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Thursday, Sep 2, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gov. JB Pritzker was asked today about outbreaks at schools…

Remember, an outbreak is one in which there are five or more kids or people at that school who have tested positive.

And then he insisted the criteria was “five or more” again after being pressed.

The criteria for an outbreak was previously five or more cases but recently changed, said IDPH spokeswoman Melaney Arnold.

“Outbreaks at schools are two or more cases epidemiologically linked — people were in the same space at the same time,” Arnold said in a statement.

And if you go to the IDPH website, you’ll see that, of 26 outbreaks, 20 are classified as less than five cases.

…Adding… With thanks to a commenter, this is from the CDC…

Definitions for COVID-19 outbreaks are relative to the local context. A working definition of “outbreak” is recommended for planning investigations. A recommended definition is a situation that is consistent with either of two sets of criteria:

• During (and because of) a case investigation and contact tracing, two or more contacts are identified as having active COVID-19, regardless of their assigned priority.

OR

• Two or more patients with COVID-19 are discovered to be linked, and the linkage is established outside of a case investigation and contact tracing (e.g., two patients who received a diagnosis of COVID-19 are found to work in the same office, and only one or neither of the them was listed as a contact to the other).

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Latino Policy Forum wants Pritzker to veto new remap bill

Thursday, Sep 2, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* After getting whacked by the courts during the 1981 remap process, the Democrats have always tried to appease Latino groups in the redistricting process to avoid another lawsuit. As we discussed yesterday, the new do-over maps passed this week have so far not dissuaded the Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund from moving ahead with its legal challenge. And now comes the Latino Policy Forum…

The Latino Policy Forum urges Governor Pritzker to veto the Illinois legislative maps passed by legislators this week, which do not equitably reflect the state’s Latino community.

Despite recent 2020 census data indicating that Illinois added 309,832 Latinos (the largest population increase among racial/ethnic groups statewide), no Latino-majority districts were added in the maps passed by the general assembly. In fact, preliminary analysis and reports show that some Latino-majority districts are diluted even more, further hindering the community’s ability to elect the representatives of their choice.

Furthermore, as with the maps from the spring, the Illinois legislature did not provide advocates with a reasonable timeline that would enable community input.

The Forum supports and stands alongside efforts led by the United Congress of Community and Religious Organizations (UCCRO), the IL Muslim Civic Coalition, the Chicago Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights, and other allies that denounce the passed maps.

…Adding… Leader Durkin…

Illinois House Republican Leader Jim Durkin (R-Western Springs) released the following statement on Governor Pritzker’s comments today about the new legislative maps:

“The Governor needs to live up to his campaign pledges for a fair map and veto another attempt by the legislative Democrats to silence communities across Illinois. The Governor does not just work for the Democratic insiders who got him elected. He needs to listen to the voices of groups like Latino Policy Forum and the IL Muslim Civic Coalition so that all Illinoisans feel that equity and inclusion are part of the mapmaking process.”

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Protected: *** UPDATED x1 *** SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Climate/energy

Thursday, Sep 2, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

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*** UPDATED x1 *** WSJ analysis: Almost no job growth difference between states that cut unemployment benefits early and those that did not

Thursday, Sep 2, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Wall Street Journal…

States that ended enhanced federal unemployment benefits early have so far seen about the same job growth as states that continued offering the pandemic-related extra aid, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis and economists.

Several rounds of federal pandemic aid boosted the amount of unemployment payments, most recently by $300 a week, and extended them for as long as 18 months. The extra benefits are set to expire nationwide next week. But 25 states ended the financial enhancement over the summer, and most of them also moved to end other pandemic-specific unemployment programs such as benefits for gig and self-employed workers.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 1.33% in July from April in the 25 states that ended the benefits and 1.37% in the other 25 states and the District of Columbia, the Journal analysis of Labor Department data showed. The payroll figures are taken from a government survey of employers. The analysis compared July totals with April, before governors in May started announcing plans to end or reduce the benefits during the summer.

Economists who have conducted their own analyses of the government data say the rates of job growth in states that ended and states that maintained the benefits are, from a statistical perspective, about the same.

“If the question is, ‘Is UI the key thing that’s holding back the labor market recovery?’ The answer is no, definitely not, based on the available data,” said Peter Ganong, a University of Chicago economist, referring to unemployment insurance.

* Bar graph…

This is the second study we’ve covered on this topic. The other one is here.

Econ 101 has wrecked more peoples’ minds than anything else in higher education and has led to some pretty cruel policies.

*** UPDATE *** CBS 2…

The U.S. Department of Labor estimates 15,404 new unemployment claims were filed during the week of August 23 in Illinois, according to the DOL’s weekly claims report released Thursday. […]

Illinois’ estimated claims are among 340,000 total claims filed across the country last week. […]

There were 21,499 new unemployment claims filed during the week of August 2 in Illinois.

There were 20,019 new unemployment claims were filed during the week of July 26 in Illinois.

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Downstate residents, particularly in southern Illinois, have got to start taking this seriously

Thursday, Sep 2, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Daily Herald…

People living in the suburbs make up 44% of the state’s population, but in August they accounted for just 26% of COVID-19 deaths in Illinois.

That’s the suburbs’ smallest portion of COVID-19 deaths for any month since the pandemic began, according to a Daily Herald analysis of Illinois Department of Public Health records. […]

People living in 96 counties outside the Chicago metropolitan area make up 34.5% of the population and have experienced 36% of deaths.

But that share is increasing.

More than half the state’s COVID-19 deaths in both July and August were from the 96 downstate counties, where less than 40% of the population is vaccinated against COVID-19. That compares to 53% that are vaccinated in the state as a whole.

* And southern Illinois is getting hit hard by people who won’t get themselves and their families vaccinated…

A Tribune analysis of state data shows that southern Illinois’ rate of hospitalizations is nearly as high as it was at its peak last fall: a rate of nearly 41 per 100,000 residents, compared with a rate of 43 just after Thanksgiving.

Its hospitalization rate is by far the highest in Illinois, and more than triple the rate in the city of Chicago.

About 37% of southern Illinois residents are fully vaccinated, compared with nearly 54% in Chicago. […]

Across the region’s 22 hospitals, many are delaying elective surgeries and keeping patients in beds in their emergency departments while they wait for other beds to become available, said Arien Herrmann, regional hospital coordinating center manager for region five, which encompasses the southernmost part of Illinois.

* The Southern…

Memorial Hospital of Carbondale has 22 COVID-19 patients in critical care and all of them are on ventilators. The youngest is 28 years old, SIH said.

Three of the patients have been fully vaccinated and are over age 65. Harre said most of those 22 patients in critical care are in their 20s, 30s or 40s.

“The Delta Variant is really hitting the younger population,” [SIH Chief Nursing Officer Jennifer Harre] said. “Once they go on a ventilator, it is really hard to get off the vent.”

With the original COVID-19 virus, most of the patients in ICU at the hospitals were from congregate living situations or over age 65.

* Meanwhile, in Chicago…

Chicago Public Health Commissioner Dr. Allison Arwady said the mask mandate that has been in effect for a little over a week is already resulting in positive COVID data for the city.

“We’re doing quite well in Chicago. We’re averaging 473 cases per day,” essentially the same as the daily rate a week ago. Chicago’s daily case rate per 100,000 people stands at 17.5—half the national rate of 39 people per 100,000 per day.

“What I’m pleased about is we’re seeing some real flattening here, I think that is largely a result, actually, of putting the masks back on indoors,” Arwady said. […]

The positivity rate is similarly flat at 4.4%. “We’ve actually not yet gone over 5%, that’s a very good sign, it shows us we’re testing well,” Arwady continued. The average daily hospitalization rate is 22—down 29% from the prior week.

Get your shots and wear your mask.

…Adding… Dr. Tracey Smith at the Illinois Public Health Association…

Hi Rich,

We saw your post this morning about the ongoing situation in southern Illinois. Below is a statement that should be attributed to Dr. Tracey Smith, director of Community Health and Programs at the Illinois Public Health Association:

As you alluded to this morning, there are people throughout Illinois grappling with some very dire situations. Community Health Workers have been on-the-ground for months doing all they can to slow the spread of COVID-19. This includes helping people in isolation and quarantine who might otherwise be disconnected from critical services.

The state’s Pandemic Health Navigator Program, which is managed by the Illinois Public Health Association and funded by IDPH, is still available to anyone who needs help finding basic human needs, such as:

• Getting meals and medications
• Mobility and mental health support
• Safer living conditions
• Work and income resources

Your readers could help their constituents by sending them to helpguidethrive.org. There they will find a directory of Community Based Organizations and Federally Qualified Health Centers throughout Illinois that provide these services and more.

* Related…

* A new study found half of hospitalized Covid patients had lingering symptoms one year later: “The need to understand and respond to long Covid is increasingly pressing,” said an editorial The Lancet published about the study. “Symptoms such as persistent fatigue, breathlessness, brain fog, and depression could debilitate many millions of people globally.” It added: “Long Covid is a modern medical challenge of the first order.”

* SIH officials say staff is stretched thin taking care of COVID patients

* Hospital data from southwest IL continues to show COVID impacts the unvaccinated hardest

* Petersburg PORTA cancels second straight game because of COVID-19 protocols

* IHSA has no policy for quarantine, exposure, or return to play for COVID-19: Troha said there have been 12 canceled games in week one and even one team, Urbana high school, that canceled their season altogether.