* Yet another poll shows Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson with a big lead over Martin Ozinga in the 11th Congressional District. This time, it’s from Roll Call…
In the poll, Halvorson, whom Republicans have worked overtime in recent months trying to link with Land of Lincoln’s scandal-plagued Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), was ahead of Ozinga, 50 percent to 37 percent. Green Party candidate Jason Wallace took 9 percent of the vote.
According to the poll, taken by SurveyUSA, Ozinga’s unfavorables outnumbers his favorables 37-29. The reverse was true for the Democrat Halvorson, 41-27. That’s still kinda high, and it reflects the negative advertising. Halvorson’s attacks appear to be working so far.
* These are also telling numbers…
Halvorson also polled better with self- described members of the opponent’s party. In the survey, Ozinga picked up 77 percent of GOP vote, 5 percent from Democrats and 30 percent of independents. Halvorson took 89 percent of the Democratic vote, 13 percent from Republicans and 44 percent from independents.
The third-party candidate also appears to be helping Halvorson, siphoning off more votes from registered Republicans than registered Democrats in the poll, as well as 20 percent of the vote from self-described independents.
Obama is leading 49-44 in a district President Bush won with 53 percent four years ago. Ozinga is simply under-performing.
* Ozinga appears on a congressional Republican “death list” of candidates who have little chance of winning. From US News & World Report’s political blog..
A document provided to Washington Whispers from a House GOP official shows that they could lose a net 34 seats. That means the Democrats would have a 270-165 advantage in the 111th Congress. In the Senate, Republicans expect to lose also but to keep up to 44 seats, ensuring their ability to stage a filibuster.
The document provided to Whispers is no gag: It comes from one of the key House GOP vote counters. The source called it a “death list.” The tally shows several different ratings of 66 House Republicans in difficult races or open seats held by retiring Republicans. “Rating 1″ finds 10 Republicans “likely gone.”
Those districts are New York 13, Alaska, Arizona 1, Virginia 11, New York 25, Illinois 11, Florida 24, Michigan 7, Nevada 3, and North Carolina 8.
Oof.
* And Halvorson is getting a big boost in this south suburban, exurban and rural district from the NRA…
Illinois Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson, running for Congress in a Republican-leaning south suburban district, is shooting for support from gun owners.
Halvorson plans to announce an endorsement today from the National Rifle Association.
“When her party leaders pressed an anti-gun agenda, Halvorson pushed back,” Halvorson quotes the NRA saying in a news release.
* PI has posted Halvorson’s latest TV ad, which bashes both Ozinga and Rod Blagojevich…
A Democratic state representative from Chicago who appears in a television ad for Republican state Rep. AARON SCHOCK’s congressional campaign says she didn’t think her actions would tip the balance in a central Illinois district she believes is “very Republican.”
“I honestly thought I would not get a phone call on this because who the heck knows who I am in Peoria?” said Rep. SUSANA MENDOZA, who in addition to being a House member, works for the city of Chicago as project coordinator with the department of planning and development.
She also didn’t know something that is becoming more apparent — that U.S. Sen. DICK DURBIN of Springfield is making a strong effort for the Democratic candidate in that race, COLLEEN CALLAHAN of Kickapoo.
Republican Aaron Schock Wednesday sought to defend himself against Democrat Colleen Callahan’s new TV ad, which criticizes him over backdating documents as a notary.
The spot is meant to hit Schock on reports that he signed off on documents that had inaccurate dates for his father. In the spot, Callahan praises two Republicans who have occupied the 18th Congressional District seat she wants, former U.S. Rep. Bob Michel and current U.S. Rep. Ray LaHood, a Republican who is retiring at the end of his term.
LaHood clarified Wednesday that he’s supporting Schock. LaHood said Callahan shouldn’t have used his name in the ad and argued it should be taken off airwaves.
*** UPDATE *** [posted by Kevin Fanning] It looks like the DCCC is now playing hot potato with the aforementioned Halvorson ad:
The DCCC’s spokesman did not respond to questions about who signed off on the ad and why it targets Mr. Blagojevich — who, according to a poll in Thursday’s Chicago Tribune, has an approval rating in the state of just 13%, even lower than President George W. Bush.
Eric Adelstein, the media consultant for the Democratic candidate in the race, state Sen. Debbie Halvorson, stressed that the DCCC buy was an “independent expenditure” in which the Halvorson campaign had no input.
Congressman Rahm Emmanuel adds his two cents…
U.S. Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Chicago, who once headed the DCCC and unofficially shepherds Illinois congressional races, said he, too, was not involved in developing the ad or deciding to run it. But like Mr. Adelstein, he said he likes the spot because it “levels the playing field a little bit.”
* The Governor’s office had no official comment, but there was this little tid bit at the end of the story…
Mr. Blagojevich, himself a former congressman, is said to have “gone ballistic” when he first heard of the spot.
And the beat goes on…
*** UPDATE *** [posted by Kevin Fanning] A commenter just pointed out the following:
Josh Kalven - Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 4:22 pm:
Blagojevich is responding to a different ad — not the one produced by the Halvorson campaign, which we posted and you embedded above.
Blagojevich is upset about the recent anti-Ozinga spot from the DCCC, which is much harder on him.
Josh is correct. Thanks for spotting it. Here is the other video mentioned in the Crain’s article:
