The easy explanation is that, despite the $50 million he was staked by Citadel chief Ken Griffin, Griffin may well be outspent by Election Day by a combination of incumbent J.B. Pritzker, Bailey benefactor and packaging mogul Dick Uihlein, and above all the Democratic Governors’ Association. All have run ads intended to help Bailey and hurt Irvin.
The Irvin folks have been left pretty much whining about it, griping—including via some film of me interviewing Bailey—that those bad ol’ Democrats are messing around in “our” Republican primary. They say their foes collectively could have spent $75 million by Election Day.
But there’s a bigger problem—beyond, that is, using my picture in an ad, which is never a good idea. The problem is that Irvin from the beginning has tried to walk an increasingly untenable tightrope, running as a tough-guy conservative in an increasingly hard-right party when, in fact, he’s pretty much a moderate. That may have been a good strategy to get to the general election, but first Irvin had to get through the primary, and in a year in which the primary is in June and not the usual March, his foes “had time to gang up on him,” says one top GOP insider.
Irvin in the time left seems to be trying to argue that he alone can beat Pritzker in the fall. But that message is all positive. On the issues that seem to count to the GOP base—abortion, COVID mandates, fealty to Donald Trump, et al.—Irvin has been unwilling or unable to distinguish himself from his foes. That, I suspect, leaves neither moderates nor conservatives terribly happy or inclined to go out and get him elected.
* I think there are other issues. Crime just doesn’t poll as well as most pundits would have you believe, for one. Irvin’s over-reliance on that issue without talking about things that people really care about have hurt him. Let’s go back to the original Sun-Times/WBEZ polling story…
In one of Bailey’s commercials, he displays a softer side of himself, emphasizing his worn hands holding two fistfuls of corn and tying the shoe of a granddaughter.
“These are the hands of a farmer, strong and determined, a grandfather’s hands, supportive and caring,” running mate Stephanie Trussell says in the ad. […]
“Bailey is courageous, and he says it very clearly what he is for, and I admire that,” she said. “He is not taking necessarily a popular opinion, but he’s doing the right thing.”
Keefe also said she considered Irvin’s reliance on Griffin’s tens of millions of dollars a liability and “very troubling.”
“There’s going to have to be some payback there,” she said, questioning whether Irvin truly could act independently of his uber-wealthy patron. “I’m not sure what side he’s [on] except the side to make Ken Griffin happy and to be the governor.”
Irvin just doesn’t seem authentic to too many people. And he hasn’t really given us a glimpse of that “softer” side of himself.
JB Pritzker knew in the 2018 primary that he had to somehow sell his billionaire self to liberal primary voters, who mostly hate billionaires. He ran several campaign ads designed to do that (talking about his late mom, driving an elderly woman to the polls, etc.). It worked.
If you’re coming out of almost nowhere and you’re relying almost solely on one person’s billions, then you’d better come off as authentic and independent and you’d better find a way to firmly connect with voters. Pritzker did. Irvin hasn’t.
