* Press release…

Stand for Children IL PAC today released the results of the poll it commissioned for the Chicago mayoral run-off. The poll, conducted February 27-28, included 400 likely Chicago voters.

When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 58% of respondents chose Lori Lightfoot and 30% chose Toni Preckwinkle. 12% were undecided.

“Stand for Children has been going door to door to learn what Chicago voters believe the next mayor needs to do so that our schools best serve the children of this city, especially those who are traditionally overlooked and under-tapped because of their skin color, ZIP code, first language, or disability,” said Mimi Rodman, Stand IL PAC chairperson. “Both candidates have made education a priority of their campaigns. The question is which of them can truly deliver and put words into action.”

And if you didn’t know before, now you know why Preckwinkle is already up with negative TV ads. She has to drag Lightfoot down to her own level before she can build herself up.

* Be very careful with these crosstabs because the sample size is on the small side…

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) recently completed a survey of likely April 2019 voters in the City of Chicago, sponsored by Stand for Children. The survey shows Lori Lightfoot begins the race for Mayor with a commanding lead over Toni Preckwinkle. Both candidates are highly recognized and viewed favorably, but more than half of voters say they will back Lightfoot in April.

Some of the specific findings of the survey include the following:

• Both candidates are viewed favorably by a majority of voters. Sixty-four percent view Lightfoot favorably and 53 percent have a favorable opinion of Preckwinkle. However, Preckwinkle also has a greater number of detractors. While only ten percent of voters view Lightfoot unfavorably, more than one-third have an unfavorable opinion of Preckwinkle (37%).

• Voters favor Lightfoot over Preckwinkle by nearly a two-to-one margin. As shown in Figure 1, 58 percent of voters say they will support Lightfoot in the upcoming April election, while thirty percent back Toni Preckwinkle and 12 percent remain undecided.

Lightfoot leads among essentially every major subgroup of the Chicago electorate, including:

o 60% of women and 56% of men;
o 54% of voters under age 50, 68% of those aged 50-64, and 55% of those age 65 and over;
o 60% of college-educated voters and 55% of those without a four-year degree;
o 62% of liberals, 55% of moderates, and 54% of conservatives; and
o 62% of white voters, 59% of Latinos, and a 49% plurality of African-Americans. Lightfoot’s 49% to 40% lead among African-Americans is one of her narrowest of any demographic group.

Lightfoot also wins majority support from the backers of every major candidate that was defeated in the primary election – including a 54% to 38% margin of support among those who backed Bill Daley.

Survey Methodology: From February 27-28, 2019, FM3 completed 400 telephone interviews (on landlines and cellphones) with randomly-selected Chicago voters likely to participate in the April 2019 election. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.9% at the 95% confidence interval. Due to rounding, not all results will sum to 100%.

* By the way, I was out with some folks having dinner Saturday night and one of them, a Chicago resident, received a live polling call. The pollster tested negative messages on both candidates.

I took some quick notes. The pollster tested Preckwinkle’s tax increases, an allegation that she’d made the county’s healthcare system worse, took money from Ed Burke, was a Joe Berrios ally and is a party boss who took TIF developer money.

Lightfoot, the recipients were told, made money representing big corporations, was censured over a deportation and is a faux reformer. Lightfoot pretends to be an outsider, but took appointments from Daley and Emanuel.

I don’t know who was behind that particular poll, but I assume everybody and their sister is in the field these days.