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Not nearly enough

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Republican congressional candidate Mike Bost reported raising just $78,000 during the third quarter. Not good at all, to say the least. He spent $35K.

* In other fundraising news…

(F)ormer U.S. Rep. Bob Dold, a Republican who’s trying to reclaim his old job in the north suburban 10th District against Democratic incumbent Brad Schneider, reports raising $317,000 in the quarter ended Sept. 30 with $819,000 cash on hand.

Those are respectable totals, but the income figure was off markedly from the $546,000 Mr. Dold took in when he announced in the second quarter.

Mr. Schneider’s spokeswoman said he’ll disclose his totals tomorrow and declined to give any hints today. That’s likely not a good sign for him, but Team Dold is going to have to do better than $300K a quarter, too, from now on.

…Adding… A Schneider consultant tells me the Democrat will report raising $365,000 this quarter, the first time he’s outraised Dold.

* And one of Ann Callis’ Democratic primary opponents loaned himself some money…

Democratic congressional candidate George Gollin of Champaign has put $165,000 of his own money into his 13th Congressional District race, a report filed with the Federal Election Commission shows.

Gollin, 60, a physics professor at the University of Illinois, reported $135,509 in contributions since organizing his campaign in February. With $165,000 in what is listed as two separate loans to his campaign, Gollin now has $262,087 on hand.

He also released a poll…

The Gollin campaign also released the results of a poll by Public Policy Polling that shows both Gollin and Callis — who is backed by U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — trailing freshman U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Taylorville.

But the results are statistically similar, with Gollin trailing Davis 41 percent to 33 percent while Callis is behind the congressman, 40 percent to 35 percent. The margin of error in the poll was plus or minus 3.6 percent.

A bit early to say if those results really mean anything. Right now they’re basically just generic Dem numbers vs. an incumbent. We’ll see what Callis’ numbers show. If she has the big bucks, then her name will get out there and she should be able to pull this off.

Nate Silver, by the way, recently referred to PPP as a “dubious” polling outfit.

  13 Comments      


*** UPDATED x2 *** Gloom and doom and an eye-popping pension claim

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Bill Brady says the pension reform conference committee is still a ways from completing its work…

A partisan split is developing as Republicans — three of whom are running for higher office next year — are demanding more information on additional cost-cutting measures they’re seeking, which could take weeks.

“We know the Democrats can’t pass this on their own,” said Republican Sen. Bill Brady. “Unfortunately I don’t see anything happening legislatively for at least four weeks at the earliest.”

The AP’s story is pretty doom and gloom about the prospects for getting a deal done.

* I’m told, however, that the committee members are asking the legislative leaders to set some parameters so that the negotiations can be better defined.

And if you read between the lines, it’s not a one hundred percent no-go. For instance, buried at the bottom is this…

[Sen. Matt Murphy], a deputy Republican leader, called the latest plan “back-loaded in its current form” because it relies on future lawmakers keeping promises. But he declined to say outright whether he would vote for it or not.

“Past general assemblies’ unwillingness to do that is exactly what got us here in the first place,” Murphy said. “We only get one bite at this apple.”

The AP could’ve just as easily put Murphy’s quote at the top instead of burying it at the bottom to illustrate how it ain’t over ’til it’s over.

*** UPDATE *** WLS has more on a possible solution…

Republicans on the conference committee apparently want more savings. State Rep. Mike Zalewski of Chicago – a Democrat on the committee – says the Republicans are not making unreasonable requests.

“To maybe bring the savings number up just a little bit with respect to the cost of living, things like that, maybe an alternative to a defined contribution plan for teachers that don’t want to stay in the system their whole careers,” Zalewski said.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* Meanwhile, this is a pretty bold statement by Bruce Rauner…

He favors capping pensions that have already been earned and moving government employees to a defined benefit, 401(k)-type of retirement plan.

“It’s what’s fair and affordable,” Rauner said. “Every dollar of excess pension … is a dollar that can’t go into other things.”

Making such a change would cut the state’s liability from $100 billion to $50 billion, according to Rauner.

None of the other plans, even Speaker Madigan’s harshest proposal, comes anywhere near to cutting the unfunded liability in half. Madigan’s plan would’ve “only” cut $21 billion from the unfunded liability.

I’ve asked for an explanation and will let you know what the Rauner campaign says.

*** UPDATE *** Thanks to a commenter, the Rauner plan appears to be based on HB 3303. From the synopsis…

Amends the Illinois Pension Code. With respect to the 5 State-funded retirement systems: Provides a new funding formula for State contributions, with a 100% funding goal and amortization calculated on a level dollar amount.

Provides that no additional service credit may be accrued and no automatic increase in a retirement annuity shall be received. Provides that the pensionable salary of an active participant may not exceed that individual’s pensionable salary as of the effective date.

Provides that State-funded retirement systems shall establish self-directed retirement plans for all active participants and all employees hired on or after the effective date. Provides that all active participants shall have the option of participating in a self-directed retirement plan. Provides that these changes are controlling over any other law. Effective immediately.

* COGFA studied the impact on one system, TRS…

The Commission’s actuary performed a cost study on a proposal that is substantially similar to HB 3303. That cost study showed a long-term reduction in State contributions for TRS only (through FY 2045) of $71.4 billion, and a reduction in FY 2014 unfunded liability of $27.4 billion. However, this cost study assumed no deviation from the current statutory funding target of amassing assets that are equal to 90% of DB liabilities by FY 2045. HB 3303 changes this target to 100% by FY 2045, and it specifies a level-dollar amortization approach. These two changes would result in greater long-term savings than those previously mentioned; however, an updated actuarial study would be required to capture the precise savings associated with the funding changes.

However, the bill has just three co-sponsors, and all three (Morrison, Ives, Wheeler) are probably the furthest to the right of any House member. It ain’t exactly a popular idea.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* In other news…

As he runs for re-election, Gov. Pat Quinn is staking a lot on getting something done with pensions. He’s making a show of asking the state Supreme Court let him cancel legislators’ salaries until it’s done, and he says he won’t deal with other major issues before the General Assembly — like using tax credits to keep ADM headquartered in Illinois — until there’s what he calls a “comprehensive pension solution.”

But it’s hard to tell just what that means.

Most of the ten legislators he tasked with crafting that solution don’t even seem to know. They say he’s been largely absent … until this month. Amanda Vinicky checked in with the ten representatives and senators on a special pension committee to see how involved the governor has been as they negotiate a pension deal.

Go read the whole thing.

  44 Comments      


Dillard slams Rauner over Levine

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Bill Cameron…

[Sen. Kirk Dillard] says he has to laugh when he hears his opponent Rauner call himself an outsider. While taping “Connected to Chicago” for Sunday morning at six, Dillard connected Rauner to a now imprisoned insider.

“He had Stuart Levine on his payroll for $25,000 a month while he was hawking business from the Illinois teachers retirement system,” Dillard said. “That’s an insider to me. There are different kinds of insiders. Mr. Rauner is the worst kind of insider. He’s the one doing the buying.”

* Listen to the full Dillard response. It’s quite brutal…

* Rauner’s response via Greg Hinz…

Team Rauner shot back that Mr. Dillard “hasn’t learned from his last failed campaign that he’s better off promoting himself than attacking fellow Republicans.” The statement went on to remind voters that Mr. Dillard, who ran for governor four years ago, has accepted political contributions from some labor unions and once — in 2008 — appeared in a TV ad for a former state Senate colleague, Barack Obama, who was running for president for the first time.

The turn-the-tables response is fair politics, I guess. But it certainly doesn’t respond to the Levine matter

No, it doesn’t.

* But…

Mr. Dillard said the entire episode needs further review to determine whether Mr. Rauner engaged in “pay-to-play” politics in some way.

That’s pretty strong stuff — which would work awfully well in a TV ad, if Mr. Dillard had the money to buy lots of TV ads. He doesn’t, at least so far, but now he’s started raising the issue of the Rauner-Levine connection publicly. We’ll see if it sticks.

A well-played shot at 6 o’clock on a Sunday morning that gets almost no media coverage ain’t gonna move the needle at all.

* Related…

* ADDED: Bill Daley donors to get back 83% of their campaign cash

* Rauner and Sanguinetti in Danger of Echoing McCain and Palin

* Tracy: Illinois needs change: She touched on the standard Republican talking points about the need for tort reform and changes to the Illinois’ workman compensation and unemployment insurance systems as well as reducing the minimum wage in favor of business interests… She additionally advocated passing previously rejected legislation to place photo identification on food assistance cards or requiring drug testing for recipients of other benefits.

* Rauner pushes pensions, education reform during stop in Bloomington

* Candidate Dillard Stops by for Session at Homer Founders Club

* Rutherford, Kim host Pontiac fundraiser

* Quinn, Democrats drum up support in suburbs

  32 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Fun with numbers

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Kurt Erickson takes a closer look at the numbers used by Gov. Pat Quinn’s administration to justify closing the Warren G. Murray Developmental Center in Centralia, which cares for severely developmentally disabled people…

To bolster their argument, the state says it costs taxpayers $239,000 per year to house residents at Murray. Placing them in private facilities would cost $120,000, they estimate.

The state’s figures, however, are intellectually dishonest. Here’s why.

The cost per resident in fiscal year 2006 when Murray had 342 residents was about $130,000 per year, according to figures provided by the Illinois Auditor General’s office.

In fiscal year 2009, when there were 298 residents, the average cost was listed as $180,000 per year.

Now, with the population down to about 230 residents, the cost has skyrocketed because they haven’t reduced the number of employees at the facility.

In other words, the cost of housing residents in Murray would be significantly cheaper if they actually filled all 372 beds or reduced the number of people working there.

Excellent point.

*** UPDATE *** From DHS…

Rich,

Before Governor Quinn took office, Illinois institutionalized more people than any other state in the nation. We are now changing under the direction of the governor to improve the quality of life for people with developmental disabilities in Illinois.

We are committed to rebalancing and improving Illinois’ system of care for people with developmental disabilities. Evidence strongly suggests that residents living in smaller homes have a better quality of life and participate more in their community. Moving individuals from large, outdated institutions to community settings also saves taxpayer dollars.

To be clear, the article that published last weekend regarding the operational costs of the Murray Developmental Center in Centralia was incomplete and deserves further clarification.

There are several ways to calculate the cost per resident in a state operated developmental center (SODC). The first is a basic calculation that divides the annual spending by the average number of residents. For the Murray Developmental Center, that puts the annual cost per resident at $143,217. The other, more thorough and complete method is based on methodology and reimbursement rates used by the federal government. This method includes costs that are not included in an SODC budget but in the broader state budget, such as medication, retirement contributions, group insurance, worker’s comp, union wage increases and facility improvements. Under this comprehensive and more accurate calculation, the annual cost is about $239,934 per resident at Murray Center and approximately $120,000 in the community.

The article calls into question whether more money could be saved by cutting down the number of staff. But the reason the Illinois Department of Human Services is maintaining employee headcount during the closure process is to ensure a safe and secure transition for remaining residents. So yes, the cost of operation under the simple calculation indeed increases as the closure process continues. However, that is a small and temporary price to pay to ensure a safe facility closure. And once the transition is complete, delivery of care will not only be more cost-efficient, it will also offer people with disabilities a higher quality of life and that’s the point in the first place.

Januari Smith
Communication Manager
IL Dept. of Human Services

That response twists the essential meaning of Erickson’s piece, which is that DHS and Quinn are using these new numbers to justify closing down a state facility.

  18 Comments      


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* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
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