* WaPo…
Democrats are moving urgently to harness the wave of grass-roots protests that have greeted President Trump in his first weeks in office to reclaim the House majority in next year’s midterm elections.
As of this week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is hiring full-time operatives to do political organizing work in 20 key Republican-held districts — an unusually early investment in House races that do not even have declared candidates yet.
Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), the committee’s chairman, called the move “unprecedented” for Democrats, who need to pick up two dozen GOP-held seats to win the majority. […]
The 20 targets include many of the districts where Democrats hoped to unseat Republicans last year — including suburban districts in California, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Colorado. But they are also going into districts represented by veteran GOP lawmakers — such as Reps. John Abney Culberson (Tex.), Peter J. Roskam (Ill.), Edward R. Royce (Calif.) and Pete Sessions (Tex.) — who did not face a strong 2016 challenge but where Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton ended up beating Trump.
I dunno about Roskam. Do you think he’ll be vulnerable?
* Then again…
A group of 16 constituents that arranged to meet with staff members at the West Chicago district office of U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Wheaton) Wednesday about their concerns with a repeal of the Affordable Care Act were abruptly told they would have to reschedule after staff realized a member of the press was present.
Sandra Alexander said she scheduled the meeting weeks ago and was stunned that they were turned away. “We are going to be respectful and see if they will change their minds,” Alexander said. […]
“He just ran off,” Alexander said. “They never told me that the media could not be here, and the reporter was willing to leave so that we could have our meeting,” she said.
* The DCCC might also want to look at Rodney Davis’ district, which is the home to something like ten universities and colleges, including UIUC and ISU. And speaking of ISU…
Josh Knight of Normal said he brought his 8-year-old son to a Not In Our Town Bloomington-Normal rally Wednesday night in Bloomington to show him how to be an American.
“I wanted to show him that we treat all people equally and that we instill in him the values of American culture that we believe in and that is freedom for all people and to be an open and welcoming person,” said Knight. […]
They were among about 1,200 people who filled the Bloomington Center for the Performing Arts auditorium to capacity in a show of support for their immigrant neighbors and to protest President Donald Trump’s executive order on immigration, making the rally one of the largest in recent memory in the Twin Cities.
1,200 people turned out for a pro-immigration rally in Bloomington? Something’s up.
Davis supported the president’s executive order, but that midterm could be rough if that district can be organized.
The problem with that idea, however, is the district is so spread out. Bloomington and Urbana aren’t far away geographically, but they are worlds apart in many other ways. The campuses appear to dominate the district on paper, but people on those campuses almost never work together. Also, I think about 40 percent of the district is in the St. Louis media market. It’s all over the place.
*** UPDATE *** Many thanks to a commenter who pointed us to this DCCC memo, which reveals that Congressman Davis is on the DCCC’s target list, along with Congressman Randy Hultgren (which may be a bit of a stretch). From the memo…
History Isn’t On Their Side:
* Since 1900, there are only three examples of the president’s party gaining seats in the first midterm: 2002 (George W. Bush), 1934 (Franklin D. Roosevelt) and 1902 (Teddy Roosevelt).
* In modern history- since 1982- the president’s party has lost an average 28 seats in the first midterm election, even accounting for Republican gains in 2002 under President Bush.
President Trump’s Historic Unpopularity:
* In all midterms over last 23 years, the sitting president has needed a net-positive job approval in the double-digits in order to stave off losses.
* According to a new Quinnipiac University Poll conducted over Donald Trump’s first five days as President, only 36% of voters approve of his job performance.
* Trump has reached majority disapproval (Gallup Poll) in a record-shattering 8 days.
Deeply Unpopular Agenda:
* On policy, House Republicans are taking the wrong lessons from 2016: kowtowing to Trump’s most divisive policies like his border wall, while opposing him on popular plans to preserve Medicare or action on trade.
* The Republican plan to repeal the Affordable Care Act is deeply unpopular, and will continue to create political backlash across the country.
* Republican attacks on Medicare, Social Security and Planned Parenthood, and efforts to gut ethics and transparency safeguards will have repercussions at the ballot box.