Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Fabrizio Lee poll: Pritzker 50-43 over Bailey
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Fabrizio Lee poll: Pritzker 50-43 over Bailey

Thursday, Jun 30, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This is Proft’s pollster, who was bringing back much the same numbers as other pollsters during the primary…


Full memo is here. Right direction is 40 percent and wrong track is 59 percent. That’s obviously not great, but the result has vastly improved over the years. Back in 2018, after four years of Bruce Rauner, it was 9 percent right direction and 84 percent wrong track.

Also, will Bailey have the financial resources to take advantage of these numbers?

* Methodology

Fabrizio, Lee & Associates conducted a survey of 800 likely 2022 general election voters from June 20th – 21st statewide in Illinois. The interviews were split 35% cell phone/35% SMS to web/30% landline phone, using live operators for the landline phone portion. Geography was matched to past voter turnout in recent midterm general elections. Gender, age, education, party affiliation, and race/ethnicity were matched to demographic profiles of likely voters based on the voter file, state data, exit poll and VoterCast data, and DataTrust modeling. Respondents were randomly selected from lists of known Illinois voters. The margin of error at the 95% confidence interval for 800 voters is ±3.46%.

The sample was light on Latinos, a bit too heavy on whites. Nothing that would hugely change things, though.

…Adding… Some of y’all are reading way too much into this poll. Polls are not necessarily predictive of voter behavior months from now. Polls can only tell you what people are thinking the moment they’re asked. If post-primary polls were totally reliable, Judy Baar Topinka would’ve beaten Rod Blagojevich in 2006. Instead, JBT lost by 10 points.

So, take a breath. And try to analyze this in the moment. Things change in politics all the time. And remember that Blagojevich buried Topinka in TV ads to reverse his early polling deficit.

…Adding… As noted in comments, this poll was taken before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, so, again, everybody on all sides should just take a breath already.

…Adding… Also as noted in comments, this doesn’t include any post-primary “bounce” for Bailey.

       

68 Comments
  1. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:21 am:

    As much as people have been acting like this race is predetermined. It is not. It will probably be closer than most think given the national mood. Turnout will be a factor, and Republicans are enthusiastic this year.


  2. - Lefty Lefty - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:22 am:

    It will be interesting to see what this week’s J6C testimony will do to these numbers.

    Are there Edgar Republicans in the 43% that are going to do the right thing and ensure the peaceful transfer of power for our children?


  3. - Lord of the Fries - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:22 am:

    Turn out the lights… the party’s over…

    Fabrizio and Lee are legit pollsters. Pritzker is already at 50 and Bailey is at 43 which is probably his ceiling, will be a drag on the GOP in what should be a great year, congrats proft, line your pockets and tank GOP candidates. It’s what you’re good at.


  4. - Shrug - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:23 am:

    Bailey has had to deal with very little oppo and no serious attacks. His numbers only go down from here when people learn more about him.


  5. - Ron Burgundy - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:23 am:

    This isn’t going to be a rout like 2018, but JB is sitting at 50 in a Proft poll, and someone or something has to move him off that - whether millions in ads, events between now and November, etc. One thing for certain is the artillery barrage of Pritzker money is coming for Bailey, and it’s already started.


  6. - Chicago Blue - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:25 am:

    Bailey could win in crazy red wave election where turnout in the city is depressed, but…he’s not going to win independents by 19 points.


  7. - Excitable Boy - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:25 am:

    It appears the Pritzker campaign understands that victory isn’t a foregone conclusion. This isn’t 2018, and it isn’t 2020 either.

    The idea that the “normal” GOP voters will be turned off en masse by someone like Bailey is just wishful thinking. Put in the work and turn out your voters.


  8. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:25 am:

    A 13 point lead, polling at 50%… nice “start”

    I’d expect more and more … “education”… on who Bailey is, including how Bailey is dangerous to women’s health.

    How much dough is Uihlein gonna drop to bake this competitive,

    Proft is really good at winning primaries. I’ll leave that there.


  9. - So_Ill - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:26 am:

    ==Republicans are enthusiastic this year.==

    Did you miss the massive Roe v. Wade protests all over the country last weekend? I’d say democrats are pretty enthusiastic too, all things considered.


  10. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:32 am:

    A Morning Comsult poll for Politico…

    “According to the June 24-25 survey conducted after the court’s ruling, 56% of Democratic voters said they are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting in the midterm elections, up from 48% in a survey conducted June 17-20. That week-over-week increase represents a slightly larger enthusiasm boost than was measured after the court’s draft Roe decision leaked in May.

    The level of enthusiasm on the left is slightly less than the share of Republicans (58%) who expressed the same excitement about voting. The small margin is a relative rarity: In dozens of surveys conducted since September, Republicans have typically maintained a larger advantage on the question.

    Women (44%) remain less motivated to vote in November than men (61%), though both figures increased from the previous survey.”

    Enthusiasm…

    I dunno, seems like abortion might be a big issue, the economy is still really big as well

    How this poll figures with Illinois?

    That I don’t have with this poll.

    Link…

    shorturl.at/dnCGS


  11. - SpiDem - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:33 am:

    After Bailey’s big win, I would expect him to poll well right now due to response bias (excited voters more likely to respond to a poll).

    I’ll be interested to see what the numbers look like in 2 weeks


  12. - walker - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:36 am:

    Bailey shouldn’t rely overmuch on his speaking voice. His graphics, photos OTOH can be strong.

    If Jeannie starts speaking for Bailey, he gets stronger.

    DeVore will be a drag on Bailey’s chances.

    The differences in communications skills between the three is dramatic


  13. - Pundent - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:40 am:

    The challenge for Bailey is that he will now need to expand from beyond his base while being hampered by everything he’s said and done to establish that base.


  14. - City Zen - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:43 am:

    ==Did you miss the massive Roe v. Wade protests all over the country last weekend?==

    So they’ll be voting twice this year?


  15. - Arsenal - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:43 am:

    I don’t think I would’ve predicted this result, but it seems pretty believable right now. People have mentioned a bunch of caveats about Bailey (primary bounce, relatively little oppo) and that’s all possibly true, but this is a bad year for Dems, so Bailey winning isn’t impossible.


  16. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:46 am:

    ===So they’ll be voting twice this year?===

    I dunno what that exactly means, but if Pritzker is seemingly up 13 right now, once would do.


  17. - Henry Francis - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:46 am:

    Currently a 7 point spread, huh?

    Is there anything Bailey can tell voters about Pritzker that they haven’t already heard?

    Because I have to think that there are still plenty of things that voters can hear about Bailey for the first time. And Pritzker certainly has the dough to make sure everyone hears them (ad nauseam).


  18. - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:46 am:

    Pritzker got the match-up he wanted. Judging by recent elections, there is only so far Trumpism can go in this state.


  19. - Unstable Genius - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:47 am:

    “Head-to-head among those who have heard of both: Bailey +3″ - great starting point for Bailey. Pritzker has been filling up TV screens for quite a while - apparently, not making a positive impression .


  20. - The Abyss - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:47 am:

    How is 50 to 43 a 13 point lead?


  21. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:48 am:

    I think Gov. Pritzker will win, but if he wins closely, I think the McCaskill strategy here was a failure. It is not worth it flirting with the crazies unless he really trounces Bailey


  22. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:48 am:

    “I was under the impression there’d be no math”

    My apologies, I’m working on something else right now, I got careless in that numerology.

    My bad.


  23. - Politics commentator - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:00 am:

    “ How is 50 to 43 a 13 point lead?”

    Pretending the results are something that they are not. The same polls that showed Bailey up in the primary were paraded around like they were the sole truth, now they are ignored because it doesn’t fit the narrative anymore.

    Let’s at least try and play consistent with stuff. Pritzker is up but don’t underestimate Bailey either. We’re in for a wild ride the next few months.


  24. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:02 am:

    === Pretending the results are something that they are not.===

    Sure, that’s it, lol

    I am working on something else at the moment, and “13” is in reference to July 13th I am leaving for out of town and making (emailing) arrangements.

    I made an error. There’s no conspiracy, for the love of Pete.


  25. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:03 am:

    ===now they are ignored because it doesn’t fit the narrative anymore.===

    Who exactly is ignoring this poll?

    Be specific


  26. - Try-4-Truth - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:07 am:

    An incumbent at 50% at this point is devastating news for Bailey. That usually means he needs to 1.) Drive the Govs. numbers down but that doesn’t really bring his up… or 2.) Hope events drive the Govs numbers down.


  27. - Arsenal - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:12 am:

    ==“Head-to-head among those who have heard of both: Bailey +3″ - great starting point for Bailey.==

    Nah. Informed ballot tests are heavily dusted with wishes.


  28. - SI - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:12 am:

    I’m a conservative from Southern Illinois and have always voted in the GOP primary. I can’t imagine Darren Bailey as Governor or how that could remotely be a good thing. He will not have my vote.


  29. - Concerned Observer - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:12 am:

    Dude, Willy apologized, let that go. Misreads happen.

    Pritzker’s at 50, and 43 on the definites. So Bailey has to keep all of his probables just to tie, then win 7-6 on everybody else, including JB’s probables.

    Problem is, everything Bailey has to do to keep his probables pushes away all of JB’s.

    If you think a pro-gun, anti-choice, unfamiliar, downstate candidate staring down the barrel of the largest financial onslaught in state history can still win *every unsure voter in the state of Illinois*…well, more power to you, I suppose.


  30. - Benjamin - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:12 am:

    This is a winnable race…for some other candidate. All the Republican candidates had an uphill battle, but I can’t see how Bailey of all people will expand his appeal beyond the Republican base.


  31. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:12 am:

    “If post-primary polls were totally reliable, Judy Baar Topinka would’ve beaten Rod Blagojevich in 2006.”

    Very true. A single poll is merely a snapshot that will not really be relevant a week from now. But please stop reminding me the worst governor in Illinois history (tied) beat someone who would have been a wonderful governor.


  32. - Liability - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:14 am:

    Also, poll was taken pre-Roe decision from SCOTUS.


  33. - SI - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:15 am:

    Did you miss the massive Roe v. Wade protests all over the country last weekend? I’d say democrats are pretty enthusiastic too, all things considered.
    ====
    But nothing changes in Illinois. In fact, abortion becomes even more accessible in Illinois which counters the national democratic narrative likely lowering localized enthusiasm. Democrats voting in Illinois does nothing to change the national narrative. Democrats aren’t going to be motivated by just voting for JBP assuming he has it in the bag; this could be to their detriment.

    On the flip side, suburban republicans will not be rushing to the polls to vote for Bailey. I won’t be and I’m a downstate Republican.


  34. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:17 am:

    ===And remember that Blagojevich buried Topinka in TV ads to reverse his early polling deficit.===

    This, this is everything.

    What Rod did, as an incumbent too, was flip the script, using a video to help his “argument” too.

    Bailey will need considerable resources going forward. In the last 24 hours I’ve seen the “Bailey abortion” ad 3 times. I will be surprised if Pritzker’s folks let up.

    Being the “Fire Pritzker” guy while being outsider by an incumbent governor starting out at 50%, that’s a joke Bailey will need to figure out how to climb out of in this beginning.


  35. - Publius - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:20 am:

    Gop are enthusiast? 90% believe the big lie it’s sad


  36. - Suburban Guy - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:21 am:

    The political environment changed overnight several days after this poll was taken. Exactly why this is a snapshot in time, and one that was before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade.


  37. - Hot Taeks - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:21 am:

    Few things: This poll was conducted before the primary (although we knew Bailey was GOP favourite) and before the Dobbs decision. I’m skeptical of methodology in using text response. Most polls I’ve taken over the phone take at least 15-30 minutes to complete because they need to get all of your demographic information. I also don’t trust partisan pollsters (R or D) as much as organizational (NPR, NBC, Quinnipiac) pollsters. So a 7 point deficit from a GOP Pollster isn’t the flex that Bailey and Proft really think it is.


  38. - SI - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:23 am:

    Many here have stated they distrust this polling and I’m inclined to agree. However, what will be evident is that JBP and team are taking this potential threat very seriously. Rich pointed out yesterday that 2022 may be JB’s first of two races against “Donald Trump.”


  39. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:25 am:

    “So a 7 point deficit from a GOP Pollster isn’t the flex that Bailey and Proft really think it is.”

    I somewhat disagree. This poll is out there for fundraising. It is a “look look look look we have a chance, give us money” poll. Being 7 points down against an incumbent at 50% isn’t a good poll. But they could have started in a lot worse territory.


  40. - Arsenal - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:28 am:

    ==But nothing changes in Illinois.==

    Has Bailey already conceded that?

    Because if not, good luck convincing pro-choice voters to rest easy.

    And if so, good luck convincing pro-life voters to come out for him.


  41. - RNUG - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:28 am:

    == Did you miss the massive Roe v. Wade protests all over the country last weekend? ==

    == I dunno, seems like abortion might be a big issue, the economy is still really big as well ==

    Abortion is probably less of an issue in Illinois on the D side with the current laws on the books and almost guaranteed future control of the Legislature

    == he’s not going to win independents by 19 points. ==

    I think you might be misjudging the level of voter anger with the current course of everything. Events between now and election could make a huge difference. We’ll see … that’s why we hold the actual election.

    == DeVore will be a drag on Bailey’s chances. ==

    Fully agree. Kim would have been much better for Bailey.

    If Bailey has the money, it’s going to be a horse race.


  42. - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:28 am:

    The upcoming election should be better than Rauner vs. Pritzker, in terms of more closely representing the voters’ will. Bailey wiped out his competition, Rauner barely beat Ives.


  43. - M - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:41 am:

    “Abortion is probably less of an issue in Illinois on the D side with the current laws on the books and almost guaranteed future control of the Legislature.”

    Errr…it’s really not. I’m in my early 30s and every person my age I talk to knows that the safety in IL could quickly change. They know that voting to keep pro-choice politicians in is the only way IL stays pro-choice.

    It is a huge issue for people who can become pregnant, especially those who do not ever wish to be pregnant or expand their family.


  44. - H-W - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:45 am:

    So looking at the “Independent” voters, I wonder how many of these are former Republicans who no longer support the current party (a few percent perhaps), and how many are Tea Party radicals who do not claim a party affiliation because they hate the party leadership (like DeVore suggests about himself), but will never, ever, ever vote for Pritzker. I am sure some of these are just independent minded voters. But I bet not all are, and those that are not surely lean Republican.


  45. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:47 am:

    The argument in Illinois on abortion could be (and sermingky signaled by Planned Parenthood) that Bailey and Republicans are dangerous to women’s health.

    Now, if Bailey wants to say abortion is “settled” here in Illinois, here’s the sitch to that.

    1) pro-life folks will likely call that a cop-op and force Bailey to be more pro-life

    2) Pritzker’s Crew will continue to run this same as I’ve seen three times in the last 24 hours, warning women and others of the“dangers” Bailey is.

    It’s the worst default to claim it’s “settled” in Illinois AND be a Republican.

    Then again, it’s worse to fully embrace what Bailey is seen saying, in his own words, in Illinois?

    We’ll see.


  46. - Anon221 - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:48 am:

    In the General, a voter has more choice than in the Primary and their party choices cannot be tracked. So, will Republicans vote straight down the line, especially if oppo to Bailey continues to point out how out of step he is with even some in his own party? Will folks vote for him as a proxy/protest vote against the current state and federal administrations, regardless of how that might actually result (if he should win) in a weakening of our state government through inaction and an further division between parties (and within the Republican party itself)? Or, will folks vote (or not vote at all for certain offices) based on how influential the Jan 6th hearings may be on the national level between now and Nov. 8th, and whatever else the Pritzker campaign “lifts the veil” on Bailey these coming days/weeks/months. I still see the deck stacked against Bailey, especially if voters on the Republican side leave the Governor selection blank in November.


  47. - northsider (the original) - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:48 am:

    This was taken before the primary, so it doesn’t include the traditional ‘bounce’. Bailey would likely poll a little higher today.
    That said, it also doesn’t include those who didn’t believe a rational party would actually nominate Bailey & DeVore.


  48. - Amalia - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:48 am:

    abortion may be on the books in Illinois but there are things that can be done and undone and there is also a Supreme Court race that could change things. I trust no one with an R next to their name because of reproductive issues. Trust none of them.


  49. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:50 am:

    ===This was taken before the primary, so it doesn’t include the traditional ‘bounce’. Bailey would likely poll a little higher today.===

    It also doesn’t factor in Toe being overturned.

    It’s a snapshot in a moment that has passed. It’s still a snapshot all the same.


  50. - Steve - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 10:50 am:

    This is just one poll. Anyway, Bailey has a long way to go. I don’t know what his plans are to make up the vote he will not get in Cook County.


  51. - Candy Dogood - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 11:00 am:

    If I found this polling memo around the office, I’d appreciate it as a hilarious joke. Bailey is +19 with independents?

    If someone I paid gave this to me, I’d have some real questions about methodology. Bailey +3 with voters who have heard of both? How does Pritzkers name ID compare to Bailey? Is it so low that the people who heard of both are solidly GOP voter?? How are we defining independents?

    I’d only publish this junk if I was trying to make a case to donors and was desperate for social media to spread my questionable numbers.

    If the Governor’s internals look like this then Illinois is not the place I thought it was.


  52. - Sports Stooge - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 11:18 am:

    I’m curious as to if/when the RGA fully jumps in. I know they’ll do rudimentary work & advertising - and they raised $75 million last year and $33 million in Q1 this year - but they’re not going to go all-out if they determine that Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin (and maybe even Pennsylania) are better bets.


  53. - SAP - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 11:34 am:

    The poll may have been before the Dobbs opinion was released, but that one wasn’t a surprise. I know an actual opinion is a lot more real than a leaked draft, but the writing was on the walls for over a month.


  54. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 11:35 am:

    ===I know an actual opinion is a lot more real than a leaked draft, but the writing was on the walls for over a month.===

    If an opinion is different than a leak, how can the result be the same in a poll?


  55. - Pundent - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 11:43 am:

    =Abortion is probably less of an issue in Illinois on the D side with the current laws on the books and almost guaranteed future control of the Legislature.=

    Abortion became an Achilles heel for Bruce Rauner and that was obviously well before the SCOTUS ruling. But what also sank Rauner was his willingness to admit “I’m not in charge.” So whether it’s abortion or any other topic Bailey can’t concede that there’s nothing he can do to change the course of this state. Otherwise, why vote for him?


  56. - New Day - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 11:44 am:

    Several things. 1) the onslaught against Bailey will be massive and sustained. By the time people start voting, nobody will be confused as to who Darren Bailey is. 2) As several people have mentioned, this poll is pre-Dobbs and pre-Primary. Frankly, it’s pretty pointless. 3) Pritzker won’t beat Bailey by 25, but I’d be shocked if the margin was less than 10. There’s a massive amount of crazy Darren Bailey video out there and his views just aren’t in line with Illinois voters. 4) And then there’s Devore. Oh, boy. I hope there’s just a bit of money to show people what crazy really looks like. Oh, boy.

    JB by 12.


  57. - New Day - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 11:45 am:

    Oh, and one more thing. Anyone who thinks abortion won’t be a big issue for suburban voters this year doesn’t understand suburban voters. This will be a very big voting issue here.


  58. - The Dude Abides - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 11:50 am:

    I think Bailey has a chance but it is a slim chance. We’ve had Republican Governor’s before like Thompson & Edgar but they were moderates, not unabashedly conservatives like Bailey. Even if Bailey becomes Governor it’s really doubtful that he could Illinois a pro life state. Pro choice women won’t see it that way though, they will come out and vote against Bailey anyway. Inflation is a problem across the country, a lot of voters know that we’re not experiencing these economic issues because of anything JBP has done. Bailey will win sparsely populated Counties in Southern Illinois for all the good it will do him but JBP is going to get elected again.


  59. - Arsenal - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 12:15 pm:

    ==I think Bailey has a chance but it is a slim chance.==

    I think it also depends on “a chance to do what?” Win? Yeah, that’s slim. Get within 5? Not as slim. Within ten? Probably pretty strong, really. Post up an occasional poll that freaks out the libs? A near certainty.


  60. - ZC - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 12:20 pm:

    As I’ve said before, the problem for IL Republicans is that IL is about five percentage points more Democratic than Wisconsin.

    In WI this race could be a nail-biter. In iL Bailey basically needs to catch every break or those last five percentage points, might as well be Mt Everest.


  61. - Mike - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 12:41 pm:

    == As I’ve said before, the problem for IL Republicans is that IL is about five percentage points more Democratic than Wisconsin. ==

    Uh, you’re off by a factor of about three or four.


  62. - Pundent - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 12:52 pm:

    As people get to know Bailey, and Pritzker will have a lot to do with the narrative, how will he close the gap? Regardless of the current circumstances it’s hard to envision how Bailey becomes more likeable or appealing as things progress. He’s moved from being a sideshow to the big top. There’s nothing in his past that suggests he’ll do particularly well under the spotlight.

    But maybe the larger question is where does the ILGOP, such as it is, see itself in this race? Is Bailey viewed as an aberration or the future of the party? There’s a whole bunch of establishment Republicans who clearly backed the wrong horse. Will they now become part of team Bailey, with all the baggage that entails, or let him go it alone?


  63. - don the legend - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 1:15 pm:

    When Bailey loses and the state map is color coded for the red counties he won and the blue counties JB won, Bailey’s supporters will absolutely go crazy(ier).

    Can’t wait.


  64. - Norseman - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 1:38 pm:

    Abortion restrictions, book banning, whitewashing history, limiting LGBTQ rights, attacking teachers and other public sector employees are all on the agenda for the IL MAGAT run GOP. JB will ensure everyone is well educated about that agenda.


  65. - Paddyrollingstone - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 3:50 pm:

    Pundent - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 9:40 am:

    The challenge for Bailey is that he will now need to expand from beyond his base while being hampered by everything he’s said and done to establish that base.

    Late to the conversation here but that is a great comment. Kudos


  66. - MyTwoCents - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 4:15 pm:

    It’s easy to say abortion won’t matter in Illinois because it’s already protected. First of all, as was alluded to in other posts, there’s still areas where Illinois can change things. Also, there will be federal offices on the ballot in November & this is a battle that will also play out in DC as well. We’ll have to see how things will go in Congress over the next months, but that is something that the Democratic Party could use to get the vote out. I’m going to take an educated guess and say that people who are coming out to vote because of that issue aren’t going to skip state offices, in fact they’re probably going to vote straight Democratic.


  67. - Pundent - Thursday, Jun 30, 22 @ 4:43 pm:

    Bailey’s challenges are further compounded by one of his main governing pillars. That is, the rest of the state should secede from the City of Chicago. Now if and when he says, “I didn’t mean it” how will his base react? And when voters in Chicago and metro areas hear this nugget for the first time, how will they react to it?


  68. - Frank talks - Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 1:21 am:

    Low voter turnout is inevitable come November. Always is in a non-presidential year. That’s a benefit for Bailey.
    JB and crew are going to run with the abortion issues as top dog. They’ve already started. That will resonate but people will want way more than Roe to vote for someone. The GA is still going to be Dem so you can’t Executive Decision abortion restrictions..

    IB needs to focus on accomplishments and why he should stay Gov. Remind people of Roe but do not make it the whole campaign.

    Focus on economy and jobs. Reducing the government bloat, reducing property taxes, jobs, attracting people to Illinois etc.

    Winning issues are the key. IRoe is only on factor. And while vocal is it out sally the only factor?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Today's number: 19
* Afternoon roundup
* AG Raoul files SAFE-T Act appeal with Illinois Supreme Court
* How domestic violence is often a precursor to other violent crimes
* Bears unveil subsidy bill
* DeVore loses bizarro election case in Normal
* Not too hard to predict how this judge is gonna rule
* Pritzker leans into College Board fight with DeSantis: "Black history is American History"
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Pritzker endorses candidates in nearly two dozen Chicago aldermanic races
* Isabel’s morning roundup
* Open thread
* Live coverage
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller