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Bailey skips all questions, while Pritzker dodges three

Tuesday, Oct 18, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Hmm…

The Chicago Sun-Times and WBEZ asked 19 questions of the three gubernatorial candidates on the Nov. 8 ballot in an effort to easily show voters the differences between the candidates.

Only incumbent Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker completed the questionnaire.

Republican state Sen. Darren Bailey and Libertarian Scott Schluter did not answer the questions.

Pritzker answered most, but not all of the questions. Here are the three questions he skipped…

Would you favor permanently abolishing the state sales tax on gas?

Would you favor permanently abolishing the state sales tax on food and beverages?

Would you favor mandating the COVID-19 vaccine for Illinois students in the near future?

Hmm. Maybe somebody can ask that at tonight’s debate.

…Adding… He didn’t provide “Yes” or “No” answers to those questions, but he did provide some written responses…

I am open to having conversations with the General Assembly about eliminating the state sales tax on gas, but we must ensure that critical projects and priorities are not threatened due to its elimination.

Sales tax revenue on groceries is collected by the state but is distributed to local governments. None of the revenue goes to the state. My tax relief plan in effect today eliminates the grocery tax by replacing the local revenue with state revenue. Working with local government, the state should consider the possibility of eliminating it altogether.

I’ve worked hard to protect the lives and health of all Illinoisans, including students. In fact, I kept our schools open while protecting the school communities during the worst moments of the pandemic. If re-elected, I will continue to assess the best options for keeping our students safe from the spread of COVID-19.

* Pritzker answered “Yes” to this question…

Do you support Illinois’ tax credit scholarship program that provides financial support for students to attend private and parochial schools?

As you may remember, he promised to end that tax credit program during the 2018 campaign. Here’s Pritzker’s explanation…

My main focus with respect to K-12 education is ensuring that there is sufficient funding for all children to receive a quality education, regardless of their zip code. That’s why I’ve dedicated an additional $1.3 billion toward public education during my term. With assurance from the advocates for Invest in Kids that they will support increased public school funding, my budgets have ultimately included the relatively small Invest in Kids Scholarship Program.

* He answered “No” to this question: “Would you favor changing the state constitution to allow for the diminishment of public employee pensions?”…

Many Illinoisans spend their entire careers contributing money to a pension fund with a promise that they’ll get that money back. I firmly believe that’s a promise that can’t be broken.

* This was his explanation for why he opposed bringing back the state’s parental notification of abortion law…

The repeal of parental notification was essential to protect society’s most vulnerable children: minors who are victims of rape and incest, victims who are poor, and victims of physical abuse at home. Those are the women and girls who were punished by this law which could lead to pregnant teens being kicked out, cut off or forced to have a child against their will. It put undue burdens on young people who didn’t have the necessary resources, whose parent may be in prison, or who are homeless.

Discuss.

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*** UPDATED x1 *** Bailey claims own poll shows him two points down, but Pritzker camp calls the survey “junk”

Tuesday, Oct 18, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Background is here if you need it. From ABC 7’s story on the Illinois Broadcasters Association poll which has JB Pritzker leading Darren Bailey by 22 points…

“It’s really bad news for Darren Bailey. At this point in the campaign, he should be shrinking the lead, not seeing it grow. Pritzker’s putting some distance between himself and Bailey, significant distance and it would be very difficult, if this poll is accurate for Bailey to make up that ground in the next few weeks,” said ABC7 Political Analyst Laura Washington.

The Bailey campaign scoffed at those latest numbers and said their own internal polling shows the race is much closer.

“This is not a legitimate poll. It’s an internet survey and anyone who cares about honest journalism would do a better job of disseminating information to the people. Our polling shows this race is close because JB Pritzker has failed Illinoisans. Darren Bailey is focused on making Illinois safer and more affordable for everyone and we’re confident voters will choose a better direction for Illinois on Election Day,” said Bailey’s campaign spokesperson, Joe DeBose.

* Fox 32…

A spokesman for state Sen. Bailey called the results, “laughable.” The survey was conducted from Oct. 5 to Oct. 11.

7 days ain’t great. I’ll give them that. And the IBA has been less than transparent about the poll’s methodology.

* NBC 5

Mark Harris, a strategist for Bailey, dismissed the findings of the poll, saying that internal polls show the state senator just two points behind Pritzker.

“It coincides with the national environment getting better for Republicans,” he told NBC 5 Political Reporter Mary Ann Ahern. “We’re very confident that this is a close race and our data is showing it getting closer, and I don’t think JB Pritzker would be spending $100 million-plus if he thought this were a 20-point race.”

The Pritzker campaign fired back after the poll’s release, calling the razor-thin margin in Bailey’s internal polling “junk.”

“Darren Bailey’s desperation is showing,” a campaign spokesperson told NBC 5. “Just like the junk internal poll he tried to pass off last month, these numbers are wildly-off-base and inconsistent with all other public polling. Voters know Darren Bailey is too extreme for Illinois, and those who haven’t already voted early for Governor Pritzker will undoubtedly reject Bailey in November.”

The Bailey poll is here. No regional breakdowns and no question asking respondents about past election behavior, which I think is a decent way to check for accuracy. The IBA poll asked about geography, but not past votes.

…Adding… A commenter points out that Bailey’s poll uses a universe of 71 percent white people. Illinois is 62 percent white.

Also, Pritzker never lets off the gas. He didn’t ease up during the 2018 primary, even though he was safely ahead. He never slowed down during the 2018 general against a weak and unpopular Republican incumbent in a big Democratic year. And even after Richard Irvin dropped to third place during the 2022 GOP primary, Pritzker kept right on spending cash.

* Anyway, the Downstate numbers in two of the news media polls are odd. The WGN poll had Bailey ahead by just two points, 45-43 in Downstate. The WBEZ/Sun-Times poll had Downstate at a 40-40 tie. I’d be very curious to see what the IBA’s crosstabs show for that region. But, again, they’re being less than transparent.

*** UPDATE *** Dan Proft press release…

Don’t dismiss this bogus poll. Remember it.

This is how the corrupt and incompetent state-run Chicago press corps works. Use some leftist org like IL Broadcasters Assn to cook up a poll they can then report as ‘news’ to drive the outcome they desire on behalf of their fellow travelers in office. This is unadulterated fake news. RVs not likely voters. +17 on the generic ballot for Dems. There is no scenario in which that is remotely close and everyone who knows anything about polling and turnout modeling in IL knows what I’m saying is correct.

The generic ballot is + Dem in the single digits and trending toward the low single digits–at its height this cycle is was +9 Dems. Correspondingly, Bailey and the other statewides have been following that trend to where they are in striking distance depending on who turns out.

Bailey is the underdog. Of course he is. Every GOP statewide candidate in Illinois is. This trash poll dutifully reported by fake news outlets like WGN–yes, fake news outlets–is an effort to squelch out hope. Talk about voter suppression. They want to quell even the remotest signs of a popular revolt whether it’s over the Purge Law, confiscatory taxes, or the race and gender hustle in schools. Abandon any notion you have any control over your life and any ability to change it. Cede your sovereignty to the Dem Socialists as we have. Don’t think. Follow. That’s their message. They thrive on your fatalism. In fact, the only way people like Pritzker stay in office is if sensible people throw in the towel.

Remember this poll and the useful idiots these Pritzker apparatchiks in the fake news business consider you to be. This is so much bigger than even the governor’s race. Make a decision as to whether or not you want the leadership of virtually every civic, cultural, and educational institution in Illinois to continue lying to you with impunity. On November 8, tell the purveyors of acceptable lies you find them decidedly unacceptable. Use this egregious attempt to gaslight you to stoke the revolt that fells the current political power structure and sends an unmistakable message to the next one: We are in charge. We have some simple demands. We want a better life in Illinois. You’d better meet those demands or you’re next.

Ah, yes, fomenting anger to threaten the news media and “every civic, cultural, and educational institution in Illinois.” Lovely.

59 Comments

Live coverage

Tuesday, Oct 18, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive…

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*** UPDATED x1 *** IBA poll: Pritzker up by 22; Duckworth leads by 19; Raoul ahead by 18

Monday, Oct 17, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* NBC 5…

In the governor’s race, Pritzker holds a commanding lead in the poll, picking up 49.7% of the vote. State Sen. Darren Bailey, the Republican nominee in the race, trails by 22 points at 27.7%, while Libertarian candidate Scott Schluter is at 6.3%. […]

The story was similar in two other statewide races, according to the poll. Incumbent Attorney General Kwame Raoul holds a 42.6-to-25.2% lead over Republican contender Thomas DeVore, while Libertarian candidate Dan Robin is polling at 5.7%.

A large chunk of voters, 22.3%, are undecided in the race, while 4.2% say they won’t vote for any of the candidates on the board.

In the race for Illinois’ Senate seat, incumbent Sen. Tammy Duckworth holds a 48.2-to-28.5% lead over Republican challenger Kathy Salvi. Libertarian Bill Redpath received 5.5% of the vote, while 14.2% of voters are undecided in the race.

According to the story, this Research America, Inc. poll of 1,000 registered voters has a 3.1 percent margin of error. No dates were mentioned in the piece.

*** UPDATE *** Toplines are here. (Hat tip to MrJM)

…Adding… Some more questions…

Q9. Do you feel the issue of crime will have a positive or negative impact for…?

J.B. Pritzker

Positive impact 12.7%
Negative impact 20.3%
No Opinion / No answer 6.1%
Crime not a top issue 60.9%

Darren Bailey

Positive impact 15.8%
Negative impact 10.4%
No Opinion / No answer 12.9%
Crime not a top issue 60.9%

It’s just not moving the needle, even though 39 percent rated crime as one of their top three issues.

14 Comments

Campaign notebook

Monday, Oct 17, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I asked both the Democratic Party of Illinois and the Illinois Republican Party this morning whether they’d been contacted by the FBI about this and never heard back…

Chinese government hackers are scanning U.S. political party domains ahead of next month’s midterm elections, looking for vulnerable systems as a potential precursor to hacking operations, and the FBI is making a big push to alert potential victims to batten down the hatches.

Over the past week, FBI agents in field offices across the country have notified some Republican and Democratic state party headquarters they might be targets of the Chinese hackers, according to party and U.S. officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.

None of the potential targets were hacked or breached, the officials said.

* This means next to nothing. Most of Pritzker’s money is sheltered off-shore, so we don’t really know how much he’s making…

Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Illinois first lady M.K. Pritzker reported earning more than $18.5 million in adjusted gross income last year - a hefty bump from the $5.1 million the billionaire couple reported in 2020.

Pritzker’s campaign on Friday released partial 2021 state and federal tax returns, which also show the Pritzkers paid $4,733,028 in federal taxes and $883,780 in state taxes. […]

The campaign also said trusts benefitting Pritzker paid $14.6 million in Illinois taxes and $68.6 million in federal taxes in 2021. The Pritzkers also made $1.07 million in personal charitable donations last year.

The Daily Mail’s take…

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker TRIPLED his income to $18.5m in 2021: Democrat billionaire heir to Hyatt hotels with plush property portfolio doesn’t take salary from his gubernatorial role - and already pumped $145m into his midterms campaign

* AG Raoul makes a good point in Politico…

Republican nominee for Attorney General Tom DeVore has called on Democratic AG Kwame Raoul to return the $1 million campaign donation he received in 2018 from the Friends of Michael J. Madigan committee. DeVore describes Madigan as “the poster child for political corruption in Illinois,” according to a statement.

Raoul responded: “That money was donated by the former head of the Democratic Party of Illinois four years ago, and it was spent four years ago. Since then, I’ve accepted donations from the new chairwoman of the party and other supporters, and I’m certainly not going to hand over those donations to someone who is under federal indictment,” Raoul said in a statement.

* ABC 7 on Friday…

There was a scuffle Thursday night on State Street and two CTA patrol volunteers were arrested.

Police say the group had parked illegally up and down the center of the street, right outside the ABC7 studios. […]

After being asked to move their vehicles, police say one of the volunteers hit a patrol car.

A second person was taken into custody for trying to stop the arrest.

If you watch the video, the “volunteers” appear to be from Ex-Cons for Community and Social Change (ECCSC). If you walked between the Statehouse and the Stratton Building in April, you likely caught sight of at least one of those cars. Also, click here to watch ECCSC leader Tyrone Muhammad smash the windows of a business he accused of being racist. And, of course, Muhammad disrupted a trans rights event in Chicago. And this is from July…

Just sayin, but sometimes folks get into “violence prevention” in order to project their own power onto others.

Anyway, Tom DeVore announced a couple days after the State Street police scuffle that he’d be hanging out with ECCSC…

Watch for us tomorrow night. These men have offered to allow me to tag along and witness their efforts to try and keep…

Posted by Thomas DeVore on Friday, October 14, 2022

The night came to an end. A lot to process from tne last several hours. Thank you Tyrone Muhammad

Posted by Thomas DeVore on Sunday, October 16, 2022

…Adding… Sherman is also with ECCSC…

A nine-time convicted felon who was on felony bail for allegedly battering an Illinois State trooper during a protest that featured Chicago’s “Dreadhead Cowboy,” accidentally shot himself in the butt at a Bucktown gas station, and then lied about what happened, prosecutors said Thursday.

Gregory Sherman, 43, works full-time as an anti-violence worker, “out there on the street, trying to lower the criminal and dangerous issues that are going on in our community,” his private defense attorney said. […]

But Sherman won’t be able to go home right away. Beach also ordered him held without bail for violating the bond conditions in the pending aggravated battery of a peace officer case, which is a story in itself.

In May 2021, Sherman, Adam “Dreadhead Cowboy” Hollingsworth, and three others were arrested after allegedly obstructing traffic on the Dan Ryan Expressway to raise awareness of violence against children.

* Illinois early vote totals…

The @illinoissbe has updated early vote totals (10/17/22):
Total VBM requested: 729,600
Total VBM returned: 139,977
Total VBM outstanding: 589,623
Return Rate: 19%
Total Early Vote: 37,619
Total Grace Period: 285
Total Already Voted: 177,881https://t.co/44ga6AxRbY

— IL Election Data (@ILElectionData) October 17, 2022

* Chicago early vote totals…

The Early Vote total stands at 2,037 ballots cast.

Additionally, 11,817 Vote By Mail ballots have been returned to the Board – total VBM applications stands at 181,234.

The grand total is 13,854 ballots cast so far in Chicago for the November 8th General Election.

* IL FOP…

The Illinois Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) State Lodge, representing more than 34,000 active duty and retired law enforcement officers, has asked Third District Supreme Court Justice candidate Mary Kay O’Brien to stop using campaign literature that claims she has the FOP’s endorsement. The FOP has, in fact, officially endorsed the incumbent in the race, Justice Michael Burke.

“Whether O’Brien’s FOP endorsement claim is a mistake or is deliberate, the simple fact is that it’s not true and is misleading to Third District voters,” said Illinois FOP State Lodge President Chris Southwood. “We hereby call on the O’Brien campaign to cease and desist the use of any FOP logos or endorsement claims in its printed material, on-line postings and in-person events.”

A recent mailer sent by the O’Brien campaign to the residents of the new Third Supreme Court District displays an FOP logo among other logos under the heading “Proudly Endorsed by.” The Illinois FOP State Lodge unanimously endorsed her opponent, Justice Michael Burke, and only Burke is authorized to use an FOP logo for his campaign.

“As an officer of the court, O’Brien certainly knows that it is wrong to misrepresent the facts,” Southwood said. “We hope it was an honest mistake, but either way she needs to let voters know the truth.”

MKO campaign’s response…

Justice Mary Kay O’Brien received the endorsement of the Joliet Fraternal Order of Police Labor Council. The mail piece includes the logo used by the Joliet FOP on their own public pages.

Letter of endorsement is attached.

Justice O’Brien is also proudly endorsed by the Coalition of Frontline Police Officers made up of the Illinois Police Benevolent & Protective Association (“PBPA”), Metropolitan Alliance of Police (“MAP”), Illinois Council of Police and Sheriffs (“ICOPS”), and Association of Professional Police Officers (“APPO”) which represents over 20,000 active and retired law enforcement professionals across the state of Illinois.

Yeah, I dunno. The logo doesn’t say “Joliet” FOP.

…Adding… Press release…

Today, Representative Morgan, Chair of the Illinois House Jewish Caucus reacted to former President Donald Trump’s recent statements. Trump, who has a history of proliferating harmful, anti-Semitic tropes, told American Jews to “get their act together” and accused Jews of having dual loyalty to America and Israel. Unsurprisingly, Republicans met these dangerous comments with silence, and yet again failed to call out anti-Semititsm within their own ranks. Darren Bailey, who has his own history of making problematic comments about the Jewish community, was among those who remained silent.

Rep. Morgan reacted to the former president’s comments and GOP Gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey’s silence:

“Telling American Jews to “get their act together…before it is too late” is nothing short of a bigoted, antisemitic threat. Donald Trump is taking a page right out of the authoritarian playbook, and Darren Bailey’s silence on his comments speak volumes. These remarks, as well as Bailey’s continued comparison of abortion to the Holocaust, lend credence to existing harmful tropes about Jewish people and add fuel to lies espoused by extremist hate groups. Any elected official who doesn’t understand this, can’t be trusted to lead our state”, said Rep. Bob Morgan.

* Roundup from Isabel…

Final gubernatorial debate: What do Pritzker, Bailey need to say to gain support

* New Madigan charge casts a shadow on the upcoming election: Illinois Republicans are trying. The charges “will absolutely be used in House races to highlight how the web of Democratic corruption continues to grow,” said Eleni Demertzis, spokeswoman for House GOP Leader Jim Durkin. Illinois Democrats have done little to clean up their mess, even as other Democratic lawmakers continue to be charged with corruption, Demertzis said. “Nothing has actually changed in the Democratic Party of Illinois and you will certainly be seeing that narrative in the next few weeks.”

* Campaign rhetoric in Illinois Supreme Court races belies vows of impartiality: Allies attack the Republicans for being supported by anti-abortion rights groups and warn they are aggressively anti-abortion rights. A recent TV ad features a doctor who claims Curran and Burke “are too extreme” for the Illinois Supreme Court. “Pregnancies are complicated, and every situation is different,” the doctor asserts. “My job is to do what’s best for my patients.”

* Abortion rights at the forefront of Supreme Court race: It’s a race that’s become more visible on the airwaves in recent days, with Gov. J.B. Pritzker chipping $500,000 into the Rochford campaign war chest. Her backers have aired ads that highlight Curran’s long history of anti-abortion rhetoric. Rochford, meanwhile, has support from abortion rights advocacy groups and her campaign website bills her as a champion of women’s rights.

* Voters to decide on Carbondale’s ‘home rule’ status: A confusingly-worded referendum on the Nov. 8 ballot will ask Carbondale residents if they want to the retain status as a home rule community, and voters are hearing from advocates on both sides. […] “Home rule gives a city council and local administration the ability to do things much more independently of the state government,” explained longtime Southern Illinois University Carbondale political scientist John Jackson. “In essence, if the state government doesn’t prohibit something, the city can do it in home rule cities, whereas there are more constraints in non-home rule cities.”

* Editorial: Toni Preckwinkle for Cook County Board president: Fioretti, 69, who ran for mayor in 2015 and 2019 is a perennially unsuccessful candidate who also finished dead last in the 2020 primary race for state’s attorney, a race won by Foxx. We also don’t see Libertarian candidate Thea Tsatsos as offering a viable alternative. Preckwinkle isn’t likely to change much at the age of 75. But we think she has done the work to deserve voters’ support for an additional term.

* Stava-Murray, Leong both favor gun control, but issue remains contentious in 81st House race: Leong also questioned the dedication of Democratic state legislators such as Stava-Murray. “They have failed to pass legislation even though they are in the supermajority,” Leong said. “So if that’s really your passion and if it’s really your sincere desire, I think you could have done it by now.” Stava-Murray detailed her support for strengthening “red flag” laws, universal background checks, a modernization of the Firearm Owner’s Identification card system and increasing focus on mental health.