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Another poll in the 18th - And Versace’s bad reviews

Thursday, Oct 11, 2007 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Via Bill Dennis, Jim McConoughey is a Republican candidate in the race to replace retiring Republican Ray LaHood and has released a new poll…

As the race stands today, among those voters who have a definite opinion of whom they would support, Aaron Shock garners 23%, Jim McConoughey garners 6.6% and John Morris is at 2.6%. The key point is that 67.8% of likely Republican primary voters are not firmly committed to any one candidate.

The key driver in Schock’s early lead is simply name identification. Of likely voters in next year’s primary, 51% of voters have “heard of” and have a “formed opinion” of Schock, while McConoughey’s number stands at 19.6% and Morris is at 19.2%.

* After biographies were read to the respondents (no bios supplied yet) the poll shows these numbers…

McConoughey Bio – 37.8%
Aaron Schock Bio – 29.4%
John Morris Bio – 13.4%
Undecided – 17.2%
Refused – 2.2%

* Methodology….

The survey was conducted September 10-11, among 500 Illinois voters in the 18th Congressional District who indicated they were likely to cast a Republican ballot in the primary next February. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%

* Schock also polled this district back in late August, when incumbent Ray LaHood’s son was still considering the race. The trendlines, such as they are, are below, with the more recent McConoughey’s results listed first…

McConoughey – 6.6/3
Aaron Schock – 23/44
Darin LaHood - WD/22
John Morris – 2.6/3
Undecided – 67.8/30

* Make of this what you will, but if McConoughey releases a strong financial report this month then it will be much easier to make his case that getting his message out is what he needs to win.

There are very high expectations for Schock’s fundraising abilities, so McConoughey’s financial success, or lack thereof, is a crucial issue here. If he has no money - or if he’s buried by Schock’s cash - there will be no message.

* The most prominent Democratic candidate is, of course, Dick Versace, whose campaign kickoff event didn’t go over well with several people who covered it, including Bernie Schoenburg

However, the idea that his life has taught Versace something he can pass on to voters was turned on its head at the end of the session. That’s when Versace, whose campaign manager recently moved in from Washington, D.C., refused to answer questions from reporters.

Well, if Versace has life experience, he probably has opinions on things like gun control and abortion and health care, not to mention how to get the U.S. out of a war he said he wants to end. He said he wants to hear from voters during a listening tour before giving his views on the issues, on the grounds that, if people knew he had views already, why would they want to talk to him?

How silly. People give their two cents’ worth to politicians all the time, on a wide range of issues they care about, hoping to reinforce or change policy decisions. The abrupt end to the event was clearly a gimmick to keep Versace from saying the wrong thing. The tactic also kept news outlets from providing a better picture of a first-time candidate who voters know nothing about except that he’s been big in basketball.

It’s bad enough when the governor plays games and walks away with mouth shut. It’s not smart for a new candidate seeking to introduce himself to do the same thing.

Basketball is a game. Representing people in Congress shouldn’t be.

* More here

Versace tells audiences that he’s not a career politician. A experienced politician — such as Ray LaHood, for example, or two of the people running the GOP nomination — would not be so foolish as to enter a race not willing and able to discuss the issues on day one of the campaign.

* And here

“If I answer questions on issues today, the people who I’m going to go visit would say, ‘What do you need to see us for? We already know where you stand,’” Versace told reporters during a contentious Springfield news conference formally launching his long-expected candidacy.

When pressed by reporters for some hint of his stance on issues, Versace responded: “I don’t want to debate this with you. I’ll tell you what: Your question deserves an answer, and I’m going to give you an answer. But it’s not going to be today. OK?”

Discuss.

  21 Comments      


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