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NBC Poll: Pritzker leads Rauner by 16 points

Tuesday, Aug 21, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Exclusive NBC News/Marist poll

Pritzker 46
Rauner 30
Jackson 6
McCann 4

They didn’t say during the broadcast, but that would be 14 percent undecided [. So Pritzker’s lead would be greater than the undecideds.

Rauner’s unfavorable rating is at 52 percent, according to the poll. His unfavorable rating is about twice the size of his favorables.

Pritzker is at 38 favorable, 35 unfavorable.

Pritzker leads among women and men. Pritzker also leads everywhere but the collar counties. But Rauner is only at 40 percent in the collars.

* From the story just posted online

In addition to the race for governor, 49 percent of respondents preferred a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 35 percent preferred Republicans in charge. The state has at least three tight U.S. House races slated for November.

The results also indicated 56 percent of registered voters in Illinois disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job so far. In 2016, Trump got 38 percent of the vote in Illinois.

“President Trump and his job rating at 31 percent is dragging down Republicans up and down the ticket potentially,” Murray said.

Twenty-seven percent of Illinois voters named economy and jobs as the most important factor in their vote. Another 19 percent said health care, 14 percent said immigration and 11 percent said federal taxes and spending, according to the poll.

* The poll was taken August 12-16. But this is odd and I don’t understand it

The NBC/Marist poll of Illinois was conducted Aug. 12-16 of 831 adults (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.2 percentage points) and 734 registered voters (plus-minus 4.4 percentage points).

I’ll ask for clarification.

…Adding… The crosstabs are here, along with an answer to my question.

…Adding… The crosstabs show the results shown above are for registered voters and undecideds are at 13 percent. “Other” is at 2 percent.

  44 Comments      


Because… Madigan!

Tuesday, Aug 21, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Again with this?…



…Adding… March of 2014

“I apologize but we may have to go through a little rough times and we have to do what Ronald Reagan did with the air traffic controllers,” Rauner said referencing Reagan’s decision in 1981 to fire 11,000 striking air traffic controllers.

“We sort of have to do a do-over and shut things down for a little while, that’s what we’re going to do,” Rauner said. […]

“It’s going to be rough. It’s going to be hardball but I’m used to that. I’ve transformed a lot of business organizations in my life and I can bring that same discipline in Springfield,” he said.

* April of 2015

Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner kicked off a campaign-style statewide tour Monday by indicating he’ll try to “leverage” the state’s money woes into securing a series of pro-business changes from a General Assembly controlled by Democrats likely to fiercely oppose them.

The first stop was at Tribune Tower, where the governor sought to frame up the last seven scheduled weeks of the spring session during an appearance before the Chicago Tribune Editorial Board. The governor and legislative leaders will try to craft a new budget before the May 31 adjournment deadline against the backdrop of a projected deficit of $6 billion and Rauner calling for major cuts.

“Crisis creates opportunity. Crisis creates leverage to change … and we’ve got to use that leverage of the crisis to force structural change,” said Rauner, borrowing from a political philosophy famously coined by his friend Rahm Emanuel that “you never want a serious crisis to go to waste.”

…Adding… June of 2015

Gov. Bruce Rauner says a partial state government shutdown is worth the pain if it brings fundamental change to business and politics in Illinois.

The Republican told reporters Tuesday morning that “change is hard … but we need to have change.'’

* March of 2017

“It came down to three things: workers’ comp, parity in (the length of) the income tax and property tax and budget cuts. Cullerton’s position is, ‘This is the deal, take it or leave it,’ and as far as we’re concerned, it’s dead and there’s nothing more for us to do because we’re not going to take a bad deal and neither is the Senate (Republican) caucus,” [the Rauner confidant] said.

Radogno responded that no one in the governor’s office “speaks for the Senate (GOP) caucus.” She said the Senate’s grand bargain plan was “not and never has been a ‘take it or leave it’ from the Senate president and insisted talks on a “final version” were still taking place.

* December of 2017

Some Republicans joined Democrats in July to end the impasse by passing a major income tax hike and spending plan over Rauner’s vetoes. As a result, the governor said the state had “lost” an opportunity for economic change.

“We had the possibility of a transformation for the state with the crisis that we had — if we had a principled caucus. It’s the primary reason I ran. We had the opportunity for a massive transformation. We lost that,” the Republican governor said.

  25 Comments      


Rep. Miller-Walsh slammed for “scrubbed” Facebook page

Tuesday, Aug 21, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Background is here. Monday press release from Illinois Sixth Congressional District Democrats

On Saturday, Helene Walsh was appointed by Lake County Republican Chairman Mark Shaw to represent the 51st District in the Illinois House, despite her controversial views on guns, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, civil rights and more.

Today, Helene Walsh scrubbed her Facebook page of all radical views and photos.

“Helene Walsh should be straight with the voters of the 51st District. If, for instance, she believes that children should be separated from parents who are applying for legal asylum, she shouldn’t be afraid to say so,” said Nancy Shepherdson, Sixth District Democratic State Central Committeewoman and Co-Chair of the Illinois Sixth Congressional District Democrats. Walsh deleted a July 3, 2018 post that stated: “Don’t want to be separated from your kids…don’t break our laws.”

Patrick Watson Sixth District Democratic State Central Committeeman and Co-Chair of the Illinois Sixth Congressional District Democrats, noted that Walsh also deleted extreme racist, xenophobic and divisive comments posted this year. Watson noted: “If Helene Walsh wants to represent us, she should tell us that she believes without holding back or trying to hide behind platitudes.”

The Helene Walsh Facebook page was scrubbed after a statement was released by Adam Didech, county board candidate in the 20th District, condemning Walsh’s extremely candid and divisive comments.

The seat Helene Walsh has been appointed to was left open after State Representative Nick Sauer resigned two weeks ago when allegations of “catfishing for men” using an ex-girlfriend’s nude photos were made public. Helene Walsh is the wife of former Congressman and right-wing talk show host Joe Walsh.

The Illinois 51st District stretches from western Waukegan and western Mundelein in the north to Vernon Hills, Long Grove and Barrington in the south, with most of Libertyville in its center. Helene Walsh will run against Democrat Mary Edly-Allen, a bilingual teacher who is a champion for freedom and rights for all.

I’m guessing that some folks were able to save much of her online activity, however.

* From her Democratic opponent…



* From 10th Dems…



…Adding… Miller-Walsh has been a fan of conspiracy theories, and now she’s being hit by one. This thing has spread around Facebook and Twitter…



It’s just so ridiculous. Joe Walsh started breaking with Trump long before the Sauer thing became public. But nutballs are gonna nutball, I suppose.

  33 Comments      


Truck “mystery” solved

Tuesday, Aug 21, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Governor’s campaign press release about his current campaign tour

As the governor said on Governor’s Day at the State Fair, “we’re here because we’re fighting for what’s right, and what’s just, and what’s good, and for a better future for our children and grandchildren.”

This week, the governor is touring the state with that exact message. He knows that home is worth fighting for, and he will never give up the fight for the future of Illinois.

Each day, he will make stops throughout the state speaking with voters. At least one stop per day will be accompanied by Bruce’s BBQ Big Rig, a tractor-trailer outfitted to serve BBQ to attendees at the events. [Emphasis added.]

So, now we know why he has a refrigerated truck, which, I’m told, is owned by Raymond Poe’s company. Poe, now the Agriculture Director, was a state Rep. when he ran for lt. governor in 2006 and had a truck built that could serve, if memory serves, something like 200-250 chicken dinners per hour. It was quite something to see. He wanted to set it up in Chicago, but said he couldn’t get a permit.

* The DGA claims there’s deeper meaning to the truck…

Rauner Brings Tractor-Trailer Filled of Failure to Illinois Communities

Yesterday, Governor Bruce Rauner began a new campaign swing called the “Fight for What’s Right” tour that unfortunately only highlights how wrong Rauner’s failed leadership has been for Illinois. Each community Rauner visited yesterday has been negatively impacted by his two-year budget fiasco. As a metaphor for his failed governance, Rauner’s campaign vehicle, a tractor-trailer, doesn’t list any accomplishments from the Governor’s first term.

“The only thing that Bruce Rauner’s tour will accomplish is reminding voters that they now have a tractor-trailer full of debt thanks to his failed leadership,” said DGA Illinois Communications Director Sam Salustro. “Every corner of the state is worse off after Bruce Rauner forced the state to go years without a budget and Illinois families will not forget that in November.”

Or, maybe it’s just a truck filled with tasty meats for hungry potential voters.

…Adding… Bernie

An 18-wheeler with an American flag motif on the cab and trailer wrapped in Rauner campaign blue, including the “Home is Worth Fighting For” slogan, has been provided to Rauner’s team by Poe Enterprises. That’s a farming and catering operation in which Poe is still a shareholder. Poe told me at the Governor’s Day rally at the Illinois State Fair — where the truck was parked on the road in the director’s lawn area as Rauner and others delivered their speeches nearby — that expense of the signage on the truck is shared by Rauner supporter Jason Fletcher of Athens.

  24 Comments      


Barickman: “We don’t get to earn the right to govern simply by saying Madigan is the boogeyman”

Tuesday, Aug 21, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Last month. Sen. Jason Barickman (R-Bloomington) went on WJBC Radio and urged Gov. Rauner to be more optimistic and forward-looking on the campaign trail. This week, Sen. Barickman had a somewhat similar message to WGLT Radio

“I don’t think Republicans win elections in Illinois simply by saying we’re the defense to (Illinois House Speaker Michael) Madigan’s offense. We don’t get to earn the right to govern simply by saying Madigan is the boogeyman,” said Barickman.

Barickman said attacking Madigan is part of the strategy since the speaker is one of the most unpopular politicians in the state.

But Barickman said Rauner will have to show how he can lead in the future, beyond obstructing Democrats.

“I think the public will want more. I think the path forward for a Republican has to be demonstrating the leadership necessary to advance our state regardless of whether Madigan is speaker or not. That message, I think, wins a general election,” said Barickman.

Thoughts?

…Adding… This tweet is a good fit for this post…

…Adding… Conversely…



  57 Comments      


*** LIVE COVERAGE ***

Tuesday, Aug 21, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive


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*** UPDATED x1 - “They can’t kill each other fast enough on the south and southwest sides” *** Helene Miller Walsh gets Sauer seat

Monday, Aug 20, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I discussed this with subscribers today, so we’ll just stick with what’s already been posted. Tribune

Helene Miller Walsh, the wife of conservative radio host and former GOP U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh, has been picked to fill the state House vacancy of a former Republican lawmaker who stepped down after being accused of sending an ex-girlfriend’s nude photos to other men online.

Nick Sauer, of Lake Barrington, resigned from his Illinois House seat this month after the accusations surfaced in a Politico report. Local Republican officials on Saturday chose Walsh to replace Sauer both in the General Assembly and on the November ballot.

Now, Walsh faces the potentially difficult task of building a campaign in the short few months before the election. She will run against Mary Edly-Allen, a teacher from Libertyville, in the race to represent a central and southern Lake County district in the state legislature.

* Daily Herald

“I’m really angry about what’s going on in this state,” Miller Walsh said. “People are leaving and have already left. I’m tired of what’s going on.”

She also said that, as a legislator, she wants to help the black community. Miller Walsh is a five-year advisory board member at Project H.O.O.D., an inner city nonprofit organization started by Pastor Corey Brooks in 2012 to help people become peacemakers, problem solvers, leaders and entrepreneurs in their communities.

“We all want the same thing, ultimately,” said Miller Walsh, a lifelong Chicago-area resident. “We all want to be able to live our lives with a lot less government interference. And we are responsible for ourselves. We’re no different up here in Mundelein than they are on the South Side (of Chicago).” […]

“When people came to her, she said to me, ‘You know what, I’ve got a chance to do my part to fight for Illinois,’” [Joe Walsh] said. “I think she’ll make a great candidate because she’s the epitome of a citizen legislator. She ain’t a professional politician, that is for sure.”

* I tweeted about this over the weekend…


*** UPDATE *** It’s noted above that she is an advisory board member to Pastor Corey Brooks’ Project H.O.O.D. But check out this Facebook post…

  62 Comments      


Obama cuts video for Pritzker, who just dumped another $20 million into his account

Monday, Aug 20, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Today, the Pritzker campaign released a new digital video featuring President Barack Obama on why he’s backing JB Pritzker for governor. In the video, President Obama commends JB’s leadership in creating thousands of jobs at 1871 and expanding the school breakfast program to over 200,000 kids.

“Juliana and I are incredibly honored to have the support of President Barack Obama as we fight for the values that defined his presidency,” said JB Pritzker. “President Obama has done so much to move our country forward: expanding healthcare for millions, leading our country out of the Great Recession, and standing up as a model of leadership and integrity for millions across our great state and nation. I was proud to play a role in his historic presidency when I led the White House Summit on Early Childhood Education, and I’m proud to have his endorsement in this election. I look forward to fighting to preserve and build on his legacy as Illinois’ next governor by putting Springfield back on the side of working families.”

“I am proud to endorse JB Pritzker to be the next governor of my home state of Illinois, and let me tell you why,” said President Barack Obama in the video. “It’s simple. JB gets things done. When folks said Illinois couldn’t be a leader in creating high tech jobs, JB thought we could, and he started a tech incubator that’s helped entrepreneurs create hundreds of new companies and more than 7,000 good jobs. When JB saw that too many of our school kids were going hungry, he made it a personal mission to change that, and working with Illinois non-profits, he helped expand a program we started to make sure more than 200,000 low-income Illinois kids have access to school breakfast.

“I know JB. I trust JB, and that’s who he is — someone who is always thinking about how he can make difference. Someone who identifies the right problems and brings the right people together to solve them. And that’s something we can use in Illinois. JB will be a governor who looks out for all of us — from downstate towns to northern suburbs to the neighborhoods of Chicago. He’ll work as hard as he can to strengthen opportunity for every Illinoisan, today and into the future. So, I’m asking you to join me in supporting and voting for JB Pritzker for the next governor of Illinois.”

* The video

* But a helpful little birdie in an opposing camp sent this over the transom as a reminder

* Accompanying National Journal story from 2012

Chicago billionaire J.B. Pritzker isn’t sure whether he’ll back President Obama in 2012, Bloomberg TV reported on Friday. “We’ll have to wait and see. We have to see who the nominee will be on the Republican side,” Pritzker said. “I’m a Democrat, and I tend to lean towards voting for the president.”

“As in every election, it’s going to be a choice between two people and two parties that you’re not 100 percent behind,” Pritzker said. “You just have to pick the best of a mediocre set of choices.

…Adding… I should’ve put this here

Billionaire J.B. Pritzker has pumped another $20 million into his Democratic campaign for governor, bringing his record self-funding total to $126.5 million with 2½ months to go before the Nov. 6 general election.

Campaign finance reports filed late Saturday night showed Pritzker made his latest out-of-pocket contribution Tuesday, two days before he was a featured speaker at Democrat Day at the Illinois State Fair.

At the fair’s Republican day, Gov. Bruce Rauner asked the gathered crowd for financial help, warning that he would be outspent by Pritzker by a 3-1 ratio, though he offered no specifics. […]

Still, the Republican governor has put $95.3 million of his own money into his campaign fund since March 2013, when he announced his first candidacy for governor. In December 2016, Rauner made a record one-time contribution of $50 million to his re-election fund.

  32 Comments      


*** LIVE COVERAGE ***

Monday, Aug 20, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive


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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - A couple of new mailers and a fundraising list

Friday, Aug 17, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - ICPR responds again

Friday, Aug 17, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Democratic legislator files resolution condemning “scofflaw counties”

Friday, Aug 17, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Non-binding state resolution condemns non-binding local resolutions…

State Rep. Kathleen Willis, D-Addison has filed a state resolution to counter the wave of local declarations establishing “gun sanctuary counties.”

“I have been deeply concerned by the actions of several county boards in Illinois that have passed resolutions declaring that they will prohibit the enforcement of new gun laws passed by the General Assembly,” said Willis. “County board members are required to take an oath of office that includes a vow to uphold the Constitution of the State of Illinois. Instead, some are passing resolutions intended to set aside legitimate state law.”

The resolution challenges the legitimacy of county declarations and names each county action as a “shameless political stunt which undermines the rule of law and threatens the safety of all Illinois citizens.”

The full text of HR 1197 is here:

    WHEREAS, Gun violence is an epidemic in America and in Illinois, touching all parts of the State; and

    WHEREAS, The legislative and executive branches of the State have lawfully regulated guns and gun trafficking; and

    WHEREAS, The U.S. Supreme Court has upheld the constitutionality of reasonable state gun violence prevention regulations; Conservative Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito stated in the McDonald decision that state “experimentation with reasonable firearms regulations will continue under the Second Amendment”; and

    WHEREAS, President Trump’s administration appears to be willfully ignoring the problem of gun violence in America, and at the same time, is attempting to coerce municipal police forces into diverting their resources towards harassing immigrant populations; some municipalities have lawfully opposed having their local law enforcement used for such purposes and have been dubbed “sanctuary cities”; and

    WHEREAS, Some counties in Illinois have erroneously tried to liken the cause of a sanctuary city with opposition to gun violence prevention measures by declaring themselves “gun sanctuary counties”, thereby declaring their intention to refuse to enforce any gun safety measures lawfully passed by the State with which they disagree; and

    WHEREAS, These counties are trying to use those lawful sanctuary cities as an excuse to unlawfully ignore important, democratically-implemented, state laws; and

    WHEREAS, These so-called “gun sanctuary counties” are nothing more than scofflaw counties, usurping the judiciary and role of separation of powers in our government, while openly encouraging criminal behavior; therefore, be it

    RESOLVED, BY THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES OF THE ONE HUNDREDTH GENERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE STATE OF ILLINOIS, that we condemn these scofflaw counties and declare their attempts to label themselves as “gun sanctuaries” as an unconstitutional and shameless political stunt which undermines the rule of law and threatens the safety of all Illinois citizens.

…Adding… From comments…

Translation: “I will call out your political stunt with my political stunt.”

  22 Comments      


Rauner ad gets it wrong, but Pritzker needs to end his silence

Friday, Aug 17, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* AP

“(Illinois House Speaker) Mike Madigan just raised your taxes 32 percent over Bruce Rauner’s veto. Now J.B. Pritzker wants to raise your taxes again. Pritzker and Madigan want to raise taxes on every middle class Illinoisan and increase tax rates another 26 percent,” in a [Gov. Rauner] TV ad launched last week. […]

Pritzker has not released a specific tax plan so it’s impossible to say how much he might raise taxes and who might pay more. […]

The additional 26 percent tax increase referenced in Rauner’s ad stems from a failed state bill this year that proposed raising the tax rate again by at least that much for anyone making more than $15,000 a year. When asked, Rauner’s campaign said that figure was used in the ad because it’s the only income tax plan a Democratic lawmaker has presented and Pritzker has not revealed how tax rates will change under his proposal. The Rauner campaign, however, could not provide any examples of Pritzker expressing support for the bill. During a March radio interview, Pritzker called an accusation that his tax plan would be similar to that bill “false.”

“JB does not support the bill referenced in Rauner’s ad,” his campaign said in a statement to the AP this week.

Once again with feeling: Politics abhors a vacuum. Until Pritzker defines what his graduated income tax will look like, the empty space will be filled by others.

…Adding… From Rep. Martwick…

Rich,

I guess I need to address my bill once again. That bill was filed at the height of the budget impasse. It was designed to show that by adopting the Wisconsin rate structure, we could stop the bleeding, provide basic services, properly fund education, and solve our pension problem. Rauner has had four years and has done NONE of that. I’m sorry but this debate over rates is silly, since we only get to decide rates once we have the ability to adopt them, and then you better believe the legislature is going to have a say on what rates are chosen. You could adopt progressive rates that give everyone a tax cut, but you would not solve a single problem. Or you could adopt the income tax rate structure of Wisconsin and solve almost all of your problems. So what’s the difference? With the Wisconsin rates, every single homeowner, renter, and business owner in Illinois would benefit from the largest property tax cut in the history of the state. Funny how Rauner never mentions that, even though he himself would likely save $40,000 per year on his property taxes. Perhaps that’s because his state income taxes would go up by $1.6 million. Oh, and all of those middle income folks that Rauner saying are going to get a tax increase? Well the typical family of four in the Chicago suburbs with an income of $85k, and living in a $300,000 home will see an income tax increase of approximately $1,000 per year and a property tax DECREASE of $3,500. Maybe that’s why Rauner and his trickle-down buddies don’t like it. It certainly will not benefit them.

Regards,

Rob Martwick

  19 Comments      


Just a small critique

Friday, Aug 17, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Comproller Susana Mendoza was asked by a reporter yesterday to respond to Republican comptroller candidate Darlene Senger calling her a “Mini Madigan with a Mouth” this week and asked whether she viewed Senger as a legitimate opponent

Regarding those comments, I would just say that alliteration is nice, but a little considerations for those dead veterans in Quincy, their families and the remaining veterans would’ve been nicer.

I have yet to hear her apologize yet for trying to blame Tammy Duckworth - a decorated war hero who left almost half her body on the battlefield fighting for our country - for trying to pin the blame for these deaths, when it was in fact her boss.

You’ll recall that she sent an e-mail suggesting that they should blame this, maybe we can pin this on Duckworth. That is just so unacceptable, so lack of character and this is the woman Gov. Rauner chose to run against me.

Also, most importantly I would say, beyond that just morally corrupt stuff, the fact that she herself is running for the position of comptroller at the same time that she was working against the greatest transparency reform in the history of the comptroller’s office. The Debt Transparency Act. I mean, honest to God, does that make any sense? Again, no, just on Opposite Day, right? This is just par for the course for the Rauner administration, of which she was still a part of, where she was working against the very legislation that would shine a light that’s a critical light for the comptroller’s office to have. The person running for that job believes in less transparency. That just doesn’t make any sense and I think that voters see very clearly through that.

I was looking for a solid hook when transcribing her response, but while she makes some good points, her speaking style doesn’t allow for easy quotations. Almost every sentence includes an aside, or is incomplete or includes extraneous or repeated words.

…Adding… MrJM in comments…

Say what you say, then say the bumper-sticker version. It’s politics. People not only forgive repetition, they expect it.

So say it again, but shorter.

  27 Comments      


Buttigieg delivered the best zinger of the day

Friday, Aug 17, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Heh

South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg was brought in last minute as the keynote speaker after former Vice President Joe Biden had to cancel because of illness.

“I can sense a little nervous energy in the room,” Buttigieg said. “I am conscious you did not come here to see me speak about waste water. I’m conscious most of you did not come here to see me speak at all.”

* And then he brought the heat

Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana, said that Rauner, a private equity investor, had promised to bring a business approach to government.

“This governor was handed lemons, and he took those lemons and miraculously turned them into a Dumpster fire,” Buttigieg said. “Who runs a business like that?”

…Adding… Runner-up

“Now I don’t know if you heard, but Rauner says he plans to move to Italy if he loses in November,” Pritzker added. “So, after four years of failure, of maligning and attacking the very people who make this state great, I have just one thing to say to this governor: ‘Ciao, Bruce!’”

  39 Comments      


*** LIVE COVERAGE ***

Friday, Aug 17, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive


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* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Pritzker says amount of threats received in past few days has been an 'enormous multiple' of those that were received in the days before
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* Pritzker on political violence, impeachment, Nazis, National Guard, ICE shooting, Gov. Jim Edgar
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