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Monday, Dec 14, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* So, how much of a threat is Patrick Hughes to Mark Kirk? Not much so far…

Kirk 41
Thomas 3
Hughes 3
Arrington 2
Martin 2
Lowery 1
Zadek 1
Other cand. (Vol.) 1
Undecided 46

Yes, the undecideds represent 46 percent of the vote, but that 41-3 Kirk-Hughes lead is gonna be incredibly tough to overcome, to say the very least. According to the Tribune poll, just 8 percent of voters have heard enough about Hughes to rate him.

Even Hughes’ own claimed recent polling shows he’s in serious trouble. From a press release…

A recent survey conducted on December 9th and 10th by Wilson Research Strategies of 600 likely Republican primary voters, shows the race for Illinois’ open U.S. Senate seat is largely undecided. 63% of voters indicated that they are undecided about who they will vote for in the February 2nd Primary. 28% of voters indicated they were leaning towards Congressman Mark Kirk and 5% were leaning towards Hinsdale developer Patrick Hughes. Looking closer at the numbers only 7% of voters polled indicated that they were Definitely voting for Kirk while 2% indicated they were Definitely voting for Hughes. No other candidate polled higher than 1%.

Hughes does go on to claim this, however…

When information was given to the voters about Mark Kirk’s support for Cap and Trade support for Hughes surges to 47% and the support for Kirk drops to 13%

Kirk flip-flop explained. You don’t need a weather man to know which way that wind blows.

Tribune crosstabs…

Kirk is even leading among “very conservative” voters. That could change if Hughes can get his act together, but so far he hasn’t. Hughes sent out a single mailer to quite a few GOP voters a week or so ago, but that won’t get him very far. Even interested voters will only look at a mailer for a few seconds before tossing it in the garbage.

“Thinking now about Senate candidate Mark Kirk - compared to your political beliefs, do you think Kirk is too conservative on the issues, not conservative enough, or do you mostly agree with him on the issues?”…

From the pollster…

Voter composition in a primary can change over time. The current poll yielded 76% of likely voters who describe themselves as conservative, 37% very conservative, up from the previous results.

In four previous GOP primary polls, Jan., ’08, Dec. ’07, March ’06, and Feb. ’06, total conservatives ranged from 64% to 66% including 21% to 26% very conservative. Who is on the ballot may affect composition of voter turnout. But it is also likely that national politics is having an effect on elections this year.

So, the GOP electorate is getting more “very conservative” than in years past, but it’s still probably not enough to defeat Kirk in a primary with anyone in this field.

Conservative polling history…

Notice that the number of Republicans who once defined themselves as “moderate” dropped to 29 percent. That is partially because so many of those people left the party.

From the Tribune story…

Nearly half of voters who call themselves conservatives said they are undecided in the contest. About the same number of conservative voters said they did not know when asked if Kirk’s ideology was too conservative or not conservative enough.

The Hotline weighs in…

But Hughes’ candidacy represents an emerging, and very real, challenge for GOPers: In an era of tea partiers, the centrist Kirk has to move to the right to win a primary. Those moves have already cost Kirk, as Planned Parenthood and environmental groups have repudiated him for recent statements. Conservative challengers to more centrist favorites in NH, FL, OH, CO and other states could make those favorites move to the right.

Dems have been hammering Kirk for his rightward move, and they stand ready to do the same for the more moderate candidates in other states. Kirk has a big lead, and one has to wonder whether he needed to leap so quickly to his right, given his lead in the primary. Other centrists should look to their own poll results to see just how much of a threat conservative candidates really are; it might make their general election mission of appealing to centrist voters all that much easier.

The Hill…

Kirk, whose centrist positions on certain issues have led to some speculation about his primary vulnerability, is not over 50 percent. But no other candidate appears to have asserted him- or herself as a strong alternative with a month and a half to go in the primary.

WGN coverage…

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Democratic Senate primary poll analysis

Monday, Dec 14, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Let’s have a look at the Tribune’s Senate Democratic primary polls, shall we? The toplines and crosstabs are here. The news story is here.

Democratic matchup…

Giannoulias 31
Jackson 17
Hoffman 9
Boyd 2
Meister 1
Marshall 1
Dabney 1
Other cand. (Vol.) 3
Undecided 35

Progress Illinois compares those numbers with previous candidate polling…

Meister Poll (December 3)
Giannoulias: 33%
Jackson: 10%
Hoffman: 7%
Meister: 1%
Uncommitted 49%

Jackson poll (November 10)
Giannoulias: 31%
Jackson: 13%
Hoffman: 8%
Meister 2%
Undecided: 45%

Hoffman poll (October 13)
Giannoulias: 26%
Jackson: 12%
Hoffman: 7%
Meister N/A
Undecided: 55%

Jackson is doing significantly better in the Tribune poll than in any of the other surveys. Hoffman is about the same. After getting a bump in November, Giannoulias is about the same.

Tribune crosstabs…

Also…

Among white primary voters, Giannoulias leads Jackson 38% to 6%. Among African-American voters, Jackson leads 45% to 13%

And…

Giannoulias’ strongest geographic support came from collar-county primary voters, 48 percent of whom backed his bid compared with 14 percent for Hoffman and 8 percent for Jackson. Among Chicago voters, Giannoulias and Jackson were virtually tied at around 30 percent support, while the treasurer held a 28 percent to 16 percent edge over Jackson in the Cook County suburbs, where 40 percent of voters said they were undecided.

If Jackson has the money to compete, she’ll likely come close to sweeping the African-American vote and may do significantly better with women. Whether that’s enough to be victorious will depend on whether Hoffman can somehow jump-start his campaign and Meister can gain a little traction. Meister is focusing on the gay and gay friendly vote as his base, and that’s not inconsequential. Still, Boyd was removed from the ballot, but still outpaced Meister, who has put serious money into his campaign.

Name rec…

You can probably downplay the generic name rec numbers in these contests. It’s probably better to focus on the percentage of people who know enough about the candidates to rate them. A good example of this is Robert Marshall, a radiologist who practices in Kankakee and Joliet. He’s never run for office as a Democrat and has received almost zero coverage, yet 24 percent claimed to have heard of him. Only four percent knew enough about him to rate him, however, and that’s probably too high.

If you look at the name rec numbers that way, you get this…

Giannoulias 39
Jackson 20
Hoffman 15
Marshall 4
Meister 3

Back to the story…

The survey found plenty of room for movement before the Feb. 2 primary elections, with 35 percent of Democratic voters saying they were undecided. The major contenders only recently have begun to roll out their campaigns on the TV airwaves.

Methodology…

This Chicago Tribune Poll is based on interviews of confirmed registered voters likely to vote in the February 2nd Democratic and Republican primaries. In 2008, Illinois primary elections were moved to the first Tuesday in February - for both presidential and off-year state office contests. Before then, primaries were held on the third Tuesday in March. Interviewing was conducted December 2nd to the 8th.

State samples of 600 were interviewed for each state primary. Potential margin of error for each sample is +/- 4.0% at the 95% confidence level. Likely voting was determined based on scale question response.

That last sentence apparently means they didn’t use a voter file to determine likely voters in any of these polls. So, this survey probably captures a lot of low-information voters.

Thoughts?

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Governor’s race polling analysis

Monday, Dec 14, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Password protection removed, bumped up for visibility and comments opened for discussion.]

* The Tribune has Gov. Pat Quinn with a big, 49-23 lead over Dan Hynes…

Among the 600 likely Democratic primary voters surveyed by telephone Dec. 2-8, Quinn had the support of 49 percent to 23 percent for Hynes, the three-term comptroller. Among other candidates, activist William “Dock” Walls had 3 percent, and attorney Ed Scanlan had 2 percent. An additional 21 percent were undecided; 2 were for others. The poll has an error margin of 4 percentage points.

The head-to-heads from the Trib’s toplines and crosstabs, which you can download by clicking here…

I wrote this back in late November…

Early benchmark polling for Quinn had him leading Hynes 54-to-26, with other polls showing similar results. […]

Recent polling conducted by other statewide Democratic candidates show Quinn ahead of Hynes 50-to-38 and 50-to-35, sources say.

So, Hynes is either regressing back to the days before he spent over $2 million on TV ads, or he hasn’t moved up since this race began. Hynes has been able to slightly lower Quinn’s numbers, but he’s stuck. Bad. Very bad.

Quinn job approval among Democrats…

That’s pretty darned huge for an incumbent governor with an $11 billion deficit who’s been hit hard in TV ads by his Democratic primary opponent and one GOP opponent (McKenna).

“Do you approve or disapprove of how Pat Quinn is handling state budget issues?”…

More…

Voters also approve of Quinn’s handling of ethics reform in the post-Blagojevich era by a nearly 2-1 ratio and gave him a similar advantage over Hynes when asked which candidate would better eliminate corruption.

The beauty of the Tribune posting their full questions and answers is that we know from the polling memo that Quinn’s 2-1 ratio on his handling of ethics reforms works is actually 42-22. Not party time, but not bad considering all the heat he’s taken on the editorial pages. As far as which candidate would be better at “eliminating” corruption in government (a goofy premise, to be sure), 34 percent said Quinn and 16 percent said Hynes. 15 percent said “none” and 29 percent didn’t know.

Back to the Tribune’s narrative…

Hynes could try to link Quinn to Blagojevich. Quinn served two terms as Blagojevich’s lieutenant governor and has refused to apologize for backing Blagojevich. During the 2006 re-election campaign, Quinn defended Blagojevich as someone who has “always been a person who’s honest and one of integrity,” despite myriad investigations into his administration.

Maybe. Just 11 percent of Dems said they were less likely to support Quinn when reminded that the governor “ran twice as Lieutenant Governor and running-mate to former Governor Rod Blagojevich.” From what I’ve been told, polling for both Democratic candidates shows that a Blagojevich attack just doesn’t work well against Quinn.

Also, Democrats are split on whether a tax hike is necessary, with 42 percent saying it is necessary and 47 percent saying it isn’t - even though both candidates are pushing for a tax hike…

Among Quinn’s supporters, 57 percent said they believed a tax increase is needed, while 38 percent of Hynes’ backers said they think one is necessary.

That’s one big reason why Hynes has been slamming Quinn on taxes. At least that part of his message is working.

* On to the Republicans and a big Jim Ryan lead…

The Trib says that this is a name ID race so far, and they may be right…

Notice in the head-to-heads that 37 percent of Republicans classify themselves as “very conservative.” That’s why the far right is so hopeless statewide.

The Tribune results are pretty close to Adam Andrzejewski’s poll taken in mid November, except that Andrzejewski scores much lower in the Tribune poll. The Trib’s new numbers are in parentheses…

Jim Ryan 30% (26%)
Adam Andrzejewski 11% (6%)
Bill Brady 11% (10%)
Andy McKenna 10% (12%)
Kirk Dillard 7% (9%)
Bob Schillerstrom 3% (2%)
Dan Proft 2% (2%)

Andy McKenna has spent a fortune on TV ads in the weeks since that Andrzejewski poll was taken, but he hasn’t budged.

The Trib asked: “All of the Republicans running for Governor oppose increasing state government taxes. How important is a candidate’s opposition to a state tax increase in deciding on a choice for Governor?” The answers were predictable…

Dillard and Ryan’s recent open-mindedness to a tax hike won’t help there, but just 45 percent said it was likely that the winner would keep his promise to oppose tax hikes, while 49 percent said it wasn’t likely he’d keep it.

Back to the Tribune…

But it is the 31 percent of undecided voters that makes the outcome of the contest far from certain as candidates use the post-New Year holiday period to ramp up TV advertising and telephone pitches. A majority isn’t necessary to win the nomination — in 2006, Judy Baar Topinka won a four-way primary with 38 percent of the vote.

The race has been pretty much static since Jim Ryan declared his intentions. Dillard’s TV blitz during the Tribune’s polling period didn’t help at all. Maybe the voters will change their minds come the big (and, don’t forget, very crowded) January hoo-ha, but unless somebody’s message really catches fire, this is Ryan’s race to lose.

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