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This just in… Halvorson poll has her ahead by 19

Friday, Oct 17, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 3:31 pm - Democrat Debbie Halvorson’s congressional campaign has just released a new poll, which shows her leading Republican Martin Ozinga by 19 points. I’ve asked the Ozinga campaign to provide any recent numbers that they might have. From the executive summary…

* Halvorson leads Ozinga by a 48% to 29% margin, with Green Party candidate Jason Wallace at 5%. Halvorson has built a sizeable 19-point lead, but still needs a few points of expansion in order to win.

* Halvorson more than doubled her lead since mid-September when she led by 8 points (43% Halvorson / 35% Ozinga). Although Ozinga has made substantial investments in cable television and mail, Halvorson’s message about strengthening the middle class and fixing the national healthcare crisis has moved the race in her favor.

* The candidates have similar name identification (63% Halvorson / 59% Ozinga), but Ozinga has a high unfavorable rating that makes it difficult for him to expand his support. More voters are unfavorable towards Ozinga than favorable (27% favorable / 32% unfavorable). Ozinga’s favorable rating is 13 points lower than Halvorson’s and his unfavorable rating is 10 points higher than Halvorson’s (40% favorable / 22% unfavorable).

* Since September, Democrats have gone from a small deficit on the generic ballot (38% Democrat / 40% Republican) to a small advantage (38% Democrat / 36% Republican). Barack Obama has taken a 2-point lead (43% Obama / 41% McCain) after trailing by 5 points in mid-September.

* Details…

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=400 live telephone interviews with likely 2008 general election voters in Illinois CD-11. Interviews were conducted between October 10-13, 2008. Respondents were selected at random with interviews apportioned geographically based on expected voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.9% at a 95% confidence level.

…Adding… From the Ozinga campaign…

“So Debbie Halvorson and three liberal special-interest groups spend over $2 million in false and personal smear ads against Marty Ozinga, and she’s still under 50%? Halvorson is clearly vulnerable to a late Ozinga surge once her shameful record of rubber-stamping Blagojevich’s failed agenda sinks in with voters in these final weeks.”

…Adding a thought… Since there are three candidates in the race, Halvorson may not need to hit 50 percent.

* Related…

Democrat Debbie Halvorson holds a slight lead in fundraising in the race to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Jerry Weller in Congress.

Halvorson, a Democrat from Crete, reported raising $580,000 between July and October, compared to Republican Martin Ozinga’s $563,000. Green Party candidate Jason Wallace of Normal raised $750. […]

“We think it’s a neck-and-neck race,” Ozinga campaign manager Andy Sere said.

According to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Halvorson raised $580,000 between July and Oct. 1, while spending more than $1.2 million.

Halvorson had $274,545 in the bank.

* 4:26 pm - Watch Congresscritter Judy Biggert completely lose her train of thought during a debate yesterday on Chicago Tonight. It ain’t pretty…

She didn’t do too well earlier in the debate, either, appearing, without lots of success, to access talking points in her mind to fit the question…

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A big, fat goose egg for Blagojevich

Friday, Oct 17, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I told subscribers about a new Rasmussen Reports poll earlier this week, but I figured it was time to clue in the blog as well.

Rasmussen asked: How do you rate the way that Rod Blagojevich is performing his role as Governor? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Zero percent rated Gov. Blagojevich performance as “excellent.”

Zero.

As we used to say in Germany: “Nix, Nein, Frankenstein.”

Last month, 3 percent rated Blagojevich’s performance as “excellent,” which ain’t much, but it was at least something.

* Here are this month’s Blagojevich job approval results with last month’s in parentheses…

Excellent 0 (3)
Good 4 (9)
Fair 29 (28)
Poor 65 (60)
Not sure 1 (0)

Notice that his “poor” rating has risen from 60 to 65 percent.

Oof.

* The Illinois Campaign for Political Reform’s David Morrison comments over at Illinoize…

A 2000 General Election exit survey I found on-line suggests that 32% Illinois voters held a favorable view of then-Gov. George Ryan, which was after the first two dozen Operation Safe Roads convictions but still nearly three years before he was indicted and four years before his conviction. It would seem that George Ryan was 8 times as popular as Gov. Blagojevich.

* Blagojevich’s rating is even below President Bush’s, according to Rasmussen: How do you rate the way that George W. Bush is performing his role as President? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?

10% Excellent
15% Good
11% Fair
64% Poor
0% Not sure

* Another question from Rasmussen: Have things in Illinois gotten better, worse or stayed the same since Rod Blagojevich became governor?

5% Better
67% Worse
25% Stayed the same
4% Not sure

* These sorts of stories aren’t helping…

The Blagojevich administration still isn’t saying how many people might be affected by an ill-fated health insurance program the governor launched last year.

A day after a Cook County judge ordered the administration to dismantle the FamilyCare expansion program, the administration wouldn’t say how many people might be left in the lurch from the decision.

‘’We are currently reviewing the decision and are determining how many people would be affected, but the governor is committed to making sure that these families continue to get the insurance they need,'’ said Annie Thompson, spokeswoman for the Illinois Department of Healthcare and Family Services.

It is not clear why the administration hasn’t said how many people are enrolled in the program, which offered state-backed health insurance to people earning 400 percent of the poverty level, or up to $83,000 annually for a family of four.

What a disaster.

* Speaking of disasters, an overwhelming majority of respondents said they were cutting back on their holiday spending, which generally drives the nation’s economy…

* This holiday season, will you spend more or less on gifts than you did last year?

6% More
69% Less
23% About the same
2% Not sure

* More poll results…

* Should the Illinois State Constitution be amended to give voters the opportunity to recall statewide elected officials?

57% Yes
23% No
20% Not sure

* Do you favor or oppose Chicago’s bid for the 2016 Summer Olympic games?

64% Favor
26% Oppose
10% Not sure

* Senate Election

Sauerberg 31%
Durbin 62%
Other 0%
Not sure 7%

* 2008 Presidential General Election Match-Ups

McCain 39%
Obama 56%
Other 0%
Not sure 5%

* In terms of how you will vote for President, are you primarily interested in National Security issues such as the War with Iraq and the War on Terror, Economic issues such as jobs and economic growth, Domestic Issues like Social Security and Health Care, Cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion, or Fiscal issues such as taxes and government spending?

50% Economic Issues
19% National Security Issues
9% Domestic Issues
8% Cultural Issues
8% Fiscal Issues
6% Not sure

The economy is everything.

Discuss.

[Illinois Survey of 500 Likely Voters Conducted October 13, 2008. Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 4.5%.]