* Cheryle Jackson’s US Senate campaign is distributing a new polling memo. Keep in mind that the stuff about how numbers move after the reads the candidate’s message in memos like these means little unless the candidate actually has the money to burn his/her message into voters’ brains. There’s not much time left for that, considering the upcoming holidays.
Anyway, all highlighting is in the original…
A recent statewide survey of likely Democratic Primary voters reveals a wide-open race for U.S. Senate in Illinois, with Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson strongly positioned to win. In an initial trial heat, nearly half of voters are undecided, with Cheryle Jackson running second to Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. Once this race becomes engaged, however, and the candidates introduce themselves to the voters, Cheryle Jackson makes dramatic gains in her support—more than doubling her initial support—and rapidly assumes the lead over the field. Her status as a frontrunner is all the more noteworthy since her primary opponent, Alexi Giannoulias, is the sitting State Treasurer, enjoys broader name identification, and has had a six-month head start on campaigning.
Key Findings
If the election were held today, “undecided” would win the race, claiming 45% of the vote, with the candidates’ current positions relating largely to name ID. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias starts out with 31% of the vote (just 16% of which is strong support), followed by Cheryle Jackson at 13% (7% strong). David Hoffman and Jacob Meister each draw support in the single digits (8% and 2%, respectively). The softness of Giannoulias’ support, however, along with Jackson’s potential to surge ahead, are quickly made clear in this data.
After voters hear each of the candidates’ positive messages, Cheryle Jackson is the only candidate to make rapid gains and quickly vaults into the lead in the race for U.S. Senate. (The text of each of the profiles is provided in the back of this document). Jackson more than doubles her initial support, attracting 30% of the vote, while Giannoulias’ support actually drops by 2 points to 29%. Former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman inches up to 11%, and lawyer Jacob Meister to just 5%. Nearly one-quarter of the electorate (24%) remains undecided.
In addition to her demonstrable personal appeal, Cheryle Jackson has other unique advantages—as the only woman and the only African American in this crowded field. The composition of this Democratic primary electorate skews female (58%), and the undecided vote even more so (60%). Among voters who express a preference for the gender of their next Senator, a woman is preferred to a man by a substantial margin of more than 3:1. In addition, if one were to simulate undecided African American voters coalescing behind Jackson, the initial trial heat moves immediately from 31%-13% to 31%-22%, placing Jackson within single digits of Giannoulias. This, of course, assumes traditional turnout of African American voters in this primary at 24%; every point increase in turnout translates into added vote for Jackson.
Underscoring the wide-open nature of this contest, solid majorities of voters are unfamiliar with all the candidates in this race, including 8 in 10 undecided voters. This is particularly striking for Giannoulias, the only statewide officeholder, and the sitting Treasurer since 2006. Moreover, while Giannoulias converts much of his existing name identification into votes, he appears already to have maximized his potential in that regard. Thirty-seven percent of voters have a favorable impression of Giannoulias, and 10% have an unfavorable impression. Even for this sitting officeholder, a majority of primary voters has either no opinion of him (29%), or has never heard of him (24%). Voters views on Giannoulias’ job performance as State Treasurer is much more mixed. Nearly as many rate his performance negatively (30% “just fair”/”poor”) as positively (36% “excellent”/”good”), and undecided voters are solidly negative on his performance as Treasurer (16% “excellent”/”good” to 33% “just fair”/”poor”). Again, once voters learn more about Giannoulias, his support actually drops.
Cheryle Jackson, on the other hand, demonstrates a remarkable ability to more than double her vote share as voters become more familiar with her. She starts out with 23% of voters having a favorable impression of her, and 9% unfavorable. Many voters still have either no opinion (32%), or has never heard of her (35%). Once voters are introduced to her, her support jumps from 13% to 30%, and she assumes the lead.
David Hoffman and Jacob Meister both appear to be non-factors in this race. Neither candidate is well known, neither starts out with significant support, and neither makes noticeable gains in support after being introduced to the voters. Hoffman is little known (13% favorable, 5% unfavorable, 35% no opinion, 47% never heard). Jacob Meister is even more unfamiliar to voters (4% favorable, 2% unfavorable, 32% no opinion, 62% never heard).
In short, polling shows that Cheryle Jackson is a frontrunner in the race for Illinois’ open U.S. Senate seat. With just three short months until the primary, Jackson is the only candidate poised to make significant gains once the campaigns start communicating with voters. Giannoulias, already having converted much of his existing personal affect into vote, is unable to capitalize further on his name ID advantage. While Cheryle Jackson more than doubles her support after voters are introduced to her in a competitive environment, additional exposure for Giannoulias actually leaves him with fewer votes than he begins with. The data reveal that Cheryle Jackson alone has the momentum to win the race to fill President Obama’s Senate seat.
* Meanwhile, Dem US Senate underdog Jacob Meister has a new TV ad…
The campaign of Chicago attorney and Democratic Senate candidate Jacob Meister said it began airing one-minute TV ads in central Illinois today in which he contends that helping the economy and creating jobs is more important than battling corruption.
“There’s other people who would like to say that it’s all about corruption,” Meister says in the ad, which revisits his Springfield appearance to file candidacy petitions for the Feb. 2 Democratic primary nomination. “Obviously, corruption is an important message, but that’s not the measuring stick we should be using. This is about the economy.” […]
Running a one-minute campaign commercial is unusual, but Meister’s ad is airing in the Champaign, Springfield and Peoria TV markets, where advertising rates are less expensive than in the Chicago market.
