Question of the day
Friday, Jun 16, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
Let’s go back to my syndicated column about that recent poll. It was not only about corruption, but about Judy Baar Topinka’s troubles with Republicans.
The survey also shows big trouble for Topinka with Republicans since the last Glengariff Group poll was taken in April, when 81 percent of Republican voters supported her candidacy. Now just 65 percent back their party’s standard-bearer, a likely result of the governor’s TV ads, which appear to be a lot better done than most of the ads run by her primary opponents. The good news for Topinka is that her support among independents is still the same — 39 percent.
Back in November, Glengariff had Blagojevich at 39 percent, and he was at 41 percent in April, so he hasn’t moved much at all. “While the challenger’s numbers have taken a hit,” pollster Czuba said in a news release, “Rod Blagojevich appears to be stuck at 41 percent of the vote and unable to translate undecided voters into his camp.” Right now, though, the main task at hand is to drive Topinka’s negatives up so high that she can’t recover. However, an incumbent whose administration is unfavorably likened to a convicted former governor and who is stuck at 41 percent is not in the greatest shape, no matter how much money he has.
Blagojevich leads in Chicago 60 to 17 and in suburban Cook County 43 to 28, according to Glengariff. Back in April, Topinka had a big lead in suburban Cook, 50 to 33, so this is another ominous development for her. The Democratic governor even has a slight lead in the Republican collar counties, 36 to 34 — a likely result of Topinka’s big drop in GOP support and strikingly bad news. In April, Topinka had a 51-to-35 lead over Blagojevich in the collars. Topinka leads in all downstate regions.
What do you think Topinka has to do to win back Republican voters? Also, what do you think of the guv’s numbers?