* Rodney Davis launched his congressional reelection bid yesterday. Sen. Dick Durbin blasted Davis on Sunday…

“He just continues to follow the tea party line in Washington,” Durbin said before a Democratic State Central Committee meeting in Springfield. “That may be good news in his Republican primary, but this is a pretty evenly divided district. Come the general election, he’ll have some questions to answer.

Actually, the 13th District has swung wildly between Democratic and Republican, depending on the year. Obama stomped John McCain 55-42. But Judy Baar Topinka beat Rod Blagojevich 48-37 in the 2006 off-year, and Bill Brady beat Pat Quinn in the next off-year election 54-37. On average, I suppose, it’s “evenly divided,” but in reality, it swings with the national winds.

One reason for this swing is the large number of college students in the district. It includes the U of I, ISU and tons of other schools.

* The wild swings back and forth are a big reason why Rep. Jay Hoffman and other bigtime Democrats decided to take a pass last year. They thought they could win last year, but figured they would have real trouble being reelected in Obama’s final off-year election.

That’s why both Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato have this race as “Lean Republican.” The only reason so far why it isn’t rated as “Likely Republican” is because the Democrats plan to spend lots of cash there. But I’m not sure they can pull this off.

…Adding… Some folks seem unclear on the concept here. Those election results are based on the new district lines, not the old ones. So, yeah, Davis had a tough race last year, but if the pattern holds, it won’t be nearly as tough next year.