* NPR…

The timing for the second set of new census results — the detailed demographic data that state redistricting officials need to redraw voting districts — remains unclear. That information is normally delivered to the states by the end of March.

“You should not expect it prior to July 30,” [Kathleen Styles, the bureau’s chief of 2020 census communications and stakeholder relations] said.

The delay ratchets up the pressure for states that are facing their own series of legal deadlines for the redistricting process in order to hold elections this year or next.

* TPM…

Even before Styles’ comments Wednesday, word had informally gotten out of the bureau and to redistricting experts that they should anticipate a late summer or early fall release date.

Some states took actions to extend their redistricting schedules once it became clear the pandemic could push back the data release. But several other states — such as Illinois, Connecticut, Vermont and Maine — still have deadlines on their books that now appear to be in jeopardy.

In addition to adjusting the deadlines for the maps themselves, states might also need to push back other deadlines on their electoral calendars, to give their map-drawers more breathing room to complete the redistricting process.

* Illinois’ redistricting deadline is in its Constitution, and changing it was not on the radar last spring. Here’s the relevant portion…

In the year following each Federal decennial census year, the General Assembly by law shall redistrict the Legislative Districts and the Representative Districts.

If no redistricting plan becomes effective by June 30 of that year, a Legislative Redistricting Commission shall be constituted not later than July 10. The Commission shall consist of eight members, no more than four of whom shall be members of the same political party.

* The likely prospect of the June 30th deadline not being met has freaked certain people out and they’re jumping to immediate conclusions that could very well be wrong and should probably take a breath…

Illinois has an upcoming constitutional crisis about redistricting. Redistricting plan is due by June 30th per the Illinois Constitution. Without it, a bipartisan Redistricting Commission is created. Democrats are screwed. Bipartisan map by law. #twill #ElectionTwitter pic.twitter.com/U2uVAu4Dxp

— Frank Calabrese ☃️ (@FrankCalabrese) January 27, 2021

And…

The delay could have serious implications for Democrats’ future hold on power and the 2022 elections. Redistricting maps, crafted once every ten years usually by the party in power, must be submitted no later than July 30 under the state’s constitution. Otherwise, mapmaking responsibilities fall to an eight-person, bipartisan commission that’s hand selected by the state’s four legislative leaders.

The prospects of a remap going to a bipartisan commission is looking likely, says Ryan Tolley, Policy Director at CHANGE Illinois, where he leads advocacy efforts for good government reform. A remap commission has only been convened four times since 1970, and they’ve typically been messy.

In three of those instances, the panel couldn’t agree to a plan and were forced to “randomly select the tiebreaker, either giving Democrats or Republicans control over the final map,” said Tolley.

* Shia is actually a voice of semi-reason in at least part of her story…

Election attorney Michael Dorf expects House Democrats will have a workaround, using census estimates so it can meet the constitutional requirement to have a map drawn by June 30. “They know that the map will be challenged in the Supreme Court anyway. So they could have it drawn and by the time they’re in court, it could be adjusted based on the data,” he told Playbook.

Dorf is speaking from experience, having represented lawmakers whose districts have been rejiggered in a remap. Legal challenges can come from the opposing political party and from minority groups concerned that boundaries don’t allow for proper representation of their communities.

First off, there is this thing called the Senate. It’s not just all on the House. C’mon.

* OK, re-read that constitutional excerpt above. It doesn’t say that the General Assembly has to use the 2020 US Census data. It just says they have to draw a new redistricted map after a decennial census. They can conceivably pass a new map with old data or recent estimates and then, as Dorf says, draw another map down the road.

To avoid the three-fifths passage requirement if they can’t draw a map until after receiving the data after July 30th, they could pass some sort of cross-your-fingers stopgap, delay the 2022 primary into the summer and put off the map voting until January - if the courts go along. Or, they could just try to hold their super-majority votes together and get something done this summer.

But, of course, then there’s the whole Pritzker veto threat of a map that isn’t a “fair map,” so it’s not guaranteed to be done even if the courts play ball.

Also, while the new congressional maps aren’t subject to this state constitutional deadline, delaying next year’s primary would solve that particular problem.

Ain’t nothing ever easy in this state. Nothing.

…Adding… Somebody just pointed out this other big error in the Politico story…

If that deadline isn’t met, then a bipartisan committee must be formed. That would give Republicans a bigger say in a process that would otherwise be dominated by Democrats who hold huge margins in the chamber to determine how boundaries are drawn for state House and Senate seats, as well as for city and county elected seats.

Um, no. The General Assembly does not draw the boundaries for the Iroquois County Board, etc. That’s just ludicrous.