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Candidate releases poll showing himself at 4 percent

Monday, Sep 9, 2019

* Willie Wilson press release

Ogden & Fry, conducted a 3-question poll for Citizens for Willie Wilson on Wednesday, September 4, statewide regarding political preferences of candidates with 538 respondents. Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely 2020 General Election voters. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.31% at the 95% confidence interval.

* The first question was about voting likelihood. Here’s the second

If the election for United States Senator was held today, for which candidate would you vote?

    Democrat Dick Durbin 44.1%
    Republican Candidate 33.6%
    Independent Willie Wilson 4.0%
    Undecided 18.3%

I guess you gotta start somewhere, but I’m not sure how releasing these numbers helps him.

The third question was a head-to-head between Durbin and Wilson, but that isn’t going to happen and Wilson was still trailing 44-25 among all voters and 72-8 among Democrats.

I’ve asked how many mobile phone users were contacted and whether this was a robopoll or a mixture of robocalls with live callers. It’s been known in the past as an automated outfit.

The firm released a poll two weeks before the Chicago mayoral election which showed Wilson placing second behind Toni Preckwinkle and getting 13.3 percent. He finished fourth with 10.6 percent. The firm also polled for Jeanne Ives in the 2018 primary.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

16 Comments »
  1. - Fax Machine - Monday, Sep 9, 19 @ 11:06 am:

    He should run in the Republican primary if wants a 1 on 1 race.


  2. - Bruce (no not him) - Monday, Sep 9, 19 @ 11:08 am:

    “So you’re saying I have a chance?”


  3. - Ron Burgundy - Monday, Sep 9, 19 @ 11:14 am:

    Why release this? Boggles the mind.

    To the numbers, with the margin of error, he could be at 8, or he could be below zero. /s


  4. - Skeptic - Monday, Sep 9, 19 @ 11:14 am:

    So with the margin of error he could be negative?


  5. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Sep 9, 19 @ 11:17 am:

    “72-8 among Democrats”

    Many aren’t fooled by the Raunerite.


  6. - Steve - Monday, Sep 9, 19 @ 11:18 am:

    Even if this poll isn’t the greatest news for Willie Wilson, it’s not a great poll for Dick Durbin.


  7. - phenom_Anon - Monday, Sep 9, 19 @ 11:32 am:

    =I’m not sure how releasing these numbers helps him=
    I’m guessing he’s trying to demonstrate some viability as a spoiler, if the race begins to look like it will end up being tight. If that’s the case… Is he looking to get something in exchange for dropping out, or is he trying to encourage a little financial help from the R side to booster his spoiler potential?


  8. - Jocko - Monday, Sep 9, 19 @ 11:43 am:

    Before dismissing him out of hand, I want to see what he has to offer…specifically cash offer. /s


  9. - So_Ill - Monday, Sep 9, 19 @ 11:47 am:

    ==Skeptic - Monday, Sep 9, 19 @ 11:14 am:

    So with the margin of error he could be negative?==

    Well played


  10. - Hot Taeks - Monday, Sep 9, 19 @ 12:44 pm:

    I received a call from this pollster on Wednesday night actually! The poll was entirely automated (e.g. press 1 to respond) and I hadn’t even known Willie Wilson was running before I got the call. All in all, I completed the short poll and was on the phone for only 70 seconds. It’s cool that you published the results here.


  11. - Stark - Monday, Sep 9, 19 @ 12:50 pm:

    Imagine being so absent minded as to release a poll where your support percentage is lower than that of the MOE. Incredible political insight. /s


  12. - FakePollingExpert - Monday, Sep 9, 19 @ 12:53 pm:

    This is a very bad poll from a methodology standpoint…

    Testing Democratic candidate Dick Durbin, no name candidate Republican, and Independent Candidate Willie Wilson will skew the results. I would have done a straight generic ballot and then test 3-4 potential Republican nominees and see how the changes the numbers if at all.

    Looks like another lousy consultant putting in a half-hearted effort for an ego-driven self-funder…


  13. - Truthiness - Monday, Sep 9, 19 @ 1:15 pm:

    Running as an independent?

    In 2016, (presidential year) Duckworth got 54.86% to Kirk’s 39.78%. 3rd party candidates, libertarian and green, got a combined 5.346% and the six independents totaled .011%.

    In 2014, (Durbin’s most recent, not presidential) Durbin got 53.55% to Oberweis’ 42.69%. Libertarians got 3.76% and independents got 44 votes, 0.0012%.

    The margin of error means WW is anywhere between 8.31% and -0.31%. I think it’s much more likely he’s negative than it is 4% as an independent.


  14. - Mopar - Monday, Sep 9, 19 @ 2:29 pm:

    I think every vote Wilson gets takes one from Durbin. If he does well with the black vote, he can possibly be a spoiler. The Repubs have to like him.


  15. - State Sen. Clay Davis - Monday, Sep 9, 19 @ 3:01 pm:

    Pollster’s gotta eat somehow.


  16. - Cornish - Monday, Sep 9, 19 @ 7:54 pm:

    Wilson is very popular in the African American community of Chicago. The truth is a large portion of African Americans are not far left, this is a flaw in the current democratic party. Assuming blacks are socliast Sanders/Warren types. This could actually help a good Republican candidate win. Of course there are very few good republicans, so Durbin should not get too worried yet.


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