Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Monday, Jan 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

Days ahead of Gov. Pat Quinn’s State of the State address, his budget director has sent lawmakers a letter detailing “encouraging” developments on Illinois’ billions in unpaid bills.

The Sunday letter says the backlog will be $5.6 billion by fiscal year’s end, down from roughly $10 billion. Budget chief Jerry Stermer says if progress continues Illinois will be in line with “private-sector benchmarks.” […]

A budget spokesman says there isn’t a connection between the letter and Quinn’s Wednesday speech. He says Quinn will later outline budget issues.

It’s AP Chicago, and it’s a quickie Sunday story, so those unfortunate realities make this story worth a closer look to see if it’s actually true.

* From Stermer’s letter…

I am writing to you today with encouraging news. Over the past five years we have worked together and made progress on many critical issues, from reforming our pension systems to overhauling Medicaid, and we have made tough choices and focused on policies that drive our economy forward. Thanks to this collaboration, we are projecting that the state’s backlog of bills will be down to $5.6 billion at the end of this fiscal year. That is more than 43 percent lower than the $9.9 billion backlog at the peak of the recession. […]

If the outstanding bills are paid down – and not allowed to pile up again – the amount of bills making their way through the state’s payment system in any 30-day period ($3 billion or 10 percent of the state’s general-funds budget) will be in line with private-sector benchmarks. Thank you for your collaboration and feel free to contact me with questions.

* But if you look at the accompanying charts, you’ll see that the governor’s budget office actually projects that the bill backlog will be about $400 million higher at the end of this fiscal year ($5.6 billion) than it was at the end of last fiscal year ($5.2 billion).

And this is old news. At the end of March, 2013, the backlog stood at about $9.1 billion. It dropped to $5.5 billion by the end of April, 2013. It’s stayed pretty much constant since then, rising a little, falling a little, rising a little. It was as low as $4.7 billion last July, and stood at $6.4 billion by the end of this past December.

So, why tout this old news? Well, despite the denials above, this is all about setting the stage for the governor’s State of the State address. He’ll probably outline some grand new ideas and he needs to show that, fiscally, things are looking up.

In reality, it looks like the state did a good job last April paying down bills, but they remain stubbornly high now and in the foreseeable future. The budget office says they were “conservative” with their end of fiscal year projections, but it is what it is. The pile was reduced nine months ago, and it’s remained at about the same height ever since.

* Meanwhile, along those same lines, Gov. Quinn’s office touted some new pension numbers…

The Quinn administration highlighted another part of the new estimates: if the pension law withstands a legal challenge from unions, the state will see its $100 billion pension debt immediately drop by about $24 billion instead of the previous $21 billion estimate. The better-than-expected projection is being driven by last year’s improved performance of the billions of dollars the pension funds have invested.

* But…

New calculations show the state will save about $15 billion less than initially projected from the controversial major government worker pension overhaul that lawmakers and Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn approved last month. […]

Last month, House Speaker Michael Madigan championed the pension overhaul as saving $160 billion over 30 years. But when the financial minds at the pension systems covering state workers, teachers outside Chicago and public university employees took a look, the savings estimate came out to $145 billion.

The full report that the story is based on can be accessed by clicking here.

* Related…

* Quinn sure to tout pension deal in State of the State

…Adding… The Tribune has changed “The Quinn administration highlighted another part of the new estimates” to “Legislative supporters highlighted another part of the new estimates.”

Can’t speak for the Tribbies, but the Quinn administration is pointing at those unfunded liability numbers behind the scenes.

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*** UPDATED x1 *** Quote of the day

Monday, Jan 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Buried at the very end of an article about big money being poured into the gubernatorial race is this quote from Michael Keiser, who, according to the Tribune made his money selling recycled greeting cards and said he met Rauner through the charter school movement…

“I think of public employees as the ‘haves’ of current Illinois society and the ‘have-nots’ as the private-sector taxpayers. And Bruce represents the have-nots.”

*** UPDATE *** Corrected to include the correct identity of the person making the quote. I was apparently moving way too fast earlier this morning and somehow misread the story. All apologies.

Keiser wrote Rauner a $100,000 check in December. He appears to have contributed $781K to various candidates since 1994.

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*** UPDATED x3 - Brady responds - Dillard responds - Rutherford responds *** Rauner calls on opponents to speak out about impending media buys

Monday, Jan 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Bruce Rauner’s campaign sent this out earlier today…

It has been widely reported in news outlets including the Associated Press, Chicago Sun-Times and Capitol Fax that Pat Quinn’s Democratic Party and labor union allies - a coalition that has invested $10 million in Quinn’s political career - are threatening to spend millions of dollars in this year’s Republican Primary trying to pick the GOP nominee for governor who they think will be easiest to beat in November.

The Republican Governors Association called it an “outrageous act of despair” that is an “attempt to subvert the democratic process.” The Illinois GOP condemned these types of “tricks, games and campaign schemes” and said they show “a blatant disregard for the voters of Illinois.”

Despite state and national Republican leaders speaking out against the planned efforts, GOP candidates Bill Brady, Kirk Dillard, and Dan Rutherford have been silent on it.

“Republican primary voters deserve to know whether Bill Brady, Kirk Dillard, and Dan Rutherford are working together with Pat Quinn and his allies to try to hijack the Republican primary,” said Chip Englander, campaign manager for Bruce Rauner. “Will they side with grassroots Illinois Republicans who want to choose our party’s nominee, or will they side with Pat Quinn’s efforts to attack Bruce Rauner?”

“The longer they stay silent, the more obvious it is that they condone and encourage this Democratic partisan attempt to meddle in the Republican primary,” Englander added.

At the same time, local Republican Party organizations are continuing to line up with Bruce. He has already earned endorsements from the Cook County Republican Party, Cuba Township Republicans, Wauconda Township Republican Club, Hanover Township Republican Organization, Palatine Township Republican Organization, New Trier Republican Organization, Palos Township Republican Organization, Republican Club of Evanston and the Northfield Township Republican Organization.

“Local Republican leaders and grassroots activists aren’t about to let Pat Quinn’s allies subvert the Republican primary, and neither should any of the other candidates running for governor,” Englander concluded.

Not a bad move.

*** UPDATE *** Natasha Korkecki has the Dan Rutherford campaign response…

“Rutherford has absolutely no involvement in this rumored coalition. To suggest that Rutherford’s silence is ‘condoning or encouraging’ such activity is ludicrous,” said Rutherford spokesman Brian Sterling. “Anyone who has the money and wants to spend it buying TV time is entitled to their share of the airwaves. He, of all people, should recognize that. Rauner should be worrying about things he can control.”

*** UPDATE 2 *** Dillard campaign…

Dillard-Tracy Campaign Manager Glenn Hodas today issued the following statement in response to Bruce Rauner’s press release: Quinn Allies Attempting to Hijack GOP Primary. . .

“Rauner’s correct when he says ‘someone’ is hijacking the Republican Party. HE is.

“Rauner is a Democrat in sheep’s clothing. Rauner doesn’t want GOP voters to know that he voted Democrat, gave hundreds of thousands of dollars to Democrats to DEFEAT Republican candidates, and is on a first-name basis with Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel. And let’s not forget the State Journal-Register story, where Rauner admits giving $300,000 to Ed Rendell, the head of the Democrat National Committee, because Rauner, “wanted to have influence with the head of the DNC.”

“Like a hedge-fund vulture, Bruce Rauner is staging a hostile takeover of the Republican Party. Rauner reminds you of an Illinois Gordon Gecko, but with a cheap watch.”

Ouch.

*** UPDATE 3 *** Brady’s response…

“First and foremost, I have absolutely no connection to whatever efforts by third-party groups may be underway,” Brady said in a statement. “I’m working to defeat Pat Quinn and overturn the disastrous policies of Democrats that are driving Illinois jobs away.”

“Mr. Rauner fails to recognize that there are many union members – in both the public and private sectors – who are Republicans, who are disgusted with the failures of Pat Quinn, and who want to make sure their party nominates the best candidate to turn Illinois around,” he added in the statement.

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