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Rauner wants Senate to “stay in Springfield and negotiate a balanced budget alongside structural reforms”

Thursday, Mar 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Senate passed an appropriations bill today on party lines that the governor does not like, to say the least. From Gov. Rauner’s office…

“Senate Democrats today admitted that this bill would do nothing to help higher education, MAP students or social services because there is no money to pay for it. Rather than adding billions to our debt and risk further delaying payments to social service providers, the General Assembly needs to stay in Springfield and negotiate a balanced budget alongside structural reforms that create jobs and grow our economy.”

They aren’t staying. Spring break has sprung. And considering the dueling press releases from yesterday, no negotiations are gonna happen for a while anyway.

* We’ll let Sen. Gary Forby’s press release stand for the Democrats…

Southern Illinois University and other state universities would finally get state support and potentially scale back program cuts and layoffs thanks to legislation Senator Gary Forby (D-Benton) supported Thursday in the Illinois Senate.

Forby helped the Senate approve legislation that includes $185 million in support for SIU. The vote comes just days after university leaders warned lawmakers that deep cuts and layoffs were coming because the state had stopped supporting state schools.

“State schools deserve state support,” Forby said. “SIU is the economic engine of our region. We must work hard to keep this institution open and keep jobs in Southern Illinois. The fact that more than 300 faculty and administrative professionals could be laid off is outrageous.”

The proposal Forby supported also cements an Amtrak deal to keep trains running through Carbondale and elsewhere in the state.

Gov. Rauner and state transportation officials announced a deal with Amtrak in February. However, because the governor last year vetoed the budget that includes Amtrak funding, he had no spending authority to honor that contract. The legislation Forby helped pass gives the governor the authority to honor that contract.

“Amtrak is a vital transportation option. Thousands of SIU students and staff rely on it along with tourists coming to enjoy all Southern Illinois has to offer. I’m glad the governor abandoned his efforts to slash Amtrak service and will now have the ability to back up the contract he signed,” said Forby.

The measure, Senate Bill 2059, passed the Senate with a vote of 39 to 18 and will now go to the House for consideration.

…Adding… OK, I think Sen. Daniel Biss’ press release does a better job of countering the governor’s position, so here it is…

Sen. Daniel Biss (D-Evanston) joined Democratic lawmakers Thursday in offering the Rauner administration guidance on spending priorities by voting for an appropriations bill that authorizes payments for the state’s human service providers, universities and more as the budget impasse drags on.

“Right now 90 percent of Illinois government is moving along on autopilot because of court orders and consent decrees. The other 10 percent is on the verge of shutting down. That 10 percent is just as vital as the other 90 percent,” Biss said.

The Senate approved legislation Thursday that authorizes Gov. Bruce Rauner to meet the state’s contractual obligations with human service providers and Amtrak rail service, pay for universities and colleges, and put money toward libraries, rape crisis centers, autism programs, homelessness, after-school programs, school construction grants, job training, mental health services, medical screenings and research, local tourism and more.

As Gov. Rauner’s impasse with the Legislature over a state budget continues, human service providers statewide are closing their doors because the state has not paid them since July. The same is true for public universities around the state.

“What’s being allowed to happen in Illinois is completely irrational and patently unfair. We need a spending plan, we need to hammer out a way to pay for it and we need to do what’s right for Illinois before it’s too late to recover,” Biss said.

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*** UPDATED x1 *** A different take on out-migration

Thursday, Mar 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Constant state tax hike proponent Ralph Martire…

The problem is anti-tax zealots continually bombard the media with red herrings designed to sway public opinion against supporting the tax increases which the evidence indicates Illinois sorely needs. One of the most common canards is the ever-popular claim that higher tax rates kill jobs and the economy. Great rhetoric, that. It just doesn’t survive scrutiny. Consider that major, peer-reviewed studies by the Small Business Association, Congressional Budget Office, University of Missouri and the right-leaning CATO Institute and Kaufman Foundation for Entrepreneurship all found no statistically meaningful correlation between tax policy on the one hand and job/economic growth on the other. More recently, Kansas cut taxes and saw its economy nosedive, while California and Minnesota increased taxes and saw strong economic growth.

Then there’s the increasingly popular claim — also false — that the temporary tax increases of 2011 prompted Illinoisans to flee — running off to “business friendly” states like Indiana. After reviewing the data, however, a recent report by KDM Consulting found these claims simply didn’t hold water. Indeed, net out-migration is nothing new in Illinois — occurring every year but one since 1925, while Illinois’ net out-migration rate actually fell in 2011, the first year of the temporary tax increase.

Yes, more people move from Illinois to Indiana than the other way around, because Illinois has more people than Indiana. However, a greater proportion of Indiana’s population moves to Illinois than vice versa. Same holds true for Gov. Scott Walker’s Wisconsin, by the way. Which means the contention that Illinois’ temporary tax increases caused people to leave in droves is just so much malarkey.

* From that KDM Consulting study’s executive summary…

* Illinois’ out-migration is nothing new. The state has seen net out-migration every year but one since 1925.

* Illinois’ out-migration is overstated if international migration is ignored. Otherwise migrants from other countries are not counted when they move to Illinois, but are counted when they move out of Illinois to other parts of the country. Including international migration reduces net migration out of Illinois by one-third.

* Both in-migration and out-migration are tied to the economic cycle. People move when times are good and sit tight when they are bad. The 2011 income tax rate increases came as Illinois was moving out of recession, and migration could have been expected to increase.

* Illinois’ migration pattern is similar to those of its neighboring states. Illinoisans tend to move to the same states as do residents of Indiana and Wisconsin.

* Many migrants don’t move far. Illinois’ largest out-migration is to Indiana. Indiana’s and Wisconsin’s largest out-migration is to Illinois.

* Illinois is a large state so out-migration in absolute numbers is large. However, a larger percentage of both Indiana’s and Wisconsin’s population moves to Illinois than vice versa.

* Out-migration from Illinois to Indiana and Wisconsin has declined.

* Illinois net out-migration rates fell in 2011, the first year of the income tax rate increase, but increased significantly in 2014.

The full study is here.

*** UPDATE *** From the Cato Institute…

Rich,

Just to set the record straight, Ralph Martire certainly doesn’t capture the views of Cato Institute scholars in his commentary on tax policy.

Many factors determine a state’s economic vitality, to be sure, so it would be foolish to claim that taxes are the only thing that matters. However, it would be equally foolish to claim that taxes don’t matter. There is a wealth of academic literature showing, on the margin, that higher tax burdens and higher tax rates lead to less income growth, less job growth, and reduced competitiveness at the state level.

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Unclear on the overall concept

Thursday, Mar 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Among other Senate Republicans, Sen. Chapin Rose talked to reporters today…

Rose says to hold a kid in Paris IL hostage, to protect CPS, is absolutely wrong - pure and simple. #EducationFirstIL

— ILSenateGOP (@ILSenateGOP) March 17, 2016

OK, but what about all the other budget hostages? That’s fine and dandy?

…Adding… Wordslinger in comments…

If you’ll recall, the threat of a mutiny by some GOP House members is what caused Rauner to cave and release the local government hostages.

It’s amazing to me that GOP House members don’t realize how much power they have right now. They could dictate budget terms to both Rauner and the Dems.

The same goes for some Senate Republicans, but the House GOP has been the most insistent about releasing some of the impasse hostages, and not just the local government units, either.

But they’re gonna have to push their leader hard…

“On Wednesday morning, the intensity in Springfield is going to get a lot higher,” said House Minority Leader Jim Durkin, Republican of Western Springs.

“It’s been a rough environment and it won’t get any easier,” Durkin said. “We must win seats. Last year the Democrats proposed a budget deal that was $4 billion in the red, and they play the victims in this. It’s ridiculous. But this is a critical election.”