* Polling memo…

From: Katherine Patterson, Public Policy Polling
To: Interested Parties
Subject: Majority in Key Illinois HDs Support Fair Tax Amendment
Date: May 20, 2019

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that a majority (58%) of voters in Illinois Legislative Districts surveyed support an amendment to the Constitution called the Illinois Fair Tax. The amendment, currently being considered by the State Legislature, would change the state’s income tax from a flat tax, where everyone pays the same rate of income tax, to a graduated tax system where wealthier people making more than $250,000 a year pay a higher rate. Only 33% of voters oppose the Illinois Fair Tax amendment.

When presented with arguments in support of and in opposition to the Fair Tax amendment, a majority of voters in the Districts surveyed are convinced by arguments supporting the amendment. 51% of voters are very convinced by the argument that the tax system would be fairer with the amendment, and that 97% of those surveyed would see no increase in their state income taxes. An additional 19% find the argument somewhat convincing, with only 28% of voters unconvinced. A plurality of voters surveyed (47%) are not convinced by the argument by opponents of the Fair Tax that new taxes will be wasted by the state, and that higher income taxes on the wealthy will hurt the Illinois economy.

Key findings from the survey include:

• 75% of Democrats and 55% of independent voters surveyed support the Fair Tax, with only 16% of Democrats and 37% of independents in opposition.
• A majority of voters in every age group support the Fair Tax, with 53% of voters age 18 to 45, 62% of voters aged 46 to 65, and 55% of voters older than 65 in support.

PPP surveyed 517 Illinois voters in House Districts 45, 48, 49, 51, 53, 55, 56, 57, 61, 62, 76, 80, 84, 96, 111 and 112 from May 15-16, 2019. The margin of error is +/- 4.3%. This poll was conducted by telephone.

1) 58 percent is strong support, but it’s gonna need 60 to pass muster with voters (or over half of everyone who votes in the election).

2) A result not fully fleshed out in the memo…

Opponents of the Illinois Fair Tax say these new taxes will simply be wasted by the State and that taxing higher income people more will hurt the Illinois economy and cost jobs. Do you find this a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not a convincing reason to oppose the Illinois Fair Tax?

Very convincing 26%
Somewhat convincing 21%
Not convincing 47%
Not sure 5%

Tied.

3) Also not mentioned in the memo…

Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance?

Approve 39%
Disapprove 57%
Notsure 4%

Oof.

4) PPP is a robopoller, so keep that in mind.

5) District-by-district numbers would be much better.

6) Here are the Democratic House members matched up to their district numbers…

45 - Diane Pappas
48 - Terra Costa Howard
49 - Karina Villa
51 - Mary Edly-Allen
53 - Mark Walker
55 - Martin Moylan
56 - Michelle Mussman
57 - Jonathan Carroll
61 - Joyce Mason
62 - Sam Yingling
76 - Lance Yednock
80 - Anthony DeLuca
84 - Stephanie Kifowit
96 - Sue Scherer
111 - Monica Bristow
112 - Katie Stuart

7) Crosstabs are here.