right

* Revenge Of The Right

* Senate Forecast Update: G.O.P. Still Seeking No. 51

* Gay voters angry at Democrats could sway election

* Feds OK Illinois extension on overseas ballots

* Poll shows tight races for governor, U.S. Senate

* Poll: Kirk has slim lead in Senate race (VIDEO)

* Illinois Senate race listed as one of 7 toss-ups

* Forget ads: Senate candidates Kirk, Giannoulias worthy

* A closer look at U.S. Senate candidates Kirk, Giannoulias

* U.S. Senate candidate profiles

* Kirk, Giannoulias press the flesh in suburbs, city

* SJ-R: Alexi Giannoulias for U.S. Senate

* RR Star: Alexi Giannoulias our pick for U.S. senator

* Giannoulias: This Senate Seat Isn’t For Sale