* Marni Pyke…
Bailey opposes abortion including in cases of rape or incest. However, “I have no problem when it comes to the point of saving the life of the mother … I don’t consider that an abortion.”
Bailey would seek to end taxpayer funding of abortion and try to repeal a new law that ended required parental notification when minors get abortions.
But he supports the idea of making “abortion unnecessary. Let’s empower churches and civic groups and religious organizations to offer real help and hope to pregnant women.” […]
Democrats have warned the Supreme Court will next act to reduce access to contraceptives or restrict same-sex marriages.
“I believe in biblical marriage between a man and a woman,” Bailey said. But in Illinois, “currently with same-sex marriage, it’s the law. Illinois decided to make it a law, I understand the reasons. I will not be seeking to mess with that; we have bigger problems to deal with.”
I’m so old I remember when the Democrats nominated a southern Illinois gubernatorial candidate with those very same beliefs (Glenn Poshard, 1998).
* Pritzker campaign…
As Pride month comes to an end, Darren Bailey wasted no time reminding voters that he cannot and will not be a governor for all of Illinois. In an interview Thursday, Bailey said that he “believe[d] in biblical marriage between a man and a woman.”
In his concurring opinion on the Roe decision, Justice Clarence Thomas signaled the Supreme Court may revisit marriage equality. At a time of great uncertainty for LGBTQ+ and marginalized communities, Illinoisans need a leader who will proudly fight for their rights––not one who doesn’t even recognize they exist.
“Every day Darren Bailey shows us just how extreme he really is,” said JB for Governor Spokeswoman Natalie Edelstein. “Marriage equality is the law of the land and all Americans, regardless of gender or sexual orientation, can exercise their right to marry. Illinois deserves a governor who will not just “say gay,” but who will march alongside them at Pride, protest with them for Black Trans Lives, support queer-owned small businesses, and above all else ensure their rights are protected.
Meanwhile, Governor Pritzker expanded the Illinois Human Rights Act to include LGBTQ+ residents as a protected class and expanded infertility insurance to cover LGBTQ+ families. From inclusive LGBTQ+ curriculums in schools, to expanded Medicaid coverage for gender affirming surgery, to requiring single occupancy restrooms be designated as gender neutral––Governor Pritzker has made great strides in affirming that Illinois is a place where everyone can feel supported.
*** UPDATE *** Sen. Bailey was on WGN with Lisa Dent and Steve Bertrand yesterday…
Q: There’s an ad against you on TV right now that says you would support an abortion ban, including when it comes to incest or rape. Is that true or not true?
A: No, that’s not true…
Q: But they show you agreeing with it? Did they edit it? Or what?
A: I said ‘at this time,’ and that was early on in my candidacy and the laws of Illinois have changed since then abortion has been codified into a law as a medical procedure.
Q: So, what would you support as governor, the state of Illinois when it comes to abortion?
A: I’ve been very clear about that during this entire campaign. And since then, I’ve said that, number one, we must end taxpayer funded abortion, there’s people residents of Illinois have no stomach or desire to be paying for abortions, let alone this increase that Governor Pritzker wants to bring in. We need to restore parental notification. And because parents need to have they need to be able to make choices for their young children, 12 year old girls that this is ridiculous. And then finally, an idea that was picked up in some of the churches on the Southside of Chicago that I’ve been presented with and I’ve been working on is this idea to make abortion unnecessary. And we do that by making adoption easier. We will do that by partnering with churches, civic groups and religious organization to make sure that pregnant women get the true care and opportunities that they deserve. I’m having to make a choice. Do I get an abortion or not?
Q: If the legislature would have passionate abortion ban, would you sign it?
A: Well, that’s not going to happen.
Q: We just, [crosstalk] I want to know what, but I just want to, Senator I want to zero in on where you stand in your position on it. If they were, and I agree with you it’s very unlikely, would you sign it?
A: Right now, my stance is that I have said that banning abortion is not a solution. We have got to work together. So hopefully, hopefully, I can work together with many groups in the Chicago area, to come to some terms and present some real options where government can partner with organizations to offer true hope and choice to pregnant women. That is the goal, so there’s, that’s your answer.
* More…
Q: Representative, are you going to support the LGBTQ community?
A: Well, I believe that, you know, in biblical marriage, that marriage is between a man and a woman. But I can tell you this, I don’t, law has been created. I embrace and love everyone as Jesus loves them. I don’t intend to hinder and get in their way at all. So, as a matter of fact, one of my best friends in the House that I consider a friend that I’ve been able to work with is a Representative Greg Harris, we’ve had an amazing the two years that I served in the Senate and in the House and now in the Senate, I’ve been able to refer to him to help get things done and to bring some ideas to him and to partner with him on some bills. So, so no, this whole, Governor Pritzker twisting all this nonsense trying to make this election about to abortion, this, is a problem. And this us going to be on Governor Pritzker’s head and that’s why we’re going to win in November because the true problems in Illinois encompass everyone, and that is crime, high taxes and unsafe schools. We’re going to get those six, we’re going to bring opportunity up to Illinois. That’s what people are worried about.
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* Press release…
Following the Illinois primary election results, U.S. Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi, Illinois Senator Ram Villivalam, and Illinois Representative Theresa Mah issued the following joint statement:
“Tuesday, June 28th, was a historic night for the hundreds of thousands of individuals who identify as Asian American or Pacific Islander (AAPI) in the great state of Illinois,” they said. “Several immensely qualified AAPI candidates won in contested elections for U.S. Congress, the Illinois State Senate, the Illinois General Assembly, and other key local positions in Cook County Government and across the state. While the Illinois Republican Party continues to elect candidates who promote the sanctity of ‘white life,’ Illinois Democrats continue to promote inclusivity, unity, and prosperity for all.”
“But make no mistake: racial, cultural, and religious minorities are not elected to public office by accident,” they added. “These candidates and their supporters have worked tirelessly to earn a proverbial seat at the table. We look forward to continuing our support of these candidates to ensure they are victorious in November.”
Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi won his primary election decisively on Tuesday night, receiving 71% of the vote. Congressman Raja is one of only four Indian-Americans in the U.S. Congress, and is the first ever South Asian to serve as Chair of a Committee or Subcommittee in Congress.
State Senator Ram Villivalam also won his reelection. He is the first Asian American elected to the Illinois Senate.
State Representative Theresa Mah also won her re-election for Illinois District 24. She is the first Asian American to serve in the Illinois General Assembly.
Additional key primary victories for U.S. Congress, the IL General Assembly include, and Cook County Government include:
• U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth
• State Representative Gong-Gershowitz, IL-17 (incumbent)
• State Representative Janet Yang Rohr, IL-41 (incumbent)
• Hoan Huynh, IL-13
• Kevin Olickal, IL-16
• Azam Nizamuddin, IL-48
• Nabeela Syed, IL-51
• Sharon Chung, IL-91
• Josina Morita, Cook County Commissioner
• Judge Rena Mare Van Tine, Circuit Court of Cook County
• Judge Sanjay Tailor, Circuit Court of Cook County
…Adding… My curiosity got the best of me and I had to look up Azam Nizamuddin. He lives in Bloomingdale and ran unopposed in the primary. He will face Hanover Park resident Jennifer Sanalitro in the 48th House District. It’s a swingy kinda-Dem district in presidential years, but has leaned Republican in off years.
Also, I’ve told subscribers this, but all of you should know that Sharon Chung is one hard-working candidate. Keep an eye on her.
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Today’s quotable
Friday, Jul 1, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Um…
The GOP turned out to not only look confused and shortsighted, but also outfoxed. By running millions of dollars in ads that not only blasted Irvin but spurred on the far right by labeling Bailey “too conservative for Illinois,” Pritzker, and the Democratic Governors Association, took out the competition before there was even a main event. How the Dems so effectively meddled in this campaign, one Irvin supporter told me, will be discussed and written about for years to come.
“Democrats are like pickpockets,” he said. “And Republicans are like confused tourists asking for directions while they get their pockets picked.”
At last check, Bailey was getting 57.7 percent of the Republican vote. Man, if that’s how top Repubs feel about their own voters, it’s no wonder there was such a revolt on Tuesday.
…Adding… A valid point from the comment section…
Was Pritzker supposed to let Irvin run $50 million in ads attacking him for four months without any response? That would’ve been political malpractice and apparently, they learned to get out of the gate quickly after the fair tax debacle
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LIVE COVERAGE
Friday, Jul 1, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
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* Vulcan Materials Co. is one of the three gravel and aggregate companies hit by the Local 150 strike…
June 30, 2022
Mr. Chad Groff
Vice President/General Manager Vulcan Materials Company
Dear Mr. Groff:
The ongoing strike has brought many of our projects to a halt, with more projects shutting down by the day. This strike has already negatively impacted several significant improvement projects, including the Jane Byrne Interchange reconstruction in the heart of Chicago and of our entire expressway system, the Interstate 55 and Weber Road interchange, the Interstate 80 bridge in Joliet as well as numerous resurfacing projects throughout northeast Illinois and Chicago.
The timing of the work stoppage could not occur at a worse time, at the height of construction season and during peak driving season with an eager public ready to travel after two years of a pandemic.
With these stoppages, the strike puts in jeopardy the state’s ability to deliver on the governor’s promise to modernize infrastructure, make capital and community investments and create jobs through Rebuild Illinois, the largest capital program in our state’s history and the first in nearly a decade. Additionally, the passage of the federal Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act late last year has Illinois poised to increase these investments to our transportation system and in our communities.
At this time, the Illinois Department of Transportation has no choice but to act in the best interests of the state and our taxpayers. This includes the possibilities of suspending awards from the June letting and revisiting whether to go forward with the upcoming July letting. It should be noted that the department reserves the right to explore using alternative mix designs to ensure the continuity of our projects. The department will not bear any responsibility or cost for increased expenses experienced because of the strike.
The workers of IUOE Local 150 have played a critical role in revitalizing our state’s infrastructure, stepping up to continue working on our job sites as essential workers throughout the pandemic. With the best interests of the state in mind, we call on management to bargain in good faith and offer the wages and protections the workers deserve. We urge the parties to come to a fair resolution without delay.
Sincerely,
Omer M. Osman, P.E.
Secretary
I’ve asked the Chicago Area Aggregate Producers Association for a response.
*** UPDATE *** Chicago Area Aggregate Producers Association…
We appreciate and share the interest that the Illinois Department of Transportation has in seeing IUOE Local 150 end its strike. The Association initiated discussions well ahead of the contract’s expiration date in an effort to prevent disruption to the construction season. We remain committed to a fair, mutually agreeable and economically sustainable resolution to the matters under discussion. It is important to remember that the union is on strike. Our companies’ gates are open, and we are eager for our employees to return to work.
* Local 150 release from earlier today…
Today, the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150 called on employers to commit to negotiating toward a resolution to a three-week strike that is impacting construction projects across Northern Illinois. Local 150 went on strike against material producers Lehigh Hanson, Vulcan Materials and Lafarge Holcim on June 7th over unfair labor practices the companies committed against their employees. The union has offered to meet anywhere at any time, day or night, weekends and holidays included.
On Tuesday, Local 150 presented the employers a comprehensive proposal on all remaining language and economic issues, and after a brief session on Wednesday, employers left negotiations without committing to any additional dates.
As the strike has gone on, reduced supply of materials has halted construction projects across northern Illinois and resulted in layoffs and project completion delays.
IUOE Local 150 President-Business Manager James M. Sweeney issued the following statement:
This strike can only be resolved through negotiations with the companies, and they are simply not bargaining in good faith at this time. Every day, more companies are running out of material, more projects are being delayed, and more workers are being laid off as a result.
We are again calling on these employers to get back to the table. We will meet them any time – days, nights, weekends or holidays. We have made progress when we have gotten them to the table, but far too much is riding on these negotiations for the employers to stall them.
Our urgency is not only about working toward a resolution for our members, but in getting laid-off workers back on the job, helping construction businesses get the materials they need, and completing the critical projects that municipalities across the state are now putting on hold.
Our message is simple: get back to the table or send someone who has the will and the authority to bargain in good faith toward a resolution.
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Abortion coverage roundup
Thursday, Jun 30, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* New York Times…
Illinois is quickly emerging as an island of abortion access for people in the Midwest and the South, as neighboring states move to ban the procedure after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to an abortion. Providers in the state had been preparing for a surge of people seeking abortion services, but many said this week that they were still overwhelmed by patients’ reactions to the decision. […]
In anticipation of higher demand, lawmakers who favor abortion rights in some states, including Maryland, have pushed legislation to allow non-physician health providers to perform abortions. Others, like those in Connecticut, have introduced legal protections for providers and for patients who seek services in their states but live in states that prohibit abortion.
In Illinois, providers are also expecting increased interest in medication abortion, which does not require a clinic visit. Out-of-state patients can cross the border into Illinois and meet with a provider virtually, and then have pills mailed to a post office box or a friend at any address within the state.
“Telehealth can work as a pressure relief valve in Illinois,” said Melissa Grant, the chief operations officer of Carafem, an organization that offers telemedicine appointments and sends abortion pills through the mail. Carafem also runs a clinic in Skokie, Ill., just outside Chicago. “We have had people take virtual appointments in their car, in coffee shops, in libraries or just on a quiet corner with a set of headphones,” she said.
* Tennessee…
CHOICES Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, an abortion provider in Tennessee, will continue providing abortions under the narrow legal restrictions now in effect in the state.
The Memphis clinic is the only abortion provider still taking new patients in Memphis, and is the only provider in Tennessee to confirm to The Commercial Appeal it is taking new patients. […]
The provider announced in May, after a leaked draft opinion suggested Roe would be overturned, that it would open a clinic in Carbondale, Illinois. The planned clinic will be a three-hour drive from both Memphis and Nashville. CHOICES said the clinic in Carbondale will be the southernmost abortion clinic in Illinois.
* More on the Carbondale clinic…
“We’re hoping to be up by August 1,” [Jennifer Pepper, CEO of CHOICES] said, “So that first phase of services will include medication, abortion, and gender affirming care. The second phase of services will include surgical and procedural abortions, […] and then that third phase will be around adding the midwifery and the birth services to get to our full complement of services. And we hope to be at the end of Phase Three within three to five years.”
After CHOICES made this announcement in early May, there were a variety of reactions from Carbondale residents and the surrounding community. Several groups from local churches showed up to a Carbondale City Council meeting to express their dissent, while at the following meeting, abortion rights advocates came to show support for the clinic.
Pepper said, in the face of opposition, she and her staff typically avoid engagement and press on to the best of their abilities.
* Mississippi…
Abortion funds in the state and across the country also plan to continue raising money to help people pay to travel out of state for the procedure. For many Mississippians, the closest place to obtain a legal abortion will be southern Illinois. Every neighboring state is also set to ban abortion in almost all cases.
CHOICES: Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, a clinic that is more accessible for many north Mississippians than the Jackson clinic, has announced plans to set up a new location in Carbondale, Illinois – a six-hour drive from Jackson.
* But there may be a catch. You will recall that Peter Breen is a former Illinois state representative…
The Thomas More Society, a conservative legal organization, is drafting model legislation for state lawmakers that would allow private citizens to sue anyone who helps a resident of a state that has banned abortion from terminating a pregnancy outside of that state. The draft language will borrow from the novel legal strategy behind a Texas abortion ban enacted last year in which private citizens were empowered to enforce the law through civil litigation.
The subject was much discussed at two national antiabortion conferences last weekend, with several lawmakers interested in introducing these kinds of bills in their own states.
The National Association of Christian Lawmakers, an antiabortion organization led by Republican state legislators, has begun working with the authors of the Texas abortion ban to explore model legislation that would restrict people from crossing state lines for abortions, said Texas state representative Tom Oliverson (R), the charter chair of the group’s national legislative council.
“Just because you jump across a state line doesn’t mean your home state doesn’t have jurisdiction,” said Peter Breen, vice president and senior counsel for the Thomas More Society. “It’s not a free abortion card when you drive across the state line.”
* Michigan…
At least two county prosecutors would consider criminal charges against abortion providers despite a temporary injunction against enforcement of a 1931 ban, their attorney says, underscoring uncertainty over the legal status of abortion in Michigan.
Enforcement of the old law, which makes performing an abortion a felony by up to four years in prison, was suspended following a May injunction by a lower-court judge.
But David Kallman, a lawyer representing Republican prosecutors in Kent and Jackson counties, says the injunction only applies to the state, not county prosecutors.
* Wisconsin…
Abortions have stopped in Wisconsin. A ban from 1849 still on the books has led the state’s four clinics to stop doing them. One district attorney now says he will enforce that old ban.
The district attorneys in Dane and Milwaukee counties said they will not prosecute the state’s abortion ban, and the attorney general is suing to block it, but the Sheboygan District Attorney Joel Urmanski said he will prosecute violators unless the courts rule the law is unenforceable.
* Missouri…
While the wording of Missouri’s 2019 “trigger law” bans abortions in the cases of rape and incest, those who have ectopic pregnancies will still be able to get treatment, since the revised statutes lists “medical emergencies” as an exception.
However, Dr. Colleen McNicholas says that exception isn’t as helpful as it seems. McNicholas is vice chair of American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists’ Missouri section and chief medical officer of Planned Parenthood for the St. Louis and Southwest Missouri Region.
“We always maintain that medical emergencies in abortion bans are essentially meaningless, because what they do is force physicians to decide how sick is too sick, and they really pivot medical decision-making away from what is clinically the most important and best approach for a patient, and now requires that physicians have to contemplate whether their medical decision-making will be able to withstand an investigation from the attorney general,” McNicholas said.
* Indiana…
“I’m going to tell you things, but they are not true.”
It’s a line Indiana-based OBGYN Dr. Katie McHugh uses right after she tells a patient they’re pregnant, and before she shares factually inaccurate information about pregnancy and abortion.
Currently, Indiana doctors are required by law to tell anyone who asks for an abortion that a fetus can feel pain at 20 weeks of pregnancy, which is medically inaccurate.
Though McHugh qualifies her legally-required speech with a warning that what’s she’s about to say is not fact, she says these legalities make it difficult for patients to believe her. […]
As an abortion provider of eight years, McHugh has worked under various Indiana laws that require doctors to provide abortion-seekers misinformation and essentially commit medical malpractice.
Now, she’s applying to practice medicine in nearby states like Illinois, where abortion-seekers in more restrictive states are already starting to come in large numbers.
…Adding… Crain’s op-ed by Eric Bergman, a registered nurse…
The Nurse Licensure Compact is not some hastily composed stop gap, but rather a tested and effective program to improve the movement and regulation of nurses across state lines. It is already in place in 38 states and has proven effective in supporting safe, well-regulated movement and care by nurses across state lines.
The nurses’ licenses would be like licenses allowing drivers in any state to drive in all other states on the strength of their home state license. Similarly, the Nurse License Compact sets strict standards and creates cross-border reporting. Only properly licensed and fit nurses can practice nursing in the compact states.
Unlike emergency orders waiving sensible rules about licensing and regulation, the compact will maintain protection, such as required background checks and reporting of violations to maintain public safety.
During the upcoming special session in early July, the legislators should act to pass HB4269 and get it to the governor’s desk so Illinois can guarantee safe, effective legal guidelines for rapidly increasing the available nurses for our reproductive health providers.
…Adding… McHenry County Blog…
Planned Parenthood is moving to Rockford as Wisconsin law shuts down abortions.
The organization recently purchased a converted house at 611 Auburn.
In a high traffice residential neighborhood, the house orginally was a doctor’s office.
…Adding… Planned Parenthood denies purchasing the Rockford real estate.
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State central committee updates
Thursday, Jun 30, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Politico…
[Democratic state central committee races where Gov’s Pritzker’s] candidates won or are winning: 5th District candidates Margaret Croke and John Cullerton, 6th District candidate Patrick Hynes, and 17th District’s Maurice West.
Races where Pritzker’s trailing or lost: Hal Sloan is losing to Tom Maillard in the 10th District; Natalie Manley is losing to Christine Benson in the 14th; Liz Brown-Reeves conceded to Katherine Daniels in the 15th; and Jehan Gordon Booth is trailing Pamela Davidson in the 17th.
There’s a virtual dead heat in the 10th District, where Lauren Beth Gash, a former state rep, was challenged by outgoing state Sen. Melinda Bush, who Pritzker endorsed.
Once the roster is set, the newly elected committee members will meet later this summer to conduct officer elections — which will determine whether Congresswoman Robin Kelly remains at the helm.
* Current numbers from Sen. Bush…
Sen. Bush says that as of this morning she is up by 384 votes (24,663 to 24,161), but the mail is still coming in. If the percentages hold, she says, she should win by 700 or so votes (The Cook numbers have been updated since then to 5,877 for LBG and 2,625 for Bush, which is pretty much the same percentage).
And from what I can gather, Benson is leading Rep. Manley by a bit less than 1,000 votes.
Also, Rep. West may not be a sure-fire vote against Chair Kelly.
* But here’s something to remember: The vote for party chair is a weighted vote. It’s not about who has more physical members on the state central committee. So, it’s complicated. First you gotta figure out who won by how much in all the counties in the congressional district, then you gotta figure out the weighting. It’ll take a bit of time. The fact that the governor’s campaign isn’t being Johnny on the spot about the results, however, may tell you something.
* Gov. Pritzker was asked today if he was going to oust US Rep. Robin Kelly as state party chair and if he believes she’s done a good job. His response…
Haven’t thought about that. All I want is to make sure that the Democratic Party is organized in a way that we can raise money for state candidates and federal candidates. As you know, there’s challenges with that having a federal office holder as the Chair. I support Congresswoman Robin Kelly, she’s terrific in her role as Congressperson and as somebody who’s lifting up Democrats across the state. So this is really just a matter of how we organize, to make sure we can raise the kind of dollars and organize our party to elect Democrats across the state. She’s great. There are just legal challenges. I think you know about that. The FEC has raised some of those, and they’re very difficult to overcome. And I think you’ve seen it in the challenges that the party’s had in fundraising. Having said that, you know, she’s a terrific leader, I think, you know, some of the people that are standing behind me work with her on a regular basis, as do I. So I intend to continue working with her, but you know, how we organize the party, that’s something that we’ll talk about in the next few weeks.
…Adding… Press release…
Today Congresswoman Robin Kelly, Congressman Danny K. Davis and Congressman Bobby Rush endorsed Mayor Lori E. Lightfoot in her re-election bid for Chicago Mayor. […]
“I am honored to have Congressman Davis, Congresswoman Kelly, and Congressman Rush stand beside me today to announce their support for my re-election campaign,” said Mayor Lori E. Lightfoot. “They are each leaders who exhibit integrity and compassion. Over the last three years, we have worked hand in hand to deliver real results to Chicago communities that have been left behind for far too long. We share a deep commitment to improving the lives of working people, and I am excited to see what we can continue to accomplish working together.”
“I endorsed Mayor Lightfoot back in February 2019 when her candidacy was a longshot because I knew that she was the one who could guide Chicago through its most challenging moments,” said Rep. Robin Kelly (IL-02). “Three years later, I am proudly still by her side. A significant portion of the 2nd Congressional District is in Chicago and her partnership, as well as leadership, has been invaluable as we continue our work to transform the South Side. Whether its unprecedented funding for community-based violence prevention or investments in high-quality affordable housing in South Chicago through INVEST South/West, this administration is delivering results for our communities. I am proud to call the mayor a close friend and support her campaign for another term in office.”
I assume the favor will be returned. Stay tuned.
…Adding… Rep. Will Davis is a Robin Kelly supporter, so this is no surprise…
“I want to thank 2nd Congressional District voters for electing me to succeed my friend, Al Riley, as Democratic State Central Committeeman. I look forward to representing a diverse group of Democrats from Chicago and the south suburbs to Danville on the Central Committee.
The Democratic Party of Illinois needs strong, ethical, transparent, inclusive and effective leadership, which is why I pledge to vote for Congresswoman Robin Kelly to continue as chair of our party later this summer. She is the first African American and the first woman to serve in that capacity. She has rebuilt the party, engaged the grassroots and expanded its donor base.
I do not need to wait to see who else will run for DPI chair. Since she became chair last year, Robin has distinguished herself as the best person to lead our party to victory in November and through 2026. It is often said that Black women are the backbone of the Democratic Party; Robin is the embodiment of that. She deserves our support. “
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Fabrizio Lee poll: Pritzker 50-43 over Bailey
Thursday, Jun 30, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This is Proft’s pollster, who was bringing back much the same numbers as other pollsters during the primary…
Full memo is here. Right direction is 40 percent and wrong track is 59 percent. That’s obviously not great, but the result has vastly improved over the years. Back in 2018, after four years of Bruce Rauner, it was 9 percent right direction and 84 percent wrong track.
Also, will Bailey have the financial resources to take advantage of these numbers?
* Methodology…
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates conducted a survey of 800 likely 2022 general election voters from June 20th – 21st statewide in Illinois. The interviews were split 35% cell phone/35% SMS to web/30% landline phone, using live operators for the landline phone portion. Geography was matched to past voter turnout in recent midterm general elections. Gender, age, education, party affiliation, and race/ethnicity were matched to demographic profiles of likely voters based on the voter file, state data, exit poll and VoterCast data, and DataTrust modeling. Respondents were randomly selected from lists of known Illinois voters. The margin of error at the 95% confidence interval for 800 voters is ±3.46%.
The sample was light on Latinos, a bit too heavy on whites. Nothing that would hugely change things, though.
…Adding… Some of y’all are reading way too much into this poll. Polls are not necessarily predictive of voter behavior months from now. Polls can only tell you what people are thinking the moment they’re asked. If post-primary polls were totally reliable, Judy Baar Topinka would’ve beaten Rod Blagojevich in 2006. Instead, JBT lost by 10 points.
So, take a breath. And try to analyze this in the moment. Things change in politics all the time. And remember that Blagojevich buried Topinka in TV ads to reverse his early polling deficit.
…Adding… As noted in comments, this poll was taken before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, so, again, everybody on all sides should just take a breath already.
…Adding… Also as noted in comments, this doesn’t include any post-primary “bounce” for Bailey.
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LIVE COVERAGE
Thursday, Jun 30, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
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*** UPDATED x1 *** More campaign news
Wednesday, Jun 29, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune…
The primary unfolded with at least one incumbent House Democrat loyal to Madigan conceding he lost and another who served in Madigan’s leadership team trailing late in a tight race, based on unofficial results. And one House Democrat with a convincing lead declared victory despite being under federal investigation. […]
Rep. Kathy Willis, the Addison Democrat that Madigan recruited years ago to take the seat away from Republicans, found herself trailing challenger Norma Hernandez, a Triton College trustee from Melrose Park. Hernandez’s camp claimed victory Tuesday night. […]
Holding a solid lead late Tuesday, incumbent Democratic Rep. Sonya Harper of Chicago said: “It looks like voters still want me to represent them in Springfield, and I’m very happy for that.”
Appointed Democratic incumbent Rep. Michael Kelly, who replaced longtime Rep. John D’Amico of Chicago, declared victory, according to his campaign manager, over fellow Chicagoan Michael Patrick Rabbitt, who acknowledged he lost.
* Tribune…
The GOP’s more moderate wing, reeling from the collapse of Irvin’s candidacy, is now fearful of the impact of Bailey’s candidacy as he leads the ticket for Springfield offices.
“We are really going to get our ass handed to us,” predicted one Republican in party legislative leadership, where the GOP has been a superminority to House and Senate Democrats. “If we thought where we were was bad, this is going to be a helluva lot worse.”
But Bailey said people should dismiss the naysayers.
“Springfield and the political elites have failed every one of us and now the elites and the press say that Pritzker is a shoo-in. They say our fate’s set, that a farmer can’t beat a billionaire,” he said. “Friends, the funny thing is these same people said that we couldn’t win the primary.”
* Press release…
Not even 24 hours after breaking out of an ugly Republican gubernatorial primary, GOP nominee for governor Darren Bailey wasted no time doubling down on his incendiary comments calling Chicago, the largest city in the state, a “hellhole.”
During an interview with WLS, Bailey showed Illinoisans more of his extremist MAGA brand of politics that puts divisive rhetoric over policy solutions. Host Steve Cochran pressed Bailey for solutions, even saying, “I’m asking you as the nominee, what will you do? Give me the specific, what will you do? It’s not a conversation. What’s the idea?”
“Even when given the opportunity to walk back his hateful rhetoric, Darren Bailey chooses to stand by his out of touch views that disparage the millions of Illinoisans who live in and around Chicago,” said JB for Governor spokeswoman Natalie Edelstein. “A politician who calls for separating Chicago from the rest of the state and embraces the divisiveness of Donald Trump is entirely unfit to represent Illinois’ diverse and vast population.”
* I get emails…
Rich -
Hope you’re well.
With the recent Dobbs decision and the primary behind us, I wanted to update you on the status of the 10th district candidates.
Joe Severino is an anti-choice extremist in a district that has been pro-choice for 50 years. Following the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, Severino said, “I applaud the courage of the court,” and “It’s time to celebrate life.”
As Joe put it in a recent interview, “I’m pro life… I’m a pro life candidate” Joe will use racist, disproven conspiracy theories to try to justify his position, comparing black babies to cattle meant to be sold for parts.
In his own words: “85% of abortions are black babies drawing HUGE returns in baby parts. This includes late term abortion. “Like steer-the bigger the baby the more profitable”.
[Schneider] gets millions from the death of black babies.”
Brad Schneider’s comment: “Joe Severino’s racist, misogynist stance speaks for itself, and speaks volumes about who Joe Severino is. Illinois’s Tenth District has been pro-choice for 50 years—represented by both Democrats and Republicans. Severino’s extremism is totally out of step with the values of the Tenth Congressional District.”
Schneider’s statement on the decision can be found here.
I think Severino’s statements illustrate further the Bailey/Miller “White Life” positions of ILGOP. Further, both Jesse Reising and Regan Deering supported the SCOTUS decision
* Press release…
On Tuesday night, three candidates supported by Restore Justice Illinois won their primary elections! Representatives Sonya Harper and Lindsey LaPointe, and Senator Robert Martwick will be the Democratic nominees in November’s General Election; as of now, they do not have Republican challengers.
With our Political Action Team, we proudly supported these legislators because they voted for the SAFE-T Act and other needed criminal legal system reforms. They faced opposition funded by people and groups that oppose compassionate steps forward.
We will now turn our attention to the General Election so we can help make sure candidates who believe in fairness and equity win in November. Join us by signing up for our Political Action Team. The team will make phone calls, canvass, and engage in other activities to support candidates. We will also hold regular check-ins to provide updates and information on the races.
*** UPDATE *** Gryder declares victory…
After securing the Republican Party nomination to challenge Lauren Underwood for the right to represent Illinois’ 14th Congressional District, Kendall County Board Chairman, Scott Gryder released the following statement:
“To all who gave their precious time, resources, and votes, thank you!
Because of your support, our campaign for the future of Illinois’ 14th Congressional District continues.
Lauren Underwood is in trouble because we are in the grips of the worst economy in over 40 years. With gas, groceries, medicine, rent, and everything else skyrocketing in price, the results of this primary show people are concerned and focused on the rising cost of everyday necessities.
We need to change course, away from the failing policies and leadership Joe Biden and his allies in Congress like Lauren Underwood are offering, toward pro-growth, pro-family, pro-freedom policies backed by leaders who know how to get the job done.
While honored to be nominated as your messenger of change as we carry on toward November 8, this election was a win for the hard-working people of the 14th District who need real relief, not more of the same.”
* ILGOP…
Rich,
Thank you for showing up at the polls in last night’s primary! Not only did we nominate strong, conservative candidates up and down the ballot, but we also SHATTERED the last midterm’s turnout with 50,000 MORE VOTES than 2018’s Republican primary.
We couldn’t have done it without you. We are so grateful for everything you’ve done, from donating, to volunteering, to showing up to the polls, to make this possible.
This election will not be easy. Billionaire Bully Pritzker is ready to throw his entire war chest at us, but Republicans are motivated to turn out and FIRE Pritzker in November!
We’ve also nominated strong candidates in all of our competitive Congressional races. Esther Joy King, Regan Deering, Scott Gryder, and Keith Pekau are all ready to FIRE PELOSI and return Congress to Republicans.
We can’t wait for November. Thanks for being a part of our team.
Sincerely,
ILGOP
Pekau beat Gary Grasso by 11 points.
* Press release…
Illinois — Vote Mama, the first PAC focused solely on electing Democratic moms, is thrilled to share our wins in this heated primary cycle.
CONTESTED
• Rachel Ventura — Illinois State Senate, District 43
• Laura Faver Dias — Illinois House of Representatives, District 62
• Samantha Steele — Cook County Board of Review, District 2
UNCONTESTED
• Tammy Duckworth –U.S. Senate, Illinois
• Margaret Croke — Illinois House of Representatives, District 12
“After a long election cycle I am thrilled to share that we have come out on top with important wins and especially for our contested races for Samantha Steele, Rachel Ventura and Laura Faver-Dias. Both Ventura and Faver-Dias have been declared victorious. With Steele 99% of the votes are in and there is a comfortable lead of 4,500 votes. We are optimistic about Steele’s victory, and look forward to celebrating her win that brings much needed reform to our broken property tax system that unfairly over taxes homeowners while giving breaks to big corporations. Samantha is confident of victory and looks forward to serving the people in the 2nd District of Cook County.” said Alexandra Eidenberg, Illinois Vote Mama State Chair.
“Thank you so much! I truly couldn’t have done this without your support and early belief in me. I am so appreciative of the help and support you provided. This win is ours.” said Rachel Ventura, candidate for Illinois Senate District 43.
“Through my involvement in my community, I know the power of moms working together and their ability to make change. We need more moms with young children in office to be a voice for all kinds of families and advocate for change that will improve the lives of our children and future generations,” said Laura Faver Dias, Democratic Nominee for Illinois House of Representatives District 62.
“From lapses in childcare to economic instability, the past two years have been devastating for so many families. Now more than ever, Illinois deserves representatives who understand these struggles firsthand and are committed to taking action. ” said Liuba Grechen Shirley, Vote Mama Founder and CEO.
* G-PAC…
The Gun Violence Prevention PAC Illinois (G-PAC), the state’s leading political force in ending gun violence, is proud to announce the victories of more than two dozen gun-safety candidates in races in Tuesday’s primary election. Chief among them was an upset in House District 16, where Kevin Olickal (D-Skokie) defeated incumbent State Representative Denyse Wang Stoneback.
“Rep. Stoneback failed her constituents when she worked against and refused to vote for life-saving legislation that would require universal background checks for all gun sales and provide funding for mental health. Elected leaders must be held accountable, and while Rep. Stoneback claimed to be an advocate, we need leaders who will consistently work with us to end gun violence, not just use it as a talking point to win their elections,” said Kathleen Sances, President, and CEO of the Gun Violence Prevention PAC. “Since we founded G-PAC in 2013, we have created an electoral and legislative infrastructure that has made Illinois a safer state, and today we are proud to build on that legacy with major victories all across the state. We are confident that these gun safety candidates will be victorious in November and go on to further strengthen Illinois’ laws to help end the public health crisis of gun violence.”
More than two dozen endorsed candidates have won their primary election with G-PAC’s support. The organization was heavily involved in delivering victories in many contested races, including:
• Sen. Omar Aquino (SD 2)
• Sen. Robert Martwick (SD 10)
• Sen. Celina Villanueva (SD 12)
• Kevin Olickal (HD 16)
• Rep. Lindsey La Pointe (HD 19)
• Rep. Justin Slaughter (HD 27)
These resounding victories showcase G-PAC’s political strength by organizing hundreds of supporters. Each candidate has G-PAC’s continued support going into the general election as we continue to build and defend our gun safety majority in the Illinois legislature.
Following Tuesday’s election, each candidate will now regroup and get back on the campaign trail as they look to secure their seat on November 8, 2022, in the General Election. Once elected, these candidates will ensure that the Illinois legislature has a gun safety majority so Illinois can continue to protect and pass life-saving legislation as violence continues to affect our communities.
…Adding… Sun-Times…
Illinois House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch came out of Tuesday’s Democratic primary a winner — and not only because he faced no challenger in his legislative race.
Flexing his newfound political muscle since succeeding Michael Madigan as House speaker, Welch also helped his wife, attorney ShawnTe Raines-Welch, win her Democratic primary contest for a seat as a Cook County judge from a suburban district.
Raines-Welch bested three opponents in the primary, getting about 35% of the vote. There were no Republicans running for the seat. So, barring last-minute ballot additions before the Nov. 8 general election, she has all but clinched a seat on the bench.
Raines-Welch’s campaign raised around $666,000 — a whopping amount for this type of judicial race and far more than all of her primary opponents.
* More…
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LIVE COVERAGE
Wednesday, Jun 29, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
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