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Rauner: We’re just hearing things that some people are saying

Wednesday, Aug 31, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Jason Barclay, Gov. Rauner’s General Counsel on July 6th…

Last week we learned that AFSCME is conducting strike assessments throughout the state. This document confirms that AFSCME is now asking individual members to commit to a strike. And we have also heard that they have already selected a strike date of September 1 – which, depending on the status of the Impasse Case at the Labor Board, could be a violation of the Tolling Agreement AFSCME signed with the State wherein it committed not to strike until the Labor Board determines if an impasse has been reached. An AFSCME strike could result in serious disruptions to its members lives – disruption to pension calculations because of a lengthy strike, loss of wages and health insurance during a lengthy strike, and the possibility of being replaced by replacement workers, potentially permanently.

* State Journal-Register article on July 6th…

Members of the largest state employee union have been getting briefed on what would happen in the event of a strike and some are being polled over their willingness to go on strike over the stalled contract negotiations between the union and the state.

Members of Gov. Bruce Rauner’s administration said the actions show that the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees “is now asking individual members to commit to a strike,” possibly by Sept. 1.

* An op-ed published in the State Journal Register by John Terranova, Deputy Director, Office of Labor Relations on July 16th…

This paper recently reported on the possibility that AFSCME Council 31 employees could go out on strike, perhaps as early as Sept. 1.

Um, yeah. The reporting relied on the Rauner administration’s memo.

That op-ed was sent out to state employees by Terranova on July 19th.

* From a Rauner spokesperson on July 28th…

These comments demonstrate the lack of judgment and reasonableness of the leaders who are marching our state workers toward a September 1 strike.

By then, it was no longer portrayed as a possibility, the date was a firm fact.

* A John Terranova memo dated August 2nd…

As we near AFSCME’s September 1 strike date, I wanted to update you about a troublesome development.

A September 1st strike looked like a lock by then, according to the administration.

* Gov. Rauner was asked about the September 1st date today…

“That’s, that, we’re just hearing that from, we have many, uh, state employees who are working closely with our administration who like our proposal, who like our contract recommendation and are, and are advising us and there’s been a lot of chatter about strikes and strike dates and strike preparations and raising a strike fund. I don’t know. Nobody, I mean, we, we believe we’re at impasse. Um, and, uh, we’re just going through the process that we all agreed. We agreed with the union how the process would go. We had a toll agreement. We have a legal agreement. And we’re going through that process right now and it’s going to play out in the coming weeks and months.”

* Raw audio…

[The audio link doesn’t seem to be working at the moment. None of the links on the CMS site are working, actually. So, give it some time.]

…Adding… The link is working now.

…Adding More… A senior administration source with knowledge of the administration’s thinking claims signs are popping up in agencies during the past few weeks in AFSCME colors that say “Get ready.”

“We think that’s preparation for a strike,” the source said.

Anders Lindall with AFSCME said the signs mean the union is “Ready for whatever may come. Right now, we’re ready to set straight the frequent falsehoods of the administration’s misinformation campaign. Looking ahead, we’re ready to act if the administration tries to unilaterally impose its unfair terms.” He also said the signs have been up for close to two months.

The administration source also pointed to how they’d asked the Labor Board to expedite the hearing on the impasse declaration by bypassing the administrative law judge. AFSCME opposed that motion, you’ll recall. The Labor Board sided with AFSCME. As of now, there’s been no decision from the administrative law judge. “The union can’t credibly go on strike if judge hasn’t ruled,” the Rauner source said.

The source also said the union was “Likely continuing to raise money for a strike fund,” but, he admitted “that’s never been confirmed.”

…Adding Still More… From Anders Lindall…

Donald Trump is known for using the phrase “people are saying” to spread misinformation and innuendo without any proof. Now Bruce Rauner, who said he would support Trump for President, is employing the same tactic to mislead state employees and all the people of Illinois about the status of contract negotiations between his administration and our union. There never was any “Sept. 1 strike date,” and AFSCME has corrected the record time and again.

Public service workers in state government want to do their jobs and serve their communities, not be forced out on strike by Governor Rauner—but that’s exactly what he’s trying to do. Rauner’s administration walked away from negotiations, has refused to bargain since January, and is seeking to unilaterally impose terms on state employees instead of compromising with them.

State workers deserve a governor who is honest, who understands the important public services they provide, and who treats them with respect. Just because Bruce Rauner supports Donald Trump politically is no excuse for the governor to copy Trump’s ludicrous behavior.

  92 Comments      


Get your priorities straight

Wednesday, Aug 31, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Jordan Abudayyeh on Monday…

The Governor says redistricting should be the number one priority of lawmakers when they return to Springfield after the election in November. […]

Rauner says he wants redistricting reform passed before he can agree to a comprehensive budget deal that will include a tax hike.

Rauner did say the second priority should be pension reform, after the Teachers Retirement System voted to lower their expected investment returns, meaning the state will be on the hook for hundreds of millions more when it comes time to make the pension payment.

* From the governor’s Tuesday appearance on Channel 7…

We’ve got to have financial discipline and we need reforms to grow our economy. That’s the number one priority.

…Adding…  Today, Gov. Rauner said a budget deal, along with property tax reforms, would be worked out after the election and that redistricting reform and term limits should be included in the deal.

Raw audio…

  36 Comments      


*** UPDATED x5 *** Why is the media ignoring this lawsuit?

Wednesday, Aug 31, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Most of the mainstream media continues to ignore this story…

Five groups, led by the ACLU, are asking a federal judge today to preserve Election Day registration in local polling places in advance of the November presidential election. U.S. District Judge Samuel Der-Yeghiayan is presiding over the case.

The argument, from the ACLU: “The American Civil Liberties Union of Illinois, the Chicago Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, the Better Government Association, the League of Women Voters of Illinois and the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform in Harlan v. Scholtz, an effort by a political candidate to block implementation of the current EDR system approved by the legislature, piloted during the 2014 general election, and used in the March 2016 primary election. “This election has generated interest and fervor across the nation,” said Colleen K. Connell, Executive Director of the ACLU of Illinois. ‘Eliminating Election Day registration in local precincts so close to an election could leave thousands of people unable to vote.’”

Unmentioned above is that the lawsuit was filed by an arm of the Bruce Rauner-allied Illinois Policy Institute. The group wants the federal court to halt all precinct-level election day voter registration this year because smaller counties are only required to provide a central location for election day registration, while larger counties are required to provide in-precinct election day registration. To them, that’s not fair.

* From the brief…

If the Court determines that preliminary injunctive relief is required, it should extend Election Day registration at polling places in low-population counties, rather than deprive voters in high-population counties of that opportunity. Such a remedy would support, rather than undermine, the public interest in allowing qualified voters to vote, would appropriately respect legislative intent, and would more directly remedy the plaintiffs’ alleged injuries. […]

(T)he requested injunction will overturn voters’ reasonable expectations. In preparation for November’s election, voter education and get-out-the-vote organizations have undertaken massive voter education campaigns, getting the message out to thousands of voters that they can vote on Election Day even if they have not registered or their registration is out of date. Those voters have every right to rely on a state statute guaranteeing their right to vote at their local polling place on Election Day. Turning those voters away at the polls would betray those expectations. Voters in high-population counties – including both Republican and Democratic leaning counties – would be confused at precinct polling places and face long lines at EDR sites, assuming that they make it to an EDR site at all. Meanwhile, short- staffed election personnel would have to spend significant additional resources in assisting voters at both types of locations, all thanks to plaintiffs’ decision to file suit more than a year after the statute’s effective date and less than three months before the election.

Moreover, the burden of an injunction limiting EDR is likely to fall disproportionately on identifiable sub-groups. For example, the research surveyed by plaintiffs’ expert suggests that those most likely to be disenfranchised by such an injunction include “the young, the residentially mobile, and those with moderate level of income and education.” Additionally, although plaintiffs do not mention it, the Fourth Circuit recently found that the elimination of same-day registration unlawfully discriminated against African Americans. The Court noted that “African American voters disproportionately used same-day registration when it was available,” and that African Americans “are more likely to move between counties and thus are more likely to need to re-register.” The possibility of a disproportionate racial impact is another reason the public interest weighs heavily against the proposed injunction.

Finally, the plaintiffs incorrectly assert that “a preliminary injunction would simply preserve the status quo ante.” The current EDR system went into effect in June 2015 and was in place for the March 2016 primary election. Plaintiffs’ proposed remedy would disrupt the status quo. […]

Shutting down EDR at precinct polling places in high-population counties will deny many qualified voters the right to vote, in derogation of the public interest. The plaintiffs have the burden of proving that (1) allowing those citizens to vote will cause the plaintiffs irreparable harm; and (2) the alleged harm to plaintiffs outweighs the harm to those citizens. They have made no such showing. […]

In this case, an injunction requiring low-population counties to provide EDR at all polling places would be far more respectful of state legislative policy judgments than an injunction prohibiting high-population counties from doing so. The plaintiffs would have this Court order a direct violation of state statute: Counties that are required by Illinois law to provide EDR at polling places may not do so. By contrast, an injunction extending EDR to all counties would be wholly within the bounds of existing state law, which already allows the low-population counties to offer EDR at polling places. The choice is between ordering some counties to do something that state law prohibits, or ordering other counties to do something that state law allows.

We’ve seen lots of stories this week about a mythical Russian government hack on the state board of elections, and almost nothing this month about a very real lawsuit that could have a serious impact on election day.

Odd.

*** UPDATE 1 ***  The attorney general also filed a brief yesterday. Click here to read it.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Another amicus brief was separately filed by a coalition that includes Asian-Americans Advancing Justice, Common Cause, Change Illinois, Illinois PIRG and ICIRR. Click here to read it.

*** UPDATE 3 *** The federal judge also allowed Cook County to intervene. Click here to read its brief.

*** UPDATE 4 *** The Illinois Policy Institute’s latest filing is here.

*** UPDATE 5 *** The League of Women Voters’ press release about its amicus brief is here.

  10 Comments      


Moody’s likes the TRS move, but says it’s still $1.5 billion short

Wednesday, Aug 31, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune…

A key ratings agency said the decision by the Illinois Teachers’ Retirement System to lower its expected rate of return was “a positive,” even though it means the cash-strapped state will have to find hundreds of millions of dollars more to pay into the pension program for teachers who live outside of Chicago.

The decision by the system’s board to alter the rate of return on investments from 7.5 percent to 7 percent was made despite opposition from Gov. Bruce Rauner, who characterized it as a rushed decision that puts taxpayers on the hook. It was an odd position for the Republican governor, who has long criticized state and city government for kicking the can down the road on financial issues.

But Moody’s Investors Service said the change was “a positive” despite increasing financial pressure on the state in the near term, saying the move would “lower exposure to volatile investment performance.” Moody’s estimated that if the new, lower rate had been in effect for the budget year that began July 1, the state’s required employer contribution would have been $4.3 billion, roughly $421 million more than if the assumed rate of return stayed at 7.5 percent.

* But it’s not all good news. From Moody’s Investors Service’s David Jacobson…

However, even under the lower 7% discount rate, Moody’s estimates Illinois’ contributions would remain roughly $1.5 billion below our “tread water” indicator. Our “tread water” indicator equals the sum of employer service cost (called the “normal cost” for actuarial funding) plus interest on the unfunded liability, using reported assumptions. In the most recent TRS valuation report, actuaries projected that reported unfunded liabilities will continue growing until 2030 under the statutory funding formula.

Oy.

…Adding… Related…

* Amend the state constitution to cut public pensions?: Higher taxes may be needed along with other changes, Baise said. But what’s really needed is to change a clause in the state constitution that the Illinois Supreme Court repeatedly has said fully protects pension benefits some say the state no longer can afford. “In what world do we live in where a $100 billion-plus pension obligation can be explained away by saying ‘It’s in the constitution’?” Baise asked. “A constitutional provision that was drafted in 1970 cannot and must not bankrupt this great state.” In a later interview, Baise conceded that the courts might balk at such an amendment. And getting it by voters would be no snap. But change nonetheless is needed, he said. “Democrats and Republicans have both got to say, ‘We need to get this problem under control,’ ” he said. “Nothing is so sacrosanct it can’t change.”

  96 Comments      


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