* As we already know, Gov. Pat Quinn’s campaign distributed copies of its last two positive TV spots earlier today. From the AP…
Gov. Pat Quinn is closing out his Democratic primary campaign by reminding voters that he’s a good guy.
But Quinn is also running a new negative TV ad - another one on Burr Oak Cemetery. This was recorded off a TV, so the quality isn’t perfect, but have a look anyway…
Gov. Pat Quinn today accused his primary opponent, Comptroller Dan Hynes, of misusing President Barack Obama’s words in a campaign mailing attacking the governor’s tax plan.
The mailing quotes Obama’s speech at the 2008 Democratic National Convention, saying that raising taxes on the middle class during a recession is a bad idea. Hynes has campaigned accusing Quinn of pushing a plan to raise income taxes across the board, including the middle class, while the comptroller wants targeted increases for the affluent only.
The mailing then states that Obama opposes Quinn’s kind of plan.
“Pat Quinn’s 50% tax hike on the middle-class is NOT what Barack Obama thinks we need,” the mailing says.
Today, the Hynes campaign hit yet another historic low by implying the endorsement of a man Dan Hynes called a “do-nothing,” “pork pie” politician — President Barack Obama.
This misuse of the words and image of an iconic Illinois leader by the Hynes campaign follows last week’s misappropriation of the late, great Mayor Harold Washington’s words and image — even though Comptroller Hynes worked alongside his father to defeat and destroy Mayor Washington and everything he stood for.
Just six years ago, Comptroller Hynes accused Barack Obama of voting “in lockstep with George Ryan because he wanted his share of the pork pie.” Hynes attacked Barack Obama for fiscal irresponsibility by voting for tax relief for working families, and health care for children who needed it. Hynes claimed that he fought alone against state laws to provide healthcare for children and reduce taxes on working families.
In response — in a Chicago Sun-Times article headlined, `Hynes pounces on Obama at last debate’ — President Obama shrugged off Hynes’ carping. “I think it’s a little disingenuous of him to say he was this warrior,” Obama said. “But we’re six days away from an election. I think it’s to be expected that people are going to start throwing stuff out.”
* Kirk Dillard’s campaign rolled out Jim Edgar yesterday to ask for civility. From a press release…
Former Governor Jim Edgar [yesterday] said he was disappointed in the negative tone of the governor’s race, and urged candidates to talk about the issues. “There’s a lot at stake in this year’s election,” Edgar said at a joint news conference with Republican hopeful Kirk Dillard. “I think the voters deserve better.”
Edgar reaffirmed his support for Dillard, who served as Edgar’s first Chief of Staff. The former Governor said instead of discussing the issues, opponents have spent money on television to distort Dillard’s record.
“Let me be clear,” said Edgar. “Kirk Dillard opposes higher taxes. He’s never voted for a general tax increase.” Edgar said Dillard has been running a positive campaign with a real vision to create jobs, cut spending, eliminate red tape and end politics as usual.
But today Dillard started running a new TV ad. Technically, I suppose, it’s “comparative.” Others might just call it negative. Rate it…
* I told you earlier today about a new Pat Quinn TV ad. That was just one of the two he has running. Here’s the other one…
Quinn is not letting up on trying to create a backlash against Hynes’ Harold Washington ad. Patterson has details…
Quinn’s campaign released a list of county Democratic chairman who signed on to a letter taking on Hynes for his ads. The letter reads in part, “you have crossed an important line by choosing to be so destructively, relentlessly negative in your campaign.”
The letter is signed by the Democratic chairman of the DuPage and Kane organizations along with several other counties.
But noticeably absent is the chairman of the powerful Cook County Democrats, lobbyist and property tax maven Joseph Berrios. That organization endorsed Quinn, but didn’t sign on to this letter ripping Hynes on the ads, at the same time recent polls are showing an extremely close race.
The list of counties is pretty short - and those counties for the most part are also short on [Democratic voter] population. See it for yourself.
* Democratic treasurer candidate Justin Oberman has a new TV ad that slams his opponent Robin Kelly. Watch…
* This blog’s absolute favorite video producer, Simon Edelman, has been a bit quiet lately over at the Quinn campaign. His new Internet video is typically well done. Watch it…
Keep an eye on that young man. No matter what happens next Tuesday, he’s going places.
* Jim Ryan’s campaign also has a new Internet vid. This one attacks Andy McKenna. Check it out…
* Gov. Pat Quinn has a new TV ad that speaks directly to voters. I think it’s pretty good, but is it enough? You tell me…
* Rasmussen Reports has a new poll on the Democratic primary. But its sample size is tiny - just 300 likely Democratic voters - so let’s be very careful with it, OK? Thanks.
Given the survey margin of error and the large number of undecided voters, the race is clearly a toss-up heading into Tuesday’s primary vote.
One reason the race is close is Democratic Primary voters give Quinn mixed reviews on his job performance. Overall, 53% say they at least somewhat approve of the job he’s doing. That’s pretty tepid support from the party’s base voters. Only 13% Strongly Approve, while 21% Strongly Disapprove.
On a personal basis, as distinct from job approval, Hynes is viewed favorably by 54% while Quinn earns positive reviews from 51%.
Just 12% have a Very Favorable opinion of Quinn while 18% hold a Very Unfavorable view.
For Hynes, those numbers are 16% Very Favorable and 11% Very Unfavorable.
Toplines are here, crosstabs (subscribers only) are here.
We looked at four potential November match ups and found Dan Hynes leading Jim Ryan 40-35 and Andy McKenna 38-36 with Pat Quinn trailing Ryan 42-35 and McKenna 42-36.
Here are our takeaways from those numbers:
-Hynes is a more electable candidate for Democrats than Quinn. Quinn’s approval rating has fallen to 25/55…those sorts of numbers make him virtually unelectable in the general election. His 9% approval with Republicans is par for the course in a time of polarized politics but the 16/55 spread with independents is bad and the fact that his standing with Democrats is under 40% is even worse. Matched against the Republicans Hynes gets around 70% of the Democratic vote and Quinn gets just 60%, which is why Hynes is ahead and Quinn is behind.
-This is probably going to be a close contest no matter who gets nominated. Three out of the four scenarios we looked at came out within the margin of error and there are a decent number of undecideds. Illinois will be one of the most watched states in the country this fall with close races for both the Senate and Governor.
-The same trends that fueled Republican victories in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Virginia are showing up in Illinois. Independents are leaning strongly toward the GOP, leading by anywhere from 5 to 21 points in these head to heads. And Republicans are also more unified, getting 71-80% of their party’s vote compared to 60-69% for the Democrats. That’s the formula that makes Republican victory possible in Democratic leaning states.
*We tested Ryan and McKenna because earlier polling in the race suggested they were the GOP front runners. Given the lack of variability in their performance relative to Hynes and Quinn it seems likely Kirk Dillard or Bill Brady would have polled similarly.
* Axelrod Glad He’s Not Involved in Illinois Politics: “I miss Chicago every day. I’m homesick every day,” Axelrod said at a Chicago home for those with developmental needs where he was the keynote speaker. “But the one virtue of being away is that I don’t have to be in the middle of a contest between very good friends.”
