[Bumped up from Saturday and updated]

We’ll open comments Comments are now open on this on Tuesday.

A multi-million-dollar television advertising blitz hasn’t bought Gov. Rod Blagojevich a single percentage point of increased popularity in recent months, according to a new poll that shows his support among Illinoisans stuck below 50 percent going into his fall re-election race.

But the Democrat continues to lead Republican opponent Judy Baar Topinka, 47-39 percent, according to the latest Research 2000 poll for The Southern Illinoisan and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. His immense TV campaign — estimated at between $6 million and $10 million since March — apparently has helped drive Topinka’s “unfavorable” rating up by almost 10 points since the spring primary. […]

When independent voters are factored in, just 22 percent of all poll respondents said the scandal makes them less likely to vote for Blagojevich, while 71 percent said it would not affect their vote. […]

The poll found that all three incumbent statewide Democrats running for re-election — Attorney General Lisa Madigan, Secretary of State Jesse White and Comptroller Daniel Hynes — are far ahead of their Republican challengers. In the one statewide seat currently held by the Republicans — state treasurer, the office Topinka is vacat-ing to run for governor — Democratic candidate Alexi Giannoulias holds a modest lead over the Republican hopeful Christine Radogno.

The Illinois Green Party’s Rich Whitney, by the way, came in at 2 percent.

UPDATE: The complete poll is here.

UPDATE 2: Well, maybe those aren’t the “complete” results. From the Saturday Daily Chronicle:

Who is more popular, George bush or George Ryan? Day 2 of the poll resutls will be posted Sunday evening.

UPDATE 3: Click here for a graphic version of the poll results which is much easier to read, but doesn’t have the crosstabs. [gif file]

UPDATE 4: George Ryan unpopular, but still above Bush

UPDATE 5: Issue results for questions on national things like the war in Iraq are here.

UPDATE 6: My weekly newspaper column wasn’t based on this poll, but on downstate legislative polling in individual districts.

As President George W. Bush’s job approval ratings continue to slump, Republican incumbents almost everywhere are running away from him as fast as they can. It’s gotten so bad that even U.S. Rep. Tom Reynolds, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, doesn’t have the word “Republican” on his campaign website’s front page.

Next door in Missouri, Democrat Claire McCaskill has hammered incumbent GOP Sen. Jim Talent for being a “George Bush Republican.” In response, Talent has tried to play up his bipartisanship and even, in an undoubtedly desperate move, boasted about how he was working with liberal California Sen. Dianne Feinstein. The “George Bush Republican” attack is being thrown at frightened congressional Republicans all over the country as the usually hapless national Democrats attempt to exploit the biggest opening they’ve had in years.

Almost exactly the same attack will be used here in Illinois, except it will be the state legislative Republicans employing the tactic to smear their opponents as “Rod Blagojevich Democrats.

UPDATE 7: From a press release:

State Senator Christine Radogno, the Republican nominee for Illinois treasurer, commenting on the release of a newspaper poll on the treasurer’s race, said her opponent’s support is deteriorating as voters find out more about the candidates.

At the end of July Giannoulias claimed an 11 point lead. The Post-Dispatch poll released over Labor Day weekend showed Giannoulias clinging to a seven point lead. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

“The new numbers show significant erosion of his support,” said Radogno. “He is slipping in the polls. His support among statewide voters is disintegrating as they find out more about the ethical problems surrounding Mr. Giannoulias.”

Radogno also said as voters pay more attention to the Treasurers race, they find out more about both candidates. “Once voters become aware that Mr. Giannoulias has loaned tens of millions of dollars to convicted felons with reputed ties to organized crime and he himself is the defendant in a fraud lawsuit where a senior citizen was allegedly swindled, they are turning away from his candidacy” Radogno said.

Radogno also said voters are comparing the qualifications of both candidates. “When voters look at the records they see that I have an unblemished 10-year record of public service in the Senate working on state budgets. They see a history of experience in state and local government,” said Radogno. “And then they see that the sum total of Mr. Giannoulias’ work experience is less than four years working for his family’s bank. He has no experience whatsoever in government at any level.”

Radogno concluded, “We are very happy that voters are making distinctions between the two of us in this race.”