There’s pretty much no doubt that Illinois will be the focal point of national efforts by Democrats to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The new map of Illinois congressional districts puts five traditionally Republican-held congressional districts into play for the first time in a decade.
But if Democrats are going to make those gains, they will need help from the Illinois Democratic Party –and that is where things get sticky. In the 1980s, Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, the state party’s chairman, began focusing that apparatus on raising cash to elect members of the Illinois House; not members of Congress. Today, that’s the party’s sole mission.
Political insiders have begun raising questions about the state party now that the remap is a done deal. Why? Because a better focused party may have made the difference in two recent unsuccessful, but close, races for Congress: Tammy Duckworth in the 6th Congressional District in 2006 and Lauren Beth Gash in the 10th Congressional District in 2000.
The answer to their original question is “Probably not.” Madigan does what he does and leaves the rest up to others.
* Meanwhile, Real Clear Politics’ Senior Elections Analyst doesn’t quite get an important aspect of how the new congressional districts were drawn. Democratic mapmakers factored in John Kerry’s 2004 presidential race as well as the 2006 gubernatorial contest when drawing up their maps. Looking at just the two landslide years of 2008 (Democratic) and 2010 (Republican) doesn’t give us enough data to make a solid judgement on their mapmaking abilities. And from what the Democrats are saying, some suburban districts are gradually shifting more Democratic over the years, mainly because of Latino migration. That is evidenced, they say, by comparing Bush ‘04 with Brady ‘10. Also, nowhere mentioned in the analysis is the statewide third party performance last year, which contributed to some of the lower Democratic numbers….
8th District (POTUS: 62 percent Dem) (Gov: 48 percent Dem) (Sen: 46 percent Dem) (Treas: 42 percent Dem). Joe Walsh, a political unknown who narrowly defeated Democrat Melissa Bean in 2010, no longer resides in this district, and about two-thirds of his old district has been moved to the 6th. Obama’s vote share increased from 56 percent to 62 percent, a substantial improvement. Overall, this is a pretty Democratic district, but remember that Republicans were able to hold the neighboring 10th in 2010, which gave Obama 61 percent of the vote. In addition, the Democratic ticket had some problems here in 2010. In a good enough Republican year, or if the suburbs swing back toward Republicans, a Republican would be competitive.
10th District (POTUS: 64 percent Dem) (Gov: 50.4 percent Dem) (Sen: 44 percent Dem) (Treas: 44 percent Dem). Bob Dold is probably going to see his congressional career cut short. The partisan makeup of this Northern Chicago district didn’t change that much, but the Democrats in his district now tend to be more reliable Democratic voters. Still, Alex Giannoulias ran poorly for the Senate here (in part because Mark Kirk represented much of this area), while Pat Quinn barely won. It would take a good GOP year and probably a general movement of the suburbs back toward Republicans, but a Republican candidate could win here.
11th District (POTUS: 62 percent Dem) (Gov: 49 percent Dem) (Sen: 48 percent Dem) (Treas: 45 percent Dem). Current 11th District Congressman Adam Kinzinger now resides in Jesse Jackson Jr.’s district. This Southwestern Chicago district is actually more of a new district, drawing about half of its voters from the old 13th District (the district that was technically eliminated), and a quarter each from old 11th and 14th. Once again, this will tend to elect a Democrat in most years, but the 2010 Democratic ticket’s performance was underwhelming. In a good GOP year, the Republicans should be competitive and, once again, if the suburbs shift a bit toward the Republicans in the next decade, the Democrats would find this a 50-50 district.
12th District (POTUS: 56 percent Dem) (Gov: 47 percent Dem) (Sen: 48 percent Dem) (Treas: 48 percent Dem). Jerry Costello will probably keep this Southwest Illinois district for as long as he wants it (although an obscure opponent held him below 60 percent in 2010). But at age 61, it is far from certain that his career will span this entire decade. Should the seat open up, it would be a competitive district.
13th District (POTUS: 56 percent Dem) (Gov: 40 percent Dem) (Sen: 41 percent Dem) (Treas: 40 percent Dem). Since the old 13th was technically eliminated, this is really John Shimkus’ renumbered 19th. But Shimkus will see a lot of new voters; only about 30 percent of his old constituents live in this district. Still, aside from Barack Obama, the Democratic ticket fared poorly here in 2010, and in all but the best Democratic years, the seat should still elect a Republican.
17th District (POTUS: 61 percent Dem) (Gov: 42 percent Dem) (Sen: 42 percent Dem) (Treas: 45 percent Dem). This is probably the biggest head-scratcher of the bunch, and it may be that some incomplete data are making the 2010 Democratic performance look weaker than it really was. Freshman GOP Rep Bobby Schilling’s district has been made much more compact. It’s also been made more Democratic; Obama’s vote share here was improved by about four points. But Obama ran unusually well in the northwest portion of the state, which is traditionally a GOP stronghold. As you see, the rest of the Democratic ticket apparently had a terrible showing here in 2010. To be sure, a Democrat can win this district, and Schilling, who came to Congress with little experience, could have a rough time in 2012 with Obama atop the ticket. But a GOP candidate could win here as well; the district is probably more of a tossup in a “normal” year.
* There’s no question that the Democrats did horribly Downstate last year. There’s also little doubt that Obama won’t do as well in the Metro East as he did in 2008. So, the Republicans may be simply attempting to gin up a little negative chatter with a low-cost Web video…
Costelllo is hit on Medicare–in a web ad that basically says he did not support a GOP Medicare overhaul plan. It’s a bit of table turning; Democrats are going after Republicans–(re the Democratic recent win in a New York House race) over the Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.) Medicare proposal.
A GOP source told me they National Republican Congressional Committee did the spot because they think Costello left himself weaker in the new district he drew for himself to run from in 2012. Illinois Republicans asked Gov. Pat Quinn not to sign the map and signaled they will fight the Democratic plan in federal court.
* ’Burbs flex muscle in new congressional map: The new 8th Congressional District, drawn without any incumbent, creates an open seat that’s already attracted interest from two Democrats, both of Hoffman Estates — former state comptroller candidate Raja Krishnamoorthi and Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth, who lost to Roskam in 2006. The circular shaped district, which Roskam’s new Pac-Man shaped district is seemingly eating, contains some of the most independent voting portions of Northwest Cook and DuPage County — Addison, Hanover and Elk Grove townships, and parts of Wheeling Township.
* Representing the 17th District - Today a long time Quad Cities politician Mike Boland came to Rockford to express his interest in representing the 17th district.
* HERITAGE: ACTION — Heritage Action says it ’s spending $300,000 in 11 congressional districts thanking them for “an unflinching commitment to conservative principles on issues both large and small; including an adult-like and essential reform of Medicare.” They’re calling the lawmakers the Magnificent 11: Republican Reps. Justin Amash (Mich.), Bill Huizenga (Mich.), Dan Benishek (Mich.), Tim Walberg (Mich.), Steve Chabot (Ohio), Steve King (Iowa), Mick Mulvaney (S.C.), Steve Pearce (N.M.), Steve Southerland (Fla.), Joe Walsh (Ill.) and Alan West (Fla.). Just King was part of the 111th Congress. Pearce, Walberg and Chabot served in previous congresses.
