Brian Gaines, a political science professor at the University of Illinois, made a prediction just after the 2018 elections: If the local congressman, Rep. Rodney Davis, could survive that year’s Democratic wave, then the Republican would be safe through 2020.
Now Gaines has lost confidence in his prognosis.
“I still think that’s true, but I’m a little more inclined to think he could lose this election,” said Gaines, a professor at the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the university, who recently ventured out of Urbana-Champaign and into the district’s more rural parts.
“I was surprised how few Trump signs I saw,” he said.
*facepalm*
* Meanwhile…
Lobbyist-turned-politician Betsy Dirksen Londrigan used to raise money for Mike Madigan and his cronies.
Now, they’re bankrolling her campaign to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Today the NRCC launched a new ad in IL-13 reminding folks Betsy and Springfield corruption go hand in hand.
* My own prediction: If Congressman Davis holds on this year, it’ll be at least partially because of the late “Madigan” attacks on Dirksen Londrigan that have become ubiquitous in the district’s media markets. This race will show us which is more powerful: Significant Trump headwinds (as defined by actual data and bolstered by the Democrats’ healthcare argument) or the Illinois House Speaker, who polls worse than Trump but isn’t running the national government.
Forget about 2018, forget about non-existent yard signs that don’t vote anyway. Focus on what’s happening in the here and now.
* Click here for the A-1 detailing the contribution from the state’s wealthiest political contributor.
Citizens for Judicial Fairness, the main committee attempting to prevent Illinois Supreme Court Justice Tom Kilbride from being retained, has now reported raising a total of $2.558 million.
Justice Kilbride’s retention committee has reported raising $2.3 million.
…Adding… Press release…
Rich -
Below is a statement from Jim Nowlan on the recent contribution to Citizens for Judicial Fairness:
“Our grassroots movement to end the Madigan-Kilbride alliance on the Illinois Supreme Court is now close to leveling the playing field with the trial lawyers and liberal special interests funding Kilbride’s campaign and can effectively inform voters about Tom Kilbride’s pro-Madigan, anti-taxpayer record as a Supreme Court Justice.” - Jim Nowlan, Chairman, Citizens for Judicial Fairness
*** UPDATE *** Press release…
Over the weekend, Citizens for Judicial Fairness, a coalition of advocates calling for the non-retention of Illinois Supreme Court Justice Tom Kilbride, launched their first ad airing across the 3rd Supreme Court District of Illinois. Additionally, the coalition launched a new website highlighting Kilbride’s ties to Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan: MadiganKilbride.com
Former U.S. Transportation Secretary and Congressman Ray LaHood, Professor and Newspaper Publisher Jim Nowlan, and former Knox County judge Harry Bulkeley, all leaders in the coalition, released the following statements on the effort to prevent Kilbride’s retention.
Secretary LaHood said, “After more than 20 years, Justice Tom Kilbride has displayed plainly that he is ‘Madigan’s Favorite Judge.’ He was the deciding vote and wrote the majority opinion killing Fair Maps, which would have taken the power away from Mike Madigan and career politicians to draw legislative districts. That decision and others came after Kilbride’s campaign received millions of dollars directly from Madigan’s Machine to remain on the Court. Kilbride has voted for Madigan time and again. It’s time to vote him out.”
Jim Nowlan added, “Make no mistake about it, Mike Madigan is on the ballot in November. By voting No on Tom Kilbride’s retention, you can vote against Madigan and against the culture of corruption that has plagued our state for decades. After taking nearly $4 million from Madigan and his allies in his last two campaigns, Kilbride knows who he owes his seat to and has judged accordingly.”
Former Knox county judge Harry Bulkeley closed, “The Chicago Machine and Mike Madigan have played puppeteer in this state for decades, but now voters have the opportunity to cut some of those strings. In my 24 years on the bench, like all judges in Illinois I was governed by the Code of Judicial Conduct. That code require judges to avoid even the appearance of impropriety. Madigan’s money gives the unmistakable appearance of impropriety. Most people in the state cannot vote against Madigan but in November, voting no on Kilbride is saying no to Mike Madigan.”
* After I wrote about Eddie Van Halen the other day, I reconnected with a couple of old friends from my days living in Utah, including Art Tryon, the guy I was with when I first heard “You Really Got Me.” Daryn Tanner, my best friend from those days, helped put us together. Art posted this song on his Facebook page before we talked, so I’ll close out the week with it. And since Monday’s a state holiday, I’ll talk with you Tuesday…
As first reported by National Journal, a new poll conducted on behalf of the DCCC IE in Illinois’ 13th Congressional District finds Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan leading incumbent Congressman Rodney Davis by five points, 48% - 43%. Former VP Joe Biden also leads President Trump in the district, 53% - 40%.
In 2018, IL-13 was one of the closest elections in the country with Dirksen Londrigan coming within one point – a mere 2,058 votes – of unseating Davis, and the race is considered one of the top pickup opportunities for Democrats across the country.
“This latest poll makes clear that working people in Central Illinois are ready to reject Congressman Rodney Davis’ career in Washington of looking out for himself and his special interest friends,” said DCCC Spokesperson Courtney Rice. “From his long record of voting to gut affordable health care and protections for people with pre-existing conditions to his corporate tax giveaway that hamstrung families, Davis has made it clear that he’ll always prioritize himself and his donors over his constituents.”
The DCCC has been on air in IL-13 since Labor Day. “Secret,” which is currently on air, slams Davis who twice voted against transparency for the federal loan program meant to help small businesses during the pandemic – after his own family took more than $1 million in loans. “Working For” and “Perfect Match” were previously on air and highlighted how Davis takes millions in contributions from special interests and votes their way in Washington.
The poll was conducted on behalf of the DCCC IE by Tulchin Research among 400 likely voters between October 1-6, 2020. The margin of error is +/-4.9.
President Trump won that district by 5.5 points four years ago.
* Meanwhile…
Betsy Dirksen Londrigan continues to show strength in her campaign, announcing today that she raised nearly $1.55 million in the latest FEC fundraising quarter, which ended September 30. Dirksen Londrigan outraised Congressman Rodney Davis the last three quarters, and will report more than $1.3 million cash on hand to finish out the final month of the campaign.
Dirksen Londrigan’s campaign is powered by the people, with over 85% of her donations coming in amounts of $100 or less. Betsy also refuses to accept corporate PAC money, now or when in Congress, and she will not be beholden to anyone except the voters who elect her to Congress.
That couldn’t stand in clearer contrast to Davis who has accepted more than $3 million from corporate PACs and more than $200,000 from Big Pharma corporate PACs, all while voting in their best interests rather than the interests of Central Illinois families.
* And…
Today, Rodney Davis’ campaign for Congress released a new ad titled “Shannon,” which highlights Rodney’s work to protect healthcare coverage for individual’s with pre-existing conditions and make healthcare more affordable.
The ad features Rodney’s wife Shannon, who is a registered nurse and 21-year survivor of colon cancer. She was able to receive treatment for her cancer diagnosis and live thanks to her healthcare coverage. Rodney believes that all Americans should have access to those same healthcare protections because it will save lives. This issue is personal to him.
The Coalition to Stop the Proposed Tax Hike Amendment launched a new ad today reminding voters nothing in the Tax Hike Amendment protects retirement income from being taxed.
In the ad, 85-year-old Phyllis Barklow speaks for retirees in Illinois when she says to vote No to the Springfield Politicians who are threatening to tax retirement income.
This threat was amplified in June by Illinois State Treasurer Michael Frerichs when he said, “One thing a progressive tax would do is make clear you can have graduated rates when you are taxing retirement income.”
As further evidence the Springfield Politicians cannot be trusted on the issue of taxing retirement income, Frerichs this week tried reversing his position, but no amount of flip-flopping can steer voters away from knowing that the Tax Hike Amendment gives Springfield Politicians a blank check to change tax rates and set as many tax brackets as they want—whenever they want, including taxing retirement income.
“Nothing in the Constitutional Amendment protects retirement income from being taxed,” said Lissa Druss, Coalition Spokesperson. “Springfield Politicians want us to trust them with our taxes when they can’t even keep their word on taxing retirement income. Retirees across the state know the Tax Hike Amendment is a direct threat to them. Retirees like Phyllis, who are living on a fixed income, will have to survive with even less if more power is granted to Springfield Politicians.”
It is important to note that of the states that have a graduated income tax, they also have a retirement tax.
They promise they won’t tax retirement income if their constitutional amendment passes, but their measure lets them increase income taxes on every group of taxpayers including retirees.
Even our state treasurer said so publicly.
The truth is nothing in the constitutional amendment protects retirement income from being taxed.
So, we could trust the politicians to be fair to taxpayers or vote no.
…Adding… Quentin Fulks at Vote Yes for Fairness…
Opponents of the Fair Tax are tripling down on an attack that’s been repeatedly called out as flat out false. Their motivation is clear — they have no excuse for why a billionaire is paying the same tax rate as a nurse or why they’re fighting against a tax cut for 97% of Illinoisans, so they’re trying to force the conversation away from what the Fair Tax is really about. Voters won’t be fooled by their deceptive tactics and lies.
He’s not wrong about almost anything until his last sentence. Not convinced of that.
