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Morning Consult poll: Rauner approve/disapprove at 26/60

Thursday, Apr 12, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Yikes…

Morning Consult released their latest tracking poll of governors’ approval ratings, and it’s bad news for Bruce Rauner. The failed governor has a net approval rating of -34, the lowest of any incumbent running for re-election.

With his approval rating plummeting to 26% and disapproval rating soaring to 60%, Morning Consult singled Rauner out in their analysis:

    Rauner dropped 10 percentage points in the first three months of the year. He emerged victorious in a March 20 primary contest against state Rep. Jeanne Ives, winning by almost 3 points. Three in 5 Illinois voters disapprove of Rauner’s job performance as he looks to hold off Democratic candidate J.B. Pritzker, a billionaire philanthropist and venture capitalist, in November.

“After Bruce Rauner’s disastrous record almost lost him the primary, the most vulnerable incumbent is stumbling through the general election and losing support by the day,” said Pritzker campaign communications director Galia Slayen. “Illinoisans know they can’t afford another four years of a failed governor that fatally mismanages the Quincy Veterans’ Home and drives the state economy into the ground.”

The poll is here. But, as always, be a bit wary. Its methodology is unusual.

According to Morning Consult, Rauner is the third most unpopular governor in the country and the most unpopular of those running for reelection this year.

* Almost exactly one year ago today, Morning Consult’s poll had Rauner trending upward

Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) has improved his standing in traditionally blue Illinois. Forty-two percent of Illinoisans now approve of Rauner, up from 33 percent in September, while his disapproval rating has dropped from 56 percent to 49 percent over the same time period.

Then he fired his top staff and all heck broke loose.

* Some alternate history from a purged Raunerite…

He doesn’t fire us, he goes on tour to slam the GA. Runs new ads playing off his veto of the tax hike. No bad news all summer. He goes into education fight with leverage, issues clean AV of the bailout and runs ads saying Chicago is trying to shut down our schools. Clean AV of the abortion bill as promised and planned - go on offense calling on Madigan not to play politics with the right to choose. Never gets a primary. Runs ads against JB all winter. Emerges from primary stronger than ever.

Maybe. But even if all that worked out as planned, he’d still face a tough reelection because of the national headwinds.

The bottom line, though, is Rauner wouldn’t be nearly in such bad shape right now if he hadn’t decided to blow up his own office and campaign staffs last year (twice).

…Adding… Vice News article on the 2014 governor’s race

Over the past year, Quinn has done little to nothing to fix his image, and at 31 percent, Quinn’s job approval numbers trail only Rhode Island chief executive Lincoln Chafee among governors, making him the least-liked incumbent governor facing reelection this fall. […]

“The only thing the [Quinn campaign] can do is try to beat up Bruce Rauner—make him as unattractive as possible,” said Illinois political strategist Patrick Brady, a former chairman of the Illinois Republican Party who has been described as a Rauner supporter. “You haven’t seen any ads on what Pat Quinn is going to do in the next four years… All you’ve seen is ‘Bruce Rauner has horns.’ That’s their whole campaign strategy. They will literally spend tens of millions of dollars trying to convince Illinois voters that Bruce Rauner is evil.” […]

“He’s just not a good governor,” said Brady. “Being governor requires a lot of things. And he just hasn’t shown it. We pay for it and we’re really at a tipping point right now. If we don’t get our fiscal house in order, we are not going to be in a place where we can attract good jobs to keep people here.”

Despite his proclivity for extravagance, Rauner has crafted a campaign that promises much-needed changes on pensions, taxes, and government spending. But like many campaign promises, Rauner’s reforms are non-committal, and will likely be almost impossible to accomplish.

Man, that’s eery.

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