* Gov. Pritzker today…
There will be cuts and they will be painful. And the worst thing is the same billionaires who lied to you about the fair tax are more than happy to hurt our public schools, shake the foundations of our cities and diminish our state, maybe because they think it won’t hurt them.
If they cared about giving your child the best public education available, if they wanted you to be able to afford childcare too, if they wanted your elderly parents to be cared for properly, just like their parents are, they wouldn’t have fought so hard to avoid paying just a little bit more.
People often say that I’m too positive and too optimistic. My optimism comes from the people of this great state. From all the things that they’ve endured together over this year, my optimism has not been shaken. We will get through this. We will get through all of this together.
Please excuse all transcription errors.
* Pritzker talked earlier about what those cuts would look like…
Option one immediately make billions of dollars in cuts. Let me offer some context to that. Already the state of Illinois invests on average less money per capita than the majority of states. That’s not to suggest that we can’t find significant cost reductions. We’ve been doing that. But if you think cutting government alone is the solution remember this, if you [garbled] federally protected programs court ordered obligations and our bond and pension debt, we would have to reduce discretionary spending in our state by approximately 15%. That’s 15% fewer state troopers. That’s 15% fewer students going to college. 15% fewer working parents receiving Child Care Assistance and 15% less money for your local public schools, which likely means that your property taxes will increase.
You could call this the Republican approach option.
* He also blamed the GOP…
Republicans swore their allegiance to the wealthiest interests in the state and they threw middle class families under the bus.
It’s no surprise these are the same people who pushed for Bruce Rauner’s agenda and will resurrect his failed crusade any way they can.
* And he warned he has a long memory…
I have not given up the battle to balance our budget and to put the state on firm fiscal footing. I will work every day to repair the fiscal instability that has been ailing Illinois,for more than three decades. I will work with the legislature to implement structural solutions to our decades-long budget [deficit].
But I will never forget that some of the wealthiest and most powerful interests in Illinois did everything in their power to put the burden of this on workers and their families, instead of shouldering some of the burden themselves.
* He was also asked whether Speaker Madigan’s reputation hurt the Fair Tax at the polls…
I think there’s enormous distrust in government all the way around.
*** UPDATE *** Pritzker was asked whether a flat tax hike was off the table. It isn’t. He said he was looking at all options…
I’m first and foremost focused on where we can trim our budget, where we can make cuts that won’t be painful for working families. I want to start with those. And we’re going to do everything we can.
But there is a point at which there’s no doubt that without revenue some of those cuts will start to hit things that do affect working families and I don’t know that anybody wants that to happen. Do we really want to cut education funding in the state? I don’t think so. Do we really want to cut funding, somebody asked a question about mental health services, or about the developmentally disabled and services that are offered to them? Do we really want to cut those? I don’t think so. And so, having said that, everything’s on the table because the fiscal challenge of the state is an extraordinarily high priority for me.
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*** UPDATED x1 *** Fitch states the obvious
Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Eric Kim, Head of State Government Ratings, Fitch Ratings…
“Without the estimated $1.3B a new graduated income tax would have brought in this year, Illinois will need to consider other options to balance its budget.”
“Alternatives for Illinois include additional borrowing from previously authorized general obligation debt or the Federal Reserve’s MLF program, spending cuts or revenue options such as an increase in the flat income tax rate or changes to the sales tax.”
“Illinois’ upcoming post-election legislative session could be particularly consequential this fiscal year.”
Forget the Springfield COVID issue, they may want to delay the veto session just for this reason alone.
*** UPDATE *** Moody’s…
Moody’s has issued a short note today (attached) regarding voters in the State of Illinois (rated Baa3/negative outlook) who rejected a constitutional amendment that would have allowed progressive or “graduated” income tax rates. The amendment’s failure makes greater reliance on deficit financing more probable for Illinois and is therefore credit negative, but the state’s likely pursuit of other recurring fiscal strategies mitigates this impact.
The enacted general fund budget for fiscal 2021, which began July 1, addressed a deficit of about $6.1 billion in part through the $1.27 billion of new revenue projected from higher taxes on the state’s highest earners or, if the amendment was rejected, a comparable amount of borrowing under an enacted deficit bond statute. Rejection of the amendment may also increase the likelihood the state will resort to other credit-negative strategies, such as deferring near-term pension contributions, although to date the state has not articulated a contingency plan involving cuts to retirement benefit contributions.
Illinois will likely turn to revenue strategies requiring only approval by a simple majority in the Illinois General Assembly, offsetting the negative credit effect of the ballot outcome. Alternatives include increasing the 4.95% flat tax that applies to individual income or broadening the state sales tax to more services. Raising the flat income tax by 70 basis points, to 5.65%, would generate about $3 billion of additional revenue, the same as had been projected for the first full year under graduated income tax rates that the state had devised in connection with the proposed constitutional amendment. Raising the flat rate or imposing other revenue strategies during November legislative sessions could preclude the need for the $1.27 billion of deficit bonds.
The amendment’s failure also increases the probability of spending cuts, which could generate lasting fiscal benefits. Gov. Pritzker has already asked agency directors to identify spending cuts of 5% in the current fiscal year and 10% for the coming year, with exemptions for any government functions “directly responsible for life, safety and health” in connection with the state’s coronavirus response.
Moody’s declaration of “credit positive” or “credit negative” does not connote a rating or outlook change. It is indicative of the impact of a distinct event or development as one of many credit factors affecting the issuer.
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Ives concedes
Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Jeanne Ives…
My campaign took up the cause of freedom, prosperity and peace. We gave voters a clear choice between my opponent who will raise taxes and grow government, and my belief that more taxes will solve nothing. The contrast was clear. And there is some solace in the defeat of the Progressive Income Tax, which I fought against as a state legislator. I have always believed that the people in this district deserve more determination over their lives than government has over their lives. This is the cause that brought me to this campaign, and sustained me for 18 months - through a global pandemic, shutdowns, riots and civil unrest.
The pain of our defeat is far, far less than the pain of the restaurant owners I’ve met who have been forced to watch a lifetime of work and investment be destroyed by a handful of bureaucrats. Or the parents I talked to whose children are suffering after being shut out of the schools and the activities they love. Or the friends who have packed up their families - and moved away from Illinois and all its dysfunction, because it just didn’t make sense anymore.
The serious issue before us today is the cause for which the Republican Party has stood in it’s finest hours: that is the cause of freedom, law and order and equality of opportunity. These noble ideals are vanishing under uninterrupted and unchallenged Democrat rule in Illinois.
Most importantly, the issue that lies before all of us is the overwhelming might that we have handed government - whether intentionally or ignorantly. We have created a situation in which a handful of people can - literally - decide which businesses win and which lose; they can decide to educate your children - or not; they even can dictate which among us are essential and which are not.
In this election, we ran against - not only Sean Casten - but members of both parties’ establishments, the media and other institutions that have protected entrenched interests for decades.
My team fought hard, but in the end the power of the opposition was too great. It is somewhat unclear to me what lies ahead for Illinoisans.
The foundation of the Republican Party has been freedom, smart government and equality under the law. My campaign believed in those principles and fought hard for them. We did not run from this struggle. Our party should welcome the contrast between our defense of liberty, diversity of thought, and peaceful discourse with the Democrats’ reckless spending, division and increasingly violent pursuit of a radical agenda.
For me, this campaign is over.
To those who supported us in this endeavor, thank you for staying the course and for sharing our hope for an “Illinois Reveille.” Over 18 months, our team grew to 847 volunteers in the field, 25,043 individual donors across the United States (90.6% small dollar donors), and countless prayer warriors. I am deeply grateful for your enthusiasm and generosity. I hope it will be said of our campaign that we kept the faith to the end.
Her next move?
Meanwhile, in CD14, Sen. Jim Oberweis is ahead by about 2,000 votes.
…Adding… Speaking of the Oberweis race…
Congresswoman Lauren Underwood’s reelection campaign released the following statement, attributable to Lauren Underwood for Congress spokeswoman Andra Belknap:
“Votes are still being counted in this race and this race remains too close to call. We’re excited to see record-breaking voter turnout across this community, and commend our county clerks offices for their work during this unprecedented election.”
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* Press release…
Vote Yes For Fairness Chairman Quentin Fulks released the following statement:
“We are undoubtedly disappointed with this result but are proud of the millions of Illinoisans who cast their ballots in support of tax fairness in this election.
“Illinois is in a massive budget crisis due to years of a tax system that has protected millionaires and billionaires at the expense of our working families, a crisis that was only made worse by the Coronavirus pandemic. Republican legislators and their billionaire allies who brought us the dysfunction and pain of the Rauner years continue to stand in the way of common sense solutions, choosing instead to play partisan games and deceive the working families of our state. Now lawmakers must address a multi-billion dollar budget gap without the ability to ask the wealthy to pay their fair share. Fair Tax opponents must answer for whatever comes next.”
* Sun-Times…
Incomplete election results showed 55% of Illinoisans voting against the amendment, and 45% voting in favor with 97.6% of precincts reporting. State election officials said Tuesday there could be as many as 400,000 outstanding mail-in ballots.
The amendment needed a “yes” vote from a majority of all people voting in Tuesday’s election or 60% of people who specifically voted on the amendment.
Thoughts?
…Adding… Hannah Meisel from early this morning…
Pritzker this week warned that he and the Democratic supermajorities that control the legislature would be forced to consider raising taxes across the board to deal with Illinois’ significant structural budget deficit, or brace for significant budget cuts.
“The cuts, though, just to be clear: 15% cuts in public safety dollars, education dollars, in the dollars necessary for human services exactly at a moment when people need these things most,” Pritzker said hours before polls closed Tuesday.
Both major budget cuts or an income tax hike, however, are extremely difficult and politically risky. Deep cuts to some areas like social services would be impossible due to long-standing consent decrees and court orders, and much of the state’s $41 billion budget is taken up by legally obligated payments like school and Medicaid funding, pension contributions and debt service — aka the interest on loans Illinois has taken out over the years.
The libertarian-leaning Illinois Policy Institute on Wednesday, which had a hand in organizing thousands of Illinoisans online to mobilize against the graduated tax since early last year, used its election night statement declaring victory to also point in the direction of a constitutional amendment to address Illinois’ ballooning unpaid pension obligations.
After the Illinois Supreme Court in 2015 threw out a bipartisan 2013 attempt to change Illinois’ public employee pension systems to save the state billions over time, conservatives have turned their attention toward moving public support for getting rid of the pension protection clause in Illinois’ 1970 constitution — the same constitution graduated income tax proponents said was standing in the way of fiscal stability for Illinois.
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Leader Brady will not seek reelection
Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Senate Republican Leader Bill Brady…
It has been an honor and privilege to serve as the leader of the Illinois Senate Republican Caucus.
I am proud of the work I have done throughout my career in the Illinois legislature and during my tenure as Leader. We were successful in securing additional funding for our public schools, helped create Invest in Kids (a tax-credit private school scholarship program for low- and middle-income students), stood up against income tax hikes that hurt working families, and worked tirelessly to improve our states crumbling infrastructure.
While I am proud of my record and the work our caucus has done, I believe it is the right time for a new Senate Republican Leader when the new 102nd General Assembly is sworn in next January.
When I was elected leader, I said that I would not pursue any other elected office during my leadership of the caucus. While my decision to not seek re-election as Senate Republican Leader may close this chapter, it by no means is the final word on my desire to serve our state and tackle those challenges.
Therefore, I am calling for a caucus to be held the first Tuesday when veto session convenes, as is our tradition, which is scheduled for November 17. At this meeting the caucus will begin the process of choosing a leader to present when the next General Assembly convenes.
…Adding… Subscribers know more, but this is currently true until one of them starts talking…
…Adding… Press release…
Senate President Don Harmon issued the following statement regarding Republican Leader Bill Brady’s announcement that he would not seek another term in the leadership post.
“Bill quietly and effectively advocated for the Republican senators and the communities they represent. He understood that conflict for nothing more than the sake of conflict is counterproductive.
While we approach challenges from different political perspectives, I have appreciated Bill’s focus on getting things done and his understanding and willingness to work with others to find success.
I wish Bill all the best.”
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