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Poll: Five points separate five mayoral candidates as union money whacks Daley

Friday, Feb 15, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Telemundo NBC 5 poll…

Undecided: 19 percent

Toni Preckwinkle: 14 percent

Bill Daley: 13 percent

Susana Mendoza: 12 percent

Lori Lightfoot: 10 percent

Gery Chico: 9 percent

Amara Enyia: 7 percent

Jerry Joyce: 4 percent

Willie Wilson: 4 percent

Garry McCarthy: 3 percent

Paul Vallas: 2 percent

Bob Fioretti: 1 percent

LaShawn Ford: 1 percent

Neal Sales-Griffin: 1 percent

John Kozlar: —-

…Adding… Preckwinkle campaign…

A new Tulchin Research poll conducted February 6-10, 2019 finds Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle continues to lead a crowded field of candidates for Mayor of Chicago. Preckwinkle is well positioned to make the runoff election, as she currently runs ten points ahead of her closest challenger, and she leads both Bill Daley and Susana Mendoza in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups. […]

Toni Preckwinkle currently runs first among the field of mayoral candidates, attracting support from 21 percent of voters. Clustered together and statistically tied for second place are Willie Wilson (11%), Bill Daley (10%), Susana Mendoza (10%), Lori Lightfoot (9%), and Amara Enyia (8%) and 13 percent of voters remain undecided.

* More…

The largest number of undecideds are black voters (24 percent) and Hispanic voters (22 percent). The margin of error is plus-or-minus 4 percent. […]

Crime and drugs were listed by 21 percent of voters [as an issue important in determining their vote]; economy and jobs were listed by 19 percent; public corruption was listed by 11 percent, as was schools; and high taxes came in at 10 percent. […]

Nearly six out of 10 voters said the city is on the wrong track, again with more women than men disenchanted.

* Meanwhile, from last night…

The union and fund are not supporting any of the other 13 candidates in the race, just making clear that they support "anybody but Daley." The engineers backed Gery Chico in 2011 and Rahm Emanuel in 2015.

— Bill Ruthhart (@BillRuthhart) February 14, 2019

* So, despite the following article being labeled as a “scoop” this morning, it’s not. However, it does have some good info…

The attack ad focuses on Daley’s career as a banker. A voice says: “As president of SBC, Daley took a million-dollar bonus and then laid off 5,000 workers. Then as the chairman of a Wall Street bank, Daley took more than $15 million—the same year his bank admitted to illegally overcharging thousands of active duty troops and driving military families into foreclosure, forcing them out of their homes. Bill Daley—a Wall Street banker who got rich off working people.”

Fight Back Fund is connected to the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150—they share the same address and James Sweeney, the head of Local 150, is an officer with the PAC. The ad buy was made through Left Hook Communications, a left-leaning political strategy firm.

During the 2018 midterms, Fight Back played a huge role in funding conservative former state Sen. Sam McCann’s campaign for governor. McCann ultimately pulled votes away from Republican incumbent Gov. Bruce Rauner. Before that, the same independent expenditure PAC spent big money to oppose attorney general candidates Pat Quinn and Scott Drury (both Democrats) and Erika Harold (a Republican).

Other trade unions are helping fund the PAC, according to a source familiar with the organization. It appears Local 150 isn’t supporting any one candidate for mayor, but it knows which one it doesn’t want to win—that would be Daley.

* Rate it…

* Related…

* Toni Preckwinkle’s final campaign ad before election reflects on her career: ‘Want a mayor who’ll fight for you?’

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Poll: Mendoza in 5th place, Daley closing on Preckwinkle, Chico and Wilson in the hunt

Friday, Jan 25, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* We Ask America poll for the Sun-Times. 644 likely voters contacted this past Monday through Wednesday with a +/-3.88 MoE. Dorothy Brown was included and received 4.7 percent, but she’s now off the ballot. Undecideds totaled 26 percent…

#ChiMayor19 @Suntimes

12.7% @ToniForChicago
12.1% Bill Daley
9.3% Gery Chico
9% Willie Wilson
8.7% Susana Mendoza
4.3% Paul Vallas
3.7% Garry McCarthy
3.1% Amara Enyia
2.8% Lori Lightfoot
1.2% La Shawn Ford
0.9% Bob Fioretti
0.9% Jerry Joyce
0.6% John Kolzar
0 Neal Sales-Griffin

— Richard Streetman (@DickStreetman) January 25, 2019

Full results are here.

* More…

Asked who they’d prefer in a match-up between Preckwinkle and Mendoza — two candidates who have repeatedly targeted one another — voters gave Mendoza the edge. The poll found the comptroller with 43.5 percent compared to Preckwinkle’s 35.1 percent. Another 21.4 percent were undecided.

In a race between Daley and Preckwinkle, the poll found Daley with a slight lead over Preckwinkle — 40.1 percent over 38.2 percent, another statistical dead heat. Another 21.7 percent were undecided.

In a hypothetical match-up between Mendoza and McCarthy, the comptroller clobbered the former top cop, 54 percent to 24.2 percent. Again 21.7 percent were undecided.

It looks like the other candidates had better beat up on Mendoza to keep her out of the second round or their gooses could be cooked.

* More from the poll…

Which of the following list of issues do you think is MOST important to you as a Chicago resident?

Chicago’s Crime 29.2%
Chicago’s Financial Crisis 22%
Quality of Chicago Schools 21.1%
Political corruption 9.0%
Police reform 7.8%
Race relations 7.1%
None of these 3.7%

Notice that “corruption” was in fourth place at 9 percent. Voters seem keen to hear more about candidates’ actual plans. But the political types are all focusing on scoring gotchas over Ed Burke.

* Among African-Americans, Willie Wilson is clobbering Toni Preckwinkle 20-11. Dorothy Brown was getting 9 percent of black voters, and the expectations are that she will endorse Wilson, but I don’t know if that will transfer. In third was Bill Daley at 7 percent. 28 percent were undecided, however.

Among whites, Daley has 17 percent to Chico’s 12 percent, with 24 percent undecided.

Among Latinos, Mendoza led with 19.5 percent to Chico’s 17. Preckwinkle and Daley were essentially tied for third with 14.6 percent.

* Among 18-24 year olds, Daley and Wilson were tied at 15.4 percent, with nobody else breaking double digits.

* This older poll was robo-called…

Preckwinkle’s new poll was commissioned by SEIU Illinois Local 1. Public Policy Polling, a Democratic automated polling firm, surveyed 798 Chicago voters from Jan. 18-20. The poll found Preckwinkle “is in the lead with 15% of Chicago voters supporting her,” according to a poll memo released to POLITICO. Bill Daley was second with 12 percent; Gery Chico had 11 percent; Wilson, 10 percent; Paul Vallas and Susana Mendoza each got 9 percent; Lori Lightfoot, 8 percent, and Garry McCarthy and Amara Enyia had 6 and 4 percent, respectively. But 17 percent were “undecided.”

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