Underdog Democratic U.S. Senate candidate David Hoffman has a new poll which purports to show that he’s in the hunt, but the camp of Democratic primary rival Alexi Giannoulias says there’s no way the poll is accurate.
Hoffman’s survey of 505 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted October 2-4 by Hart Research Associates. The initial head-to-head has Giannoulias, now the state treasurer, leading with 18 percent, followed by Urban League President Cheryle Jackson at 7 percent and 5 percent for Hoffman, the former city of Chicago inspector general and a former federal prosecutor.
The Giannoulias campaign, however, points to a poll it took July 28 through Aug. 2 that had its guy at 45 percent, with 17 percent for Chris Kennedy and 13 percent for Jackson. No way, they say, could they be as low as Hoffman’s poll shows.
The Hoffman pollster read “positive” statements about all three candidates, and afterward another head-to-head was conducted. Hoffman jumped into the lead with 36 percent to 27 percent for Giannoulias and 11 percent for Jackson. Read those positive “pushes,” however, and you’ll see that Hoffman’s positive statements paint the man as almost a superhero. “He earned a reputation for being fiercely independent and putting accountability ahead of politics by exposing insider deals and taxpayer rip-offs, including the Chicago parking meter scandal,” is just one.
Afterward, the Hoffman pollster posed negative questions. While not all were divulged, some were, including an undefined “criticism involving loans to Tony Rezko by the Broadway Bank.” The Giannoulias family owns Broadway. Questions were also asked about Hoffman, including one about how he was once “a law clerk for conservative judges, including former Chief Justice William Rehnquist, who opposed a woman’s right to choose.”
After all the questions, both positive and negative, Hoffman’s poll claims he leads with 43 percent to 18 for Jackson and just 16 for Giannoulias.
This isn’t really a surprise. Giannoulias’ negatives obviously make him quite vulnerable or the White House wouldn’t have spent so much time and energy trying to recruit somebody else to run last summer.
The question is whether Hoffman will have enough money to make his case and drive his points home, both positive for himself and negative against Giannoulias, before the Feb. 2 primary. Right now, he’s reportedly raised about $900,000, more than half of that from his own pocket.
Candidates will need to spend tons of money in January because so many others will be running ads. The Democrats and Republicans have the two big primaries - governor and U.S. Senate. Republican Senate candidate Mark Kirk’s open 10th Congressional District seat will probably see some Chicago TV spending by both parties. The Cook County Board president’s race could see more than a few bucks spent.
The bottom line is that without big bucks, even a compelling message might easily be lost in the TV clutter. That’s a big reason why state Comptroller Dan Hynes started running commercials so early against Gov. Pat Quinn.
Money is still a serious “if” with Hoffman. He raised a decent amount of cash right out of the gate, but it’s uncertain whether he can sustain it. Hoffman’s quite the fighter, though, so we’ll see how it plays out.
Meanwhile, Republican state Sen. Kirk Dillard has a new poll that may show a major bounce from Jim Edgar’s endorsement of him for governor.–
The former GOP governor announced his Dillard endorsement last Monday, and Dillard’s campaign followed up almost immediately with 300,000 “robocalls” to Republican primary voters. The calls featured Edgar asking voters to support Dillard.–
The new automated poll, which was taken Wednesday, shows Dillard with 23.5 percent of the vote. His closest competitor is former attorney general Jim Ryan, with 10.5 percent. State Sen. Bill Brady is third at 8.5 percent. Former Illinois Republican Party chairman Andy McKenna, who will likely have the most money to spend on this race (the word is more than $3.5 million) and who just hired a new media consultant, scored just 2.56 percent.–Nearly 45 percent remain undecided, however, so this is still anybody’s game.
A poll conducted last week for another statewide Republican campaign showed a similarly dramatic “Edgar bounce” for Dillard. Those numbers have not been officially released, but they show almost the same result for Dillard, providing more evidence that the Edgar impact could be real.–
The Dillard poll was taken by We Ask America of 3,193 likely Republican voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.73 percent.
* On a related noted, I’m told by a Republican source not affiliated with the Dillard campaign that Sen. Dillard has placed at least $17,512 on radio stations in Bloomington, Decatur, Peoria, Rockford, and Springfield for 10/19-10/29. That ain’t a lot of cash. “This buy is weak,” the GOP source said, but it’s the Edgar endorsement.
* Preckwinkle needs Daley’s backing to win : While the media got into a tizzy about Stroger’s reverends, the incumbent’s approval rating stands at 10 percent. Black voters are smart enough to smile, give “pastor” a hallelujah, then make an intelligent choice on Election Day. I hope.
* Danny Davis to decide which post to seek: Nov. 9 is when candidates have to declare what office they are seeking. Davis said he may announce before then which office he would be a candidate for but don’t be surprised if he takes his time. “I am going to say what I am going to do when it’s time,” Davis told the Defender. “I am under no pressure to make a decision on which office to pursue. If someone wants to run for my congressional seat they are free to do so. I am not preventing anyone from getting out here circulating petitions and raising money to run.”
* More money totals for congressional races surface: Long Grove Mayor Maria Rodriguez, considered the top Republican candidate in the February 2010 primary [in Democrat Melissa Bean’s district], raised $22,525 during the filing period.
* Rep. Wait’s aide to seek to replace his boss
* Bean skips get-together to tend to daughter with swine flu
* Lipinski: Constituents Support Jobs Priority
