Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

*** UPDATED x1 *** O’Brien counters with own poll results

Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* MWRD President Terry O’Brien is releasing his own polling results today in an attempt to counter the Tribune’s poll showing him in last place in the Cook County Board President’s race and trailing badly.

The O’Brien poll was conducted by Cooper & Secrest November 11-17 of 605 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/-4%.

The polling memo, which can be downloaded by clicking here, claims that “Dorothy Brown is likely a temporary frontrunner” and, of course, claims that O’Brien is “positioned to emerge as the ultimate winner.”

O’Brien’s head-to-heads compared to the Trib’s.

*** UPDATE *** I don’t know how I did this, but I screwed up the poll numbers. Preckwinkle is at 16 and O’Brien is at 15. Oops. Sorry about that…

Brown 29% (80% name rec) - Trib: 29%
Preckwinkle 16% (52% name rec) - Trib: 20%
O’Brien 15% (39% name rec) - Trib: 11%
Stroger 13% (96% name rec) - Trib: 14%

More from O’Brien’s pollster…

Just 13% of all primary voters are strong Brown voters… 16% are weak

The memo also touts O’Brien’s second place finish despite being the least well known of the candidates. And it points to Preckwinkle’s four votes for pay raises.

29 Comments

*** UPDATED x2 *** Rasmussen: Giannoulias pulls ahead of Kirk

Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Hot off the presses…

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Illinois voters finds Giannoulias ahead of Kirk 42% to 39%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and 15% are undecided.

In October, the two men were tied at 41% each. In mid-August, Kirk held a modest 41% to 38% lead over Giannoulias.

So, Giannoulias has managed to flip the numbers since August. The other Democrats still trail Kirk, but they’re closing the gap…

Kirk remains ahead of another Democratic hopeful, Cheryle Jackson, president of the Chicago Urban League and a former top aide to disgraced Governor Rod Blagojevich, but his lead has shrunk dramatically. Ahead of Jackson by 17 points – 47% to 30% - in October, he now leads just 42% to 39%. Four percent (4%) like another candidate, and 15% are not sure.

The Republican holds a similar 42% to 38% lead over Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, another contender for the Democratic senatorial nomination. Kirk led Hoffman 43% to 33% in October. Seventeen percent (17%) are undecided, while three percent (3%) favor another candidate.

* Meanwhile…

Fifty-one percent (51%) approve of Governor Pat Quinn’s performance. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove. But Illinois voters are nearly three times as likely to strongly disapprove rather than strongly approve of the job he’s doing.

President Obama’s Illinois approval/disapproval numbers are 58-42, and that’s way better than Rasmussen’s national number of 47-51. Running against Obama is not a great idea here.

* From the toplines…

A proposal has been made to house some Guantanamo prison inmates in Illinois at the Thomson correctional facility. Do you favor or oppose housing Guantanamo prisoners at the Thomson correctional facility in Illinois?

39% Favor
51% Oppose
10% Not sure

No surprise there. The crosstabs show that Republicans oppose the plan 70-28, while a plurality of Democrats support it, 49-37.

Quinn’s job approval…

8% Strongly approve
43% Somewhat approve
25% Somewhat disapprove
22% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure

His support remains soft, but the opposition is strengthening.

Afghanistan is becoming somewhat of an issue in the Democratic US Senate primary, with Cheryle Jackson and David Hoffman questioning the president’s new plan. But the crosstabs show large support for the president’s proposal among Democrats. 62 percent of Democrats “overall” favor the plan, 60 percent of liberals back it and 82 percent of African-Americans support it as well. Jackson is the most opposed of all the candidates, but that issue doesn’t appear to work well with African-American voters.

How it was done…

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted by Rasmussen Reports December 9, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

*** UPDATE 1 *** From a Mark Kirk press release…

Kirk Widens Lead over Giannoulias among Key Independent Voters to 34 Points in Latest Rasmussen Poll

Survey Shows Kirk and Giannoulias Remain in Statistical Dead Heat despite Democrat’s Network TV Ad Blitz

Northbrook, Ill. – A non-partisan poll released by Rasmussen Reports today shows Republican Congressman and Navy veteran Mark Kirk widening his lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias among key independent voters to 34 points despite Giannoulias’ early launch of network television ads to boost his numbers.

Responding to TV ads launched by Democrat David Hoffman, Giannoulias launched his own network television ad campaign at the beginning of the month to boost his name recognition and favorable ratings. But according to the Rasmussen survey, Kirk maintains a 50-32 favorable to unfavorable rating compared to Giannoulias’ 48-36 fav/unfav. Kirk holds a net positive strongly favorable/unfavorable rating of 13-8 while Giannoulias holds an even intensity ratio of 14-14.

The survey released today shows Kirk leading Giannoulias among key independent voters 54-20. In October, Rasmussen showed Kirk leading Giannoulias among this group 53-24. While the October poll showed both Kirk and Giannoulias at 41 with a 4.5-point margin of error, the survey released today shows Giannoulias with a slight 42-39 edge – remaining a statistical dead heat within the margin of error. A November 3rd poll by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies showed Kirk with a 44-38 advantage.

“Despite more than a week of Giannoulias network television advertising, Congressman Kirk widened his lead over Alexi Giannoulias among key independent voters to 34 points without any television advertising from his own campaign,” Kirk spokesman Eric Elk said. “In addition, the survey shows Congressman Kirk and Alexi Giannoulias remain in a statistical dead heat. With a proven record of fighting tax increases, reining in spending and spurring economic growth, Congressman Mark Kirk brings the experience, integrity and reform-minded leadership Illinois needs to create jobs, end corruption and get our state back on track.”

*** UPDATE 2 *** From Giannoulias spokesperson Kati Phillips…

“Bizarre press release aside (which shows him losing), Mark Kirk can’t hide the fact that voters tend not to like flip-floppers who put politics before principles. Whether it’s having it both ways on earmarks, women’s rights, cap n trade, or Sarah Palin’s endorsement, voters know a pander bear when they see one.”

49 Comments

Dorothy Brown leads in Trib poll

Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Bumped up from last night for visibility.]

* A new Tribune poll is not hugely surprising…

Faced with widespread voter dissatisfaction, embattled Cook County Board President Todd Stroger trails Circuit Clerk Dorothy Brown and Chicago Ald. Toni Preckwinkle in the race for the Democratic primary nomination, a Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.

Brown had the support of 29 percent of likely Feb. 2 primary voters, ahead of Preckwinkle’s 20 percent, in the poll of 502 likely voters. Stroger received 14 percent and Terrence O’Brien, president of the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District, had 11 percent.

But the survey found that 26 percent of primary voters are undecided in the race or for someone else — meaning plenty of room exists for the contest to become even more fluid in the post-holiday sprint to the ballot box. […]

O’Brien is the lone white candidate in the race, but the prospect of three African-American candidates splintering the black vote to enable him to win isn’t borne out in the survey.

What is surprising is that for the first time that I can recall, the Tribune has released its questions, toplines and some crosstabs. Click here to download.

Toni Preckwinkle already has a press release out…

We are exactly where we expected to be at this point in our campaign. We entered this race 11 months ago and have been building positive momentum since. We are confident that, as voters continue to hear Toni Preckwinkle’s message - her commitment to repeal the Stroger sales tax increase and bring real reform to County government, that we will win the only poll that matters - on election day.

Our own recent polling shows that Dorothy Brown had a 2:1 name recognition advantage. Yet polling shows even though voters know her, they are unconvinced she deserves a promotion.

The Trib poll’s name recognition advantage for Brown over Preckwinkle - 91 vs. 62- isn’t nearly as high as Preckwinkle claims in her own polling. However, those with either a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the two is about two-to-one for Brown - 56-30. O’Brien comes in last in the Trib poll at 51 percent name rec, while just 14 percent know enough about him to rate him…

And here are the Trib’s crosstabs on the head-to-heads…

Preckwinkle absolutely needs to raise some money to get her message out. Her campaign has done a good job of leaking negative research on Brown and O’Brien to the media, but she obviously needs to reinforce that with advertising.

O’Brien needs to up his name ID, and only lots of cash will do that.

This is one reason why the reformers’ hatred of campaign cash is so misguided. Incumbents are already well-known. Challengers have to establish themselves with voters, but nobody in the reform movement is talking about making TV and radio ads lots cheaper.

Data…

This Chicago Tribune Poll is based on interviews of confirmed registered voters likely to vote in the February 2nd Cook County Democratic primary. Interviewing was conducted December 2nd to the 8th. The sample involved 502 Cook County Democratic primary voters, for a potential margin of error of 4.4% at the 95% level of confidence.

26 Comments

Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

Comments Off

« NEWER POSTS